Ryan Zimmerman Crystal Ball

by John Sickels on Nov 28, 2025 3:06 PM EST in News Comment 36 comments

This is the kind of career that Ryan Zimmerman is capable of having...this would make him one of the best third basemen in history. Remember he has excellent defense to go with these hitting stats.

0 recs | Comment 36 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Wow...

you really like him.

And so do I. The guy's only gonna get better as a hitter. He hit for alot more power than expect, and those 47 doubles are a sign of good things to come.

I actually thought with his early scouting reports that he'd be a better contact hitter, but he K'd more than expected. Fortunately, he walked more than expected also, which calms down that high K worry.

He won't be the hitter David Wright is, but I think he'll be what people always thought Eric Chavez should be.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 28, 2025 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

chavez

i think chavez has/had a lot more raw power (hitting 20 HR in 88 games as a 20 year old in AA), besides that, i think its a good comparison

speaking of chavez, its pretty disappointing to see the decline he's been on for about 3 years now, is it just nagging injuries?

by nyybaseball99 on Nov 28, 2025 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

check that

it was 22 HR and 27 doubles in AA for chavez

by nyybaseball99 on Nov 28, 2025 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea...

Chavez, like Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn, was one of those guys who looked special in the minor leagues. Sick numbers.

That shoulder injury he's been playing through a couple years is what seems to be the cause of his falling offense.

The funny thing is he had a better season than given credit for. He still had a good OBP and an ISO of almost .200, while playing great defense.

Still he was expected to be a .300/.400/.500 player. He was my favorite player from day one, but Zimmerman is quickly replacing him.

I doubt Zimmerman will ever be a .300/.400/.500 guy, but I could see him hitting .300/.375/.500+ or better in the future.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 28, 2025 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks John

As someone who requested this CB, I sure hope Zimm can live up to this. What is most striking is the sheer consistency. A long, healthy career with very consistent numbers.

That said I would vote

"Too optimistic. His career won't be in Washington for 20 years" : )
....althought they will have that revenue from the new park. Hmmmmm...

I think that God in creating Man somewhat overestimated his ability. - Oscar Wilde

by Skellig on Nov 28, 2025 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

speaking of which

how is the new Nats stadium supposed to profile...any reports of whether it'll be pitcher or hitter friendly?

in re Zimmerman, I agree that the crystal ball is for a great career, but can't disagree with the optimism -- seems as talented and consistent as can be.

another question might be how many gold gloves he wins.

by scooter on Nov 28, 2025 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Supposedly

It's going to be a very pitcher-friendly stadium.

by mrkupe on Nov 28, 2025 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the CB John

2013-14 looks like MVP-quality years

by NFA Brian on Nov 28, 2025 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

.284/.369/.488 for those wondering.

by mckeeno on Nov 28, 2025 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like it

I think he will hit for more power and be just as good if not better than David Wright.

by yoda1 on Nov 28, 2025 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

defense

I watch him a few times on TV and wow, I think he is better IMO than Rolen and Chavez.

by LCT on Nov 28, 2025 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scott Rolen comp

Do you guys think this would be a fair comp?....a healthy Rolen, glove, bat etc.

by gashousegang on Nov 28, 2025 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think..

... he will hit near that many HR's.

by ISC on Nov 28, 2025 5:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like it

but I think it's naive at this time in MLB to think of anyone being a career player for 1 team.

If he's not "greedy" then the owner will move him along because he's "moneyball-managing"

MVP seasons at 28? Seems like the perfect time to sell high to me.

If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.

by kings33 on Nov 28, 2025 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hope they...

sell him to the Cubs.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 28, 2025 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projecting a career with one team

I don't think there's any alternative. I don't think anyone, including John, expects Zimmerman to spend a career in Washington, but why waste time projecting what team he will be going to? Might as well stick with the club he has and focus on the numbers.

I think what's naïve is assuming John didn't take this into consideration.

by TomC on Dec 3, 2025 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad and Good

Peak yearly production won't be quite that high. K rate should decline under 100 faster.

by jaguar2490 on Nov 28, 2025 6:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hr

Yearly HR production

by jaguar2490 on Nov 28, 2025 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better than Wright?

I'm not looking for a total package, but do you think Zimmerman will have a better career stats wise compared Wright?

Apparently: https://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/14/12441/852

In the name of David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Lastings Milledge. Amen.

by BlackOps on Nov 28, 2025 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Heh.

Both of them are on the 2018 and 2019 Nats.

by I'm NOT Corco on Nov 28, 2025 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At least

barring a trade, Wright will not be going to the O's in 2011. Now, if he can put up John's projected numbers that year as a Met . . .

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Nov 29, 2025 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seen him plenty

this year and last and what impresses me is his willingness and desire to work hard and improve. Phillies struck him out alot at the end of 2k5 with outside breaking balls. This year, now way.

He is also a very aggressive and smart baserunner (on a simple OF single he will sprint to 1st and turn on the bag at full speed before slowing up).

Zimmy has good gap power, the new stadium is much more a hitters park than RFK, especially to Right Center.

by VladiHondo on Nov 28, 2025 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like it

Its nice to see a crystal ball that has a player putting together a career of this length.

-Teo

by tcutter on Nov 28, 2025 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

please answer question

I can't believe those who say the career projections are "optimistic." Basically, the projections suggest that he won't get much better (and sometimes worse) than he was in 2006 -- at the age of 21.

Someone please answer this serious question: Name more than a couple players who, at confirmed true age of 21, in modern times, hit .287 with 20 HRs playing 150 or more games -- in a season where they were 21 throughout.

by Grego on Nov 28, 2025 9:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

DWright

only played in 69 games at age 21. He hit .297 with 14 HR in 263 AB.

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Nov 29, 2025 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

optimistic

2828 hits
446 homers
1738 rbi

all three comfortably exceed the career totals of his top 10 bbrf comps.

he put up an OPS+ of 116 through age 21
very good, but not earth shattering
His 10 BBREF comps collectively put up 117 through age 21.

his OPS was 822 last year
his CB gives him 5 years over 900 with a high of 981

Also .287-20 in 150 games- using Zimmerman's #s as minimums guarantees you a list of players who are all better than Zimmerman

how about 140-160 games .275-.300 average 15-25 homers instead?

Ken Keltner 149G .276-26-113
Ron Santo 154G .283-23-83
Whitey Lockman: 146g .286-18-59 (117 runs)

by Johnny Ruin on Nov 29, 2025 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"I know everything about film. I've seen over 240 of them" Dwight

by natsfan2005 on Dec 1, 2025 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"not getting much better" ??!?!

NOT getting much better?

John has him hitting 35 HR in 587 at bats, rather than his 20 in well over 600 at bats.

That's almost doubling his HR rate.

I'd say that's PLENTY of room to improve.

by Mudcatsfan on Dec 1, 2025 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another 21 year old with those numbers

omeone please answer this serious question: Name more than a couple players who, at confirmed true age of 21, in modern times, hit .287 with 20 HRs playing 150 or more games -- in a season where they were 21 throughout.

Miguel Cabrera.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
160 603 101 177 31 1 33 112 5 2 68 148 .294 .366 .512

by Mudcatsfan on Dec 1, 2025 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another 21 year old with those numbers

Obviously Pujols did it.

Missed it by one year, but Vlad did this at 22 (his first FULL year)

159 623 108 202 37 7 38 109 11 9 42 95 .324 .371 .589

I also think Delmon Young will be capable of matching those numbers this coming year when he's 21.

by Mudcatsfan on Dec 1, 2025 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hm....

Well there once was a theory that hitters brought up too early rarely improved significantly.

It was what people blamed guys like Chavez from ever reaching their full potential.

It was never really followed up on though, last time I heard anyone even mention it was in like '05.

by SenorGato88 on Nov 28, 2025 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Chavez numbers

As for likening him to Chavez -- Eric at age of 21 hit .247, 13 HR, 115 games....

at 22 Chavez brought it up to .273 but has never hit as high in a season as Zimmerman did at age 21.

by Grego on Nov 28, 2025 10:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As I said earlier

re: Cabrera, Pujols, Vlad, Andruw, others: CONFIRMED age 21....

by Grego on Dec 1, 2025 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Well, I like Zimm and all. But Miggy, Pujols and Andruw all hit over 30 bombs. So while you're framing it as if Zimm's accomplishment is right there with what they did... it's really not.

"I know everything about film. I've seen over 240 of them" Dwight

by natsfan2005 on Dec 1, 2025 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Again

I would suggest that none of those 3 were actually 21 or under when they hit their "30 bombs."

Besides, "bombs" aren't everything.

Finally, how many of you were among the consensus here (hundreds voting) who last year predicted Zimm would hit 10 or fewer HRs this year? Come on, you can use your "projections" based on minor league stats to a fault.

by Grego on Dec 3, 2025 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another way to look at it

Compared to the great third baseman of all time- Schmidt, Brett, Mathews, Brooks Robinson, Santo- Zimmerman is behind only Mathews' pace, taking into account offence and defence.

Scott Rolen had a very similar year to Zimmerman's 2006 at age 22 (a year older) and walked away with a Rookie of the Year award. Rolen/Santo seems to be the path he's on, and it is certainly possible that he can be a little better than both of them.

by Mike Green on Dec 1, 2025 12:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs