Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com projects the first 20 picks

by RoyalsRetro on May 28, 2025 4:03 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

Mayo: Projecting the first 20 picks

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
Was, is, and will continue to be the top guy.

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina
As stated above, this continues to make sense. The only thing that could change it would be a money issue, though the M's continue to scout some of the advanced arms, like Aaron Crow.

3. San Diego Padres: Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
It sounds like there's a split in Padres-town, with some wanting the college lefty and some wanting the toolsy high school outfielder Donavan Tate. Aaron Crow continues to be scouted heavily here as well. There wasn't enough to change the pick ... yet.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats
The Pirates aren't definitely taking a pitcher, but with the strength of the Draft being on the mound, it does make some sense. Their general manager was at Crow's last outing, along with some other GMs who will be picking in the top 10. The other side of that coin, of course, is that the Pirates could take a bat here, thinking the pitching depth will extend to their sandwich-round pick and beyond. If that's the case, USC shortstop Grant Green is in the mix.
Last week's projection: Alex White

5. Baltimore Orioles: Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.
The thinking is still pitching here, and some of the college arms are probably still in the mix. But the Orioles have really been on some of the top high school arms, namely Jacob Turner, from Missouri, and Wheeler. Like the Pirates, it's possible Green is still being discussed. With rumored bonus demands following Turner right now, we'll go with the seemingly more signable Wheeler.
Last week's projection: Crow

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Comments

No Tate in the first 20 picks? Interesting…

by jfish26101 on May 28, 2025 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He has a ton of leverage with his football scholarship.

And he’s demanding a ton of money. I could see it.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on May 28, 2025 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Padres

If they are gonna take a non-HS pitcher, it would be Crow, not Oliver.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on May 28, 2025 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where is Oliver connected to the Padres here?

by jfish26101 on May 28, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OOPS!

My bad, I meant to say Mike Minor. Hmm, why is Oliver on my mind, lol.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on May 28, 2025 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I think there will be a lot of upset Padre fans if Minor is the guy they call at 3…and rightly so I might add. No knock on him, he just isn’t the 3rd best player in the draft.

by jfish26101 on May 28, 2025 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tony Sanchez at 12 to KC?

Wow, does anyone else have him going nearly that high? I hadn’t heard higher than Boston.

by aap212 on May 28, 2025 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sanchez

i can see projecting a reach in this draft, but why would you project the royals to be that team and especially for a college player? they have been one of the biggest spenders in recent years and take the best player available. they have also taken a lot of high school players. i think tate would be a much better fit here.

by fewgoodcards on May 28, 2025 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's an interesting call for Tate

And it sure makes more sense than the Sanchez thing.

by aap212 on May 28, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tate to Padres at 3

by pffriberg on May 28, 2025 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Grant Green dropping to 19?

No way.

Say something funny.

by muffinpryde on May 28, 2025 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not likely, but possible.

From what I’ve read, his stock has taken a hit (BA has him ranked 13th) however his bonus demands have not (still wants 6 million and a ML deal). The prevailing wisdom as of right now has him and Tate falling due to multiple factors.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on May 29, 2025 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tate

i think KC could be the team to pop Tate if he starts to fall. first, they obviously haven’t been afraid to dish out the money the past few drafts. second, mike arbuckle joined the staff this past winter…and I don’t know exactly how much he was involved in the Phillies drafts…but they obviously loved them some super toolsy guys. plus there should be some extra money available with no 2nd round pick.

complete speculation here.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on May 29, 2025 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It would make sense based on the way they drafted last year.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on May 29, 2025 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pads

Wow, I have heard rumblings about them taking Minor at #3. If they were to do that it could really harm that franchise. They have had such awful drafts recently and Minor at #3, probably a whole round early, could be disastrous to that franchise.

I know they are trying to cut costs and all, but Crow at that spot would be a bargain, and he would only be about 2 years away. Quick impact, relatively low cost. You get the same thing with Gibson.

I will really feel awful for them if they take Minor there.

Also, no way Wheeler goes to the Orioles at #5. If Gibson or Tate fall to the O’s they will take one of them, or even Matzek, but no way Wheeler.

by backtocali on May 29, 2025 10:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

minor

minor would be a huge reach at 3, but he wouldn’t be going a round too early. the guy will be a first round pick.

by fewgoodcards on May 29, 2025 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minor

…is climbing up a lot of lists - I’ve talked to a few experts who suggested he’s going to go top 15. If the Padres like the college pitcher route, I like Crow A LOT more than Minor - but if the Padres do not take Minor don’t be surprised if he goes 12-15…

by pffriberg on May 29, 2025 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minor

Jim Callis has also heard Minor to the Padres at 3, and says he expects him to go in the first 10-15 picks so it is an overdraft and I wouldn’t be happy if I was a Padres fan but it is not as big of a leap as you say.

Also there seems to be a very good chance that the Orioles could pass on Tate because of his bonus demands and signability issues.

by DeJay on May 29, 2025 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can’t remember who it was (I want to say it was DePodesta) but I read someone say there really is no such thing as an overdraft. Now I think there is if you are taking someone a round or more ahead of where they were projected to go but he basically said GMs/scouting directors go into the draft with their board of guys and every team wants to get as many of their guys as possible. When your pick comes up, you can consider whether a player might fall to your next pick but it is pretty much impossible to know with any amount of certainty whether that will happen. So if the Padres like Minor that much and are certain he wont fall to their next pick, they should take him.

Don’t get me wrong, like my earlier statement says, I don’t think he is the 3rd best player in the draft but I think people need to keep some of those types of things in mind. If I’ve seen player X 20 times and had all of my importan execs out to see him, I’ve spoken with his family/coaches, I’ve invested a good deal of time/money already in getting to know him and still feel confident in him, why should I pass when there is next to no chance of him falling to my next pick?

by jfish26101 on May 29, 2025 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No I agree with you. If a team thinks X player is the best player available and really want them in their system but don’t think that X player will be their by their next pick then you can’t fault them taking him, but I just can’t see how Minor is the 3rd best player in this draft pool.

by DeJay on May 29, 2025 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs