in no definite order: Bumgarner, Parker, Feliz, Latos, Tillman, Matusz, Chacin, Carrasco, Arrieta…(damn that’s only 9)…I’ll hedge and put Drabek/Bowden/Alderson at the end. Drabek with the helium, and Bowden/Alderson as pretty low-risk guys.

After that there are guys like Cecil/Rondon/Reckling (not necessarily the next in line, just an example) who I like, but who I don’t think have what it takes to make it to the next tier, and guys like Mejia/Holt/Lincoln and maybe even Knapp/Lyles/MartinPerez who don’t have the track record yet but have the ceiling to make a big leap.

I’m not saying Mejia will be there by the end of the year, but I do really like what I’m seeing from the kid. Scouting reports have been great (the ones that deal with his pitching and not his size, of course), and the results are hard to argue with. Just wondering what it would take for people to jump on the bandwagon.

Take the graduates off of BA’s list, and he’s in the 25-30 range. I personally don’t like him though, so it’s no difference to me.

Still, the point of the question is clear, whether or not you want to quibble with the examples. What does it take to make Mejia a top 10-15 pitching prospect by the end of the year? Is it possible?

This year, Matusz is at A+ ball with a 3.14 FIP. Last year, Alderson pitched at A+ ball with a 3.23 FIP. Roughly the same except that Matusz is 22 while Alderson was 19. Granted that age doesn’t matter as much for pitchers than hitters, but that Alderson could do as well against the same opposition with three less years of development time is impressive.

This year, Alderson had some trouble in A+ ball but when he got brought up to AA, did even better than he did in A+ ball last year in his first few starts. He hasn’t struck out quite as many people as Matusz, but still has a very good K rate and showed outstanding control at higher levels than Matusz has at a significantly younger age. I can see the argument that the greater K rate and better secondary stuff makes Matusz an equal prospect, but I don’t understand why you think that Matusz is so much better

He’s got 4 above average pitches, great pitching frame, mechanics, consistency, and he’s got the perfect pitcher’s mentality. I think he is most likely a #2 in a big league rotation with an outside chance of being a true ace, whereas Bowden seems more like a #3-4 to me at best (and I’m a Sox fan).