Community Prospect #22
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 5:58 PM EST
287 comments
With 45.6% of the vote, Logan Morrison is elected Community Prospect #21.
1. Jason Heyward - 51%
2. Stephen Strasburg - 76%
3. Buster Posey - 20% (43% runoff)
4. Michael Stanton - 20% (54% runoff)
5. Jesus Montero - 20% (45% runoff)
6. Brian Matusz - 21%
7. Pedro Alvarez - 23%
8. Desmond Jennings - 29%
9. Carlos Santana -37% (50% runoff)
10. Neftali Feliz -37% (50% runoff)
11. Justin Smoak - 46%
12. Domonic Brown - 23% (59% runoff)
13. Madison Bumgarner - 30%
14. Martin Perez - 28%
15. Dustin Ackley - 31%
16. Chris Carter - 33.6%
17. Jeremy Hellickson - 29.4%
18. Michael Taylor - 36.9%
19. Alcides Escobar - 37.0%
20. Christian Friedrich - 29.0%(53.2% runoff)
Players will get 2 rounds on the poll as a tester, if they fail to draw 5% in those polls they will then be removed and sit out up to 3 rounds.
Players off the poll(will sit out up to 3 rounds): Ike Davis(#21-1.3%), Matt Moore(#20-0.0%), Freddie Freeman(#20-0.9%), Jenrry Mejia(#20-1.8%), Casey Kelly(#19-2.8%, Kyle Drabek(#19-0.9%), Brett Wallace(#19-0.9%)
Tester pool: Yonder Alonso, Ike Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Wade Davis, Dan Hudson, Dee Gordon, Casey Crosby, Tyler Matzek, Jordan Lyles, Hector Rondon, Jhoulys Chacin, Derek Norris, Jake Arrieta
The candidates with previous round vote %:
Jordan Lyles 1.3%
Aaron Hicks 1.3%
Dan Hudson 5.0%
Wade Davis 3.8%
Aroldis Chapman 16.5%
Starlin Castro 1.3%
Lonnie Chisenhall 6.3%
Yonder Alonso 5.0%
Ryan Westmoreland 12.7%
Over 130 AB/50 IP cutoff for eligibility
Please vote using the +1 system, not the rec system. Rec'd votes will not be counted in this poll, only actual posts with +1.
5 recs |
287 comments
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Vote with a +1 here for Jordan Lyles
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:11 PM EST reply actions 10 recs
go back to the poll
Im not voting anymore, tired of having to go thru hundreds of threads to find the guy i am looking for. I bet you alot of people arent voting for this reason.
by LawBe on Jan 11, 2026 8:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
psh, its not that hard, at all...
I think we’ll live
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you mean
I don’t have to try and figure out where your +1 is supposed to go, or if you really mean to vote for Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland when you vote for both? Sounds good to me.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Dee Gordon
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:11 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Aaron Hicks
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:11 PM EST reply actions 8 recs
+1
I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B
than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 10, 2026 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Fernando Martinez
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:12 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
+1
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects
by ravensfan3 on Jan 10, 2026 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
by koolkerns101 on Jan 10, 2026 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
by Evan_S on Jan 10, 2026 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Jan 10, 2026 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Dan Hudson
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:12 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Wade Davis
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:13 PM EST reply actions 11 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Aroldis Chapman
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:13 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
+1
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 10, 2026 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Again, would a team sign any of these other prospects for 5/25?
by The Colonel on Jan 10, 2026 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 11, 2026 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
There’s risk here for sure, but given his stuff, he’s a lefty, and he’s going to debut in AA, I think he’s got the as good a ceiling and is more advanced than anyone on the board. Inconsistency of stuff, and the Cuban stigma are concerns, but everyone on the board has some dings.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 11, 2026 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does Chapman rank above davis, exactly?
This isn’t directed at beastball specifically, but at all the +1s. Davis is major league ready with considerable upside. Chapman’s not throwing 100 - he’s at 92-94 in workouts. He may have more ultimate upside, but Davis is as close to a lock to be at least a solid middle of the rotation guy as it gets, and he’s got the potential for more.
by slamcactus on Jan 11, 2026 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just weigh risk vs upside...
I’ve never been that convinced of Davis’ upside honestly. BA lists it as a #2, which sounds good to me. And I won’t argue he’s got a good combination of acceptable upside and lesser risk.
But to me Chapman is a the rarer commodity, and is pretty close to the majors considering starting at AA. Sure, he’s in the mid-90s, as a lefty, without the benefit of pro instruction, that alone is impressive to me. Maybe he gets that high-90s stuff with time, or maybe it settles mid-90s, but still mid-90s as a left is rare.
So yeah, there are a bunch of higher ceiling guys on the list who I’d probably list over Davis, like Hicks and Westmoreland, and Chapman is just one more of those.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 11, 2026 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t consider Davis to be a lock for a mid rotation guy at all, and I’m a Rays fan. Fact is he has been pretty inconsistent in the high minors, a small sample size in the majors last year isn’t going to make me overlook any of that.
by hybrid on Jan 11, 2026 8:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Velocity isnt really in question
Youre talking about one time - a workout for teams in the offseason when he wasnt on a throwing program.
We actually have PitchFX data from the WBC. Like most Cubans, he changes speeds a lot and mixes in different pitches, so PitchFX has a hard time with him, but his Max Velocity was clocked at 100.2mph on 3/15 vs Japan.
by alskor on Jan 11, 2026 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing...
about throwing arms, particularly ones that light up radar guns to the tune of 100mph, is they tend to break down and velocity tends to disappear. Until I see a present-day report of Chapman throwing anywhere near that hard, I’ll consider him a very good live arm, but not an excellent prospect. Players who light up the radar guns and don’t have good secondary pitches really aren’t as rare as you’d think. I’m actually kind of amused by just how similar the scouting reports are for Aroldis Chapman and Jesse Hahn (understanding that Hahn’s a righty and therefore inherently less valuable).
by slamcactus on Jan 11, 2026 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is risk associated with a pitching prospect...
of any kind, so I agree with you there, but what makes Chapman different than other live arms for me is that they project him to start in AA, so he’s clearly more advanced than most drafted arms. As I said, if he stays mid-90s, that is rare for a lefty, and indicates possible excellence.
