Prospect Retro: Fausto Carmona

by John Sickels on Oct 4, 2025 1:00 PM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

Fausto Carmona was signed by the Cleveland Indians as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2000. He didn't make his North American debut until 2002, going 2-4, 3.30 with a 42/10 K/BB ratio in 76 innings for Burlington in the Appalachian League, allowing 89 hits. He showed very good control, but his strikeout rate was also very low and he was quite hittable. I didn't put him in the '03 book: at this point he was your basic Grade C rookie-level pitching prospect. He wasn't in Baseball America's book either.

Carmona moved up to Lake County in the Sally League in 2003 and had a great year, going 17-4, 2.06 with an 83/14 K/BB in 148 innings, allowing just 117 hits. His walk rate and command were outstanding, but again the strikeout rate was low. He was hitting 93-95 MPH at times for Lake County, but his breaking ball and changeup were below average. He dominated because he could throw a mid-90s fastball for strikes at will, but the lack of Ks warned that refinement would be needed. I wrote that "the low K-rate concerns me, but everything else is positive, he is very young, and his command is extraordinary given his age and experience level." I gave him a Grade B.

The Indians began Carmona in the Carolina League for Kinston in 2004, where he posted a 2.83 ERA and a 57/20 K/BB in 70 innings. Promoted to Double-A Akron, he struggled, going 4-8, 4.97 with a 63/21 K/BB and 114 hits allowed in 87 innings. He was still showing the 90-95 MPH power sinker, and he improved his changeup, but his breaking ball remained a major problem and Double-A hitters exposed this. I gave him a Grade C+, but noted that he was very talented and still very young, and that the first indicator of progress would be a rising strikeout rate.

Carmona split 2005 between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Buffalo. He went 6-5, 4.07 with a 57/20 K/BB but 100 hits allowed in 91 innings for Akron, 7-4, 3.25 with a 49/15 K/BB and 76 hits allowed in 83 innings for Buffalo. I wasn't sure what to make of him, given that the Triple-A numbers were considerably better than the Double-A numbers. Scouts continued to praise his sinker and changeup and continued to worry about his breaking ball, which was reflected in the K/IP. But he continued to throw strikes with the sinker and get grounders. I gave him another C+, but wrote that it was a copout grade and that I didn't have a good feel for what Carmona would do in the majors. I could see him as a big success, and I could see him as a major failure.

Carmona spent most of 2006 with the Indians and did not pitch well at all, going 1-10, 5.42. But this year he completely turned things around with a 19-8, 3.06 season (ERA+ of 145) with a 137/61 K/BB. He gets grounders, he throws strikes, and even the strikeout rate is creeping up as his slider has improved. He's got three good pitches now, and as long as he stays healthy I see no reason why he can't be effective for a long time.

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GO/AO

I don't see any mention of Carmona's GO/AO's while he was in the minors. Carmona's GO/AO this year was 2.88. With the sinker and relatively low walk rates,I'm guessing his minor league GO/AO was pretty high. Although GO/AO is not a perfect measurement of GB tendencies, but it's usually a pretty easy stat to find and give an approximation. IMO, a good GO/AO mitigates a poor K rate when evaluationg prospects.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 4, 2025 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes, with caveat

I think you need to pay attention to GB/FB as the prospect progresses as well as pay close attention to scouting reports. There are lots of guys with mediocre sinkers who can induce lots of grounders at lower levels (where there are a lot of bad hitters, and bad hitters generally hit more grounders than flyballs). So if you see a 3:1 ratio in the GCL but hear bad scouting reports, watch out for the ratio diminishing at higher levels.

It's a lot like how college lefties can dominate the low minors in K/9 but struggle as they move up the ladder.

by limozeen on Oct 4, 2025 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

If you have those kinds of GB ratios plus a scouting report that puts the sinker in the mid 90's, that should get your attention. It also helps to have at least one adequate secondary pitch.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 4, 2025 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sinker

It seems like a lot of these sinkerball guys do better in the majors than their performance in the minors would lead you to expect: Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, and Kevin Brown come to mind, to differing degrees. Is that just my memory finding a pattern where there is none?

by FlipYrWhig on Oct 4, 2025 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Improved infield defense at the major-league level would contribute to that theory.

Morrow is the Sea Diamond.

by PujolsJunkie on Oct 4, 2025 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at your examples though.

Those three guys have unholy movement on their sinkers, and throw (or threw in Brown's case) pretty darn hard.

For every one of those guys, there's probably three that have similar numbers in the minors and don't even make it to the show. Take a guy like Ryan Jensen - good sinker, but topped out at 90-91, and he barely had a career. Nate Cornejo had much better overall numbers that Lowe did in the minors, and he ended up retired at 27.

