I think the power will continue to be impressive if nothing else - such a strong kid and in a great park for dingers. I think he’ll hit 25-30 HRs even if he ends up hitting .240 while doing it, and I also believe that this is a far, far more likely scenario than some of the .290/30+ HR outcomes being posted by some.

I also think the BB/K numbers that were seen in the projection postings tended towards the extremely optimistic. He’s a talented kid but I don’t see the walk numbers treading upwards without a rather high K total - and considering Bruce struck out more than once a game in MLB last year, I can’t see anything less than 130 Ks and perhaps much higher than that.

I think most are projecting an average of all possible outcomes. If a player is going to become a star, he’s going to breakout at some point. You just never know when that breakout is going to be. There is some chance that Bruce exceeds all of these projections as early as 2009. There is some chance that he never does. You add up those outcomes, and all in between, and that’s your projection.

I think that a projection for Bruce should be fairly optimistic at this point. While I can see a .261/.307/.419 line, I can also see a .290/.350/.580 and everything in between.

Bruce’s strikeout problem could be exploited or he could succeed (I think the community projection is pretty reasonable) based off of his sheer talent, so I just really don’t know what to expect.

I believe his stats will be down based on the squad on the field. Taveras and his OPS will afford fewer RBI opportunities, and the loss of Dunn offers less protection in the lineup. I could see both Votto and Bruce being pitched around, or at least very carefully if the bases are clear in front of them.

almighty Bruce is a difficult player to project, since he plays at Homer Happy Cincy stadium.
I wanted to write down something like .280 30 HR, 85 RBI myself. [heck, he might even hit 40 HRs, but he does not have Dunn protecting him anymore….so who knows]

the rest of Bruce’s numbers depends on Willy Taveras and Brandon Phillips.

It’s certainly possible that a 21 year old could adjust to the majors and being an adult and fame and money and put up .296/.351/.540 (Bill James) type numbers, but i’d say the odds are against him at this age.

Playing half his games in Cincinatti, it’s hard to see him doing that poorly.

I think you make a good point here, John. My personal feeling is that Jay will hit a ton of homers but may fall a bit short of expections with regard to his batting average unless he cuts down on his strikeouts.