Hit and Run, September 16th, 2009

by John Sickels on Sep 16, 2025 8:00 AM EDT Comment 40 comments

Hit and Run, September 16, 2025

**Someone asked me for my opinion on Homer Bailey, pointing out some recent good starts. It is true that his ERA is lower in September (3.63 compared to 5.06 in August and 6.28 in July), but his WHIPS have actually gotten worse (1.79 this month, 1.50 in August, 1.36 in July) so it is hard for me to say that he's actually pitching better. I don't see any reason to change my opinion of him: he's got great stuff but is still more thrower than pitcher. Maybe he'll develop, maybe he won't, no one knows how he will pan out and anyone who says they do is delusional.

**Someone asked me what is the "state of Sickels" in terms of how I analyze things. I'm increasingly aware of how little any of us really know. Fangraphs and Pitch FX is fascinating stuff but can't be applied to the minor leagues and prospects yet since we lack data from minor league stadiums. I continue to believe that there are no magic bullets in prospect analysis, and that it is critical to look at both statistical and traditional approaches. Nothing new there. I've grown increasingly skeptical about guys with great scouting reports who haven't played yet. At the same time I'm well-aware of "stathead failures" too. I've grown increasingly willing to say "I don't know" when asked questions. Because frankly, a lot of times I don't. We can give estimates or probabilities.

**Right now I'm very busy with childcare and family matters. I'll start on the 2010 book soon as well. Look for more frequent but briefer posts here as I have to manage my time very carefully.

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I'm the one who asked about Homer:

It’s certainly true that his WHIP has increased, but let’s look a little bit deeper:

July:
BABIP: .284
K/9: 5.65
BB/9: 2.83
HR/9: 1.57
FIP: 5.15

August:
BABIP: .324
K/9: 5.91
BB/9: 3.09
HR/9: 1.13
FIP: 4.54

September:
BABIP: .388
K/9: 10.38
BB/9: 5.19
HR/9: 1.05
FIP: 4.12

The walk rate in September is a little bit troubling, but the rest of his peripherals are going in the right direction. From watching a few of his games, he looks a lot better than he did earlier in the year. I agree that it’s much too early to make any kind of statement on his future (and the sample size is very small), but his recent stretch has been encouraging.

by jar75 on Sep 16, 2025 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm with jar75

I’ve been watching Bailey for years and while I agree that his future is still uncertain, there’s more hope than not that he’s ready to start in the major leagues finally . And what the numbers don’t tell is that his velocity has returned to its previous high levels (mid-90s, touches 97 mph) and he’s maintaining it late into starts. He’s also allowed only two homers in his last five starts (both in the same game), so while he’s getting hit he is doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park. That was an indicator when he was dominating at Louisville, and it’s a good one now. There’s no doubt that he has much to learn, and command of his slider and the two-seamer he picked up in the minors this year is crucial, but observationally speaking he’s night and day from the beginning of the season as jar states.

by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm not delusional.

i can see that Homer has excellent stuff. of course he may not pan out. that can be said of any pitcher.

but its obvious you haven’t seen how he’s been pitching the last 4 or 5 starts… he’s not a “thrower”.

by daveh33 on Sep 16, 2025 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

He has a plan now, one which he actually executes with some frequency.

by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What plan is that?

walk over 5 guys per 9 IP?

Bailey has a long way to go to make me a believer. I could definitely see him ending up in the pen pretty soon.

by alskor on Sep 16, 2025 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing wrong with that. His stuff is good enough that he could absolutely dominate in small stretches as a reliever. Of course, it’s a letdown from being considered the future of all baseball in Cincy (I was in town the night he made his debut, it was like Jesus had just arrived in town) to being a dominant reliever, but you need those guys too.

by Cormican on Sep 16, 2025 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's 23

He’s a long way away from being converted into a reliever. He has 5 pitches and is improving. He maintains his stuff deep into games and doesn’t have an injury history. His walk rate has been a bit high this September, but to base a move to the bullpen on that seems a bit absurd. It should also be noted that he has thrown 577 pitches over his last 5 outings (that’s an average of 115.4).

by jar75 on Sep 16, 2025 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bailey is only 23?

Whoa

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Sep 16, 2025 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not saying, but saying...

Rob Nenn, Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto…anyone see a pattern? Bailey’s next, mark my words.

Baker will pretty quickly decide Homer just needs to get more starts and more innings to “feel comfortable.” After all, that’s what a gristled veteran does. When that happens, Homer will pick up Edinson’s starts in addition to his own - double time.

by ZackAttack on Sep 16, 2025 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what does he have in common with any of those pitchers?

by daveh33 on Sep 16, 2025 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He throws hard?