As far as those three you mentioned earlier, Brown was rushed by Texas, and moved levels too much to get acclimated. Lowe was obviously more of a thrower than a pitcher when the Sox got him at 18. Looks like he had to take is lumps to learn how to pitch, but put together some solid years from '96 onward. I'm not sure what to think about Webb. His MLB averages (H/9, K/9, Whip, etc) are pretty close to his work in the minors, a shade better or worse here and there. I don't proclaim to be a real scout or anything, nor do I remember what people thought 5 years ago, but didn't people kinda see him coming?

I'm proud to have seen #756

by Azantor on Oct 4, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nah

I don't quite agree with your assessment. Even pitchers with mediocre movement or mediocre velocity can get by if they do a decent job inducing grounders. Even guys like Carlos Silva who have mediocre movement and velocity, poor strikeouts, and a decent GB ratio can survive and even be above-average with decent control.

There are plenty of flameout groundball pitchers, but I'd say it's more due to being mediocre or poor at all of the above factors (velocity, movement, control, and actual GB ratio) with decent stats in the minors (which are chock full of groundball hitters). Which is why it's important to analyze these guys for one exemplary quality among those four. If you've got even one, you're more likely than not going to be a league-average pitcher. If you don't (Sowers comes to mind) you don't have a career.

by limozeen on Oct 4, 2025 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Consistency

Sinkers that don't sink tend to get hit hard. To achieve sinking action, you need forward rotation on the ball, something that isn't so easy to do from an overhand delivery. I think it's a big challenge to maintain consistency with the sinker due to this technical factor.

One example is Scott Munter of the Giants. When he first came up, everybody was in awe of his 92 MPH "heavy" sinking fastball that was compared to a "bowling ball." His AA coach had helped him perfect the pitch by getting him to arch his back at the beginnning of his delivery. At first, he induced a whole bunch of GB outs and DP's and everybody(including me) compared him to Greg "Moon Man" Minton. As time went on, he seemed to gradually lose the sink on the sinker and never got it back. Not surprisingly, he's been hammered ever since.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 4, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

confused here

To achieve sinking action, you need forward rotation on the ball, something that isn't so easy to do from an overhand delivery

This is impossible. Every thrown ball will have backspin, but the sink comes from the amount of side-spin applied form the pressure of the fingers on the ball and arm angle.

There is no forward rotation on the ball on a sinker. A curveball/slider is totall different due to the release of the ball from the hand.

by So Cal Bob on Oct 4, 2025 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Side Spin

No, a sinker is a pitch that breaks straight down, it is distinctly different than a curveball or slider.

Perhaps no pitch has true forward spin, but maybe if you have LESS backward spin, gravity will take over and bring it down.

The downward action on a curveball is achieved by snapping the wrist, not just outward, but downward over the top of the ball too so that the ball tumbles forward.

Not sure of the exact mechanism for a slider, but I know the slider has a tight, boring rotation, like a rifle bullet. Apparently, when the resistance pushes the ball away from the direction of the spin, the boring action "bites" and also forces it down. Gravity undoubtedly plays a role too.

I have seen splitters in slo-mo and a good one definitely tumbles forward.

The reason why two seam fastballs tend to sink is that the thumb grips across the seams on the bottom of the ball while the top fingers grip the white part of the ball which is slipperier. The thumb thus tends to pull the bottom of the ball back when it is released creating a forward spin.

The reason why a spitball is a super-sinker is that the saliva lubricates the top of the ball making creating even more of a differential between the grip of the thumb on the bottom of the ball and the fingers on top creating even more of a forward spin.

That's just my point. Achieving forward spin on a ball thrown from over-the-top is difficult to achieve and more difficult to maintain consistency of. IMO, that has a lot more to do with why GB pitchers like Derek Lowe tend to be inconsistent rather than to oft invoked "luck" of BABIP.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 4, 2025 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

er..

..there is a good slomo of Webb's delivery somewhere, probably one of those Carlos Gomez posts, which puts paid to this fellow's assertions.

Wait, here we go: http://swingtraining.net/Carlos/Webb/Webb-2324.gif

Anyone who thinks, '[e]very thrown [fast]ball will have backspin' is just, um, wrong.

See also: http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2007/

(I know, actual data ruin our fun, but really.)

by wcw on Oct 7, 2025 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well ...

all thrown fastballs DO have backspin, but not all thrown balls. Curveballs do tumble fwd, esp. if you use the karate chop method, and throw them w/ the back of your hand facing homeplate. This will produce a 12/6 drop; the arm angle you use can change it up some, often referred to as a slurve which can drop 11/5 or 10/4 for a lefty, other side of the clock for a righty.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something here on your 2-seam description but they way you're saying it, it almost sounds like you'd have to throw it underhand. A 4-seam is gripped across the seams on top of the ball right? A 2-seam you place your top fingers on the seams, keep your thumb on the bottom (no seams). I'm no physicist (obviously) but the slower rotation of the 2-seam is what makes it "sink". The wrist is snapped down at release (really a no teach, just natural motion). There is no way a 2-seam will move fwd. Again arm angle can change things up a bit.

