And I don’t need long to think about it. Chapman, strictly on ceiling, is probably the best prospect in the game; having probably the fastest fastball ever on top of a wipeout slider, from a lefty no less, tends to do that. But, I think it’s at least a coinflip whether he makes it as an SP or settles in “just” as Billy Wagner 2.0.

His control is adequate at this stage given his stuff, but I’ve never noticed him hit his target within the zone on anything close to a regular basis. No real third pitch at this point, though maybe he won’t need anything more than a show-me change with what he has in the fastball and slider. Lot of moving parts in the delivery, and often tipped his slider with a different arm slot from what I could tell; I don’t really see any injury risk flags, but do think it may hinder him maintaining his mechanics, adding to the command issues.

So many things still have to come together for Chapman as an SP, whereas Hellickson has no real holes and is probably around a #3 already, with the total package needed to become a championship level frontliner. Pitchers are volatile enough as is, gotta go with Hellickson given the enormous discrepancy in floor/median outcome.

Hellickson, Chapman or Teheran!

Hellickson - Greg Maddux Comp
Chapman - Randy Johnson Comp
Teheran - Pedro Martinez Comp

I understand that he is further away from the big leagues but when you are talking about purely the best pitching prospect then he has to be put into the conversation.

Maddux had a carrer ERA+ of 132
Johnson had a career ERA+ if 136

I’m saying Hellickson because he’ll likely be healthier.

If you have a chance to take a comparable to Greg Maddux, you have to take him every day of the week. No doubt. Randy was one of the greatest of his era, but Maddux is a strong argument for best ever.

That being said, I am not sure if either comp is anything but hyperbole.

He has 2 of the best pitches I have ever seen…
Throwing a 90’s slider… did Randy ever do that?
Plus, consider that earlier in the season, Chapman was throwing harder as the game went on. If he could dial it back to maybe 97 and throw strikes, he can reach back for 100+ late in games.

but that’s not what you asked of us. Chapman is the better prospect. I would rather have Hellickson. My gut tells me Chapman won’t become Cuban RJ, rather he’ll become Cuban Kerry Wood. (I’m not making a comparison other than, he’ll either have an arm blowout or be a reliever or both)

If he reaches his ceiling, he will be throwing harder than RJ and being healthier, thus having an even higher ceiling than RJ. We are talking ceiling here, the odds of that happening are less than 1%, but if it happens, he will have the best stretch ever as a pitcher.
Hellickson on the other hand has a lower ceiling, i don’t even think its GM, but the odds of him getting there are 50-50.
Again, based on ceiling Chapman is by far the best pitching prospect but if you have to make a decision based on Expected Value (ceiling weighted by the odds of getting there) the indisputable answer is Hellickson.

Tough call, John. I’m pretty fond of Hellickson. On the other hand, Chapman is a great example of why ARE (age relative to experience) and ERL (experience relative to league) are much better tools for player evaluation than the outdated ARL (age relative to league).

I’ll simply say that if you’re picking between these two, it’s got to be Hellickson.

Dude’s just built to be a pitcher. He’s got the look of a horse. When a lefty has an arm that guys like John Sickels say has legit Randy Johnson upside, he’s the best pitcher in baseball.

1) I think he’s a better bet to stay healthy. I don’t believe any human arm can throw 105 without blowing itself out.

2) Even if Chapman does end up as a starter, I think his control will hold him back. Hellickson’s amazing control should allow him to consistently pitch deep into games. I think Chapman is more likely to be a six inning pitcher.

3) I really dig control guys.