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Sep 17, 2025 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i guess we should add AJ Burnett, Neftali Feliz, Jon Broxton, Fernando Rodney

and Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke then.

did i forget anyone?

right-handed and throws hard is all i’ve got right now

by daveh33 on Sep 17, 2025 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was referring to Dusty’s reputation for abusing his arms

by NRC on Sep 17, 2025 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah, makes sense

Harang is fine though. lol

by daveh33 on Sep 17, 2025 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bailey's pitch counts the last 5 starts:

115, 117, 116, 115, 114

by sharks on Sep 17, 2025 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm...

this has already been mentioned, missed that part of jar75’s post

by sharks on Sep 17, 2025 4:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

on that note

he has 5 pitches? I haven’t seen them, only pitches I see him use are 4 seam, split, and curve.

I’m interested to hear what they are, so I could keep an eye out for them.

by sharks on Sep 17, 2025 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitches, from fangraphs

Fastball (71.9%)
Slider (11.6%)
Curve (8.1%)
Change (1.2%)
Split (7.3%)

He has gotten away from the change-up this year, but he still throws it occasionally.

by jar75 on Sep 17, 2025 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I've seen him throw a change, but its rare

He threw one last year that had a ton of movement on it, id like to see him develop one he can use consistently. I suck for not remembering the slider, now that I think about it I have seen him use it. Lately it’s looked like he’s using the split more, but as this chart points out, all he uses are FBs. It’s telling of how good a pitch it is by how well he’s still able to do.

by sharks on Sep 17, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pssh

Nen was in his 30s when he broke down. Schmidt had a history of injuries with the Pirates; he had his healthiest and most productive stretch of his career under Baker.

We can play this game with any manager, say Bobby Cox:

Steve Avery, John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, Mark Wohlers, Mike Gonzalez, Paul Byrd, Kerry Ligtenberg, Chuck James, Peter Moylan, Chris Reitsma, Tim Spooneybarger, Kevin McGlinchey, Terrell Wade, Blaine Boyer, Anthony Lerew, Horacio Ramirez, John Thomson…

All these guys were good/great pitchers/prospects who suffered significant injuries under Bobby Cox’s watch. Most of them were never the same. Bobby Cox = the Reaper.

Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are dooooooooomed.

by aCone419 on Sep 17, 2025 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

by daveh33 on Sep 17, 2025 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I largely endorse this POV

He really doesn’t look like a reliever type to me. His stamina is impressive.

I do think he might benefit from spending, say, half a season in the pen, if only to simplify things for him. Too many pitches for a guy who doesn’t throw enough strikes. Let him focus on a couple of pitches per AB and then gradually add the other stuff back in.

by mrkupe on Sep 17, 2025 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't get it.

he walks a lot.

it happens with guys who have stuff like his. give him a full season.

by daveh33 on Sep 17, 2025 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

It is his plan to walk as many batters a spossible. Clearly that’s the case.

by blackoutyears on Sep 17, 2025 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I watched one of his recent starts pretty intently . . .he has definitely improved in some areas, although it appears to have more to do with coaching than improvement in his actual pitching ability. By that I mean he seems to have a somewhat better idea of what he wants to do out there, but is still relatively limited in making a lot of those things happen.

I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic about his chances of succeeding in MLB, but I remain skeptical as to what that success will entail.

by mrkupe on Sep 16, 2025 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Biggest improvement

Is FB velocity. The last two seasons he was lucky to touch 94, and pitched at 90-92 a lot of nights. Now he’s 94-96 with regularity. I’m not usually the guy to claim precedence of opinion because I live in the city where a player plies his trade, but in this case if you haven’t watched Bailey year in and year out you really can’t comment substantively on what’s changed for him. His mechanics have been smoothed out this year (search and you’ll find a couple of good A/B video breakdowns on the net) and he repeats them well. Add in the splitter he learned from Lehr in Louisville this year and you have three significant areas of improvement. As for his five pitches, he doesn’t throw the change enough for it to matter (too bad as it’s flashed as above average in years past) and the curve is useful because he throws it for strikes and at odd times in the count. Per the PITCHf/x breakdown above his core arsenal is the FB, slider and split. Jar is completely correct that there are five, but sharks is probably only going to see four. Sharks, if you’ve seen him and didn’t count the slider among his ptiches I’m a little surprised as it’s obviously his primary breaking ball by a good distance.

To somewhat amend my original comment, it’s actually control of the slider that’s an issue, as he doesn’t consistently throw it for strikes. It breaks down and away from RHHs and doesn’t catch the plate. It’s reminiscent of the old Bailey who tried to paint the black on every pitch. Once he trusts himself to throw the slider in the zone like he does the FB, which is basically trusting that it won’t get killed when he misses, he’ll take another step. The splitter is a better pitch but he uses it less than I’d hoped, and it’s primarily a weapon against RHHs as he throws it in under the hands. PITCHf/x also seems to bear out my anecdotal impression that he’s getting by almost exclusively on the FB, which is impressive in its own right, as he’s still getting guys out the third time through the order with that pitch. I’m wary of injury with him, but he looks strong and he’s maintaining easy velo late into games, so I’m crossing my fingers.

by blackoutyears on Sep 17, 2025 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keith Law always knows

by NRC on Sep 17, 2025 2:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's looked better since he added the splitter

Personally I think he still throws too many fastballs, but guys still have trouble hitting them, so I’m not sure how to feel about it. Plus he’s been able to keep his velocity around 96-98 throughout his starts. I’d like to see him develop a change up to go with his heater, and use his curve more effectively. Why he hasn’t added even an average change is a complete mystery to me.

It’s already been mentioned that he’s still really young, so it should be interesting to watch how he progresses. His control has seemed to improve, despite the higher WHIPs he’s posting.

by sharks on Sep 17, 2025 3:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Change

I agree on the change to some degree. When he first came up he threw a change with great action that absolutely locked up RHHs. Considering his velo, my surmise is that the splitter, which comes in around 88, has the necessary velo difference from the FB to act as a change and that’s how he’s using it. The curve is used very effectively imo, and I wouldn’t change a thing. It’s not a swing-and-miss pitch so much as a gotcha pitch, which he throws in odd counts. Because it’s consistently thrown for strikes it’s actually more effective than if he threw it in more conventional counts. He’s tightened the curve considerably — anyone who saw him when he debuted probably remembers the big 12-to-6 he threw — and he gets in trouble when the hitter is sitting on it. The slider is the breaker with swing-and-miss potential, and he simply doesn’t control it right now.

by blackoutyears on Sep 17, 2025 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he said earlier this year

that he’s always hated throwing a change. he’s never been comfortable with it. the Reds made him stick with it, but then he learned the splitter from Justin Lehr and when he had success with it the Reds reluctantly relented. they didnt want him throwing it because of the injury risk, supposedly.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 17, 2025 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

There’s a Rick Bozich article reprinted on one of the Reds fan blogs where Bailey told his manager at Louisville (Rick Sweet) to tell the Reds that the splitter was a change if they didn’t want to give permission to throw it. He also told Sweet he was going to throw it regardless of whether or not the org okayed it, which is an interesting side of Bailey. I guess the rumors of his stubbornness and variable coachability may be true…

by blackoutyears on Sep 17, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting, I missed that quote

which I’m sure was posted somewhere on RR

by sharks on Sep 17, 2025 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For your reading pleasure

http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/06/homer-and-splitter.html

by blackoutyears on Sep 18, 2025 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Homer tonight: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K.

i just kind of lol when these things happen.

what does Homer have to do?

win CY next year for people to trust that he is a pitcher and not a “thrower”?

by daveh33 on Sep 19, 2025 1:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I missed this game

I wasn’t home to watch it on MLB.tv, but I can’t believe Dusty let him through another 118 pitches.

by jar75 on Sep 19, 2025 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can

by sharks on Sep 19, 2025 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

homer

Obviously I wrote that comment before this game. Geez. I get sick of the constant carping around here sometime.

Let’s see how things look at the end of the season.

by John Sickels on Sep 19, 2025 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry John

not trying to be negative.

but this isn’t the first start Homer has had like this.

he has a new pitch, and he’s maintaining velocity late into his 100+ pitch starts.

it’s time to give Homer credit where its due

by daveh33 on Sep 19, 2025 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

Sorry…I was cranky.

I am overwhelmed right now and my temper is short. I apologize.

by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2025 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

John

I certainly hope my posts haven’t come off as carping. Not my intention at all. It’s perfectly reasonable to hold off on a player you don’t watch with regularity. As someone who does I hoped to add something anecdotal to the debate. If anything I took your post as a jumping off point. Bailey could go out and get blown up next time, get hurt, pitch well again etc. I didn’t get to see this last start (argh) but Doug Gray said that it was the curve that was working this time out, so even in a good start Bailey continues to elude easy categorization.

by blackoutyears on Sep 21, 2025 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs