Dewey Finn VS King Billy Royal: Ranking the Catchers - This time its PERSONAL!!!
by King Billy Royal
on Aug 16, 2025 11:15 PM EDT
183 comments
The legendary duo of Dewey Finn and King Billy Royal have decided to rank the best players at each position in the minor leagues. However, after spending days trying to come to a consensus, both men agreed that this attempt was futile. Therefore, King Billy Royal and Dewey Finn have decided to go head to head and let the community decide who has chosen the better players at each position. To begin we will examine the top catching prospects.
The following are some important notes regarding the criteria we used to determine who is eligible:
*Current prospects at the Major League level were not taken into consideration.
*Rankings on the assumption that the player will remain at their current position long-term.
*Rankings done according to the position the player is currently playing in the minor leagues, and not necessarily the projected future position (i.e. Montero at catcher instead of first).
*Some of the prospects have been re-evaluated since the release of the DF & KBR Top 25 list.
Dewey Finn:
1. Jesus Montero (NYY) - In a few years, AL pitchers will fear him more than Arod.
2. Buster Posey (SFG) - Solid all-round player will become the clubhouse leader.
3. Tyler Flowers (CHW) - Adam Dunn-lite is a valuable player at the catcher position.
4. Josh Thole (NYM) - A Mauer-like control of the strike zone should contend for batting titles.
5. Carlos Santana (CLE) - Switch-hitter provides a solid combination of power and plate discipline.
King Billy Royal:
1. Jesus Montero (NYY) -Has the potential to hit 30+ homeruns while contending for the batting titl
2. Buster Posey (SFG) - Imagine Craig Biggio if he stuck at catcher.
3. Carlos Santana (CLE) - Combination of power and plate discipline to go with improving defense.
4. Tyler Flowers (CHW) - Needs to cut down the k's but he could be a valuable source of 25 homeruns at catcher
5. Derek Norris (WAS) - Breakout season for the power hitting backstop.
3 recs |
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In what world is Thole ranked above Santana?
by gorilla_baller on Aug 16, 2025 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I don’t get Dewey’s love for Thole. He has an empty average and hasn’t displayed much power to date.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 16, 2025 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can understand if Dewey wasn't fond of the collab with Rob Thomas. I can
but how can he disrespect Carlos Santana over-and-over again?
by daveh33 on Aug 16, 2025 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Looking back I drastically underrated Santana. While I am not as sold on his bat as others, he will surely be a valuable MLB catcher. I should have had more respect for his defense in the top 25 list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 16, 2025 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no disrespect intended for Santana
I put him in the Top 5, IMO, that’s a lot of respect, especially considering my concerns for him.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to get this straight
Your concern about Santana is primarily that he might not stick at Catcher… but then your #1 guy is a kid who has… like what? a 1 in a million chance to stick at Catcher…?
by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand Montero's bat will definitely play at 1B/DH
but come on… I think you may have overthought this…
by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The players selected were guys who are currently playing the position in the minors
*Rankings done according to the position the player is currently playing in the minor leagues, and not necessarily the projected future position (i.e. Montero at catcher instead of first).
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well what are dewey's concerns about carlos then?
aside from thinking he won’t stick at catcher? i don’t remember them
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 3:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That didn't really address my point...
I understand your rankings. Dewey has Santana lower than you - and lower than most would have him IMO. In fact, your lists arent very different at all. I believe the reason Dewey’s list is losing this poll so badly comes down to people disliking the choice of Thole over Santana.
It appears youre ignoring defense/the question of whether someone is staying at the position (you say as much). Then by what rationale does Dewey have Thole over Santana? In your combined top 50 list the low ranking of Santana was justified b/c of supposed questions about his defense.
So:
-If questions about defense are NOT an issue, then how can one justify Santana’s bat below Thole’s bat?
-If questions about defense ARE an issue, then how can Montero be #1?
Seems to lack consistency. Santana is being punished for alleged defensive issues (which I dont buy anyway) but Montero isnt.
Im not saying it should be one way or the other, but if you are actually ignoring the issue of defense/staying at the position it seems really hard to justify Santana that low. Whatever problems there are with his bat - and there arent really any IMO, Thole has more questions…
by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No clue
I prefer Santana to Thole.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Empty average?
What about his great plate discipline?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2025 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
When did I ever give Thole any love? Personally I think he is an overhyped singles hitter.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 18, 2025 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just because he doesn’t hit Home Runs doesn’t necessarily make him a singles hitter. Thole had an isoP of .127 in St. Lucie at Age 21 and a .099 in Binghamton at Age 22, thanks in large part to 25 doubles last year and 27 doubles this year.
With that said, Top 5 Catcher is probably a stretch for him.
by adropofvenom on Aug 18, 2025 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thole
Although he doesn’t match Santana’s power, Thole is a better pure hitter, and plays MUCH better D.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pure hitter? on what grounds? last year as a 22 year old at hi-A Santana hit .323 w/LA and .352 w/CLE… he also ISO-ed a crap load higher than Thole all the while demonstrating just as strong on-base skills
i know you’ve had beef with his ability to stick at catcher, but that’s not here nor there… just hitting-wise Santana smokes Thole
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
/facepalm
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 17, 2025 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
intelligent response
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To an intelligent statement.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 17, 2025 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
every scouting report i’ve read indicates that thole has very recently upgraded his defense to a passable grade… which, even if you think santana has below-average d, doesn’t separate the two by a whole lot in that category
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only edge Santana gets over Thole is power.
