I kept Hughes in my partial keeper league - hoping he’d be on par this year with the likes of Gallardo and Linececum, both of whom were also kept by other owners. That scenerio isn’t looking too hot right now. Things can change. I hope they do.

NY fans just need to calm down. I am not sold on Kennedy at all though.

he got squeezed a bit in kc start, had some bad luck, it’s been cold, etc. He looked great last night before they pulled him due to rain delay.

but he has been a bit rushed, and his AA numbers weren’t THAT dominant. Not like Doc in Fla St league at 18, or Hanson now, say. He got respect due to age and Yankees. He’d always have a pretty good team behind him in majors.

I am not worried about arm injuries. He looks a bit baby fattish, but his delivery is a simple, seaver-esque thick trunk hurl. He’ll be sub 4 era for last 4-5 months of season I wager, improving all year long.

Watching Pelfrey now. He walked a bunch in 1st, but got out of bases loaded 1 out only 1 run. He is throwing 95, sinking and rising fastball. He will eventually be very good. Stuff moves so much he has a hard time getting strikes. Jurrjens is pitching against him. Already a vet at 22.

I have all 3 in fantasy.

Don’t know when the picture on that card is taken but its very telling. Hughes clearly has some timing issues.

This pic is a great shot at the start of shoulder rotation (note his glove arm against the outside of his shirt sleeve). A pitching coach couldn’t ask for a more perfect snap shot.

First, his arm is short of vertical. This is causing excessive external rotation which is likely the cause of the previous shoulder issues. He is not extremely short of vertical (i.e. Kerry Wood) but its enough to give him the sensation of being late:

“Hughes said he knows he needs to slow down his delivery to keep from rushing forward and having his arm drag behind.”

I think this statement shows Hughes knows what it feels like but the fix is NOT to slow down but rather open the hips later.

Second, his shoulders are beginning to rotate but his hips haven’t finished rotating (note his back foot has not rotated completely yet.) I am not totally against the toe closed position he’s showing but when it hinders hip rotation I would look to correct. In this case, it may be a problem. There are usually two reasons for this lack of separation between hips and shoulders, one you are dealing with a younger player that doesn’t have the flexibility, strength and coordination to accomplish this complex action or two you have a player that is unwilling/unable to do so because of a loss of range of motion or injury (See Gil Meche - I don’t think Gil is more than 5 starts from a DL stint right now). Biomechnical research indicates a direct correlation between velocity and a greater separation (in terms of time) between maximum hip and torso rotational speed.

I’m optimistic that Hughes and the Yankees are aware there is an issue, but I’m not all that high on this being an easy fix from my experience. Nor am I all that high on the Yankees ability to develop young pitchers.

I think you should have moved Tim Lincecum ahead of both Phil and Homer Bailey last winter just as I suggested you do. :)

By the way, it’s not over—but I don’t think anyone would argue that Tim is ahead of both the other two pitchers right now. They are also two years younger than Tim and have each pitched in the majors at an age when Tim hadn’t pitched beyond college.

I am happy that one of the reasons I backed Tim was because despite all the worry about his violent motion, I felt he would be the healthiest of the group. So far he has yet to experience even a sore arm, while both the other two have missed time to injury on at least two occasions I believe.

Tim hasn’t really pitched quite as well as his 1.23 ERA this season would indicate. This isn’t Bob Gibson in 1968, although it is beginning to somewhat resemble Steve Carlton in 1972. Tim won’t continue to strand 90% of his runners. Then again, batters won’t continue to hit .363 on Balls In Play against him, either.

If one wants three numbers to summarize how well Tim has pitched this season (aside from the 1.23 ERA, of course, since little in life is as simple as one, two, three), here they are:

. SLG against of … .299!

. 36 strikeouts

. 6 Grounded into double plays

By way of explanation, Tim has yielded 22 singles, 5 doubles, no triples and on home runs. The 36 strikeouts go pretty much without explanation, except that Tim now has four strikeout pitches—and in his worst game for off-speed pitches on last night, he still struck out nine batters in 6 1/3 innings. As for the double plays, Tim isn’t a highly-pronounced ground ball pitcher, but he IS that best combination of a high strikeout-high ground ball pitcher.

Control remains an issue, as Tim’s strikeouts per nine are actually up slightly from his 4.00 in 2007. However, his strike percentage is up from about 62% in 2007 to 65% this season.

Tim walked four as a reliever in his first appearance of the season, a game in which both he and Chad Billingsley didn’t enter the game until it became likely that the game would become official, which turned out to be the fourth inning for each. That Tim walked four in difficult conditions—including returning from a 74-minute rain delay.

He walked only one batter in each of next two starts, but walked three and five in his last two starts, as he lost his control late after having excellent control for the first four innings or so.

The Giants allowed Tim to throw 121 pitches last night, and he was still throwing primarily 95 to 97 mph in his final inning. He lost control of his off-speed pitches in particular late in the game, but still was able to achieve nine strikeouts and no runs in 6 1/3 innings primarily with his fastball.

I don’t think Tim can get by well for a full game on just his fastball, unless it is particularly live. But he has shown that with as little as a fastball and change up he can be very difficult to hit. When he has four pitches at his disposal and under command, he is darn hard to hit.

Tim’s off-speed stuff is very hard to square up. He has now thrown nearly 1000 off-speed pitches in his 29 major league appearances, and he has yielded only two or three home runs on those pitches.

He yielded a home run on the first curve ball he threw in the majors—and a round tripper to Todd Helton on a high, inside change up a few games later. I believe he yielded one other homer on the curve ball last season, although I can’t specifically remember it.

But yielding only two or even three home runs on nearly 1000 pitches is pretty phenomenal. And I would say Tim’s fastball is even better this season, which is one of the reasons his strikeout rate is up. As I mentioned before, Tim has yet to yield a triple or home run in five appearances this season.

Sorry guys. But when the names of either Phil Hughes or Homer Bailey come up, I immediately wish I could have convinced John to put Tim ahead of them a winter ago. As I mentioned, it is possible they will still surpass Tim - since each is two years younger - but even though both have far more professional experience than Tim, neither has yet pitched as well. And while one of the reasons John downgraded Tim from an A to an A- was his worry about the effect of Tim’s heavy college innings on his arm, Tim has never had so much as a sore arm, while I believe Phil and Homer have EACH missed time TWICE due to injury.

By the way, I liked Husker Bob’s point about the picture of Phil indicating timing problems. That picture doesn’t make Phil look good at all. I still need to get in touch with Husker, since I think he can provide some insight into some present and/or potential problems regarding Lincecum’s mechanics.

But as of right now, I would say that the past year has developed rather positive evidence for Lincecum, while it has raised some questions about Hughes and Bailey.

I like all three pitchers. But I like Tim better than either of the other two. He has more stuff and seemingly healthier mechanics. Despite a slow start control-wise this season, Hughes has the best control of the three, and both Hughes and Bailey have the age advantage.

By the way, I got to see a baseball card of Tim’s from the summer of 1988, back when he was 14. It showed him at 4-foot-10 and 78 pounds. By the time he was a freshman the following year, he had surged to 4-foot-11 and 85. :)

Since people are asking for an opinion directly on topic, I will make one.

I would like to say that I know relatively little about Phil and posted about Tim Lincecum not only because he interests me far more, but because I know a LOT more about Tim than Phil. My comments on Phil should probably be taken with a grain of salt. But here they are.

I loved Phil because at a very young age he showed the best combination of dominance and control of any prospect I can remember. Because of this, I liked him better than the same-aged Homer Bailey.

But as Husker Bob pointed out, the still picture John placed at the top of this thread doesn’t make Phil’s mechanics look very good. And while a still picture can indeed give a FALSE picture, the picture seems to me to be disturbing, particularly given Phil’s large size, which might make him more prone to serious mechanical flaws.

And although he’s only, what, four years out of high school?, Phil has already lost time to injury in two different seasons.

Phil is still a prospect I would LOVE to have—but I think he star has dimmed, perhaps only temporarily. That Phil is pitching in the majors at a very young age is impressive. That he has already thrown a partial-game no-hitter is EXTREMELY impressive. But the issues that first were visible in injury and mechanics are now affecting his effectiveness.

I have dropped Phil back almost to the Homer level. That’s still pretty elite company. But while I’m not sure Phil’s high ceiling has dropped, I fear his chances of reaching it may have.
Homer Bailey.