Better MLB Career?

by saltybiscuits on May 29, 2025 12:04 AM EDT Comment 23 comments

Justin Smoak, 1B TEX

Michael Stanton, OF FLA

Curious to hear your thoughts on this.

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Comments

Smoak

-Safer bet/Closer
-Will hit for a much higher AVG than Stanton

by alskor on May 29, 2025 1:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Smoak is much more patient and a polished college bat.

by asyouwish33 on May 29, 2025 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

batting average

means nothing

by richieabernathy on May 29, 2025 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You sir...

are sadly mistaken.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on May 29, 2025 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

batting average is a component that will happen naturally when the other components are there. it certainly does not win baseball games. but hey, juan pierre has a better career batting average than barry bonds. saying “nothing” is a little drastic, but you know the point, and in the debate between these two, getting on base and walk rate is a component that is actually relevant.

by richieabernathy on May 29, 2025 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are way too certain of your opinion

you might not be wrong, but it ain’t as clear cut as you seem to think it is.

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on May 29, 2025 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

i’ll take it down a notch, especially since there are so many variables like base running, defense, etc., but i mean to say batting average is way down on the list of relevant offensive measures.

by richieabernathy on May 29, 2025 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's crazy

Batting AVG is a skill and a very important one. Its a less USEFUL stat than looking at OBP - but lets not forget it makes up the lion’s share of OBP.

Smoak will hit for a significantly higher AVG than Stanton and he’ll do it regularly. MUCH higher. That’s worth something. A lot, actually. Theyre both patient hitters, but Stanton isnt going to walk that much more than Smoak (if at all!) that he can make up 50 points of AVG/OBP with walks on a regular basis. Bottom line, Smoak will be getting on base at a higher clip than Stanton and the major reason will be his ability to hit for a higher AVG consistently.

by alskor on May 29, 2025 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

part of the reason he’ll hit for a higher average is because his hits will count for more batting average points since he’ll have less at bats because he has taken more walks because he is more patient at the plate.

by richieabernathy on May 29, 2025 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

I actually think their walk rates will probably be pretty close. They have been so far, certainly (though translation to the majors is obviously an open question given the age, HS/college and all the other differences).

The difference in their OBP will overwhelmingly be because of Smoak’s superior contact hitting ability. Its a skill. Not just luck attached to his walk rate.

by alskor on May 29, 2025 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont think you really want to argue that hitting for contact/hitting for AVG isnt a skill

It absolutely is and has been shown to be many times.

This is a different argument than saying looking at batting AVG is less useful than looking at OBP…

by alskor on May 29, 2025 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know

you said that twice.

by richieabernathy on May 29, 2025 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You responded again after the first post

Sorry, was trying to clarify.

by alskor on May 29, 2025 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see Mike Stanton's best season or two comparing similary....

With the 2009 version of Matt Holliday on the A’s

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 29, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stanton is one hell of a wild card, so any of these types of things which include him are rather pointless. Stanton may flame out, may become a mlb player with a lot of power, and below average contact and good defense, or may become an absolute monster—and each scenario has a very real plausibility to it.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on May 29, 2025 3:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you

are gonna get blasted in the ass either way

by son.of.sourman on May 29, 2025 3:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Smoak

But I think you should always choose the guy who has a better BB/K rate, and in this case, Smoak is way better. I think BB/K rate is a good stat to go on especially for minor leaguers in chance for sustained long term success.

by DJSlam on May 29, 2025 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks all

I appreciate your feedback

I tend to agree - wanted to see if the slight chance stanton reaches his maximum potential (which could be otherworldly) made him more intriguing over the course of a career.

i certainly understand the BB/K component though.

by saltybiscuits on May 29, 2025 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

is it really that hard

to write 75 cogent words? You can’t string together a few full sentences to give context around the question. Or what are your initial thoughts? Nothing?

Just cutting and pasting?

Why do you think there’s a 75 word limit? Probably just force people to actually think before they post a question.

Smoak

by Galt on May 29, 2025 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

eh

eom

by wobatus on May 29, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry professor galt

It really is as simple as it reads, which of those two players will have a better MLB career. I know ‘better’ is subjective but that is why I want to hear people’s opinions.

what exactly did you want me to say in addition? everyone obviously knows these two prospects.

get off your high horse.

by saltybiscuits on May 30, 2025 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stanton

I’ll be one of the few and go with Stanton. I’ve questioned him a lot last year and the beginnning of this year. But his age/level, power, progression is really showing a lot right now. Yes there is more risk to him, but I see a player who is really coming into his own and has immense potential.

by hybrid on May 30, 2025 1:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well

stanton is the bigger risk but a far bigger potential reward, he could end up becoming a superstar easily in CF with all 5 of his tools showing up. But, hard to say at this point

smoak is the safe bet

by Fishfan79 on May 30, 2025 11:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs