He broke 100 a few times as a starter back in 2007. Now he maxes out between 97 and 98 and is a better pitcher.

If Aroldis does the same, it might benefit him and from the left side with a bit more velocity he could be dominant too.

Maddux was outstanding, and he never threw very hard. Lincecum was arguably the best in baseball in 08-09 with declining velo. I realize that it’s better to have great velo than not, but there’s more to getting batters out than just throwing hard, especially if he’s going to be a starter.

I’d actually say he has more experience against legit competition than Teheran does. Teheran is 3 years younger and has just 30 starts above rookie ball.

Yeah, I agree that Chapman’s stuff looks awesome right now as a closer, but its not going to be as sharp when he’s starting and the lack of a third pitch could hold him back. Don’t undersell Teheran’s stuff either. He’s got a mid 90’s fastball along with a curve and change that at the very least flash plus. I think he’s got just as much upside as any pitcher in the minors. Guys with his sort of stuff are still certainly capable of being the best pitcher in baseball.

Leaving out injuries right now, I think Chapman’s floor is closer, while Teheran’s might be just a good relief arm. However, I think there might be a 30% chance that he ends up a closer, 20% he ends up something like Daniel Cabrera with a faster FB, 20% he ends up a good 2/3, 15% he ends up a 1/2, 10% he ends up a true ace, and 5% he ends up the best pitcher in baseball (all are WAGs of course). Teheran I see more along the lines of 20% reliever, 20% 3 to 5 starter, 25% 2/3, 25% 1/2, and 10% legit ace (again WAGs to show how Chapman might have a higher ceiling and floor, but lower median outcomes).

I really don’t see how thinking Teheran has the better chance of being a good starter than Chapman because of his change up and command is nitpicking…those are 2 pretty important things for a starter to have.

Chapman’s stuff would be better than Teheran’s in the bullpen and Chapman’s stuff means his perfect world projection is Randy Johnson in his prime, but I think Teheran is a much better bet to be a good to great starter because of his pitch mix and command.

Ignore the labels on it. Think of the height as probability of that outcome with outcomes to the right being better. I think Chapman’s more like B (though not that high of a probability at the left end) and Teheran is more like C. B has the higher floor and ceiling, but A is more likely to be the better player.

Anyone else?

was basically FB/slider for a lot of his career wasn’t he? If anyone is going to get by with two pitches it’s the guy with the high 90s FB and the bowel-locking slider. It would take above average command for it to work.

Not to say that Chapman can’t learn more, but he’s probably going to need another one or significantly better command. He’s probably one of the few guys who could get away with 2 pitches, but he probably needs to be able to locate them better than he does right now.