MOD - Royals
Alright fans...Here is the picks we have in the first five rounds--
#3, #36, #49, #76, #111, #141
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Quick review of the farm system to date--
Loaded with pitching, there are several arms in the system that are performing well and also project well into the Major Leagues. Carlos Rosa, Blake Johnson, Julio Pimentel, and Daniel Cortes among those relatively close to the bigs. Quality names further away include Edward Cegarra, Brent Fisher, Daniel Duffy, Matthew Mitchell, and Sam Runion. Pitchers take up seven of the 10 spots in my Royals top 10.
Offense? Not so loaded. Best bat is clearly 2007 first rounder SS Mike Moustakas. Next best bets are LF Chris Lubanski, CF Derrick Robinson, and RF Joe Dickerson. Couple more intriguing guys like 1B Kila Kaaihue and RF Brian McFall in AA, both guys with power upside, but shouldn't be counted on yet.
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Strategy--
-Best player available, obviously. This is a mock draft, we do not pay jack, therefore do not take money into consideration. The Royals took Matt Wieters in the mock last year, no need to be afraid of taking players like that (cough* Allard *cough).
-I love taking college hitters in the first round. I've quietly done shadow drafting since 2005, and I've taken Alex Gordon, Evan Longoria, and Matt Wieters with my picks. Now, this is a collaborated effort, so it is just not my decision completely here. But there it is, I love taking advanced hitting.
-Pitching? I prefer high schoolers in the later rounds unless there's somebody I just can't pass up. Once you get past the first round or so, there just doesn't seem to be much upside among pitchers from the college ranks. Maybe I'm wrong here, but it just seems that way to me. I prefer HS pitchers and letting them get developed.
-All that said, I won't reach. For example, despite my love of college hitters, I would have to take a very long look at Tim Beckham or Brian Matusz if he's there.
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I have a big board started, but I'd prefer to keep it somewhat private for now. Depending on how many contributors we can get, perhaps we could start a temporary message board to discuss things.
Also, thanks to JM Barten who will take over the draft in case I can not be here on that date, which happens to be a slight possibility.
Discuss...
5 recs |
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My top 5 right now…
1. Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
2. Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
3. Matusz, LHP, San Diego
4. Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
5. Posey, C, Florida State
I’m not too bullish on Crow, although I do like him. He is #6 for me. I’ve heard he’s more 91-94 instead of the 94-96 he was hyped to be before the season. That’s not bad, but it does knock him down for me. That and I’m kinda skeptical about his arm action, it just doesn’t look pretty.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 12, 2025 9:58 PM EDT
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tough to chose...
I have a hard time picking between Alvarez, Matusz and Beckham—I’d be happy with any of them. It’s those later picks that are fun. Last year, we waited until the 60s for our 2nd pick. So for either #36 or #49, I’ll throw out a few names in no particular order:
Ike Davis
Brett Davall
Zach Collier
David Cooper
Kyle Lobstein
Isaac Galloway
by nwroyal on May 12, 2025 11:31 PM EDT 0 recs
My own personal half-assed board for the Royals this year
1. Alvarez
2. Smoak
3. T. Beckham
4. Matusz
5. Crow
BTW, I love that we have 3 picks in the top 50. This is a fairly deep draft, particularly in the first two rounds, so if we choose wisely, we can really help the organization.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on May 13, 2025 2:41 AM EDT 0 recs
My Top 5
Alvarez
Matusz
Crow
Beckham
Smoak/Posey
Other players that I’d at least scout include Hosmer and Gordon Beckham. Also, haven’t followed him much, but what’s the deal with Tim Melville?
by killa on May 13, 2025 10:07 AM EDT 0 recs
Yea...
I am following those two as well.
Melville, last I heard is he wasn’t have a great year statistically (for a guy who was supposed to dominate, anyways) and his velocity was down a little bit.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 13, 2025 8:56 PM EDT
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Loving it....
...Here is yet another top 5.
1. Justin Smoak, 1B
2. Tim Beckham, SS
3. Brian Matusz, SP
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B
5. Aaron Crow, SP
Note: This is assuming Tampa Bay & Pittsburgh select Posey & Alvarez first and second overall. At this point, I’ve read (and heard via BA podcast) they will.
by Royals Nation on May 13, 2025 10:16 AM EDT 0 recs
I have it down to two
Tim Beckham and Justin Smoak
I DO think that money is an issue both in the mock and in real life. It won’t mean taking an inferior talent, but rather as a tie-breaker. I like Smoak and Alvarez pretty much the same. But Smoak will be probably 2-4 million bucks cheaper than Alvarez.
I’ve also done a shadow draft for a few years. I started in 2001 when I just took Casey Kotchman and stopped there. Then in 2002, I went to 3 rounds, starting with current Baltimore property Scott Moore. Since then I’ve done full drafts and I’ve taken Josh Fields (the 3B), Gordon, Brad Lincoln, and Josh Vitters in the first round since. Some other highlights include Pedroia, JR Towles, Kurt Suzuki, Jon Sanchez, Kevin Slowey, Josh Bell, and Brett Anderson.
I’m dead set against taking a pitcher at the top of the draft. The attrition rate is astronomical over the last 7 or 8 years. I wish I would have come to that realization before I took Lincoln over Longoria, who I had praised for a year before I went against my instincts.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 13, 2025 1:21 PM EDT 0 recs
I like the private message board idea
It’s fine to talk about 1st round picks but once we go deeper we will want to keep some ideas and strategies quiet.
I’m similar to firesticks in that I prefer to take position players in the 1st round, and then load up on projectable arms later in the draft. That was my strategy in last year’s mock and it’s the same strategy that Ladnier and Moore used in the real thing. So with that in mind, guys like Alvarez, Smoak, and the Beckhams should be in play.
That said, Matusz really excites me, and I think by the time June rolls around he could very well be the best player available at our pick. He seems fairly safe while providing nice upside, has a long track record of success, and is a southpaw which our org is sorely lacking.
At this point, Tim Beckham is at the top of my board and he has been for some time. Elite prep shorstop prospects have a nice history of success, and I think this kid could eventually live up to the Larkin and Jeter comps.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on May 13, 2025 1:24 PM EDT 0 recs
Beckham & Alvarez
I think they have to be considered the BPAs. If either is available at #3, I say take him and worry about position later. One of them is bound to be gone so prioritizing them should not be a big deal, but I would put Beckham first.
by count sutton on May 13, 2025 6:25 PM EDT 0 recs
Whatever you do...
Don’t pick Matsuz…if you don’t want Crow, just take Smoak
by adschofield on May 13, 2025 8:07 PM EDT 0 recs
Let's just say...
I’m not a fan…I think he’s the most overrated player among the first round prospects
by adschofield on
May 14, 2025 4:26 PM EDT
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That is fair
Chances I would take him are very small anyways. An injury would probably have to be involved to one of my top choices…
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 14, 2025 5:52 PM EDT
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I don't know
how fair it is.
I;m not saying it is impossible that Matusz is overrated but I’d like to hear SOME reasons beyond “not a fan,”
I’m ok with “gut notions” playing a factor (i factor them into my evaluations!) but I also like to hear some more definative reasons.
Is it Matusz’s relative lack of velo or upside compared to a usual top 5 guy?
by nms on
May 15, 2025 5:16 PM EDT
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To answer your question..
I think Matsuz is overrated because his velocity is average, his off-speed pitches are average at this point, and I don’t see him ever developing into more than a back of the rotation guy.
by adschofield on
May 15, 2025 11:55 PM EDT
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Looking for a position player with first pick
With the Royals depth of pitching in minor league system, KC needs to go with a position player with #3. Here are my choices:
Alvarez, Tim Beckham, Justin Smoak - one of those three will be available. Avoid Posey at #3 - I just don’t see him as a #3 overall pick, same with Gordon Beckham. I would avoid Hosmer since he is a HS with Boras as an agent - lots of leverage there. Don’t feel the same with college Boras guys.
With the other picks - go for best player available leaning toward pitchers. Good high school pitcher at supplemental #1 would be the way to go for me. KC could get one of the 1B prospects with #36 or 49 but only if top player available.
by daveyork on May 15, 2025 8:49 PM EDT 0 recs
That is basically my plan...
I like projectable pitchers, but if a top bat falls to #36 I will not hesitate to nab one.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 15, 2025 9:10 PM EDT
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Let's get some more discussion going....
this thread is dying….
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on May 21, 2025 9:57 PM EDT 0 recs
With our supp. pick...
We should go with a HS pitcher…there should be some good ones there (DeVall or Lobstein)
by adschofield on May 22, 2025 1:42 AM EDT 0 recs
agreed
Although I won’t hesitate to take a college bat if one I like falls. Though I have a feeling most of the good bats will be gone by then…
DeVall/Lobstein/Palazzone/Haley are some HS arms that I like in this area.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 22, 2025 2:53 AM EDT
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Agree
All four of those guys fit our M.O. - long, projectable, good stuff we can work with.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
May 22, 2025 10:22 AM EDT
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Also throw Mike Montgomery in the mix.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
May 22, 2025 12:10 PM EDT
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That was on my mind yesterday
I like the approach of taking HS arms in the sandwich/second/third rounds.
Robbie Ross is my favorite in the neighborhood of the #36 and 49 picks.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 22, 2025 12:58 PM EDT
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Another HS pitcher I like in the supplemental range
is the Colorado kid Tyler Sample. Big kid at 6’7” who throws in the low 90’s with a good breaking ball. Colorado prep pitchers have done pretty well in the past like Halladay and Hochevar. Devall has been a prep pitcher I have been following - 6’3” 215 and LH. FL prep stars are usually advanced so if Devall is putting up numbers like 21BB/140K ratio and 12-1 with a 0.41 ERA - I like it. Also a fan of the Texas and Georgia pitchers.
Any of the HS pitchers would be a good fit along with the 2007 draft prospects.
by daveyork on May 22, 2025 11:05 AM EDT 0 recs
Sample
I am a little concerned with him, I believe he had TJ a couple years back. I guess you could say, “he got it out of the way.” I’m still wary, though.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 22, 2025 5:27 PM EDT
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I'm a huge fan of...
Sample, the guy has a power frame and power stuff
by adschofield on
May 22, 2025 8:49 PM EDT
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One draft strategy I'd love to see KC follow in 2008
is to take 1-2 players in lower rounds who drop due to signability issues. KC could get a premium talent with a lower pick for an extra $100-500K. Two examples - In 2007, KC picked up Keaton Hayenga who was a top HS pitching prospect from WA. They went well over the slot at paid $300K for a 31st rounder. Now, he is the 27th prospect by BA and could add to the nice HS crop of Runion, Duffy, Mitchell. Hayenga is a guy I’ll follow closely this summer. In 2006, KC went for Derrick Robinson in 4th round for $850K. Ranked by BA as 11th best prospect. Right now, Robinson is at Wilmington and has game changing speed.
KC has got to take some risks with the prep players and Latin guys. Wealthy clubs like Red Sox are figuring out that the slots don’t apply anymore. Playing for the quick fix, college guy who is an easy sign just hasn’t worked for KC over the years. I’d rather see KC put an extra million bucks into 5-10 minor leagues that waste it on a washed up FA 5th starters who gets released by mid summer.
by daveyork on May 22, 2025 11:18 AM EDT 0 recs
I think they are following that strategy
As you pointed out, we went over slot for a number of players the past couple years, including Hayenga and Robinson. I don’t think we have the financial wherewithal to just go crazy like the Yanks and Sox could, but we are making progress from where we were a few years ago when we drafted college seniors and offered them 1000 bonuses. Also we’re doing better in Latin America than we ever have, as we signed a number of top kids to six figure deals last summer, and I’m sure we’ll do the same this year.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
May 22, 2025 12:15 PM EDT
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Side note...
Not sure if Hayenga will be pitching at all this summer. If he does, it probably won’t be until August.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 22, 2025 5:32 PM EDT
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What about the 1B crop in the supplemental or 2nd round?
Seems like this position is the strength of the draft? Top end is Smoak, Hosmer, and Alonso - they won’t fall that far. Say KC comes up with Tim Beckham (my personal choice), could you see KC or the MOD crew going college 1B then prep pitchers? BA ranked other 1B prospects in top 50 as: #30 - Ike Davis - AZ State, #31-David Cooper - Cal, or #38 Allan Dykstra - Wake Forest. Would these guys be worth a supplemental or 2nd rounder?
by daveyork on May 22, 2025 11:29 AM EDT 0 recs
Yes
I’d be willing to take either of those 3 at #36, and would not hesitate to do so.
