2010 Top 10 Prospects
I'm not sure if this was done already, but I am curious as to who you guys think will be the top 10 prospects for 2010. This does not include anyone that has not been drafted yet (ex. Stephen Strasburg).
Mine would be as follows:
- Justin Smoak
- Pedro Alvarez
- Madison Bumgarner
- Eric Hosmer
- Rick Porcello
- Neftali Feliz
- Mike Moustakas
- Jason Heyward
- Buster Posey
- Brian Matusz
My one sleeper pick is Michael Main. I think he has the stuff to be a dominant SP at the major league level, and if all comes together this year he can be in the top 10.
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Interesting..
pretty bold on Smoak, although I think he will be in the top 10
I wouldnt be surpriused if Matusz and Feliz and Procello alllose eligibility this year.
Also, cant forget about Strasburg
mine would look like:
1) Feliz (assuming still eligible)
2) Bumgarner
3) Starsburhg
4) Heyward
5) Smoak
6) Moustakas
7) G. Beckham
8) B. Posey
9) Chris Tillman
10) Lars Anderson
I may have to defend Anderson over Hosmer, and leaving Alvarez off, but that is really just personal preference at this point
I think Matusz and Porcello wont be eligibile and probably not Cahill or Anderson either.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 1:01 PM EDT
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You think Matusz could pitch 50 MLB innings...?
That would surprise me…
by alskor on
Mar 11, 2026 3:38 PM EDT
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gut feeling...
Matusz would probably bump Smoak down on my list.
I just think he will carve up AA to the point that the front office will want to display him with Weiters as “the future”..like I said, gut feeling
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 4:31 PM EDT
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I agree that he probably could...
Talent wise, yes…
I dont know why they would want to rush him onto the 40 man and start his service time clock and waste an option in a year where they almost certainly arent making the playoffs…
by alskor on
Mar 11, 2026 4:38 PM EDT
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Matusz signed a major league deal
He’s already on the 40-man.
But given how the Orioles treated Wieters, I think there’s virtually no chance that Matusz sees the majors this year.
by dkdc on
Mar 11, 2026 5:02 PM EDT
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3 pitchers at the top seems aggressive considering all the things that can go wrong
But it’s certainly a decent possibility
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 11, 2026 3:51 PM EDT
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Good point.
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by t ball on
Mar 11, 2026 4:12 PM EDT
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i probably dont disagree
because i am big believer in pitcher attrition rate…BUT, you cant rank a hitter ahead of someone because the pitcher might get hurt, ya know?
All 3 of those SP have the ability to be legitimate top 5 SP in MLB in my mind.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 4:29 PM EDT
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Matusz
Based what I’ve seen, he’ll definitely be eligible for 2010. One report from MASN has BAL shutting him down in September, but thats a ways off and a lot can happen between now and then.
I’d say G.Beckham has a much greater chance of NOT being eligible than Matusz.
by rdf8585 on
Mar 11, 2026 1:43 PM EDT
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i might agree with beckham
havent heard anything like that about matusz though. if he is eligible he would probably make it in my top 5
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 2:23 PM EDT
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Main jumping into a top 10 overall ranking
would be a massive jump.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on
Mar 11, 2026 2:16 PM EDT
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My list
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Jason Hayward
5. Rick Porcello
6. Neftali Feliz
7. Gordon Beckham
8. Mike Moustakas
9. Mike Stanton
10. Jarrod Parker
by byronlhsdrmr on
Mar 11, 2026 2:23 PM EDT
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why..
would Feliz drop or stay the same from where he is on most lists?
Also, Starsburg being #1 overall is hard to believe since he wont sign until the deadline so probably wont have ANY pro experience at all.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 2:24 PM EDT
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If Strasburg keeps this up
you could make an argument for it, though I personally would wait for some pro experience to put him that high.
Main won’t make the top 10. I expect him to be in the top 20 or 30, though.
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by t ball on
Mar 11, 2026 3:10 PM EDT
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I see no reason he has to do anything in the pros
The only way Strasburg is the #1 prospect is if he waits until August to sign. Otherwise he’ll be in Washington baffling the NL East. He’s probably the best pitching prospect to ever come out of college. His numbers are absolutely mind numbing. His K/BB over 10/1. K/9-19.9!!!! He’s striking out 20 batters every 9 innings. H/9- 5.75. BB/9- 1.77. He’s faced 78 hitters this year and 45 have been struck out. Oh and his fastball is sitting at 98 and regularly touching 101 accompanied by a plus curve.
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by Tyler on
Mar 11, 2026 3:25 PM EDT
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no one cares
about college stats.
I am as excited about him as anyone else. BUT think about what Bumgarner or Feliz would do at the same age (when they reach that age) to college hitters…they will both probably be in the majors by the time they would see their junior year in collgege..think about that.
Starsburg might be the best college pitcher of all time, but he probably isnt the best prospect of all time.
You cant give him the nod of Bum and Feliz based on college stats, and his scouting reports really arent that far off from Feliz and Bumgarners
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 4:35 PM EDT
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Explain why pro experience matters?
One scout said he is better than AJ Burnett right now. That sounds absurd, then you consider he’s almost universally considered a better prospect than Mark Prior (who never made any prospect list because he was promoted to the show so fast), does everything better than Prior and Prior went from college baseball almost straight to the show and dominated until Dusty and a variety of other injuries broke him.