Sure I can find lots of guys lighting up the gun, and smaller portion of those are lefties, but even a smaller portion of those are thought to be able to handle AA right now, and that’s what makes Chapman a prospect worthy of a slot around here.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 11, 2026 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Jan 11, 2026 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Curious when Brett Wallace will show up.
A lot of analysts thought the swap was pretty even it is not looking like this site agrees at all.
Another interesting thing will be to see how many votes Chapman gets from Reds fans today.
by throttle mathius on Jan 10, 2026 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brett Wallace was on polls #18 and #19
and got very few votes. He will be back on later.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Ryan Westmoreland
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 6:19 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jan 10, 2026 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote here with a +1 for Starlin Castro
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:19 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
Vote with a +1 for Lonnie Chisenhall
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:20 PM EST reply actions 8 recs
+1
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Jan 11, 2026 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a guy...
whose reputation I really don’t understand. I’ve never seen Chisenhall play, but the bat’s only been so-so at this point and the defensive reputation is nothing to write home about. He must have one hell of a sweet swing to get scouts and fans this excited.
Nothing against anyone here who’s voting for CHisenhall: all the major prospecting outlets glow about the guy and I have no doubt he’ll end up ranking right around here when BA and BP release their lists, but my personal information filter just doesn’t get the Chisenhall love.
by slamcactus on Jan 11, 2026 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He does have one hell of a sweet swing
One scout classified Chisenhall’s swing as “the prettiest I saw all year,” and with good reason. It’s simple and smooth; the barrel of the bat enters the hitting zone quickly and stays there a long time. He has above average pull power, but he also knows how to turn on pitches.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9784
His defense is actually good, probably ends up plus. He switched to 3B from SS in the spring, after all. I know Ive said it before, but he was really rushed to AA - its his first full season and he was drafed as an 18 year old from a junior college (this was his age 19 season). So I wouldnt put a whole lot of emphasis on his AA performance or his error totals (which, as we know, high error totals in the minors actually correlate well with good defense in the future.). His defense got much better as the year went on, too, and he learned his new position.
by alskor on Jan 11, 2026 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense...
I’ve never heard anyone call him a plus defender. BA noted his struggles and high error count. Hardly glowing. Worked his way up to adequate is more accurate from everything I’ve read.
by slamcactus on Jan 12, 2026 2:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A shortstop throughout his amateur career, he looked surprisingly comfortable at third base in 2009. He showed good reactions, soft hands, and a solid arm.
(notably also lists nothing about defense in his “The Bad” section)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9784
On Lonnie Chisenhall’s defense: “He made I think about 18 errors the first two months of the season, and if you watched him play you would never believe it because it looked like it was so easy at third base. What it was is he was learning his limits. He always played shortstop and he was learning what [the third base] position entailed, what plays he could make, and what plays he should just eat the ball or let the shortstop get. What that meant is because he is aggressive and confident he learned on the aggressor side and made errors. I think once he learned those limits we saw a significant drop off in the errors. Actually in the last two months after the first two months he only had two errors until [recently]. Those numbers are indicative in what we were seeing. He is exceptional at third base and is going to be an above average defender in my opinion.”
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/article_detail.php?blgId=4972
Here is BA:
Trevor (Smithson, OH): Lonnie Chisenhall had an outstanding year. What are your thoughts on him moving into next year and does he have enough defence to stick at third. Great work as always!
Ben Badler: I think almost everyone who saw Chisenhall this year was a fan, especially of his swing. The defensive reports I have on him are conflicting, though the ones that called him below-average defensively came in the beginning of the year while the ones that said he’s playable over there were from guys who saw him later in the season, so that’s probably a good sign. His errors definitely went down as the season progressed, for whatever that’s worth.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2009/268864.html
I really see no reason to think he won’t be a plus 3B despite BA’s incredulity. He has all the tools to do so. In fact, this time last year the Indians coaches were talking about how his defense at SS had improved and he might stay there (he did not).
Again, for people questioning the defense and statistical profile - his tools all point to the ability to be very good at the things you’re questioning. I see a regular .300 hitter with 20-25 HRs and above average defense at 3B. You cant look at his season without remembering that this was his first full pro season, he made a position switch and learned 3B as he went, he raked at A+ and far exceeded expectations, he made it all the way to AA, and he was one of the handful of youngest players at that level. Plus, scouts absolutely adore the guy.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Yonder Alonso
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:21 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 10, 2026 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on Jan 11, 2026 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 and a name for anyone not on the poll
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:21 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Kyle Drabek
+1
I know he fell off the poll, but he’s been off for what will be the 3rd round.
Drabek’s easily top 25 material IMO.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Jan 10, 2026 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm with you
and i think he’s coming back on next poll or at worst the one after.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I’d vote him in over Chapman, Hicks, Lyles, Alonso, and Chisenhall
probably. Unless, of course, someone convinced me otherwise.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Suggest tester names here
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 6:21 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Josh Bell
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects
by ravensfan3 on Jan 10, 2026 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
brett lawrie should start getting consideration around 25-30 ?
by giantdonkey on Jan 10, 2026 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it is a little early for Bell with Chisenhall still available.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I’d rather Matt Dominguez than Bell as well. I know John only rated Dominguez a B, but I don’t see him any lower than a B+ honestly. Excellent defense, improving plate discipline, good power.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed completley
going to stick at third and I feel the bat will stick due to the power. Despite the lackluster offensive season, the plate discipline, most peoples’ biggest concern, improved, I really like him. Considering the amount of players we have up for consideration either as testers or on the board already, I think his time may come come soon. I think I’ll have him between 40-60.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Simon Castro?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
or even
Tanner Scheppers
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
WAY too early for me
Talented as hell, but I think he’s a reliever (and one with serious health questions), he gets downgraded big time.
by jar75 on Jan 10, 2026 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if you view him as an RP
he’s nowhere close. But I [for some unknown reason] have a hunch that he sticks as a SP for 7 or 8 years, and then moves to the pen.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
Tanner Scheppers wasn’t even drafted until pick #44 in the draft. Some of that had to do with signability concerns, and whatnot, but if he’s really a top-25 prospect, he wouldn’t slip that far.
by cr1578 on Jan 10, 2026 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes he would
He had the second best stuff in the draft behind Strasburg.
Signability was one issue, but health was an even bigger one.
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Signability
I disagree with that, he really didn’t have much leverage. What was he going to do, go back and pitch another year of Indy ball? Go to Japan?
by jar75 on Jan 10, 2026 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
-He had shown he was willing to sit out rather than take a supbar deal
-His eventual signing bonus with Texas set a record for most ever given to a supplemental 1st rounder
-Because he was drafted previously, he was not subject to the Aug. 17th deadline to sign
Still, I agree, injury concerns probably had more to do with where he was drafted…
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can anybody give me
a quick scouting report on Simon Castro? I’m wondering if I have him too low on my own list.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is what I have
Tall, big body, room to fill out. 3 Pitch Pitcher, uses all three pitches well. Low-Mid 90s fastball, low-mid 80s straight change which supposedly has some nice sink, and a low 80s slider.
His two big questions were his ability to repeat his delivery with his body, and his ability to exhibit control consistently. He seems to have put everything together this past year, as his K:BB rate nearly doubled. Seemingly he wont run into issues of only having two pitches, and given his consistently low home-run rate and body size he will probably draw a decent amount of grounders at the major league level. Some negatives are that he isn’t necessarilly young as he pitched the entire year in A ball as a 21 year old.
Overall, the stuff projects #1/#2, and worst case, if the control doesn’t fall apart, he is a relatively safe bet (when compared with other prospects at his level) to make a serviceable major leaguer.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Castro
Elite defense with the chance to hit for a high OBP.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 10, 2026 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a little high for Kurt Suzuki-type in my opinion
do people think power will come, though?
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He is better than Suzuki
That is a good floor comp though.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kurt Suzuki is terribly underrated
and I see more evidence of that all the time.
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THIS.
There really aren’t that many starting catchers who give you 140+ games started at catcher with league average bats.
And Zooks’ bat is league average when you adjust for the park he plays in. He shouldn’t be punished for the park he plays in.
And, of course, he’s one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Ups his value even more.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Jan 11, 2026 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
You think Castro’s floor is a 3 win player? He should have been on the list in the top 10 then.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
floor doesn’t take into account fail rate. if he makes it as a pro, it would be very surprising if he was much worse than suzuki. that is what is meant by floor.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that is quite his floor though.
I think he’ll have a bit less power, but he will probably have a slightly higher OBP. I think they’re very similar, but that doesn’t even take into account Suzuki’s absolutley great defensive reputation (Castro’s is very good as well). I think Suzuki is a nice mid-range comp. I just don’t see much upside to be that much better than a Suzuki. In his peak season may put up .310/.370/.430, but I’d guess something closer to .290/.350/.400 which, when paired with good defense at catcher is a very good player, just not a great one.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if that would surprise you, you would be even more surprised to find that Kurt Suzuki was the 5th most valuable catcher in the game last year
bested only by Mauer, VMart (part time catcher, at that), McCann and Yadier Molina.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and that is with a neutral adjustment for defense, while Suzuki is generally regarded as one of the better defensive catchers.
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 8:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think Castro
is the best defensive catcher in the minors of the ones that can hit enough to possibly make it as semi-regulars. only posey is there with him.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Suzuki is one of the best if not the best defensive catcher in the majors
at best it is a push in that regard
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fine
i accept that. i think someone else was giving suzuki the edge there, and i’m just not sure he has a defensive edge. he might i guess, but castro is considered a good defender.
maybe suzuki isn’t his floor. maybe castro could make it and be a little worse, but not significantly worse. i believe he has the chance to develop into someone significantly better (though not tremendously better). if i were in charge of the astros, i would not trade Castro for Suzuki right now, forgetting the salary issues.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow, thats interesting. I thought I was pretty high on him, although I suppose I'm very high on Suzuki as well.
If Suzuki was older I probably would rather have Castro, but given Suzuki’s still relative young age and his recent power surge when combined with his defensive reputation I think even he has potential to develop some more.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I see them as somewhat similar
But I could see Castro hitting .290 with a .370 OBP with 20 HR power by the time he is Suzuki’s age. It would be very very optimistic to project a .290/20 season for Suzuki in the next year or two, and crazy to project .370 for an OBP. that is the kind of reasonable upside advantage Castro has on him. But when he is Suzuki’s age, if Castro ends up hitting .270 with a .335 OBP and 12 HR which is about the expectation for Suzuki, that is going to be a tad disappointing. Which is what I meant by floor. He could be worse, and still make it as a regular, but I think he has solidly better upside.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This clears things up alot for me.
First off, your definition of floor is different than mine so that makes a difference. Secondly, you are very, very high on Castro. Seriously if that is what you think he is capable of I don’t know how you wouldn’t rank him as a top 10 prospect, or damn near it. You basically described Brian McCann’s 2009 season, one that was worth 4.4 wins without D taken into account.
How much better numbers do you expect from guys like Santana and Posey if that’s what you think Castro can do? I’m not sure Castro will hit much better than Suzuki did this year(.274/.313/.421). I can see a higher OBP for Castro, maybe a line of .280/.350/.430 but not a lot higher than that honestly.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe i have a different definition of ceiling too
i wouldn’t bet on castro getting there, but i think there is a good 25% chance he gets there. i’d give suzuki a 5% chance at best.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Suzuki has a 0% chance to reach that, maybe less than zero
but I don’t know what that has to do with what we’re talking about here.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
we are talking about upside/ceiling. i was very clear that my projections were reasonable upside/ceiling projections. you don’t think suzuki has any shot of those numbers outside a miracle. i basically agree. i think castro has a 20-25% chance of peaking out around there.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't be a dissapointment but it would be less produciton than hes given each of the past 3 years
when Suzuki wasn’t hitting for power he was walking at a more reasonable clip (about 50 walks per year). It seems that he made that trade off while realizing the ramifications.
A more reasonable average for Suzuki is .280/.340/.420 with 12 HRs and great defense. That is what I expect from Castro, but Suzuki is doing it right now. Sure, Castro has the potential to have a season, like I said, of .310/.380/.450 or so, but, because he is younger, he could also flame out.
I think they’re an interesting comparison, and while Castro may be better, he may also be worse, and I take Suzuki because he is the proven commodity and he is still young.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those are sort of high end projections
For Suzuki. He had a .313 OBP last season. But even if he does put up those numbers which is possible, I’d still expect a little more from Castro. I posted my expectation elsewhere .285/.350/.435. That is what I expect. He could be better, could flame out, could end up just like Suzuki or slightly worse.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the .340 OBP is probably a little high if he maintains that sort of power, but .330 isn't out of the realm of possibility.
I agree with Gatling, though, if you expect that line out of Castro then he should probably be in the top 15.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that is just off to me.
i’d take my chances with a top 50 or so catcher over suzuki. if he is in the top 15, he better be as good as Santana. no way do people expect 285/350/435 from Santana.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Zooks had a .346 OBP in 2008
but he sacrificed some plate discipline for power in 2009. I’ve had a couple of posts that disappeared, but in one I said I could see Suzuki with a .275/.340/.430 line as a peak but that I can’t expect more than that and even then I think this line is optimistic.
The original line auclairkeithbc threw out for Castro was .290/.370 with 20 HR. I did some quick calcuations and based on reasonable numbers otherwise his triple slash ended up around .290/.370/.460, that line with plus D behind the plate would have to rank pretty damn high. This .285/.350/.435 line he’s now using would rank a good bit lower, probably around 40-50 for me.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THAT LINE WAS HIS CEILING
you need to pay attention!!!!!
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said it over and over
That was his ceiling!!! Although I was using ceiling to mean 75th-80th percentile.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You said
that Castro had a 25% or so chance to post the line of .290/.370 and 20 HR. Now all of a sudden you’re using a line of .285/..350/.435 and saying I called that the line of a top 10 prospect. That’s not what happened here.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
again, not what i am saying.
I said 20-25% chance of 290/370 and 20. You said if someone has that kind of chance for that kind of line, they are a top 10 prospect.
I said I think Santana (#10 ish) has a much better than 20-25% chance of reaching those numbers. I expected you to say, Santana would be lucky to get those numbers. But you agreed that Santana had even higher upside than that.
Basically, you are saying Santana’s upside is good enough for 10th, but my projection for Castro’s UPSIDE is also good for top 10 even though it is much much lower than your upside projection for Santana.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever you say man
If you had used the numbers .285/.350/.435 from the beginning, you know 4 hours ago, there would be many, many fewer posts here. You said originally 25% chance he reaches the .290/.370 20 HR line, which as you explained your definition of ceiling I’d look at this as his 75th percentile. Which means by my definition of ceiling, there is more to project for him. So yes, a catcher with above average D and a ceiling higher than .290/.370 20 HR would rank close to Santana and Posey for me. But that guy apparently isn’t what you think Castro is, so using this new line of .285/.350/.435, yeah he gets downgraded a lot.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't win an argument
By setting up a strawman and attacking it.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
given Suzuki's age I wouldn't be surprised if he had a synthesis of plate discipline in power, which he has shown seperatley at different time over his career
I’m high on him, though.
I think if anything were going to be higher with Castro it would be his average. I could see him going .310/.380/.440 as a peak (I know, I keep chaging it), but, more than likely, I think he will slug a bit lower and his average will be a bit higher.
I guess, overall, I don’t see this 20 home run potential that has been alluded to, but I believe in the contact ability as I trust his strike zone judgement which is evidenced by his very good K/BB rate.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right
i don’t expect the 20HR to come. i just think it is in the realm of reasonable possibilities maybe 20% chance he peaks out there. that is all i ever said. my expectations are around 15 HR like i’ve said.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough. I'd say it breaks down like this, for me, with his power
0 HRs - 99%
3 HRs - 95%
5 HRs - 80%
8 HRs - 65%
12 HRs - 45%
15 HRs - 25%
20 HRs - 10%
22 HRs - 5%
25 HRs - 1%
This factors in the fact that he may not stick in the majors.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
i guess i’m just a little more optimistic about the power. i’d say 80% for 8 HR (if he sticks he will get at least 8), 65% for 12 HR, 45% 15 HR, 18% 20 HR, 10% 22 HR, 3% 25 HR
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right here
you’re changing numbers again. It’s gone from 25% to 20% to 18% for Castro to hit 20 HR throughout the various posts in this discussion. You can’t expect my comments from 4 hours ago to match up to something you posted 20 minutes ago if the numbers change.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said 20-25%
That is what I had been saying. I did move it to 18% but it is hardly relevant. I almost kept it at 20% just so you wouldn’t try hinging your entire argument on 2% likelihood, but I decided to lower it by 2% anyway and hope for the best.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not changing the numbers
i’ve said ceiling and upside the whole time with the 290/370 20HR projection. it was 20-25% to begin with yes. i have reduced it to 18% but that doesn’t change him from a clear top 10 guy to at 40-50 guy.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You win, I give up
I’m not wasting anymore time on a discussion that has this many twists and turns in it.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
there is a fairly big dropoff after the first three. but i think castro will be one of those 2nd tier catcher types. i guess i’d say suzuki will drop a bit in the rankings once Santana, Posey, Castro (and Norris if he stays at C) enter the league.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Castro
I don’t think outside of catastrophic injury there isn’t much chance that Castro doesn’t make it to the bigs. So I again say, if you really think that Castro is basically assured of being at least a 3 win player he should have been on way before now. I just don’t even know what to think here.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
That would mean you think Suzuki is just as valuable a commodity as Santana and probably very close to Posey if not equal (don’t know your specific ranking of those 2).
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
isn't the projection of those 2 to be higher than 3 wins?
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not according to gatling
the said if Castro is as good as Suzuki, he should be in the top 10.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the more i think about it
castro needs to be considered fairly soon. i don’t know why i thought he end up a lot lower on my list. i think consideration around pick 30 makes sense, if norris is off the board that is (and he should be by 30).
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Norris?
Bud Norris? top-30 prospect? N
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
N=
No way
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh thanks
I thought you were going with the whole Astros thing. Derek Norris should start being considered around 30
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fine.
my point was the highest spot i’d even think we could consider castro would be around 30, but that he should be after derek norris. comparing catching prospects. he wouldn’t have to be too far behind him necessarily though, depending on how soon norris gets put on the list.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the difference between them is the defense. Is Norris supposed to stick at catcher?
If there are questions of him moving off then I think that makes Castro the better prospect.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Norris
is in the 30-40 range honestly, because he’s not a sure thing to stick behind the plate. If he projected to be an average catcher I’d have him in the top 20, maybe top 15 even. He’s got a very good bat that should play at 1B even if he can’t stay behind the plate. That’s why I have him in the 30-40 range, hedging my bets between him catching and playing 1B.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i probably agree with that
i thought top 30, but 30-40 is probably better. and i think castro should be after that. consideration might be reasonable at 30 though for castro. he shouldn’t make the list until after norris in my opinion.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is where I think I'll have him when I get around to my lists as well
but I’d have Castro ahead of him, not by much though.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, no clue where you got that from
I think Santana and Posey have higher ceilings with the bat than what Suzuki has done, much higher honestly. I also think they’ll both be above average defensively, can’t say they’ll be much more than that though it’s too early tell if they can make the adjustments to be elite defensively. What I did say was if you think Castro is basically assured of being at least as good as Suzuki(what floor means to most people) but with more potential(this is where ceiling comes in) then yes, I would think you’d rank him close to the top ten because you think he’s basically a top 5 catcher even if he doesn’t put it altogether completely. I put my expected line for Castro in a reply above here, but it’s safe to say you are much, much higher on Castro than I am. Based on the numbers you expect from him I don’t see how you wouldn’t have him right there with Posey and Santana. I wouldn’t do that mind you, not even close, but based on what you expect….one would figure he’d have to be that high.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
again...
i don’t expect a lot better than suzuki. i expect he won’t be noticeably worse than suzuki (a .268, .335, hitter with 10 HR is only a very slight downgrade from suzuki). i can’t see him going far below that without being considered a huge failure.
i do think he is capable of putting up the numbers i suggested. maybe 25%. maybe 20% i don’t know. worse case scenario, other than a total flop, he ends up being right in suzuki’s ballpark. best reasonable case scenario, he ends up being a .290ish .370ish 20ish HR hitter.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So I'll ask again
What do you expect Posey and Santana to do in their “best reasonable case”, because I think it would be optimistic to project them much higher than what you’re suggesting for Castro. You’re projecting him to be around an .850 OPS bat with plus defense in his best case scenario. Are you expecting 900+ OPS numbers from Santana and Posey?
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes.
Again, i am not EXPECTING a 900+ OPS just like i am not expecting an 825-850 OPS for Castro. But I wouldn’t be shocked if that happened. You obviously think it would take a near miracle for those 2 to put up seasons near 900 OPS or Castro a season between 825 and 850. I think it is a lot more likely than a total miracle. That is ceiling as I’ve always understood it. Something reasonably possible that wouldn’t really shock people if it happened, but that no one could reasonably expect (unless a player has a ridiculously tight ceiling and floor).
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ceiling, at least to me(and I think alot of people honestly),
is ultimate upside. Best case scenario, hands down. Yes, I think it would be a near miracle if Castro posted an 850 OPS consistently. I think he’ll be lucky to post an 800 OPS on average, I see him in the 750-780 range. I’m not sold on his power at all, it’s been mostly non-existent outside of the Lancaster launching pad.
As for Santana and Posey, no I don’t think it would take a miracle for them to post OPS numbers around .900, but they’re ranked 5th and 11th on my list respectively.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok then
We actually have a similar definition of ceiling i think. Its about as high end as you can go without banking on a near miracle.
You think a 900 OPS is around the reasonable ceiling for Posey/Santana and I agree. I think an 825-850 OPS is around the reasonable ceiling for Castro. You disagree, and think it would take a shocking near miracle for him to do that.
Either way, projecting an above average defensive catcher to have an upside of 825-850 OPS and a decently high floor doesn’t put him in the top 10. It might not put him in the top 30, but like I said, he could be considered around that point, though I think Derek Norris is a slightly better prospect and should make it before Castro.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this is what i truly expect
Suzuki this year - .275 average, .330 OBP, .410 SLG, 12 or so HR
Castro when he is Suzuki’s age - .285 average, .350 OBP, .435 SLG. 15 or so HR.
That is what I roughly expect. 55 points of OPS better.
Based on 2009 stats, that would put him slightly ahead of David DeJesus, Jorge Cantu, Franklin Gutierrez and slightly behind Brian Roberts and Shane Victorino. Those guys were valuable, but not superstars by any means.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fewer steals than those guys
so less valuable offensively overall.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those guys
also aren’t catchers. Positional value has to be taken into account there. If you told me I could have 2009 Jorge Cantu or a player who would produce the same offense as Cantu with above average to plus defense at catcher, I’d take the catcher in a second, maybe faster than that. Just because a catcher and a 1B have an equal OPS it doesn’t mean they’re equally valuable. Take the aforementioned Cantu and Kurt Suzuki. Cantu’s OPS was 54 points higher, yet he was worth roughly half as many wins because of the difference in position and defense.
That’s why when you said that Castro’s floor is Suzuki(3 win player) and then gave your expected line(which has changed now) that put Castro close to Brian McCann offensively(which would probably put Castro at about 5 wins when you account for defense), I said I don’t see how you’d have him much lower than #10. That’s an extremely valuable player at catcher.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My expected line has not changed.
I gave my 75-80 percentile. I even called it a ceiling at the time. I never ever said I expect that. I mentioned to you several times that I did not expect it. It even sparked a conversation about what a ceiling is. YOU said that any catcher who can play good defense and is projected to have a ceiling of .850 should be a top 10 player. YOU said that. I said I thought Santana and Posey had a MUCH higher upside, then you went on to agree with me.
As far as value of position. That is obvious. I am saying offensively I expect Castro’s numbers to fall in the range of those players listed minus the SBs. Of course his overall value will be higher than all but maybe Brian Roberts.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, we really don't.
I don’t consider Santana’s or Posey’s upside to be around .900, I think it’s higher than that honestly. I can see Posey in the .290/.370/.500 range fairly easily, but as a peak year I could see .320/.420/.530 for him. Santana I see in the .280/.385/.500 range fairly easily but a peak year of .300/.420/.530 or so.
Ceiling to me is peak performance possible for a player, not a reasonable performance. That is where we differ. Your “ceiling” is more what I consider 75th percentile outcome.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok then
maybe i misuse the term. it is quite possible. i think as players get closer to the majors, i see view their ceiling closer to that 75th-80th percentile. for young player far from the majors, it is probably more like a 95th percentile or even a bit higher in some cases.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if I percieve him to not have upside for more then I think it is reasonable.
its 2.5-3.5 win catcher, but he also may bust.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ish don't think so.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jan 11, 2026 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
Matt Moore? Michael Ynoa? Jennry Mejia? Michael Saunders? Matt Dominguez? Todd Frazier? Josh Reddick? Ryan Kalish? Brett Lawrie? Matzek? Zach Stewart?
I should say I probably arent all that close to voting for these guys… sort of feel like Im throwing up some sacrrificial lambs.
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
alskor and gogotabata
Moore, Mejia, and Casey Kelly have all had turns on the poll. Crosby and Matzek are both on the tester list, should get chances in the next two polls at worst. Saunders and Turner I’ll throw on the tester list and we’ll get them on soon, still have a couple of names ahead of them to tryout.
Between the two lists the only name I don’t have on my own top 50 or as a B+ or better is Withrow, but I have him right on the fringe of B+/B. I’ll get these names added to the list and we’ll start cycling some guys in over the next few rounds.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Didnt even notice they were already tested
Just throwing out some more names for you. I have no problem with the testers so far.
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Casey Crosby, Jenrry Mejia, Donovan Tate, Chris Withrow, Casey Kelly, Matt Moore, Michael Saunder
OK, that’s a lot, but they’re guys that could easily slot in the next 10 spots
by gogotabata on Jan 10, 2026 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i prefer this list
to alskor’s above. but like he said, he was just throwing some names out there. is derek norris supposed to be part of this poll or next one?
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Norris
will be on in one of the next few, we only had one player fall below the 5% cutoff in both of his 2 turns on the ballot this last time, so only two new names. We have possibly 4 open spots for the next poll though(the winner comes off plus 3 likely to drop due to lack of support).
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's the right choice
I think the group being polled right now is probably the next group that goes on, in whatever order…
by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Grant Green
how do people like him?
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for me, he is the 4th best SS
Mier is #3.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have Castro #2
I have read some very mixed reviews on Gordon. As a fantasy player, Gordon has the higher upside for sure. But I don’t see him being a better overall hitter or a better defender. He’ll be a better baserunner though, which is more than just SBs.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While as a defender Castro is probably going to be better for longer
I really think he needs to put some power on or the walks will never come. He needs to develop plate discipline, but pitchers wont keep throwing pitches out of the zone if they know they wont get beat throwing it down the middle. With Gordon I’m a little more optimistic that we’re going to see an increased walk rate along with more power to go along with his ++ speed.
I love Castro’s ARL, and he has performed very well, but unless I see some power developing I think the potential for bust is just too high. I have him at 5 behind:
Escobar/Green/Gordon/Mier
in that order. Although they’re pretty much interchangeable with 2-5. I think when I get around to doing my list, all 5 will be in between 20-35, and 2-5 might come right after each other.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mier
I think it’s pretty ridiculous to rank Rookie Ball guys that highly unless they’re the elite of the elite. I’ll take the similar upside and better floor of a Green any day.
by PissedMick on Jan 10, 2026 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think mier
actually has the higher floor, not necessarily the higher upside of the two.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Floor.
If Mier’s floor was higher, he wouldn’t have spent last year in Rookie Ball.
by PissedMick on Jan 10, 2026 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not true
he is much much younger. floor is projectable.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm too scared of anyone in rookie ball to really allow myself to say a "high floor"
ALTHOUGH. When compared to Castro and Gordon I think it is fair. His floor is still much lower than Green’s, though. Green is just farther along in his development. Mier, along with Castro and Gordon, you could see not making it at all for one reason or another, I don’t see that happening (barring injury) with Green. They might all fail, but if they all do then Green would have the highest chance to stick.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
errr...
well i’ve read from several people that they don’t believe that green’s bat will develop and some that aren’t sure his defense is good enough to stick at SS. i haven’t read anywhere that mier’s bat or glove might not be good enough. of course there is a failure possibility, but the projection has a high floor.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think most of the Green hate is just a reaction from being overrated
He was overrated last year after his cape cod season, but the tools that they saw then are still there. He showed disappointing power last spring, but does that take away the power that he showed with wood in the Cape? He has plus contact ability and the biggest concern I have with him offensively is his walk rate.
Defensively, I’ve heard some mixed reviews as well. Some question his arm strength, but most reports that I’ve seen have said his range is good enough to stay at SS.