1. Beckham
1s. Davis/Cooper/Dykstra
2-5. Projactable HS arms.
Would be ideal. That said, like I said about pick #36, if there is another bat I like at #49 I will not hesitate to take that bat…
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 22, 2025 5:25 PM EDT
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Hopefully...
you mean Cutter Dykstra…oh and I wouldn’t mind going with Scott Gorgen in the 1s or 2nd…I love him
by adschofield on
May 22, 2025 8:48 PM EDT
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Cutter
I am a HUGE fan of Cutter as well. I meant Allan, the power hitting 1B from Wake at the #36 spot.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 22, 2025 9:03 PM EDT
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Any updates?
Will you be able to attend to draft day?
I’ve been offered some overtime on saturday morning.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 24, 2025 2:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Ugh
Just found out…have to attend a graduation that day. If you could take over, that would be great. Depending on how long it lasts, I could be back for the later picks, but no idea exactly how long I will be gone.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
May 24, 2025 6:03 PM EDT
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Given the Royals track record of developing guys
I’d prefer if we draft a safer guy(aka College bat) with our first pick, Alvarez if he falls(pretty likely)
by playingwithfire on May 29, 2025 4:41 AM EDT 0 recs
So who is drafting on Saturday?
I initially thought I was going to have a project at work keep me busy on Saturday, but it looks like I’ll be free.
I ran the draft last year and would love to help out again this year if possible.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on May 30, 2025 10:00 AM EDT 0 recs
I will be
I’ll be watching this thread in the hour or two leading up to and on through the draft itself. I hope that there will be an active discussion.
I’m pretty much dead set on TBeckham, Smoak, Alvarez being my first, second, third choice. I have a short list of guys in the sandwich, second, third, fourth rounds that I’m looking at.
I like
LHP Brett DeVall
LF Shane Peterson
LHP Robbie Ross
OF Eric Thames
OF Robbie Grossman
CF Jordan Danks
LHP Tim Murphy
RHP Aaron Shafer
OF TJ Steele
SS Jason Christian
1B Xavier Scruggs
RHP Jasob Thompson
LF Gabe Jacobo
If anybody has any favorites that they’d like to try to sell me on or if there are any players I listed that you simply hate… Please feel free.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 30, 2025 11:31 AM EDT
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OF Destin Hood and RHP Michael Palazzone
Palazzone is just a personal preference, but there are a ton of projectable HS arms that should be available in the sandwich and 2nd round.
However, I’m a HUGE Destin Hood fan and I would definitely give him some strong consideration after our 1st round pick. He has a ton of athleticism, great bat speed, and present power that projects well going forward once he focuses solely on baseball (has an Alabama footbally scholly but will go the baseball route if drafted). Basically you’re prototype RF prospect with power and speed.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
May 30, 2025 11:52 AM EDT
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Two good suggestions
I like Palazzone more than Hood as the word “raw” tends to make me nervous with hitters.
What round would you recommend them going? Would you put them ahead of say Peterson/Ross/Thames/Grossman, who I had targeted at 36 and 49? Or would you put them behind or in the middle of them and target the third round?
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 12:32 PM EDT
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C Petey Paramore-Arizona State
Look for him in the 3rd, preferably 4th, solid defensive Catcher, good contact hitter, plate discipline is above average, only problem is lack of power. Will he make enough contact in the pros to negate some of that? I think so.
by playingwithfire on May 30, 2025 3:10 PM EDT 0 recs
He's a good, safe option
I don’t see a ton of upside. As a catcher I think he might go higher than what his talent would dictate. I think he might go in the second round, both here and in real life.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 12:34 PM EDT
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A bat in first round, best available HS pitcher in sandwich and 2nd round
After 2nd round - best available player. If it was KC’s front office, they’ll pick a guy no one has heard of in the 2nd or 3rd round. A speedy OF in the 4-6th round, too. Avoid the “toolsy” guys who can’t hit and can’t throw strikes in HS or College - those guys never pan out. Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby come to mind and Hugh Walker for the old timers but every draft has them.
Personal preference: Alvarez, Beckham, Hosmer
by daveyork on May 31, 2025 12:36 PM EDT 0 recs
Does this sound like what you had in mind?
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/12/508370/mod-royals#6464149
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 12:49 PM EDT
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First Round
Pick 3
Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 31, 2025 1:05 PM EDT 0 recs
A good pick with Smoak - advanced college hitter
Smoak seems like the kind of guy who plays the game right also. Chipper Jones is his role model. Switch hitter, good fielder, good kid. I like it with Beckham and Alvarez off the board. Smoak could move quickly through the system. Start him at Burlington with Clint Robinson going to Wilmington.
Since it’s the mock draft, the guy signs day of the draft, right?
by daveyork on May 31, 2025 1:14 PM EDT 0 recs
Beckham/Alvarez/Smoak
Went 1-2-3.
Those three were my top 3 all year long, though not in that order. I started out Smoak-Alvarez-Beckham, at one point it was Smoak-Beckham-Alvarez, by the end I was at Beckham-Smoak-Alvarez.
I’m happy with it.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 1:16 PM EDT
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Matusz and Crow at 9 and 10 was big surprise
Hope the supplemental round finds one of the advanced HS pitchers available - like LH like Devall, Lobstein, or Ross. Also like Sample from CO (even though not a LH).
by daveyork on May 31, 2025 1:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Ideally
I’d like DeVall to be there at 36 and Ross at 49
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 1:33 PM EDT
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After watching some of the reaches in first round with Lowrie and Hewitt
that is looking possible. Saw that Ross went #24 to Phillies - pretty high compared to BA’s ranking.
by daveyork on May 31, 2025 1:37 PM EDT 0 recs
I don't like Ross any higher than the second round
He’s alright. He’s just not especially polished or have an exceptionally high ceiling. I want to be able to wishcast something of a #2 starter at least if I’m taking a pitcher that high.
I wouldn’t touch Gerritt Cole with a 10 foot pole.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 1:49 PM EDT
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Tyson Ross
Not to be confused with Robbie Ross, who I actually like MORE than Tyson.
There are about a half dozen guys who will probably go in the sandwich/second rounds who I like more than at least half of the guys who were taken and who will probably be taken in the back half of the first.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 1:56 PM EDT
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DeVall
Mets beat me to it
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 31, 2025 1:58 PM EDT 0 recs
2nd round options still have some good HS pitching talent available
Montgomery, Sample, Lobstein - any would be good choices.
by daveyork on May 31, 2025 2:31 PM EDT 0 recs
Update
I went with Robbie Ross in the supplemental first
And Shane Peterson in the second round. I really like his bat. He’s another guy like Smoak that can move quickly
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 31, 2025 2:36 PM EDT 0 recs
Still on the list
OF Eric Thames
CF Jordan Danks
LHP Tim Murphy
RHP Aaron Shafer
OF TJ Steele
SS Jason Christian
1B Xavier Scruggs
RHP Jacob Thompson
LF Gabe Jacobo
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 31, 2025 2:38 PM EDT 0 recs
And Palazzone
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 2:42 PM EDT
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Updated
#36 Robbie Ross, LHP, HS-Kentucky
#49 Shane Peterson, LF, Long Beach State
#80 Eric Thames, OF, Pepperdine
We still have picks 115 and 145 left in this mock
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on May 31, 2025 3:36 PM EDT 0 recs
In the 4th and 5th
I took Jason Christian, a good defensive shortstop who has put up good numbers at Michigan and Jacob Thompson, a righty who was thought of as a very good prospect earlier in his Virginia career, but he’s had a down year. But his strikeout rate was still reasonably high this season. I like him as a sleeper.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 5:40 PM EDT
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Saw that Thames had surgery on quad in May.
What is the story with that?
by daveyork on May 31, 2025 3:45 PM EDT 0 recs
ASAIK he should be fine
He might not play this season after being drafted, but in the long run, torn quads usually end up being fine. And he was likely to be a corner outfielder who drew most of his value from his bat already.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
by JM Barten on
May 31, 2025 3:53 PM EDT
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