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by Tyler on
Mar 11, 2026 5:11 PM EDT
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First, that's just a single scout.
In scouting circles, you can generally throw out the highest and lowest opinions on the market, because it’s based on a love/hate bias towards a player. Strasburg is a great prospect, but he’s not the best pitcher that’s ever come on the pro baseball scene. And while Prior was great, he also faced much stiffer college competition. For example, the Stanford lineup in 2001 included Ryan Garko, Sam Fuld, Carlos Quentin, Chris O’Riordan, Jonny Ash, and more guys that were drafted. He was squaring off against Jeremy Guthrie on those Friday nights. That’s worlds apart from Strasburg’s competition now. If you were to put Strasburg in the Pac-10, he might not even equal Prior’s numbers from 2001. Just to keep things in perspective.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 11, 2026 8:10 PM EDT
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Sure, but there are plenty of scouting reports from multiple sources
saying his fastball is legitimately sitting at 97+ and touching 101 with regularity. He’s also got a plus curve. These aren’t fast guns and it’s not coming out of one place. Every scouting report I’ve seen has him with plus command. And his 10/1 K/BB backs that up.
And, it’s not like he doesn’t have any experience against high levels of competition. He’s the only college pitcher to make the Olympic team in since they started allowed pro’s to play. Davey Johnson choose him to start the most important game the US played in China against the Cuban national team because he was so impressed.
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by Tyler on
Mar 11, 2026 8:38 PM EDT
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I'm saying you should discount the Burnett part.
I’m right there with you in knowing that his scouting reports are reliably consistent. However, it was one scout that said he was better than Burnett, and you can basically discount that opinion. He probably will be better than Burnett quite easily in the long-run, barring injuries, but he’s not that good now.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 11, 2026 8:41 PM EDT
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Fair enough.
But I’m saying as crazy as it sounds, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he will be better than Burnett this season. Honestly, Burnett projects to have a mid-to-upper 3 ERA/FIP whatever you want to use. I think Strasburg, if he signs early enough has at least a better than average chance of doing that or better.
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by Tyler on
Mar 11, 2026 9:10 PM EDT
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ok?
Feliz has almost the exact same scouting report, upper 90s FB with plus slider.
You are letting his dominance on the college scene dictate where he should be ranked. Like I said, he would be a top 3 guy for me. But, if he has zero pro experience idk that I would rank him ahead of guys with similar scouting reports and have dominated in the minors.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 12:59 PM EDT
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He doesn't have almost the exact same scouting report.
Strasburg consistently throws harder with movement. His curve is also consistently a plus pitch where Feliz can struggle with his curve at times. Strasburg also have very good command, Feliz struggles from time to time with his command. Strasburg’s scouting report is better all the way around.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 5:17 PM EDT
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are you serious?
everyone knows Feliz throws a slider, not curve. Buy a clue man.
Also, its easy to have good command when you are pitching against San Diego and not AA players as a 20 year old.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 8:42 PM EDT
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BA doesn't!
His secondary pitches both have potential. He throws a power curveball that sometimes reaches 83-84 mph, and it’s a plus pitch with 11-to-5 break when he stays on top of it.
So there you go.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 8:48 PM EDT
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ok?
so at first you say he struggles with his “curve” at times and now it is a plus pitch.
my original point stands.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:39 PM EDT
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How are those two things mutally exclusive?
A guy can’t have a plus pitch and struggle with it at times?
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:50 PM EDT
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agreed
he certainly can. but, your point in the statement was to differentiate between Strassburgs stuff and Feliz’s. You somehow forgot to include his breaking ball (whatever we are calling it) does grad out as plus, just like Strassburg’s..not to mention he is a few years younger.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:55 PM EDT
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Fair enough.
My point there wasn’t clear, I’ll concede that. My point was that Strasburg’s curve is consistently plus, where Feliz’s breaking pitch has flashed plus, but can be inconsistent.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 10:08 PM EDT
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Strasburg has a good argument for #1 right now and he hasn't even been drafted yet
Other prospects have been named #1 with little or no pro experience. Barring an injury, or something stupid like David Price or Matt Weiters losing their rookie eligiblity, Straburg should be #1, even if he doesn’t play, even if someone else puts up a gigantic year, and even if Yu Darvish gets posted.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Mar 11, 2026 9:58 PM EDT
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*not losing their rookie eligibility
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Mar 11, 2026 9:59 PM EDT
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Because he's the best pitching prospect to come along since King Felix
and perhaps the best college pitching prospect ever?
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 5:20 PM EDT
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you
arent allowed to talk anymore after arguing against Feliz’s scouting report and not even know what pitches he throws lol.
by the way, his SLIDER grades out as plus.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 8:43 PM EDT
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I'll talk about whomever I choose and I got my scouting report from Baseball America.
Particularly with breaking pitches, when pitchers are still young and aren’t fully developed, their breaking pitch can be kind of an in between pitch, often referred too as a slurve.
Also, I never said his POWER CURVE (I can use shift too!) wasn’t projected to be a plus pitch or that it didn’t flash plus, I said it wasn’t consistent. Again, from Baseball America:
Sometimes Feliz drops his arm slot, causing his stuff to flatten out. He’s still fine-tuning his breaking ball, which at times becomes a slurve.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 8:57 PM EDT
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From his league scouting report from Baseball America
His hard breaking ball shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch and is at its best when he stays on top of it and achieves curveball action, but he tends to slow down his arm and drop his elbow, resulting in a flatter slurve
Although admittedly his breaking pitch (apparently scouts consistently don’t know what type of pitches he throws as well as you do) became more consistent in AA.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:01 PM EDT
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Basically you're flipping out and calling me an idiot
over semantics. A power curve in the low-80’s and a slider aren’t that far off from each other. Get over yourself.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:11 PM EDT
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.
1) I would suggest working on putting your thoughts together enough to make one post…rather than thinking about it and 10 minutes later realizing you left something out lol
2) yes I am flipping out, I am sitting at my computer pulling out my hear because someone I dont know and never will meet dosent know what he/she is talking about
3) I suggest not going on one “scouting report” since BA dosent even do their own top 10s.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:42 PM EDT
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BA doesn't do their own top 10's?
Yes they do, it’s just not a collaborative effort like the Top-100 is. One writer is assigned a certain number of teams and does the teams individually.
Secondly, I did use two scouting reports, which is why there are two posts. One was from their league scouting reports and their other is the teams Top-10. The League reports are done by different people.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:49 PM EDT
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i am sorry..
but you are wrong…look at the top 10 prospects page and tell me how many of those guys work for BA
For example,
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267482.html
Tracy Ringolsby is the beat writer for the Denver Post
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:58 PM EDT
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Aaron Fitt, who did Texas Top-10 does work for BA.
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by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 10:01 PM EDT
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he is
you are right, but just so you know, his main specialty is college.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 10:09 PM EDT
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OK
A: Stephen Strasburg is the best.
B: Feliz would be good too if he faced college hitters.
A: Strasburg’s stuff is better.
B: Feliz’ stuff is just as good.
A: Feliz’ curveball is inconsistent.
B: Feliz is younger and throws a plus slider.
C: It’s a slurve.
A: Baseball America says Strasburg commands his breaking pitch better.
B: I disagree with that particular writer.
Much better.
Personally, I don’t like Feliz’ 4.0 K/9(4.6 at AA) or the Rangers’ track record with young pitchers.
On the other hand, there are those that believe Strasburg is Mark Prior waiting to happen(in a bad way).
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Mar 13, 2026 2:05 AM EDT
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Rangers track record
is not the problem most think. It has been ages since they’ve had enough pitching talent in their system to overcome attrition. They traded away some of the better arms and there was little to nothing left when guys like Jovanny Cedeno got hurt. There is now so much talented pitching in the system that when Hurley goes down they don’t skip a beat.
Whatever development problems they’ve had were FAR outweighted by poor drafts, poor scouting, and injuries. Since about 2006 the drafting, international signings, and trades have stocked the system so that the usual attrition will not decimate the system.
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by t ball on
Mar 13, 2026 12:11 PM EDT
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well
Danks and Volquez leaving and magically figuring it out is a little damning.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 12:57 PM EDT
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Not really.
Danks never got a shot in TX before he left and was highly regarded. The cutter that he learned from Buehrle has helped him, but he would have been a good pitcher in Texas had he stayes. Volquez was rushed at first, but figured some things out in 2007 and was poised to breakout before leaving TX.
They didn’t magically figure something out, they fulfilled the potential everyone thought they had. TX traded them for good returns, though the McCarthy trade hasn’t worked out so far with his injuries.
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by t ball on
Mar 13, 2026 2:13 PM EDT
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The cutter that he learned from Buehrle has helped him, but he would have been a good pitcher in Texas had he stayes.
The cutter is his best pitch, and I doubt he would have been very good at all w/o it.
by rglass44 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:20 PM EDT
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that is a convenient answer..
from a person defending the rangers, please understand. most people dont few things going down like that. there is a reason they were traded haha
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:47 PM EDT
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I've said this before
There is a big difference between a track record of developing pitchers and a track record of recognizing and keeping those pitchers.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on
Mar 13, 2026 2:52 PM EDT
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I don't deny there have been problems
but by FAR the biggest problem has been a lack of enough talent to develop. They didn’t have any room for error. They made errors and suffered from having zero talent to fall back on.
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by t ball on
Mar 13, 2026 4:23 PM EDT
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Um
Tracy Ringolsby is a co-founder of Baseball America.
But otherwise, good point.
by aCone419 on
Mar 13, 2026 11:28 AM EDT
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Also, BA editors edit all of the pieces
As well as recruit the particular people to cover each team
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 13, 2026 1:43 PM EDT
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thats fine
while i didnt know that, the other 10 or so writers who dont worykfor BA who did the top 10s wern’t co founers lol.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:49 PM EDT
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Disagree
Callis has a hand in all their rankings and scouting reports (Manuel and Lingo too probably; that is why they are called "editors"). They aren’t going to be publishing information they don’t support. That they sometimes hand over the grunt work to beat writers (who are almost always still affiliated with BA in some capacity) does not make the end result any less theirs.
by aCone419 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:56 PM EDT
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you dont know what you are talking about
I am familiar with their operation in Durham, and I will leave it at that.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 3:04 PM EDT
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You're familiar with their operation
And know that the editors don’t edit the newspaper? Um, something doesn’t jive here
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 13, 2026 6:34 PM EDT
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well...