As for Mier, he may be a better defender right now, but it’s not like he has a premier bat, per BA’s draft database:
He has been inconsistent with the bat, struggling last summer during showcases but looking sensational last fall at the World Wood Bat Championship and the Southern California scout ball all-star game. Overstriding threw off his timing earlier in the spring, but of late he shortened his stride, though he still has a tendency to lunge at the ball and get his weight out on his front leg. When Mier squares a pitch up, the ball flies off his bat. He has the natural quickness and hand-eye coordination to be an excellent hitter. He projects as a line-drive singles and doubles hitter, with slightly below-average power.
by jar75 on Jan 11, 2026 9:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
that report alone still probably gives him a floor similar to green. i think with some actual pro data, mier’s bat is considered better. remember, many people thought he was a bit of a stretch at 21. now, i think he would be considered top 6-7 from that draft.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mier had a great debut, and I like him as a prospect. However, 190 ABs in the Appy League isn’t much data. He’s a very good SS prospect and has earned a top 100 spot with his debut. Green, however, is a borderline top 50 prospect and I don’t think Mier is on that level.
by jar75 on Jan 11, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i guess i do
borderline at least. he is a B+ guy to me. and like i said, in my mind, the obvious 3rd best SS, that is assuming Castro makes it as a SS who is #2 on my list.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like him a lot, but he shouldn't be on yet
by jar75 on Jan 10, 2026 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He should be on the testers...
Jim Callis has him ranked #38 in his top 100 (stated in a chat on 12/30). If we are at #22 right now with 11 prospects in the poll and another 8 tester prospects, that means 41 prospects are mentioned right now. Add in the 5 other prospects who have fallen out due to low vote totals and there are 46. Certainly Grant Green should be in the discussion of the top 45-50 prospects in baseball.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 10, 2026 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hoping to spark some debate...
I’m really deciding between Hicks and Chapman, and maybe Westmoreland. Am open to be convinced.
There’s been hype surrounding Hicks since he was drafted. The stat results are less than impressive. That said, I keep seeing his name pop around, so I feel he should fit around here given his pedigree and tool profile.
I’m leaning Chapman especially since he reportedly signed. A fireballing lefty who has the stuff enough to debut at AA, feels like had he been drafted we’d may have already had him on the list, but we’d at least be talking about him now.
I do see some enthusiastic Westmoreland fans, who have me considering him around here. Can’t deny his hype, not sure what’s real and what’s east coast mirage. Performance was fine for SS, and I believe Heyward made it to 28 on BA coming out of rookie ball. Is Westmoreland better than Heyward was at the same stage?
Anyway, reply if you’re a supporter of one of these guys, and I’ll wait to vote until later.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 10, 2026 6:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like players who offer a complete package
So I go Westmoreland, with Hicks close behind. Chapman has arguably the highest ceiling (even though Westmoreland also has the chance to be great), but he also has got huge concerns about him game that keep me worried.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your problem with Chapman...
does it extend beyond the caution about cuban players given their collective track record?
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 10, 2026 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody
Please Rec each player’s name so it will be highlighted and clearly defined.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 7:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ok, not sure who to vote for, somebody sway me
Drabek was the next on my list at this point, but I’m not sure that he’s really any better than Wade Davis. Upside/risk vs. Floor/safety there, I think they kind of even out. Then there is Chapman, landed the huge contract but I like seeing data on guys. I completely forgot about FMart when I made my list and I’m really struggling to figure out where to slot him, I have a hard time with these extreme ARL cases. He showed good power in AAA this year though, so maybe I go with him here. Hicks and Westmoreland are both guys I’d consider here but I’m not sure I’d put them over FMart.
So like beastball said, let’s see some discussion here. Somebody convince to vote for their guy.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 10, 2026 8:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, kinda overlooked Drabek myself...
Personally, I wouldn’t put FMart in this group yet, not sure about Davis either, not sure how much father I’d let him slide however.
I’m tending towards Chapman, I just have more information on him. I try to think of him as a draftee, I’ve heard he’d been a top 10 pick for sure, and some had him as high as #3. If we had a #3 JC pick who was slatted to open in AA, I really think he’d been top 20. But there is the Cuban stigma that is affecting his ranking.
So for now, I’m going Chapman.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 10, 2026 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Other issues are with control, which seems a bit iffy at this point. Also, he seems to have some consistency issues, one day he throws 101 MPH, and the next he’s low 90’s. Too many question marks for me to not vote for a guy like Westmoreland or Hicks.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Westmoreland/Chisenhall
Can be swayed either way. Give me some points as to which one is the better prospect. Things are getting a little thin, thinks these guys have some of the better upsides on the list.
by MightyMoose on Jan 10, 2026 8:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like Westmoreland
for reasons stated above.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
boy, this voting format is sure stifling discussion.
by larry on Jan 10, 2026 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
to be fair, there has been some discussion of the shortstops. Also, a half-hearted attempt to talk about Chisenhall.
who should we talk about?
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe...
Westmoreland, F-Mart, Chapman, and Davis the 4 leaders in the poll?
Obviously i’ve been involved in the SS and C talks and actually I think it is good to get them out of the way now.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
kinda interested about F-Mart
seems to be an intriguing guy. Didn’t have much support before this round but really got some steam this round
by cr1578 on Jan 11, 2026 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that may be due to the pool he is up against. The players who are close to the majors who have had more success than him (Escobar/Taylor/Hellickson/Morrison) are off the board
The players who are close to the majors who have had more success than him (Escobar/Taylor/Hellickson/Morrison) are off the board,and now, despite his percieved youth, he is the closest thing to the majors who has some proven success.
I like him, but I wish he wasn’t at a corner defensively.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
First poll for FMart
I think alot of people, myself included, forgot about him thinking he used up his eligibility. Last poll was the first mention of him, so I got him on here this round.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Voted F-Mart
Just turned 21, and has already experienced success at the highest levels of the minors. The walk rate isn’t good, but he has time to work on his patience. I think he at least becomes a productive regular at the ML level. Like navi said though, I wish he wasn’t limited to a corner.
by blindsided789 on Jan 11, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he was saying it hasnt stifled discussion at all
by alskor on Jan 11, 2026 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting and close race so far...
Ryan Westmoreland - 14
Fernando Martinez - 11
Aroldis Chapman - 11
Wade Davis - 8
Aaron Hicks - 4
Lonnie Chisenhall - 4
No one else has more than 2 votes.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 10, 2026 11:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
Honestly, not that excited about the options. This isn’t to say there are necessarily better options … but no one really stands out.