Thole is superior in all other areas.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just posted that Santana walks a lot more.
and his BABIP isn’t so lucky. do you honestly think Thole’s BABIP in MLB will be Ichiro-like?
why in the hell are you so stubborn on this?
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 17, 2025 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thole rode .442 and .405 BABIP for april and may… no way does he stay this high… he just happens to be very lucky this year
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Thole, and even I wouldn't do that.
Though I don’t like Derek Norris.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2025 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.150 ISOP
separates Santana from Thole.
6.2% BB. separates Santana from Thole
Thole’s BABIP for april and may was .442 and .405 in which he batted .383 and .365
in June [his most PA at 115], his BABIP was a more normal .326 [identical to his total from last year], and he put up .310/.374/.400 . good for a wOBA of .338
Santana’s worst wOBA for any month was June in which he had a .368 wOBA [he also had 115 PA]. [his BABIP was .257…
Thole is not going to have many months in MLB where his BABIP is near .400, and its absurd that any GM/scout/writer in baseball would take him over Santana. real talk
by daveh33 on Aug 16, 2025 11:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Santana's wOBA for the other months
.403 [even with a BABIP of .227…. helped that his ISOP was an absurd .361]
.374
.417
and .449 so far in august.
by daveh33 on Aug 16, 2025 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the funniest part of this post . . .
. . .is the fact that the poll question is NOT “who is the best catching prospect in the minor leagues” (a good question to ask considering both Dewey and KBR placed the clear consensus best C in the minors no better than third on their lists), but which one of Dewey and KBR had the better list.
Yes, that’s right. Even in the poll section, it’s very clear what this post is about. Here’s a hint: it’s not minor league catchers.
by mrkupe on Aug 16, 2025 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+ 1 billion
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 16, 2025 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
How could I do a ‘best catching prospect in the minors’ when we are each proposing a list of 5 guys? I don’t know why guys need to play semantics and try to cause drama. If you don’t like a thread, don’t post or at least leave out personal attacks on others’ character.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 16, 2025 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
clearly that question couldn't have hurt
Or any other question that pertained to minor league catchers?
I’m certainly up for talking about catching prospects. How it becomes the latest chapter in the Dewey Finn-KBR self-promotion-masquerading-as-debate is beyond me. That is all I’m saying.
by mrkupe on Aug 17, 2025 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear your point
I worded the question poorly. I was trying to see which list better gauges the true best 5 prospect at the catching position. Next time we do a poll I will make sure to word it better.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
self-promotion?
The only thing I am promoting is a fresh new perspective on prospects that is ‘outside the box’. I don’t care what the majority of the sheep on this board believe. I’m not here for approval. In most cases, they let others do their thinking for them and then piggy back opinions. I follow prospects very closely and am not shy nor scared to present my thoughts, even when they go against the consensus.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thinking outside the box is pointing out something new, something novel, all the while backing it up with something other than opinion… you’re grabbing at threads here, going on gut instinct.
gut instinct is a pretty poor metric for evaluation of anything
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sheep?
Did you really just call people here “sheep”?
You are not promoting a “fresh new perspective”. For the most part all you are doing is being a contrarian and presenting perspectives that everyone else has considered and discarded because they ultimately prove to be not valid. When people call you out on these things, you squabble with them, ignore them, anything to work around the fact that you just don’t have a reason for thinking the way you do other than that nobody else thinks that way. I paid attention when gatling (one of the posters here I respect the most) had to ask for information to back up your POV a handful of times and then, when it was finally produced, it was revealed that your take on it was intentionally misleading. I’ve also been paying attention as you’ve pushed Josh Thole (an empty average guy getting by on a high BABIP) as a top catching prospect while at the same time suggesting that Adrian Cardenas (younger, more athletic) is an overrated player. Your methodology is inconsistent to the point where I believe it’s largely nonexistent.
gatling also pointed out not that long ago that I haven’t posted my own stuff in recent times, and perhaps that’s been a mistake. To me this site has always been at it’s best when the commentary is grounded and well-reasoned, and free of sensationalism and agendas. While I applaud and appreciate your drive, your work doesn’t reflect ANY of that.
by mrkupe on Aug 17, 2025 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
the big question is:
will Dewey vote for Dewey? or will he make his family members register to SBnation?
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol
As you can see, I haven’t. I can’t believe I am getting no love here.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can't believe you are expecting to find one person
who likes flowers and thole better than santana
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just for the record, can we NOT rec the hell out of this one?
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
This post is mainly to generate discussion and does not need to be rec’d.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ouch this poll
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
by CB30 on Aug 17, 2025 12:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Love the Score
It’s like 31-0
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Aug 17, 2025 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who are the prospects that we missed?
Who are some guys who could be top 5 catchers in the minors who we missed?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 12:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he’s not a high end prospect and he’s old for his league, but i still like Josh Donaldson… good on-base skills, hits a few doubles that could generate 10-15 HRs eventually, and he plays decent defense as a catcher
also, this last draft class had a ton of HS catchers who might make this list in a few years
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson has a legit shot at being
the 3rd baseman of the future for the A’s. Have to love his discipline and pop. Rocket arm, too.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 17, 2025 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Christ on a crutch, this meme is getting annoying
23 is not “old” for AA. Especially if the player in question is a catcher.
I’m going to do a post on Josh Donaldson, because he’s had a very strange career and is difficult to categorize.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 17, 2025 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
He has shown a good bat since transitioning from college and should stick at catcher.
by tdot mariner fan on Aug 17, 2025 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, was wondering about that
Good glove, good bat . . .Santana over him and probably not enough there to change one’s mind about preferring Posey to him from last year, but he might be the closest thing to a complete catching prospect in the minors today.
by mrkupe on Aug 17, 2025 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was my #6
I considered him for #5 but I like Norris’ bat better.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thole
I’m a Mets fan. I love Thole. He’s not even a top 5 prospect in the Mets system. If he hits his absolute ceiling, he probably ends up hitting .330/.400/.450. What are the chances of that happening? He could still end up at something like .300/.360/.400 which would be very very good for a catcher, but that’s still not extremely likely.
He has a good chance at ending up an average to above average hitting catcher, with hopefully average defense. A good player, but not better than Carlos Santana.
And where are you getting that Thole is a better defender than Santana? I’m not denying it, I would just like to know, because I haven’t heard any especially positive reviews of Thole’s defense.
by supermets on Aug 17, 2025 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That is true, actually.
Thole is average defensively right now, while Santana is kinda meh. I still think he’ll stick there, though, and he’s definitely the better hitter.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2025 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mine
Posey
Santana
Norris
Castro
Flowers
[i rly don’t think montero is a “catcher”… if i’m counting him then its right after posey i guess]
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 1:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Josh Thole reminds me a little of Tony Gywnn Sr, That’s why I like him so much.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
in what respect? decent contact ability and no power?
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
excellent contact ability, advanced understanding of the strikezone, more bbs than ks…
not saying Thole will mirror Gwynn Sr, but there are some legitimate similarities.
Thole will be a high avg catcher, consistently hitting .320+ in my opinion. Although he hasn’t shown much power this year, he will eventually be good for 10-15 jacks a year. Combine that with a batting avg that should be anywhere from .320 to .340, thats a damn good player, and superior to Carlos Santana.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how is that superior to Santana?
Santana is projected to be similar Victor Martinez offensively and imo, he could post a higher OBP and SLG, which could make him a .900 OPS catcher. That’s absolutely terrific production from behind the plate.
What’s your beef with Santana anyway?
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a hitter who routinely hits over .320 every year is a perennial all-star, to ever say that someone will hit .320-.340 in the major leagues is absurd… thole is NOT an elite prospect… not yet at least…
i’ll give you the contact ability, but to say he’ll hit even .300 is a to say that he’s going to be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball… PLUS all the scouting reports I have read have indicated that until just recently his defense was below average and he is now just passable
and to echo JP below me, what is your beef with santana?
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I hated Santana...
I would not have placed him in my Top 5!!! I given him plenty of respect.
I just don’t think he is as good as all you beleive. In fact, he is extremely overrated. The Victor Martinez comp is way off-base. Nowhere near that level of hitting, sorry.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why don’t you back it up with some actual evidence (stats, souting reports, etc)?
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was in the process of saying exactly that… but i really didn’t want to turn this into a repeat of that top 25 thread
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't see Thole hitting 10 to 15 HRs a year
He might “accidentally” get up to 10 on a fluky year, but unless he changes his approach/swing mechanics, that won’t happen. His “strike zone mastery” is at the absolute expense of power. On every pitch he chokes up extremely high on the bat handle, and his swing generates no loft.
by jibs on Aug 17, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Metco
Is the only reason why Thole will have a difficult time reaching 15 homers.
Regardless, a .320-.340 catcher with 10-12 homers, and .400+ obp is better than Santana’s future outlook.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thole will not OBP .400 in mlb
he is currently at .401 now. held afloat by his astronomical BABIP in april and may.
his OBP the last 2 years was .371 and .381
last year between 2 stops, Santana’s OBP was .431 and .452 , and this year he’s at .413
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not the only reason
He doesn’t have a swing that generates any backspin/loft/carry. He really only hits grounders and flat line drives. In hitter’s counts he doesn’t sell out for power. Like I said, unless he changes his approach, he’s not going to hit homers in the majors.
And just by googling for Thole right now I found this this interview which supports my observation: http://www.metsfansforever.com/mets_fans_forever/2009/04/q-a-with-josh-thole.html
Will Sommer:
Now in your first three minor league seasons, 2005 – 2007, your batting average was mid-to-high .200s. What changed last season when you hit exactly .300?
Josh Thole:
I think it was just, well I mean, I was just a little more consistent all season, but the biggest thing was, was I just made a little adjustment with my hitting. I just spread out and just stayed in the what I call the two-strike approach and just tried to put the ball in play as much as possible, so I think that I give a lot of credit with that then - - my manger last year, Tim Teufel, really helped me out with that a lot.
by jibs on Aug 17, 2025 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
check out the ld/gb/fb splits
definitely true about his high gb rate
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well apparently
Thole is tony gwynn sr./ ichiro but at the catcher position
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also if you neutralize for luck, that .332/.402/.431 BA drops to a very pedestrian .293/.368/.382, whereas santana actually get’s better due to his relatively low BABIP
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has gap power, to be fair.
That could very well translate to 10-15 HRs in a good environment, which could potentially be the shallow Citi Field right field wall.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2025 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Flowers
Defense wise, Flowers and Santana both need to improve. Offensively, I believe Flowers will hit for a better avg and for more power (30+ HRs).
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
When it comes to defense and chances of sticking at catcher
Flowers isn’t in Santana’s league.
by ETA on Aug 17, 2025 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually
Flowers has improved considerably this year. He isn’t great behind the plate, but has made progress. Like I said, both Santana and Flowers have to continue to improve.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flowers is poor behind the plate
He’s not a even a mediocre defensive player. I doubt he sticks behind the plate in the MLB. Santana’s defense is fairly solid, and definitely better than that of Flowers. Flowers bat is a few ticks below that of Santana’s. The Victor Martinez comp is a pretty good comp, though I don’t think Santana will hit with as much power; that being said, I believe Santana is a 20-25 homer hitter while Martinez is a 25-30 homer hitter. Flowers has the same power potential, but will lack in avg, and obp. Thole is probably just a punch and judy singles hitter in the majors. He projects as a starter if he can handle it defensively or a Jason Kendall without power, starting during his prime but serving as a backup for most of his career.
I’m not the biggest Santana supporter as I said earlier he wouldn’t be in my top 25 if he didn’t repeat last years effort. Now I believe he’s in the top 15 because of his all around package. I don’t think that your reasons are justified in any of your arguments. I believe that you’re being difficult just to be difficult, just to be different. That’s fine and all, but at least make a competent argument.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 18, 2025 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
everyone voting for dewey has to fess up
there’s 2 of you according to the poll.
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 3:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hyperbole much?
“In a few years, AL pitchers will fear him more than Arod.”
Please stop.
by DeJay on Aug 17, 2025 7:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm serious dude
Montero will be the biggest threat in the Yankee lineup within the next 3 years.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
clever
sigh
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a horrible statement.
Arod and Tiexiera are and will be their best bats in the next 3 years. Even with Arods decline.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 18, 2025 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe I’m not understanding this correctly, but this seems like a contradiction to me:
*Rankings on the assumption that the player will remain at their current position long-term.
*Rankings done according to the position the player is currently playing in the minor leagues, and not necessarily the projected future position (i.e. Montero at catcher instead of first).
KBR admitted that he made a mistake concerning Santana and that perhaps he was misinformed. Dewey on the other hand offers no explanation whatsoever about ranking Santana so low and if he’s indeed holding on to the possible move off catcher, it’s been contested several times and proven as nonsense. Montero shouldn’t even be ranked at all if doubts about the ability to stay behind the plate are so important.
Either Dewey is just doing this to “create some discussion” (which is a lame excuse for being recalcitrant), or has some disdain for Carlos Santana which wouldn’t be based on anything factual, but merely personal issues or failure to recognize an elite prospect.
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I like Santana
Just not as much as you guys. I think too many of you are head over heels in love and aren’t objective.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite part of this post
“this time its PERSONAL!!!”
…And then you just presented two lists with no argument or commentary on either
I was hoping for a laughably bad roundtable discussion. This was sort of anticlimactic.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 17, 2025 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LOL
It was done as a joke. There is no need for you to take a personal shots at anyone. Please get over yourself.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
I didn’t agree with your top 100 list but I never posted to take a personal shot at you. It is obvious that you get your kicks making underhanded comments at mine or Dewey’s expense and that is uncalled for. Earlier you stated that you were mad at Dewey and myself because people rec our posts without fail. However, how is that our fault? I asked people NOT to rec this post. Please stop your rude behavior as it is beneath you.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like KBR's list, besides the contradiction
of including Montero, even though the list purports to be one that includes players that will stick long-term at their position. KBR, do you have any sources that suggest Montero is actually going to stick there? From what I’ve read from any industry insiders (callis/goldstein/sickels/law) there’s not really even an outside chance he sticks at catcher long-term.
If you take Montero out of the poll, then I think his list is pretty close. Maybe Castro gets inserted into #5. Santana might hit for a bit more power than Posey, but Posey will likely hit for a higher avg. and have a higher OBP.
I like Flowers. Physically, he actually reminds me a little of A.J. Pierzynski. The K’s will be a concern, but when contact is made he seems to be a fairly decent line drive hitter.
Norris might not stick long-term either, but he apparently has made adjustments and his throwout rate has increased substantially. I think the concern is more the pass balls and blocking pitches in the dirt, but hopefully that can be overcome with more games.
by MightyMoose on Aug 17, 2025 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Montero
The reason I ranked him #1 is because of the criteria we selected. I doubt Montero stays at catcher full time but it is apparent that the Yankees are going to give him every chance to play the position. The following criteria were part of the rules to select the players:
*Rankings on the assumption that the player will remain at their current position long-term.
*Rankings done according to the position the player is currently playing in the minor leagues, and not necessarily the projected future position (i.e. Montero at catcher instead of first).
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is ridiculous
Obvious ballot stuffing against me. Shameful.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm thinking your 11 votes are your cousins or something
nobody is owning up to voting for you
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just noticed the new sig line
So Dewey, you’re actually a 30 year old guy posing a high school student, dating underage girls, and you have a drinking problem? This explains so much now.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 17, 2025 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
aww
looks like someone feels left out for not being included in my sig, lol. ;)
appreciate the compliment tho.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
I had to Wiki several of the references in his sig. Dude, you watch way too much crappy TV.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Aug 18, 2025 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to be clear...again...
Thole vs Santana
Thole will have the better average
Thole will have the better on base percentage
Thole will play better defense
Santana will have more power
Flowers vs Santana
Flowers will have the better average
Flowers will have the better on base percentage
Flowers will play slightly better defense
Flowers will have more power
In each case, I have clearly demonstrated that Thole AND Flowers are better catching prospects than everyone’s precious Santana. Why is this so hard to believe? Jeez.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
do you even bother posting actual numbers?
or does bold font and a stern, straightforward sentence seem to solve everything for you?
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bold ALWAYS wins… at least he didn’t go italic and really blow our minds
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
You haven’t “clearly demonstrated that Thole AND Flower are better catching prospects than everyone’s precious Santana”, all you’ve done is state you believe it will happen. You repeatedly failed to show source material regarding your beef with Santana in the top 25 list, and you haven’t shown anything here to support your position on this topic either. What you’ve done once again is spout off an opinion that goes against the grain. We all get it, you’re edgy and like to be different. Good for you, but you honestly can’t be surprised when people don’t buy into what you say when you won’t back it up with scouting reports, articles, etc. Why should people be “sheep” and just listen to your opinion?
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 17, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i just double-checked the thread
not once does dewey list actual stats. the only numbers he lists are what he thinks Thole will hit in the future.
by daveh33 on Aug 17, 2025 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
based on his current performance (.332 BA, .402 OBP), despite a recent slump.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his “slump” is called regressing to the mean… something that naturally happens when you BABIP .400+ as a catcher for two and a half months
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know you know Thole's batting average.
there is no logical way to rank thole ahead of santana if you look at their advanced stats
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2025 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the only reason I'm asking once more is because I'm dumb or something
But prove all of that?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 17, 2025 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best way to prove it....
Is to see how they perform at the major league level. Until then, we are ALL just projecting.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
santana OBP is over .400
i think santana OBP will be higher then Both of these catchers.
by matthewmafa on Aug 17, 2025 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tyler Flowers = .427 OBP
Carlos Santana = .412 OBP
Thole’s has decreased lately due to a slump and is now at .402
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1) his OBP is decreasing because he isn’t hitting .330 recently
2) he isn’t hitting .330 because he’s regressed from reaching base on over 40% of the balls he puts in play
Go to fangraphs and look at major league BABIP (I’ve been kind of enough to include a link … his April and May BABIP would put him in the top five in the league! He’s simply due for a big regression
I’m really not trying to be a dick by saying this, but maybe if you took a stats course at your community college as a refresher this would appear clearer to you
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is no such thing as the 'due factor'.
its a myth.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for that comment i refer you to my last statement from the previous post… there is NOTHING that suggests he can maintain a .440 BABIP… sure, he could continue to get LUCKY (that is, more batted balls fall in as hits than his true talent suggests) but it simply isn’t likely, and not by a long shot
that is why his regression is DUE, it is expected, it is and will continue to happen… and on a long enough timeline, his BABIP will average out, it will settle towards some mean… i don’t know what that is, but i promise you it’s not over .400… in fact, it’s probably not over the .365 he’s hitting on this season
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry Dewey, not even I can agree with you here
I think in this statement in particular, you’re confusing the “gambler’s fallacy” with the “regression to the mean”. The former is an informal logical fallacy pertaining to relevance. The latter is a an important mathematical concept.
If you flip 10 coins and 9 come up heads, the chance of heads on the 11th flip is still 50:50. The gambler’s fallacy assumes the 11th flip is somehow more likely to be tails since the what happened before was so tails-heavy.
Regression to the mean is a completely different concept. It merely assumes that the likeliest outcome after 100 total flips would be more likely to yield 54/100 heads, since the odds of the subsequent 90 flips (after the first ten) are still each 50:50. So the regression to the mean posits that after a 90% “heads rate” through 10 flips, its much more likely that after 90 more flips that the total percentage will regress closer to 54%.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 18, 2025 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Where do you guys see J.P. Arencibia.....
I know he has had a tough year in AAA, but still has a lot of talent IMO.
by soccerman0 on Aug 17, 2025 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like his power potential
But he has some major flaws that need to be improved upon. I don’t think he would be in my top 10.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Needs to develop plate discipline
If he doesn’t learn to take a pitch, MLB pitchers will eat him alive.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI
Cherry-picking stats for Santana does not legitimately support your argument.
I’ve clearly stated why I like Flowers and Thole over Santana. Saying Thole is lucky is B.S. The kid is an intelligent hitter and knows how to get hits and get on base. No he will not slug for a high %, but what he offers in other areas provides much more value. You guys are seriously underrating Thole by simply saying he is ‘lucky’. You have to be good to be ‘lucky’ folks.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, first of all you don’t understand the meaning of babip apparently, and secondly, you still have not given any legit reasons why you don’t like Santana. Noone is saying you have to like him, but all we want is some evidence supporting your case. First it was the defense, which has been refuted, and now you question his bat, which is absolutely ridiculous.
Please indulge us and elaborate on your valuation of Santana.
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
didnt question his bat cuz its good.... but
just dont think its as good as Thole or Flowers.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You also haven't really given any evidence supporting your claim that Josh Thole's batting average is sustainable
The only real advantage in the component numbers in Thole vs. Santana seems to be K%. So okay, maybe Thole’s a bit more likely to consistently have a high average, assuming he can maintain the low K%. But Santana still walks more, and even with the higher K%, he still has a .290 average with a much more reasonable BABIP, not to mention a solid HR/FB and ISO, and a much better BB%. Its hard to imagine projecting Thole to be putting up higher wOBAs than Santana year to year.
The one other advantage Thole does have is his competence vs. LHP. Santana doesn’t fall off terribly vs. RHP, but he does see a big OPS drop, and for a righty batter, that could be something to watch as he moves up.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 18, 2025 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand all the hating on Thole's average
he has a .356 BABIP with a contact rate well over 90%. Mind you, that’s not a comparison between him and any other prospects. You can’t just say, however, that because his BABIP was .400 over the span of a month, that was a fluke. Plenty of hitters have BABIPs over .400 during the span of months.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Aug 17, 2025 8:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nobody’s saying Thole’s awful, but he has been lucky this year. The argument is that he’s simply not having a better year offensively than Santana, and given both their track records, should not be ranked ahead of him.
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really could care less about Santana
How has Thole been lucky this year? A .350 BABIP with a 92% contact rate. That’s lucky?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Aug 17, 2025 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about a .365 babip and 2 months of over a .400 babip. That’s lucky, and as always the case, you can’t just look at one category. The fact that he hits few linedrives, alot of groundballs and hits for very little power means he’s numbers have been great inflated by his batting average, which is inflated by his babip.
You can’t see that?
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'll be lucky to walk much
as he moves up levels, considering his lack of power. Pitchers arent going to be scared of him hitting groundballs.
by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Low power hasn't stopped Luis Castillo
Effectively Castillo is just waiting for the pitcher to walk him. Taking almost all pitches out of the zone, over half of them in the zone and hoping to accumulate enough balls for a free pass. When he does swing he almost always makes contact, so he rarely strikes out. I wanted to see how it does it. First I looked at how often his swings by the number of strikes.
Swing Rate
-———-—————--————
| Strikes | Castillo | Average |
-———-—————--————
| 0 | 0.129 | 0.291 |
| 1 | 0.322 | 0.489 |
| 2 | 0.536 | 0.600 |
-———-—————--————
So his difference from average is the largest early in the count. By the time he has two strikes he swings at about league average rate, which is how he keeps his strikeouts down.
by Sokojoe on Aug 17, 2025 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
castillo is basically a replacement player… his batting and fielding RAR are 7.9 and his defense is -7.7… almost all of his value comes from his ABs
castillo is an example of a good player who lost a step and adopted a new approach that’s good enough to keep him in an injury-ridden met’s lineup
it’s possible for a guy like him to succeed, but for a high-end prospect is this really the approach you want to see? and i’m genuinely asking… because he’s a replacement player, but he clearly has SOME value
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not making any claims about Thole
I mean obviously the approach I would want in a prospect would include hitting more like Albert Pujols than Luis Castillo, I just wanted to offer a player with low power and good walks. As for his new approach, a younger Luis also had good walk numbers and very low iso’s see 99 and 00 though now he’s learned to cut down the Ks.
by Sokojoe on Aug 17, 2025 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was pointing more to his defense, because yeah, that iso hasn’t changed a whole lot
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not replacement level, that's league average... don't confuse the two...
Castillo was awful last year, but that’s been his only below average year in the last 8 seasons.
The argument against Josh Thole is not that he will be worthless if he becomes Luis Castillo, but rather that the odds of him doing so are almost zero because Luis Castillo is sui generis.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2025 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luis Castillo isnt very good
What happened to Castillo’s approach last year…?
by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
I didn’t say anything about Castillo being “good.” You said
[Thole] will be lucky to walk as he moves up levels, considering his lack of power. Pitchers arent going to be scared of him hitting groundballs.
I replied with an example of a player that walks with low power without luck involved to which you replied he isn’t good, what are you talking about?
by Sokojoe on Aug 17, 2025 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assumed you meant Thole could continue with this approach and be successful at the mlb level (esp. more successful than Santana - the original point of this subthread discussion).
by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes. the whole point of the thread is the rankings
so sokojoe, would you rather have luis castillo sans speed behind the plate? or Carlos Santana and his consistent power and plate discipline? [ie- a consensus top 10 player in the game, and the only reason he isn’t considered the top catching prospect in the game is because of Posey]
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2025 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was having a tangent discussion which happens in a thread of 158 comments
I didn’t realize that the only point of this thread was to go High Fidelity and obsess about subjective ranking system made by two people I know nothing about (no offense, I’m sure Dewey and KBR do fine work.) I don’t understand why you are trying get me to say which one is better when I don’t really care as well as assume I would rather have Thole even though I made no mentioning of liking him at all. You’re looking for an argument, while I just wanted to point out that low power does not always yield low walks.
by Sokojoe on Aug 18, 2025 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, my bad.
i read your comment below this one and realized it after i had already replied to this one
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2025 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JP, your having your own argument
Sam didn’t say anything about Thole being better than Santana or even that Thole was a good prospect. He just asked why is a .350 BABIP with a 92% contact rate considered lucky? Pointing to two high months of a high BABIP doesn’t answer why a .350 or a .365 BABIP with a 92% contact rate is lucky since you’re cherry picking stats by arbitrary dates (in this case dates that coincide with the beginning and end of the months) while ignoring the numbers in the aggregate. And just to cover my bases, I’m not saying Thole is better than Santana nor am I making any claim about Thole’s ability to play baseball.
by Sokojoe on Aug 17, 2025 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think all JP was trying to say was that the .330 avg that dewey was lauding was being fed by a lot of ground balls that happen to find holes… it appears that thole wasn’t exactly smoking balls to wall or even hitting an exceptional amount of line drives… a lot of his ground balls happened to end up in the outfield
this aspect of the debate would easily be answered if batted ball data were available so we could distinguish between bat exit speed instead of binning everything into LD/FB/GB/IFFB
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree until Hit f/x is used at the MiL level
It’s hard to make a definitive claim that BABIP is either luck or not.
by Sokojoe on Aug 17, 2025 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not true
A BABIP of over 400 is luck. The baseline BABIP for the MLB is around 300. That number is made of players ranging from a 255 BABIP to a 360 BABIP. If a player is exceeding the highest BABIP in the majors by several standard deviations, that is luck.
If one believes there is a strong correlation between contact rate and BABIP, they are probably right, but i’m not going to sit and do the math on that one. However, if you look at the leaders there are some similarities.
The stronger coorlation that stands out to me, is the LD% for the high BABIP players. A LD has a 72% chance to be a hit, or something like that. So that would make sense.
The problem with Thole is that he doesn’t have a high LD%, he has a relatively high GB rate, so this isn’t a skill where he is hitting a ton of LD to build a great BABIP. It is luck, because over half of his balls are on the ground.
What helps Thole is that he doesn’t SO a lot, so of the 13% of balls he is putting in play are LD, making his raw LD numbers higher, thus leading to a higher BA.
However, he is still lucky. If you look at the top two GB hitters in baseball you’ll see Casitillo and Jeter. Thole is more like Luis because he lacks the LD and the ISO of Jeter.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2025 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep, that’s exactly what I’ve been saying.
Once again, just for the record, nobody’s saying Thole is a horrible player, but just that his stats have been inflated by a high babip which most likely isn’t sustainable for him, and therefore people are questioning his ranking.
by JP_Frost on Aug 18, 2025 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I don't really care about the ranking
I just wanted to know why you thought the BABIP was unsustainable, not saying I didn’t agree with you. I prefer Metty5 numbers over just stating the cliched high BABIP is luck end statement that doesn’t really tell me anything.
by Sokojoe on Aug 18, 2025 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me neither, which is why in my post below I cited the LD%, GB% and mentioned his strikeout rate.
by JP_Frost on Aug 18, 2025 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But do BABIP and contact rate correlate that strongly?
I understand they relate strongly, and that when they’re both high, can exponentially increase value, but I don’t see why because one is high the other should be high.
Then again, you know I love Thole, but I’m just not sure we have enough to establish him as having the “skills” of a high BABIP player. We do have enough to establish that he has the skills for a high contact rate, but a BABIP regression is still very much a possibility.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 18, 2025 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No they don't correlate as strongly as I'm probably making it out to be
but I don’t trust minor league batted ball data, and after a year of high BABIP and I’m going to start to trust that Thole has good BABIP skills and isn’t benefiting from one giant league-wide collapse of infield defense.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Aug 19, 2025 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thole is precisely the kind of player who one would expect to have a low BABIP
He’s a slow, weak hitter who makes a lot of contact. There are other factors we can’t see (spray, LD rate) but of the ones we do see, about the only positives are decent walk rate and hitting lefthanded.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2025 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very high contact rates are NEGATIVELY correlated with BABIP
Strikeouts are POSITIVELY correlated with BABIP.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2025 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now for some actual numbers
You know what, since you don’t seem to want to do the legwork, let me if you give some numbers.
OPS normalized for luck and park per minorleaguesplits.com:
Thole: .718
Santana: 1.018
wOBA per fangraphs:
Thole: .381
Santana: .419
ISO:
Thole: .098
Santana: .249
BB%
Thole: 10.6
Santana: 17.0
wRAA:
Thole: 15.8
Santana: 31.5
Babip:
Thole .365
Santana: .315
(Flowers: .394)
LD%
Thole: 13.1
Santana: 17.4
GB%
Thole: 55.1
Santana: 37.5
So, let’s see here. Thole has been very lucky this year judging by his babip, he has a rather poor LD% rate, doesn’t hit for much power at all, and hits alot of balls on the ground, hence the inflated babip and batting average. He doesn’t walk as much as Santana, making his OBP more batting average dependent, and while he strikes out far less, the trade off is an insane difference in power output between the two. Going by their wOBA, Santana is almost twice as many runs above average better than Thole, but yeah, Thole’s offense is certainly running circles around Santana’s.
Care to respond Dewey?
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
respond? sure
I like how you conveniently excluded the categories in which Thole owns Santana.
As I said before, cherry-picking stats doesn’t impress me. A lot of effort and proven nothing.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 17, 2025 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what categories does he own santana in? these are all the categories you talked about other than maybe contact rate and defense (which when it comes to evaluating catchers i think we can all agree there is no great metrics)
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What categories are those? I'm sure Frost, as well as me, is listening
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 17, 2025 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned what he’s better at — striking out less. That’s it.
Let’s face it, you have no idea what you’re talking about and just want to be controversial. Very mature!
by JP_Frost on Aug 17, 2025 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Classic post, the guy who has listed tons of different stats is “cherry picking” and proven nothing, yet you posting your opinion on guys you’ve never seen play before while not backing it up statistically is worth more.
Thanks Dewey, is there any wonder why you’re the laughing stock of the board?
by Southwest on Aug 18, 2025 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the BABIP issue
I think Thole’s higher than normanl BABIP can be explained by his unique batted ball profile that was mentioned earlier on in the post. Thole has a GB rate of 55 % versus just 32 % flyballs. Since GB BABIP is around .230 compared to .140 for FB, than it makes sense that he would put up a higher BABIP even though .365 is still a bit high.
Of course, I am not advocating for Thole as a top 5 catcher. The empty average puts him well below others for me. I really do not see him walking as much in the MLB, for if he offers so little power, there is no reason for pitchers not to throw him strikes.
by tdot mariner fan on Aug 18, 2025 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
now
someones going to bring up luis castillo again
by matthewmafa on Aug 18, 2025 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my top 10 cathcers
1. Buster Posey
2. *Jesus Montero
3. Carlos Santana
4. Jason Castro
5 *Tyler Flowers
6. Derek Norris
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Wilson Ramos
9. Josh Donaldson
10. Josh Thole / Angel Salome
- means I don’t think they’ll necessarily stay at catcher
-J.P. Arencibia hasn’t had a good enough season for me to be current top 10 IMO.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 17, 2025 9:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great list
Our top 6 are very similar and I love the Donaldson call. What do you think about Kyle Skipworth?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skipworth
Believe it or not Skipworth would be #12 or so for me…..not too much lower
I still really like him shows plenty of power for Fla. needs to get on-base % up and batting ave.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 17, 2025 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilson Ramos?
Wow. Um, ok.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2025 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FIne you can just about place
Willin Rosario of the Rockies in there over Ramos.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 18, 2025 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
He still has lots of upside but high school catchers are such a crap shoot. Twelve seems about right.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 10:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Since the topic was allegedly to discuss catching prospects
I just want to mention that people shouldn’t forget about Hank Conger. He surely still has question marks surrounding his health and his ability to stay behind the plate, but he’s made great strides on his walk rate this year. A .361 wOBA from a 21 year old catcher in AA isn’t too shabby, and he was known for good raw power at the time he was drafted so there could be more in-game HR potential down the road.
by jibs on Aug 17, 2025 11:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wasn’t there some serious questions about whether he could stick behind the plate? I seem to recall his getting some time at 1B and DH… I could be wrong though, it’s getting late and I’m too lazy to look up old scouting reports
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why I said
“He surely still has question marks surrounding his health and his ability to stay behind the plate”.
But for what it’s worth, this season he’s caught 73 games and DHed 29 games with no games at 1B.
by jibs on Aug 17, 2025 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry, i just read the health part and may have skipped straight to the wOBA part
by gorilla_baller on Aug 17, 2025 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great call
I guess since he has been hyped for so long that people tend to forget/underrate him.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2025 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thole = Marson
Marson AA - .314/.430/.419/.849 - .387 BABIP - 12.9% LD - .391 wOBA - .102 ISO
Thole AA - .332/.402/.431/.833 - .356 BABIP - 13.1% LD - .381 wOBA - .098 ISO
Seriously was Lou Marson ever viewed as a top 3 catcher prospect in baseball? And there aren’t even doubts about whether he can stick at catcher.
by Southwest on Aug 18, 2025 3:23 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That's a really great comp
Marson is exactly like Thole with a better glove… but, sadly, people here did once upon a time try to make arguments like this for Marson…
by alskor on Aug 18, 2025 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Real Question
Is why anyone who’s been around this site for just a few months would ever try winning an argument with a guy who would rather draft Kyle Gibson over Steven Strasburg at #1???
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Aug 18, 2025 8:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pre 2008
I could see the logic for that early in the 2008 season. At that time Baseball America had Gibson going #1 according to their handbook, however that obviously changed after Strasburg’s amazing 2008 season. Gibson’s hard luck 2009 didn’t help either!!! ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 18, 2025 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright folks
I think we need to put this issue to bed now. Your blood pressures are getting too high.
Bottom line, Thole is underrated and Santana is overrated.
Let’s agree to disagree and move on. The 1B Rankings should be released soon.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 18, 2025 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if anything
your refusal to acknowledge Santana’s stats has convinced me that he’s under-rated
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2025 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely. Perhaps it’s best to completely avoid any future fanshot Dewey makes.
by JP_Frost on Aug 18, 2025 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if anything
You have now made Thole the single most overrated Prospect in baseball by saying hes better then santana
by matthewmafa on Aug 18, 2025 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why?
Why do these kinds of controversies always seem to erupt when i’m on the road? Why is that? Hmmm????
Settle this down.
I can’t see any way to rank Santana below Thole. I just don’t buy it.
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2025 9:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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