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Cincinnati Reds Pre-Season Top 20 in Review

Cincinnati Reds Pre-Season Top 20 Prospects in Review

1) Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
   Hit .293/.374/.512 with 13 homers in 70 games for Triple-A Louisville, .222 in 10 games (18 at-bats) for the Reds. His AAA numbers are solid and he remains an excellent, if often overlooked, prospect.
2) Richie Gardner, RHP  
   3-5, 5.72 in 11 starts at Double-A Chattanooga, with a 42/19 K/BB in 57 innings, allowing 73 hits. Has not been fully healthy this year, bothered by bicep soreness.
3) Joey Votto, 1B
   Hitting .256/.342/.408 with 8 homers and 87 strikeouts in 80 games for Class A Sarasota. Disappointing numbers, I thought he would break through but it has not happened.
4) Thomas Pauly, RHP
   Won't pitch this year due to shoulder injury.
5) Homer Bailey, RHP
   4.14 ERA, 69/37 K/BB in 59 innings for Class A Dayton. Showing good stuff, strong K/IP ratio, needs better control.
6) B.J. Szymanski, OF
   Hitting .255/.349/.455 for Dayton, but limited to just 29 games so far by a knee injury.
7) Todd Coffey, RHP
   In 29 innings for the Reds, has a 5.59 ERA, 17/6 K/BB, and 44 hits allowed. Good command but way too hittable.
8) William Bergolla, 2B
   Hit .314/.345/.419 in 48 games for Louisville, just .132 in 17 games for the Reds. Not ready for the Show, needs more Triple-A.
9) Tyler Pelland, LHP
   4.40 ERA for Sarasota, but with a 73/33 K/BB in 59 innings. Very strong K/IP ratio is a positive sign; he's a sleeper.
10) Carlos Guevara, RHP
    Another guy to watch, 1.95 ERA with 41/12 K/BB in 32 innings for Sarasota, allowing only 22 hits and 1 homer, 6 saves.
11) Paul Janish, SS
    .245/.346/.385 in 208 at-bats for Dayton, overall production not impressive although his strike zone judgment has been decent.
12) Daylan Childress, RHP
    Put on waivers after posting a 6.75 ERA in 11 Triple-A games. Claimed by Minnesota, sent to Double-A, but continuing to struggle with 6.29 ERA. Command has been biggest problem this year.
13) Matt Belisle, RHP
    Used as swingman in Cincinnati and doing decently, 4.07 ERA in 55 innings, 36/17 K/BB ratio. Should post similar numbers in second half.
14) Bubba Nelson, RHP
    3.68 ERA, 10 saves, 48/14 K/BB in 44 innings for Chattanooga. Has handled conversion to relief quite well, stock is rebounding.
15) Jesse Gutierrez, 1B-C
    .310/.360/.530 in 26 games for Chattanooga, hitting very well, but won't play again this year due to torn ACL (hat tip to Red Reporter).
16) Steve Kelly, RHP
    5-4, 4.08 ERA in 17 starts for Louisville, 61/34 K/BB in 97 innings. Doing OK, not great, not bad.
17) Elizardo Ramirez, RHP
    2.99 ERA in 11 starts for Louisville, but 8.46 in 4 starts for the Reds. Weak K/IP ratio of 42/69 at AAA was a big red flag (no pun intended) for his chances in the Majors.
18) Steve Smitherman, OF
    .248/.272/.333 at Louisville, poor numbers, led to demotion to Chattanooga, where he's at .234/.322/.403. Inability to control strike zone consistently inhibits his power.
19) Joe Valentine, RHP
    9.53 ERA for the Reds, 5.93 for Louisville. Combined K/BB on the year is 28/33 in 39 innings. Obviously the problem here is poor control. He has a good arm but can't throw strikes.
20) Rafael Gonzalez, RHP
    Was horrible in 10 games for Dayton (9.35 ERA), and is starting over again at short-season Billings. 2.35 mark so far, but with poor 12/12 K/BB in 15 innings. Raw ability is here but will need lots of time.

Lots of injury attrition here. Encouraging signs are performances from Belisle in the Show and Nelson in Double-A.    

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What about
Jovan Moran?  How do you see him as a prospect?  He's been tearing it up this month.  Not a lot of power, but seems speedy and can make contact.  Can this guy be a regular contributer to the majors in the future?  I know he's not exactly young for the league.. but other than that dont know much about him.

Thanks for doing a top 20 review on Cincy.  I appreciate it.

by cincyinco on Jul 13, 2025 4:45 PM EDT reply actions  

moran
Moran I like enough that I will likely include him on my midsummer Top 50 prospects list for the newsletter.

by John Sickels on Jul 13, 2025 4:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Need clarification
Are you talking about your Top 50 overall prospects list?  That seems like an awful big jump for a guy that didn't even make the Reds Top 20 at the beginning of the season.  

by joerote on Jul 13, 2025 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes
yes. I am considering it.

by John Sickels on Jul 13, 2025 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Votto
I really thought he would break out too, and for awhile looked like he was going to with a burst of power, but that fizzeled out. His walk rate has been getting better and his power has tailed off as the season has gone forward. The biggest improvement in the system has to be Medlock with a 2.91 ERA, 7.68 K/9, 3.88 K/BB in the FSL.

by rdiersin on Jul 13, 2025 6:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Janish
Also, John, Janish is out with TJ surgery, IIRC.

by rdiersin on Jul 13, 2025 6:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Pauly
How serious is Pauly's injury? I had really high hopes for him after he dominated Potomac last season.

by OnBaseMachine on Jul 13, 2025 6:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Last I knew
He was done for the year..

by cincyinco on Jul 13, 2025 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Travis Wood
IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Wood 3.2 2 0 0 0 6 0 0.00

Keeps on going...  I thought the reds were crazy taking this guy in the 2nd from what I read about him.  

by cincyinco on Jul 13, 2025 6:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Wood
I think that puts Wood at 11IP/19K's for the season.

Off the charts numbers.

by jmcclain19 on Jul 13, 2025 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Smitherman
Has this guy fallen from grace or what.

At the end of the 2003 season, he was the Reds minor leaguer of the year, got called up to the show, and was going to Louisville as one of the Reds top prospects. Now he's been demoted, and still can't hit at AA. Sad to see.

by jmcclain19 on Jul 13, 2025 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Reds system
Right up there with the Yankees as the worst in the game.  Encarnacion would be the only one in my opinion to make some other teams top 20.

by murraygd13 on Jul 13, 2025 7:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Booker
John, what do you think of Chris Booker?  I know he's too old to be a prospect, but do you think his season so far bodes well for how he'd do in a call-up?
www.redreporter.com

by JD Arney on Jul 14, 2025 8:23 AM EDT reply actions  

booker
Great arm and it looks like he is starting to gain a bit of command. If he keeps that up, he could be excellent. If not, well, he's Joe Valentine.

by John Sickels on Jul 14, 2025 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gardner
Richie Gardner is coming of the DL next week.

by baseballmom7 on Jul 14, 2025 11:38 AM EDT reply actions  

4/8 Man Rotation
John,

Did the Reds discontinue their experiment with the 3-day-rest, tandem pitching rotation in the lower minors?  I'm looking at the stats of Sarasota and Dayton and it looks like maybe they did (Bailey 17G/14 GS).

Any news?  One of the ideas was that you'd get fewer injuries, but the top 20 review is pretty ugly.  I know there's a sample size issue, but what was/is the reaction among the experts?  

Thanks,
Arthur

by Arthur on Jul 15, 2025 8:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Tandem
Well, none of their pitchers are doing particularly well.

As for the tandem thing, it wasn't totally discontinued, but they changed it to give their pitchers 5 days rest.  Some of the guys arms were getting tired, even with the lower pitch counts.  They still only let them pitch 75 pitches, but they now get 5 days rest.  I think they were talking about going back to it after the break, so well see.  I don't think it has worked well and I wish they would scrap it.  

I'd love to hear John's opinion on it though.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jul 15, 2025 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Josh Hall and Bobby Basham
Josh Hall and Bobby Basham seem to have some good if small stats (only 9 games and 2 games so far) at AA-Chattanooga.  Frankly, I was stunned to see Basham's name.

Any (hopefully good) news on them?

by Arthur on Jul 15, 2025 9:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Basham
He started in Sarasota and in 50.1 IP, he gave up 60 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 42 SO.

Also, I think for the younger pitchers (Bailey and Valiquette) Dayton has them pitching every 5th day, and I think they have been mainly starting. They still have been on a strict pitch count.

by rdiersin on Jul 15, 2025 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not good.
I thought the whole point of the experiment was combining the 3-days-rest with pitch counts/tandems.  

The idea was that by pitching more often (3-days) but not enough to get tired (pitch count) you'd improve your mechanics that much faster and without pitching tired and risking injury.  Then at higher levels you'd stretch out the pitch counts and go back to 4-days rest.

5-days rest but still 75 pitch limits?  You get better by pitching, not sitting in the bullpen.  

I'd love to hear John's thoughts too.

by Arthur on Jul 15, 2025 5:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Everything
That I have ever read about the tandem starter theory's purpose is not so much to have them pitching sooner and more often to fix mechanics, as it was to build arm strength and get these kids used to the every day rigors and grinds of professional baseball.  Maybe it was putting too much strain on them.  Young arms need proper rest.

In fact, I think pitch counts are important, but I dont think they are the end all when it comes to pitching.  I think as long as the arm gets the proper REST between starts, that is the key.  I dont think strict pitch counts are necessary in the upper levels.  Granted, you dont want to completely ABUSE an arm ala Dusty Baker, but I wouldn't necessarily pull a pitcher at 100 if they were doing well either...  I'll see if I can dig up some links to more info about the tandem starter stuff...

by cincyinco on Jul 15, 2025 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

in my opinion
eta hoffmann der goldene topf gesellschaft fur mathematik bat tabelle west porto real resort zeitungen bad im kino druckertinte nachfullen kaffee rezepte bbc training videos die lieben sieben cd fach ich weiy es wird einmal ein wunder shelley e delle palme roland kaiser dich zu lieben volume 1 dvdrip ac3 xvid 3d design suite werkstatt de on the job training in take these things und die wunder im dunkeln flughafen dresden de create form on schiff andras www ostsee zeitung de university film program wechsel zelt internet radio drum universitat zu koln elektronisches tagebuch sudafrikanische weine

by Isisaston on Dec 19, 2025 5:13 PM EST reply actions  

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