Lyles is a nice arm that seems to be either underhyped or overhyped. A lot of work to go there, and while he’s promising, I don’t think he’s top 25 promising as of now. I want to see how the secondary stuff develops before pondering top 30 for him. I don’t think Gordon is the best shortstop prospect on this list, so I can’t see myself voting for him. I have Westmoreland ahead of Hicks, so that knocks Hicks out. I’m just not sure I’m ready to go all-in on Westmoreland’s tools as the 21st best prospect in the game. I really like him, but I’m not sure.
I think Martinez deserves a bit more attention, but I’m still not sure I like his bat enough to put him at 21, despite the strides he’s made this year. Dan Hudson’s a nice arm, but I’d put Wade Davis easily ahead of him. Hudson feels more like a solid mid-rotation arm, and while he might be safer than Davis, there’s just not enough ceiling for me to go that route.
I really am coming around on Wade Davis a bit more, considering his arsenal showed better this year. Something nags me about him, but that’s one of those unexplainable (at least for me, since I didn’t follow the Rays system all that closely this year) things. Chisenhall and Alonso strike me more as the solid regulars than potential stars. Maybe that’s not being fair to Chisenhall, but I’m just not sure he’s a future stud just yet. I’m tempted to go Alonso as a safe option here, but that seems to be half-assing it.
That leaves Chapman and Castro. I was leaning Chapman for awhile (voted for him at 11, but more as default), but all the late negative reports on him have me a bit troubled. I don’t really think Castro is the 21st best prospect in the game, but honestly, I think I could make a fair case that, if you buy Castro’s tools being as good as some (BA/Churchill/others) claim, then his potential and positional value gets him in the conversation here. That said,
a) Sort of a wasted pick - he’s not going to make it, and will take another 3 round breather.
b) I don’t really buy him as the 21st best prospect either.
I guess I’m pondering Chapman/Davis/Martinez. I really can’t justify a Davis vote here in my mind (for a variety of reasons) and not sold on Martinez enough, so going with Chapman by default.
by toonsterwu on Jan 11, 2026 1:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Went Wade Davis in the end
His combination of low flameout chance, high chance of being a #3 starter and some chance of being more than that won out here. Next five are probably FMart, Westmoreland, Chapman, Chisenhall and Drabek in some order, not sure what order yet though. I think I’ll be doing some juggling of my list in the next couple of days, there are so many guys in this next 20-25 spots that are very similar and hard to seperate.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 1:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
i voted for brett wallace
but i want to change my vote to wade davis..
by matthewmafa on Jan 11, 2026 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where would you put Hicks?
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 11, 2026 5:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably in the next 10 after the names I mentioned.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 11, 2026 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Results Update...
1. Ryan Westmoreland - 16
2. Aroldis Chapman - 15
3. Fernando Martinez - 13
4. Wade Davis - 12
5. Lonnie Chisenhall - 7
No one else really too close.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
seems like we'll need a full 24 hours on this one.
hopefully one or two emerge.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we could just 4-way runoff. I think some people voting Chisenhall might sway the vote one way or another
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 11, 2026 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i hope not.
there have only been 17 votes for someone outside those 4 (that includes chisenhall’s 7). they are going to all have to think very similarly or we’ll have a stalemate run-off. i think just naming the winner even if it is only by 3 votes makes more sense than a 4 way run off.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we love our hitters here
I remember this from last year, there seems to always be a strong bias for hitting prospects over pitchers in these polls. I personally would expect Kelly to make it first over Westmoreland, and Mejia over Martinez, and maybe Wade Davis and Kyle Drabek over any of them. Though all do belong somewhere near here.
by acerimusdux on Jan 11, 2026 12:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
JJ Cooper on Chapman
This is basically the reason why I have been voting for him:
“Chapman sits at 94-95 mph and can pair his fastball with a changeup, slider and curveball. The slider is his second-best pitch, though none of his secondary offerings come close to matching his fastball as of yet. If he can refine his command and his slider, he has the stuff to be a front-of-the-rotation starter. If he doesn’t, the worst-case scenario is that he ends up as a power lefty out of the bullpen.”
by jar75 on Jan 11, 2026 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
from today's Royals chat.
J.J. Cooper: Sorry to interrupt the Royals chat with a Reds question, but I’ll add in this one question on Chapman. I’m not a Cuban baseball historian, but there’s no way he’s the best pitcher in Cuban history—you have to have some accomplishments to earn that title and Chapman doesn’t have any real accomplishments yet. He’s getting the money based on his potential. If you’re an optimist, all of his command problems just need some simple tweaks and he’s on his way to being an ace. If you’re a pessimist, his wavering command is a sign that he’s a long ways from being a reliable big leaguer and it will require a lot of patience. Chapman’s arm is special, but so is Homer Bailey’s and Reds fans have seen how long it’s taken him to put things together. He could be in the rotation this year especially if the Reds want to give a glimpse of what they paid for, but he likely will require some patience.
Seems anything but a sure thing. Upside is huge, but seems very far away from reaching it. If floor is power lefty out of the pen should not be on the list, just yet, imo.
by MightyMoose on Jan 11, 2026 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And I agree with that comment too
He will need a bit of time in the minors to refine his control and get more consistent with the offspeed stuff. That is a pretty high floor though and the reason why I have no problem voting for him at this stage. Does Westmoreland have that high of a floor?
by jar75 on Jan 11, 2026 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong
I have him 25-30, so I don’t think it is that much of a stretch here. I actually agree with you on Westmoreland. A lot has to go right, but a big upside. I went Chisenhall here, more because of the likelihood and consensus that his bat and glove is good enough to play the hot corner in the majors. I also think Ike Davis should probably get on soon too, as well as Wallace, Kelly and Drabek.
by MightyMoose on Jan 11, 2026 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Update
Westmoreland - 23 votes
Chapman - 18 votes
Martinez - 16 votes
Davis - 15 votes
Chisenhall - 9 votes
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 11, 2026 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
nearly 24 hours now...
Westmoreland with a 6 vote lead over Chapman (24-18), and a 7 vote lead over F-Mart and Davis (24-17). That is enough of a lead in my opinion, as long as Gatling thinks enough time has passed.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
correction:
F-Mart and Davis have 16, not 17 at this point. Doesn’t matter much though.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 11, 2026 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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