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Jay Bruce Community Projection

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Community Projection for Jay Bruce:

We had 27 entries including my own. The community projection came out to:
146 games, 548 at-bats, 153 hits, .280/.339/.496 (OBP based on walks only), 29 doubles, 3 triples, 28 homers, 88 RBI, 49 walks, 131 strikeouts, 9/5 SB/CS, 80 runs.

That would be one hell of a sophomore year.

Ron Shandler has him at .275/.327/.511 with 32 homers in 571 at-bats.
Bill James (usually very optimistic) has him at .296/.351/.540 with 35 homers in 587 at-bats.
PECOTA's weighted mean is .283/.340/.512 with 28 homers in 610 plate appearances.

I might get flayed for this but I think all these are optimistic. My numbers were .261/.307/.419, with the league catching up with some of his weaknesses. Then he adjusts and breaks out huge in 2010.

What do you guys think? Am I right that people are expecting too much out of Bruce for 2009?