I have Feliz around 10 in 2008 so, 6 is a jump. As for Strasburg, I feel as though he is a better prospect than Bumgarner, the fact that he does not have any pro experience yet, does not change the fact that when he does, he will be the best prospect on anyone’s list.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Mar 11, 2026 2:54 PM EDT
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Feliz at 10
I guess that explains where you are coming from lol
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 3:17 PM EDT
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My top 10
1. Rangers guy
2. Rangers guy
3. Rangers guy
4. Strasburg
5. Rangers guy
6. Rangers guy
7. Bumgarner
8. Hosmer
9. Rangers guy
10. Rangers guy
HM: a few Rangers guys
by DrunkIrish on
Mar 11, 2026 3:35 PM EDT
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Are you crazy?
Rangers guy is too low.
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by t ball on
Mar 11, 2026 4:14 PM EDT
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Can you use real names?
I hate these stupid e-cab and o-her and a-hole’s. Just type the name.
Sick of the tired unimaginative nicknames is all…
by tuna411 on
Mar 11, 2026 4:17 PM EDT
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+1
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on
Mar 11, 2026 4:17 PM EDT
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Timothy LaMar Beckhem
Sorry, I just don’t want to have to type all that out and Gordon stole his last name.
by rglass44 on
Mar 12, 2026 10:50 AM EDT
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jesus montero
if he could improve his defense this year to be good enough to get by he could be top 10
by krgrecw on
Mar 11, 2026 4:37 PM EDT
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If he suddenly becomes a decent defensive catcher
Sure. He’s not that far behind Wieters at that point… but right now there is no chance of him sticking at catcher…
by alskor on
Mar 11, 2026 4:40 PM EDT
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The Yankees still are pushing that he will stay at catcher
http://lohud.com/article/20090308/SPORTS01/903080345/-1/SPORTS
Granted, people within the organization would never publicly state that he has no chance of sticking at the position at this stage in the game, but Girardi and Tony Pena both had positive feedback on his defensive progress.
“That kid, he will catch in the majors I believe,” Pena said. “I’ve seen the improvement in a year. He has worked at it. He blocks balls better and he’s a better receiver. He always has had a strong arm. But he still needs to work on his footwork.”
Yankees manager Joe Girardi, himself a catcher, told Montero a few days ago that he is blocking balls in the dirt better than anybody else in camp. Girardi has noticed a significant improvement since last year.
“I think he has made some big strides,” Girardi said. “We need to keep him going that way, too. … I think in his mind if he thought he was (changing positions), we wouldn’t be seeing the progress that we have.”
by jibs on
Mar 12, 2026 10:32 AM EDT
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ok course they are
he has more trade value at catcher, since Tex will be playing 1B for almost the next decade for the Yankees. Dont be naive.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 1:02 PM EDT
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Maybe you missed the part where I said
“Granted, people within the organization would never publicly state that he has no chance of sticking at the position at this stage in the game”
by jibs on
Mar 12, 2026 2:34 PM EDT
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Jeez
Let’s not re-litigate the Jesus Montero as catcher argument in every thread. K?
by FI2 on
Mar 12, 2026 1:59 PM EDT
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These were new quotes (within the last week)
And it seemed relevant to the discussion at hand.
by jibs on
Mar 12, 2026 2:33 PM EDT
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New quotes dn = new information
I don’t mean any offense by this, I just think it’s time to let this thing play itself out on the field.
by FI2 on
Mar 12, 2026 6:05 PM EDT
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Yes, it was new infomation
It was information stating that the organization feels (or at least publicly states) that he has made significant defensive strides since a year ago at this time. It was not a blanket statement that they are not going to move him off the position, there was actual content about specific aspects of his defense.
by jibs on
Mar 13, 2026 10:01 AM EDT
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Yankees manager Joe Girardi, himself a catcher, told Montero a few days ago that he is blocking balls in the dirt better than anybody else in camp.
That must make Jose Molina feel bad…
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 3:42 PM EDT
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Catcher or no catcher
I can see a scenario where he pounds the ball in 2009, makes a jump to AA and leaps into the top 10 even if he is just considered a 1B. Noone seems to question the bat, only the D. Catcher/No Catcher could be the difference in being #10 or #1 if he absolutely rakes in 09.
by guru4u on
Mar 13, 2026 2:22 AM EDT
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A healthy Cole Rohrbough
Will be in the Top 10! Mark my words!!!
by Jay212033 on
Mar 11, 2026 5:09 PM EDT
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i dont think
he has that type of ceiling..i can definitley see him making the top 30 if he throws 150 innings.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 5:12 PM EDT
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Berfore this season
He was actually rated higher than Hanson so I think his ceiling is pretty decent!
by Jay212033 on
Mar 11, 2026 6:27 PM EDT
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top 5 sleepers
These are my top 5 sleepers that have a chance at the top 10
1. Michael Main (as noted before)
2. Matt Dominguez
3. Freddy Freeman
4. Jarrod Parker
5. Carlos Truinfel (if he puts it all together)
by Summa Slugga on
Mar 11, 2026 5:21 PM EDT
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I'd be very surprised by the last one
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 11, 2026 5:59 PM EDT
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+1
Hard to see C-Truin as a top 5 guy, but I could definitely see M-Dom doing it.
by gogotabata on
Mar 11, 2026 7:51 PM EDT
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+1
He’s not that far away already.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 11, 2026 9:47 PM EDT
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My Top 10 For next year
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Steven Strassburg
3. Jason Heyward
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Neftali Feliz
6. Mike Stanton
7. Mike Moustakas
8. Rick Porcello
9. Tim Beckham
10. Justin Smoak
by brok515 on
Mar 11, 2026 5:36 PM EDT
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you must think
Beckham will have a monster year at low A…what do u think his numbers will look like? to upend some of the more established guys it would have to be pretty stunning
by jsmall404 on
Mar 11, 2026 6:56 PM EDT
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Not really...
There’s a serious dearth of elite up-the-middle prospects, and Beckham has a plus glove at shortstop. something like .300/.370/.450 with his defensive value would easily make him a top-10 prospect.
by slamcactus on
Mar 15, 2026 1:59 PM EDT
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Nice list
But I’d probably put N-Fel above M-Bum.
by gogotabata on
Mar 11, 2026 7:52 PM EDT
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Mad Bum
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on
Mar 13, 2026 4:13 PM EDT
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i know that Strasburg will be #1
beyond that…
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Mar 11, 2026 7:06 PM EDT
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well i know that the world is going to end of 2012
lol must be nice to be so confident about something you have no control over
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 1:30 PM EDT
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Ynoa
If the A’s send him to rookie ball he might make a big splash.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
by niallmack on
Mar 11, 2026 7:19 PM EDT
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M-Yno
Or he could go the same route J-Teh did for the Braves in his first year. Lots of health bumps on the phenom road.
by gogotabata on
Mar 11, 2026 7:53 PM EDT
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i could see that
is they let him throw 50 innings in the midwest league and he dominates all the college players I could see that
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 1:30 PM EDT
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Josh Vitters
Call it a hunch…and homerism.
by Outshined_One on
Mar 11, 2026 8:05 PM EDT
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Hmmm
J-Vitt has a solid bat. Could happen.
by gogotabata on
Mar 11, 2026 11:15 PM EDT
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My prediction.
A year from now everyone on this site will know how to spell Stephen Strasburg’s name right.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 11, 2026 8:13 PM EDT
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I love Main as much as the next guy
but a top 10 prediction is pretty bold considering he didnt make BA top 100. I definately see a Holland type breakout season, but Holland still has doubters and hasnt broken the top 20 even though he’s going to make his ML debut pretty soon. Main is a top 10 guy going into the 2011 season IMO
by DJ 15 on
Mar 11, 2026 8:43 PM EDT
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Yes, but
Even though he didn’t make the top-100 list, people have been expecting him to be an elite pitcher for quite a while. If he has a huge year, they’ll be more likely to buy that things simply clicked. I think Madison Bumgarner might be a better example of that than Holland, who shot up from not being on the list at all to a top-10 slot, partially because his year was simply better than Holland’s, but also partially because he had been an elite prospect rather than a pure unknown
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 11, 2026 9:50 PM EDT
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Strasburg
Baring Career ending surgery the only 1 way Strasburg is not #1 in 2010 is if he signs immeadiately following draft and throws 50 innings in August / September.
by novaoakland on
Mar 11, 2026 10:07 PM EDT
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i can see that
especially is the nationals have to spend $10-12 million on him.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 1:32 PM EDT
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I'm thinking it will be $15 million.
Including the guaranteed money in his Major League contract. Prior got a $10.5 million contract 8 years ago, and with Boras and Strasburg’s rep as being even better than Prior, it could easily go north of $15 million guaranteed. That’s insane, but very possible.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 3:45 PM EDT
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maybe 15 mil
i think the ML deal is a given…even with his historic talent, i think the economy will factor is somehow.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 8:45 PM EDT
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Economy
I think there’s no way the economy factors in with Strasburg. He’s going to get a historic contract, due to a combination of factors. With the Nats not having signed Crow last year, there’s no way they let Strasburg get away over money. Combine that with Boras having all the leverage in the world, and you get a contract unimpacted by the economy. The Nats won’t risk letting the best pitching draft prospect in a long time get away.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:11 PM EDT
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15 still seems high.
Boras will not settle for anything less than Prior got, but there is going to have to be some compromise. Strasburg isn’t going to go back into the draft so he’s still got something to lose. I think the starting point for the contract will be 15 million, Washington will counter with Prior’s deal and they’ll work somewhere to the middle, probably the 12.5 million range. Probably 7-8 million of that will be a bonus that will be paid out over 5 years. The other 4.5-5.5 million will be spread out over 6 years in salary with the option to opt. out when he reaches arbitration.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:27 PM EDT
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Opt out?
the option to opt. out when he reaches arbitration
That’s the most insane thing I’ve heard today. That would give the Nationals two or three years of MLB service before he’s a free agent.
by ajw on
Mar 13, 2026 11:28 AM EDT
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That's how Price's deal is structured.
I believe most players that sign MLB deals are the same.
by rglass44 on
Mar 13, 2026 12:26 PM EDT
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Opt out means take arb. over the current deal.
by rglass44 on
Mar 13, 2026 12:26 PM EDT
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thats not what an opt out clause is
lol
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 12:57 PM EDT
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ok?
just saying an opt out clause cannot be construed as arbitration any way you want to look at it.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:51 PM EDT
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He wasn't saying "opt out = arbitration"
The player would be opting out of the current contract that he signed when drafted; it is the exact same method of opting out that JD Drew used. However, the player would not be eligible for FA for service time reasons but would be eligible for Arby, so he would be effectively opting out of his current contract to accept arbitration.
by aCone419 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:59 PM EDT
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its obvious
from reading what he wrong that he meant Strassburg could opt out of his contract instead of going to arbitration..which would be the first contract ever of its kind
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 3:14 PM EDT
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No it isn't.