A splitter is a 2-seam grip but you jam the ball in between the fingers and throw it like a 4-seam (as hard as you can). Again the slower rotation makes the ball sink but most of the way there its straight like a 4-seam. I don't teach this to all of my kids but the more physically developed ones (or ones w/ big hands) can get the ball to cut by moving their thumb from the bottom of the ball to the side. This is something they have to play around with for awhile, and get a feel for what they can or cannot control. But every pitcher does this, and some have their own style on how to throw the basics.

The cut f/ball mentioned above is almost a slider but I don't let them turn their wrists, forearms, etc. to get that extra movement. Arm angle plays a big part on how much your slider "slides". Back door sliders are a different animal, I have stayed away from those so can't really comment on them.

by dew on Oct 9, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

i was thinking the same thing early on...remembering how horrific he was last year (specifically that BoSox series)...then i saw him pitch, the yankees actually beat him but i was amazed that anyone can even touch that fastball, that is the definition of an explosive pitch, obviously i was very impressed

by nyybaseball99 on Oct 4, 2025 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

RP vs. SP

I would say that the confidence increase has to be attributed at least partially to switching from the pen to the rotation. Starters can afford to make a mistake here or there while relief pitchers have much less room for error, one mistake pitch can sink you and this leads to overthrowing and trying to nibble a little too much. As a starter, you don't have to be perfect on every pitch and I think this mindset has to be better for a young guy like Carmona coming off a rough year.

by tmsnow on Oct 4, 2025 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Didn't really know much of the back story behind Carmona, and it is interesting to see that a guy nobody really had doing much in the majors turns out to be a #2 starter in the playoffs. Shows you that no matter how much you scout, there will always be exceptions, and people will always have hope as long as you have one superb pitch.

by T for Jose Tabatha on Oct 4, 2025 7:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Overstatement

I think it's a bit of an overstatement to say he was a guy who nobody saw doing much. Perhaps he didn't get a lot of national exposure, but he was the Indians minor league pitcher of the year following his 2003 season (as a 19-year old) and they thought highly enough of him to give him a AAA debut as a 20-year old.

by APV on Oct 5, 2025 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006

I'm not sure why 2006 is almost ignored, treated just as a bad year. That year was a huge outlier for what was to come.

1) He started in April and was rocked. Back to the minors for May. In June he was dominant in the pen and then moved to the closers role sometime in July. He failed under the pressure and that was the 2006 season.

This is almost 3 different seasons for Fausto.

The failure in the closer role isn't unprecedented and especially so for sinker pitchers. Timlin was know for this whenever moved to the closer role. It was because of the excitement he threw harder and for sinkers that means less movement. Lowe also had some similar problems.
The move to the pen helped his velocity. This also is not unprecedented. Look at what happened with Greinke. He realized he could throw harder and maintain control. Both guys probably ran out of steam but they just realized that means better off-season conditioning.
In the pen he threw 90% fastballs. While everyone talks about multiple pitches etc. in the pen it's all about your #1 pitch and less so your #2 pitch. The pen is awesome for control/velocity/repeatability for your main pitch. This made Carmonas sinker move from a plus pitch into a plus-plus pitch.

The question is where does he go now? Watching Wang pitch tonight I see once again how much he needs better off-speed stuff. Wang is a top pitcher no doubt. But because of his excellent sinker he gets ahead very often. But can't finish that well. A plus secondary pitch would make him a dominant ace. Carmona can get away without this while throwing 97. But having a top 2ndary pitch would put him perennial in the Cy Young votes.

by pedrophile on Oct 4, 2025 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

is anyone concerned

about Fausto's innings count?

I realize he has always thrown a lot of innings, except for last year when he was in the bullpen, and people tend to blame an increase in workload more than the size of the workload itself. Still, I'm kind of amazed that I haven't heard anyone express doubts about the wisdom of having a 23 year old throwing 200+ innings.

by Moose Tacos on Oct 5, 2025 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There's this thing called the World Series

Teams like to win them, it's actually considered to be the goal of every season. Carmona has been wildly effective for the Indians. Their next best pitcher is either Westbrook or Byrd.

Tounge in cheek talk aside, you bring up a very good point. Carmona could be a big candidate to fall next year given the history of postseason pitchers struggling in their next year and Carmona's youth. However, Carmona's pitch counts seem to be relatively low (I think).

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7603/situational;_ylt=AgXFmj7eUVpcsvr7OFwdE9OFCLcF

Scroll down to situational stats and you can see that he has only gone over pitch 105 for 2.2IP. One time they did abuse him and he made somewhere between 121-135 pitches, but overall it looks like they have used him well. The inning totals aren't nearly as important as pitch totals especially when you consider a 3.06 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP. A pitcher can pitch three innings and go 100 pitches while an effective pitcher can go 9 innings in 80 pitches.

by FanBall on Oct 5, 2025 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs