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Thought Experiment: Another High School Outfielder

Here is another Thought Experiment. If you were the parent of the following theoretical player, what would you want him to do?


Jason Silver is a high school outfielder from Birmingham, Alabama. He is an outstanding athlete, with scholarship offers in multiple sports from numerous schools...baseball, basketball, track, and football coaches are all wanting to recruit him. A 6-3, 180 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, his best current skill is speed, rated as a minimum 70 on the 20-80 scale with some scouts giving him an 80 on his best days. He is also wiry-strong and physically projectable; he could easily gain another two inches and 30 pounds on his frame. His only weakish tool is a mediocre throwing arm. 
   He has leadership skills and is a strong point guard in basketball. In football he plays wide receiver. In baseball he spent some time at the middle infield positions as a junior, but moved to center field as a senior and shows gold glove potential as a defender. He is a decent student and has a good reputation for leadership and work ethic. He likes math, and if he goes to college, he wants to major in accounting. 
   Silver has football scholarship offers from Alabama, Auburn, and Florida State. All of those schools will let him play baseball or basketball too if he wants. He has baseball offers from Mississippi, LSU, and Florida; those schools would let him play football and basketball too if he wants. Jason himself is uncommitted; he likes baseball, but he likes the other sports, too. He is considered a pro prospect in the other sports, but most experts regard his baseball potential as the highest professionally. 
    The main problem as a baseball player: his bat is very raw. He has tons of bat speed and can drive the ball when he gets his pitch, but he has big problems with breaking stuff and changeups. In showcases his tools stand out as terrific, but scouts say he will need work getting his swing under control and learning how to handle something other than fastballs. He understands this weakness and is working to correct it, but results so far are mixed and he needs a lot more experience.
    Pro scouts tell you your son's rawness will keep him out of the first and second round, but if signable he could go as high as the third round. It will depend on if he's signable. What do you tell the pro scouts? Do you want Jason in pro ball quickly, or do you want him to go to college, and if so where and in what sports? Jason himself is undecided about his options and will be guided by your advice. The one thing he is adamant on: if he goes to college, he will play at least one other sport besides baseball. Is it better to take the third round money, or is it better to go to college and hope his skills improve enough for him to end up with a higher draft position in three years? 

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He sounds best suited for track and baseball

I’d fear his potential for injury in football, so I’d tell him to play baseball and basketball since track season is the same time as baseball. However, it sounds like he’s equally talented at football so maybe the added weight could benefit him. I would recommend LSU right now out of those schools, but that would be up to him.

Of course, if a team gives him above-slot money, go for it.

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by Daniel Berlyn on May 27, 2025 5:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes.

For above-slot money, absolutely. Go ahead and sign.

by OremLK on May 27, 2025 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

even for slot money

i sign. what with the bird in the hand and all. he is basically guaranteed a small fortune if he is taken in the 3rd round (or even the 4th or 5th round). it would be difficult for me to risk that much money.

by Charlie Scrabbles on May 27, 2025 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

+2

3rd round slot money = $560,000 - $360,000

only a fool would turn that down

by ScottAZ on May 28, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

hmm

Normally, given how raw he is, I’d say he should take the money now, maybe playing a scholarship up into a bigger bonus. But it sounds like he’d like the idea of college and that he’s not mentally ready to give his all to one sport. I’d be worried that he’d get into baseball, struggle for a year or two, and start to doubt himself and wonder what might’ve been in a different sport. Best for him to go to school, get any doubts out of the way . . .you never know, maybe he takes to a different sport better and profiles as a better pro in something else.

Considering that he has a pro career to think of, I don’t think basketball would be a wise choice for him - talent is not at a premium in the NBA, and the attention that he’d spend there would not be to his favor. I’d say baseball and football are good choices. LSU is a pretty natural fit as they have the best baseball program of his options and Les Miles is traditionally very open to two-sport athletes. He’ll probably also benefit from comparisons to Jared Mitchell, a guy with a very similar profile and history . . .Mitchell is left-handed but lacks the same defensive upside.

So, send him to LSU. Chances are quite good he’ll get to play pro sports in some capacity in three years, and he gets the time to figure it out while getting started on his education.

Other guys he reminds me of for various reasons: Brent Brewer, Trayce Thompson

by mrkupe on May 27, 2025 6:34 PM EDT reply actions  

LSU seems like the best fit

good argument. Keep in mind you make a lot more money in baseball than football though.

by Chris Redman is my hero on May 27, 2025 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you have a chance to play basketball, you do it

There is really no comparison between the rewards that come with playing in th NBA compared to any other sport. Less chance of long term injury than football, less time consuming than baseball, and huge guaranteed contracts even for role players. Obviously its the hardest sport to make it in, but if you do you’re set. Plus, there are tons of opportunities to play overseas, earn 6 figures, get everything taken care of by your team, and live like a king.

My issue with sending him to school would be the fact that he’s raw hitting and isn’t going to completely dedicate himself to baseball. Seems like exactly the sort of guy who would likely stall in terms of his bat development at school, probably making him less intriguing by the time he comes out.

Honestly, this seems like a case where I’d push him to play baseball professionally, though possibly push the drafting team to pay him more if they only want him to play baseball. If they don’t, he could still play football in the off-season.

by nixa37 on May 27, 2025 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

does he really want to play baseball?

I mean, I’m sure he enjoys it and works hard at it, but if he’s not going to be happy focusing all his attention on one sport, and he has a lot of work ahead of him at the plate, I’d want him to hedge his bets. It’s not like accounting would be a life of poverty.

I’d tell him to go to LSU, but if not that then definitely one of the other baseball-first schools.

by whichthat on May 27, 2025 6:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Go to college

Play football and baseball. He’ll still get drafted as a Junior in the 3rd round at the latest unless he totally bombs and he’ll still have the NFL as leverage. Scouts will still rave about his tools and as long as he didn’t treat baseball as an off-season from his football obligations he should have improved to the point where he can still get to the majors by age 25. If he can’t hack it in college baseball he’s got the NFL to look forward to and if he’s 25 and toiling in the minors he can go play in the NFL as a 4th/5th receiver and get paid.

by uwbadger on May 27, 2025 6:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Shawn Green/Gabe Kapler

Is he trying to follow in their footsteps?

by BryceHarper on May 27, 2025 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Gabe Gross

not Kapler, of course.

by BryceHarper on May 27, 2025 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Roll Tide

Sounds like this kid has a chance to significantly improve his draft stock, and possibly decide that his future isn’t in baseball, in college. From a personal perspective, I say go to Alabama and play football and baseball, but Im biased on that. Better decision would probably be LSU for baseball/basketball, as the injury risk is lower. Depends on the campus/coaches and how he feels.

by ADLC on May 27, 2025 8:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd tell him...

if he really wants to do baseball, start in professional baseball. This puts his focus on one sport and hopefully he can excel. If it doesn’t pan out, he can head back to college a couple of years later.
If he’s undecided, get to college and figure it out.

by sdangler on May 27, 2025 10:12 PM EDT reply actions  

This is a good point

With the money from his signing bonus he could easily go to college later, the only real questions then become

a) Does he really think he likes another sport better

and

b) How likely is it that he would make more money, compared to the likelihood that he would make less (or none) by skipping the opportunity to sign?

by OremLK on May 28, 2025 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sign and play

I would advise him to sign and play. Worst case, he gets hurt ending his athletic career, but has some money to fall back on and a good head on his shoulders to enroll in school.

Second worse, he’s a baseball bust…his tools don’t turn til skills in 2-3 years at all…he can back up and still attend college and play a different sport (Chris Weinke style) if he’s still interested and maintained his athleticism.

Or, he makes a career of baseball…be it a career minor league, role bench player, average starter, or a star. I just think that signing and focusing on baseball early gives him the best opportunity to succeed, while still leaving him with solid backup plans/money if the need arises.

by BobbyS on May 27, 2025 11:09 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on May 28, 2025 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

It depends...

Even if his ceiling in baseball is higher than football and basketball, what kind of a ceiling would he have in those two sports? Would he be drafted if he declared for the NBA or NFL? If so, where? I’ll operate under the assumption that he could play himself into the first round in baseball and could be drafted in basketball or football, but the money wouldn’t be as good.

I’d tell teams that he would be signable in the third round, but only if teams were willing to go above slot; say in the $500k-$700k range. Otherwise, I’d encourage him to go to college to play baseball and basketball. Football is too much of an injury risk, especially if he’s going to be a kick returner (which strikes me as really likely). I like Florida and Ole Miss in terms of their baseball and basketball programs, so I’d push him to go to either.

by Outshined_One on May 27, 2025 11:53 PM EDT reply actions  

NBA/NFL

NBA and NFL draft expectations would be pure speculation since he couldn’t declare himself or either until after attending college. I think it’s clear he has pro potential in all three, but only baseball currently offers him any kind of financial certainty.

by BobbyS on May 28, 2025 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

College

His value is far lower than it could very plausibly be in 3 years. He’s a raw athlete who could become a primo prospect in any of three sports and values the education he’d receive in college. The difference between second round money and top 10 money is tremendous; go for the jackpot while backing up your investment with continued involvement in other sports.

http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/

by Conjunction on May 28, 2025 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Pro

Third round money is still a good amount of money.

And he should be able to get better coaching a develop better in a professional development system. He would be playing more often, training with professional coaches whose goals are developing a baseball player instead of winning games.

The potential payout if things go really well are substantial in college, but if he tears up his knee playing basketball or football or if he just underperforms, then you possibly would get a lot less money.

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain

by JM Barten on May 28, 2025 8:52 AM EDT reply actions  

He seems like he's in a win-win-win situation

If he can go over-slot for 500k to 1M, then that’s a pretty good starting point to anybody’s career, even if he washes out and has to go back to school.
But if he thinks he’ll regret not having the opportunity to play NCAA basketball/football/track, then he can go to college and enjoy his college career while hopefully honing his baseball skills and/or becoming a prospect in a different sport.
And if luck turns against him b/c of injury or he just can’t quite cut it as a pro prospect, then he’s got what sounds like an academic and career plan that he would enjoy to fall back on.

So my advice would be that the bird in the hand is certainly better than two in the bush (as others have noted), but he also should follow what he really thinks will make him happy, even if that means leaving some money on the table.

Would you like to follow me on Twitter, Facebook, or my blog...well you can't.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 28, 2025 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

John

make this more difficult of a decision by making him a 10th round pick or something. As it is, only a fool would turn down 3rd round money. How is a kid from Birmingham going to turn down $400,000?

by ScottAZ on May 28, 2025 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

wait

There will be more difficult ones coming up.

by John Sickels on May 28, 2025 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Baseball

With his speed, he has a Homer Bush-esque floor and a Jacoby Ellsbury (yes? or not enough power for the description?)-esque expectation. If he needs help with his swing, I’m not sure how sending him to hit with metal bats in college is good. I, too, would worry about his ability to hold up in football (which is, clearly, his third-best sport), and there’s more of a learning curve to being a PG than any position on the diamond (except catcher—maybe), so he should really go in the draft now.

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on May 28, 2025 6:59 PM EDT reply actions  


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