It’s obvious that he was speaking of a common practice.
by rglass44 on
Mar 13, 2026 3:36 PM EDT
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I'm sorry you misunderstood what I wrote but what rglass is saying is exactly right.
The team controls the player for 6 year unless they are non-tendered. I understand very well how the system works and I was not in any way suggesting that Strasburg would be blowing it up with a clause that would make him a Free Agent after 3 years in the big leagues, otherwise I would have said that he would become a free agent. What I meant by opt out, is that he would opt out of his draft contract and take arbitration. I thought at this point it was common knowledge on this site this is how a standard ML deal is drawn up for elite draft prospects.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on
Mar 13, 2026 3:55 PM EDT
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You seem to consider a lot of things obvious that are quite wrong
I am sorry that you were misled, but from context what he was saying was perfectly intelligible.
by aCone419 on
Mar 13, 2026 3:58 PM EDT
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pardon me
for taking what someone says at face value. it is not my fault he cannot articulate what he is saying.
In no way should opt out clause be uttered with arbitration. It just s stupid way of phrasing it and dosent make any sense.
But yes, its quite obvious he will set new levels in arbitration
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 5:30 PM EDT
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yes,
it’s quite obvious you will set new levels in douchebatration
by DrunkIrish on
Mar 13, 2026 6:52 PM EDT
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They wont?
They let Aaron Crow go over what? $100,000?
by alskor on
Mar 12, 2026 9:30 PM EDT
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There's a different message coming out of Washington this year.
Not to mention a new general manager, etc. We’re talking about the most special pitching prospect to come out since before Prior. Even if they think they’re equal, you have to add inflation of 8 years of signing bonuses on top of the $10.5 million Prior got. Going back into the draft won’t hurt Strasburg one bit. He can do what Crow and Tanner Scheppers are doing right now. Bottom line is that the Nationals will be the laughingstock of baseball if they don’t sign Strasburg. They’ve already failed to establish a fanbase in DC, and this would basically set their franchise back even more. They’ll pay out the $15 million I think it will take, and they’ll do it rather quickly if they’re smart.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:38 PM EDT
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idk
that they will be the laughing stock if it really takes 15 million…while the Marines might not pass on him if that is really what it would take, but I am sure several teams would.
Going back into the draft COULD hurt Starssburg big time, as guys like Hochevar’s stuff diminished greatly after doing so. Also, it would be foolish to risk getting hurt in indy ball over 2 million if you already have 12+ on the table.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:47 PM EDT
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i agree
they have to sign him
but on the flip side with Boras, I dont think he will risk having “the best pitching prospect ever” go to indy ball and risk getting hurt and getting next to nothing.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:44 PM EDT
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Boras clients
When they go to Indy ball, they don’t get hurt. I don’t know why, but it just doesn’t happen. I think Strasburg would come back into the draft healthy after a dominating Indy ball stint with Ft. Worth, go #1 overall to whoever is there, then Matt Harvey would go #1(a) to the Nats, and that’s a pretty big difference in the quality of pitchers. Harvey’s a great pitcher, but he’s no Strasburg. That’d be crippling to the Nats.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 9:47 PM EDT
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i dont think...
Boras’s argument to Strassburg will be “hey, my guys never get hurt, dont worry about indy ba’l” lol
the risk of something going wrong with Strassburg would be such a catastrophe i dont think Boras or Strassburg would wanna risk it.
Usually guys go there because they are a million off on a 5 million contract. being a few million off on a 12+ million would be much different and really not worth going through indy ball and giving up service and the like.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 9:53 PM EDT
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They don't think like that.
Boras isn’t the kind of agent that thinks “I’m going to take $3 million less because it’s a big contract and he might get hurt.” He’s the type of agent that sits firm and gets a client what they want. If Boras sets his demands at $15 million (might even start higher), he sets a floor, and he doesn’t go below it. If the Nats don’t move on that, he’ll be fine sending Strasburg to Indy ball. Strasburg knows he’s going to get paid regardless.
Could Strasburg get hurt? Yes. Could he dominate Indy ball and rightfully demand more a year from now? Yes. So it can go either way. Boras takes care of his clients. Strasburg will be paid out the Boras Corp’s fund if he goes to Indy ball. So he knows he’s taken care of. They’ll get the money they want, and if they don’t, Strasburg will still get his check, just from Boras instead of the Nats.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 10:02 PM EDT
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you think....
Strassburg gets hurt and they cover 10+ million?? I find that very hard to believe.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 10:11 PM EDT
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They'll cover more than you think.
Even though they haven’t said this publicly, it’s believed that they cover every penny from the floor that is set to the amount they actually get. So if Boras sets a floor of $15 million, and Strasburg signs off on it, anything Strasburg ends up getting less than that, Boras Corp pays out of pocket for it. But Ft. Worth (Indy team) pays a decent amount for those high-level players that don’t sign every year, and they’ll get at least a percentage if he re-enters the draft next year, so it’s not like it’s a huge loss compared to the financial gain they can have. That’s how the agency corporations do it with the high-profile draftees. It keeps the kid from wanting to sign off on below-market bonuses just to get paid.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 10:16 PM EDT
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is that right?
i didnt start reading about this stuff yesterday..and I have never heard of that..I can def. see why they would to do that. It just surprises me.
Can I ask how you know that? As in did you work for an agency?
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 10:54 PM EDT
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Studied it under a guy in the know.
Told me this is the accepted practice, and even though he said he isn’t 100% sure Boras does it, he’s pretty much 90% sure he does. Sports agencies are basically risk-pooling associations when it comes to drafts.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 11:10 PM EDT
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Jarrod Parker
For me, Jarrod Parker will definately move into the top 10——-maybe even top 5.. Great combo of velo and control——-I also think Logan Morrison and Tommy Hanson belong in next year’s Top 10. Strasburg looks like a Top 3 at worst——-incredible arm!!
Sleeper——-Matt Dominguez!!
by dancer on
Mar 12, 2026 1:28 AM EDT
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IMO
J-Park top 20 but not top 10. T-Han loses rookie eligibility. L-Mor around 10 if not top 10. M-Dom top 35. S-Stras president 2012…mark my words
by grizman_85 on
Mar 12, 2026 2:09 AM EDT
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Gimme...
1, Strasburg
2. Smoak
3. Heyward
4. Feliz
5. Alvarez
6. Moustakas
7. Bumgarner
8. Fowler
9. G. Beckham
10. Wallace
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Mar 12, 2026 2:52 AM EDT
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Fowler
I assume he gets enough ABs to lose prospect status. Am I wrong?
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 3:45 PM EDT
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Guesstimating...
1. Strasburg
2. Porcello
3. Smoak
4. Bumgarner
5. Heyward
6. Feliz
7. Bret Anderson
8. Lars Anderson
9. Posey
10. Moose Tacos
Other possibles: Fowler (I think he may loose rookie eligibility though), Holland, Stanton and Halman if they can improve their K/BB rate, and Montero.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Mar 12, 2026 4:48 AM EDT
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Jeez
1. Strasburg
2. Feliz
3. Smoak
4. Heyward
5. Bumgarner
6. Alvarez
7. Posey
8. Porcello
9. Fowler
10. Cahill
I think Brett Anderson, Rasmus, Maybin, Laporta, Snider lose their eligibility
I think HM are Stanton, Matsuz, Lars, T. Beckham, Tillman or Jarrod Parker
by thudean on
Mar 12, 2026 8:47 AM EDT
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Mostly hitters
1) Michael Stanton
2) Jason Heyward
3) Mike Moustakas
4) Lars Anderson
5) Logan Morrison
6) Jesus Montero
7) Daryl Jones
8) Madison Bumgarner
9) Gordon Beckham
10) Taylor Green
Historically, pitchers on overall top 10 lists turn into busts 3-4 times more often than hitters. Historically, the hitters on overall top 10 lists become stars and superstars 4-5 times more often than the pitchers.
Should we ignore history…or incorporate it when making our top 10 lists?
by Mekonsrock on
Mar 12, 2026 11:16 AM EDT
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Taylor Green?
Really?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 12, 2026 1:30 PM EDT
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+1
although I kinda like the Daryl Jones sleeper pick.
by Summa Slugga on
Mar 12, 2026 2:19 PM EDT
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He's supposed to miss April, too.
Had wrist surgery.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 3:50 PM EDT
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F'real
wtf?
Do you mean Grant Green?
by aCone419 on
Mar 12, 2026 4:22 PM EDT
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Im not sure there is a good answer that can end with "Green"
by alskor on
Mar 12, 2026 4:29 PM EDT
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Taylor Green's not a bad player
And it wouldn’t shock me if he made some top-50 lists next year, but top-10 seems a little ambitious
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 12, 2026 4:49 PM EDT
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Wrist problems will sap his power for the next few months.
And he’s missing a month of games. I don’t see him being in the Top 100 next year.
by Andy Seiler on
Mar 12, 2026 4:51 PM EDT
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Yeah, I'm a T-Green fan
But he’s not top 10, in any year, unless there’s some hugely massive unforeseen breakout.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Mar 12, 2026 10:10 PM EDT
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The J Hey Kid!
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on
Mar 13, 2026 4:15 PM EDT
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I'd love to see both Tillman and Matusz up there
Which, while unlikely, still has a decent shot of happening
by wickedwitch on
Mar 12, 2026 1:38 PM EDT
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Well, that depends a lot on the Orioles
If they don’t get enough major league time, then I think there’s a very decent chance of them both making the top 10
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 12, 2026 4:50 PM EDT
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Wilmer Flores
Breaks the top 10 in 2010!
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on
Mar 12, 2026 6:18 PM EDT
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Mea Culpa
Didn’t know about T. Green’s wrist troubles. One demerit, me.
For the 10th slot, then, I’ll go with Austin Gallagher. Huge kid, put up solid numbers as a teenager in the Cal League (.800 OPS is nothing special…but over .950 on the road), with lots and lots of doubles.
Gallagher’s strikezone control needs work, but never underestimate the guys who hold their own vs. much older competition. ;)
by Mekonsrock on
Mar 12, 2026 7:41 PM EDT
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note to self
Mekonsrock is the Jim Cramer of prospecting.
by gogotabata on
Mar 12, 2026 7:46 PM EDT
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Jim Cramer!?!
Would that I had my own television program, and uproarious sound effects!
by Mekonsrock on
Mar 12, 2026 8:08 PM EDT
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that is a nicer way...
of saying what i was thinking
by jsmall404 on
Mar 12, 2026 8:47 PM EDT
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Philosophy
It’s strange to me the types of criticisms that “Future Top Prospect” lists get. I mean, by definition, there is even more uncertainty and “faith” required to guess what a kind of prospect a prospect will be a year from now than what kind of player he will be down the road.
Prospect evaluation, to me, is all about what kind of player you believe a prospect will turn out to be. Now, present and past performances are a means to that end, but you are still trying to come to your own conclusion about what a player will do and be.
I could easily say I think Pete Kozma will be the top shortstop prospect a year from now. While you could say I’m crazy because I have little evidence to support that, it’s my list and if I think he’s going to hit .330 spread over two levels with solid defense and plate discipline, you just have to wait a year and judge it then.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Mar 13, 2026 2:16 AM EDT
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That bold was supposed to be just the one word.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Mar 13, 2026 2:16 AM EDT
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yeah
but this site would be a little lame is people just go around saying absurd things with no one arguing with them, wouldnt you say?
by jsmall404 on
Mar 13, 2026 2:34 AM EDT
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my bad
see below
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Mar 13, 2026 4:25 AM EDT
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Of course
I just get curious when someone says “Player X is in my top 50, but next year I think he will be top 10 next year.” Well, you’re already projecting him to improve, and you’re trying to predict the future either way. I could understand if you were a scout evaluating, where something needs to be proven to you because you are risking your job and your team’s draft pick or trade piece, but in ranking players, I say be bold. If you say about Matt LaPorta “I think he will hit 25 HR in the majors next year” that is not all that different from saying “I think Eric Hosmer will hit 25 HR in High-A next year.”
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Mar 13, 2026 4:03 AM EDT
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Being bold....
While I certainly agree about being bold—I had Pedroia #15 overall when BA didn’t have him in their top 100—there are some rankings, however subjective the process, that I feel aren’t reasonably justified, due to on-field performance.
For instance, any current top 10 that omitted Matt Wieters would by definition be flawed. The arguments (he’s too big to stay behind the plate, he’s never been young for his league, he’s only played one year of pro ball) are insufficient to drop him that far. I’d guess that anyone here would agree.
Similarly, in my view Michael Stanton must be in every top 25, Daryl Jones in every top 50, and Taylor Green & Austin Gallagher in every top 100. Their performances demand it, regardless of any scouting reports to the contrary.
by Mekonsrock on
Mar 15, 2026 9:23 AM EDT
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Mine.
1. Feliz
2. Bumgarner
3. Smoak
4. Heyward
5. L Morrison
6. T Beckham
7. Matusz
8. D Jennings
9. Stanton
10. Parker
Porcello would be #1 but I have a feeling Detroit will be calling him up in June/July.
I straight up doubt the desire of Alvarez.
Beckham is going to come alive.
Jennings will be healthy finally.
Hosmer is my #11.
Stanton once again hits for huge power but still strikes out a ton, otherwise he’d be top 5.
Smoak, Hayward, and Morrison don’t stop hitting all year.
Feliz will show just how tremendous he can be.
Tommy Hanson gets promoted around the same time as Porcello.
by daveh33 on
Mar 13, 2026 6:07 PM EDT
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also, Brignac has a huge bounce-back year
but will be up in TB real soon. maybe after a couple months of real good numbers in AAA
by daveh33 on
Mar 13, 2026 6:09 PM EDT
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Here is mine....
1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Neftali Feliz
4. Justin Smoak
5. Jason Heyward
6. Pedro Alvarez
7. Jarrod Parker
8. Eric Hosmer
9. Chris Tillman
10. Buster Posey
and
11. Tim Alderson
I know I’m super high on Alderson and Bumgarner. I saw them pitching and completely bought into their stuff.
join the cause: www.weplaygreen.org
by gore51 on
Mar 13, 2026 9:34 PM EDT
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Just saying...
Not a lot of love for Jake Arrieta. Sure, Tillman has better stuff, but Arrieta has shown he can dominate.
by Dr Orpheus on
Mar 15, 2026 1:54 AM EDT
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He's 2 years older than Tillman
and had an FIP half a point higher at a level below. I’m not saying Arrieta isn’t a good prospect, but it’s not exactly astonishing that he’s rated below Tillman
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on
Mar 15, 2026 11:01 AM EDT
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Where is...
Matt Wieters?
Larry just needs to get laid
get him a blowup doll for god sakes
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 9, 2026 7:14 AM CDT
by dasox313 on
Mar 15, 2026 9:47 AM EDT
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In Baltimore
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Mar 15, 2026 1:43 PM EDT
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Candidates
Ranking now is silly. There are about 15-20 candidates, and we all know who they are. As for guys not currently sitting in the bottom half of the BA top-20, the ones I like who I think have the most helium potential are Carlos Santana, Aaron Hicks, Josh Vitters, Desmond Jennings, Kyle Skipworth, Phillippe Aumont, and Matt Moore.
Am I predicting any of them to be in the top-10? Absolutely not. These guys are my favorite bets in the minors right now to jump from good prospects to elite, though.
As far as players vying for #1, I’ll go:
Strasburg
Alvarez
(big gap)
Stanton//G.Beckham/M. Moustakas/Bumgarner/Heyward
(smaller gap)
Feliz/T. Beckham/Posey
by slamcactus on
Mar 15, 2026 2:10 PM EDT
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