Blast from the Past: Prospects of 1997

A look back at 1991, with similar Hall of Famers based on thier age in 1999.

1. Todd Van Poppel, 0
   
2. Andujar Cedeno, 0
   
3. Ryan Klesko, 0
   
7. Ivan Rodriguez, 5
   
10. Mo Vaughn, 1 + McGriff
    
11. Bernie Williams, 1 + several borderline types, which is fitting, since Bernie is the ultimate question mark.
    
14. Raul Mondesi, 1 + Dawson
    
19. Mike Mussina, baseballreference.com does not do age based similarity scores (except for most similar) for pitchers. Moose has 5 Hall comparable players at age 35, and was on a Hall of Fame path in 1999 at age 30.
    
32. Jeff Bagwell, 0. Many comparable players are still active and chasing the hall themselves, and of course Bagwell is probably in already. If he's not, all the arguing becomes moot in 54 HR's.
    
49. Chipper Jones, 2.

It does look like the crop of talent in the mid 90's is a little better than six years earlier, but that should be expected with all the extra offense during that time.

Before I go on my tirade, I want to say, by no means do I believe Andruw Jones goes to the Hall if he retired today. The point I make is that he is on a Hall of Fame path. Many players on the path to the Hall at age 27 don't make it (Strawberry). And many come out of nowhere (Palmiero) in thier 30's.

But let's look at it like this. Andruw Jones was 27 when 2004 ended. He has 250 HR's. In other words, if he can average 25 HR's a year over the next 10 years, presumably his physical prime, he will have 500 and be a Hall of Famer. I'll state that another way. If a player who averaged 32 HR's from age 21-27 can average 25 from age 28-37, he'll have 500 and be in the Hall, no questions asked. If he averages 32 HR's a year, he only needs eight years to get to 500.

Next, look at the players that hit more homers by the age of 27. Of the nine players, seven are in or will be in. A-Rod would make it eight if you believe he's a Hall of Famer already. That makes the only question mark....Juan Gonzalez. Juan's got 66 HR's (at least) worth of work to do. Those are pretty good comparables.

This is the spot where I differ VEHEMENTLY with others on Andruw Jones. I believe Andruw Jones is a SUPERSTAR! Sure, he doesn't have any 50 HR 150 RBI years under his belt. His OPS isn't going to be over 1.000. But he more than makes up for it with his defense, and with his baserunning. Just because he doesn't steal bases, doesn't mean that he's not a good baserunner. So many people want to overlook these aspects of the game. As much as the power boom has impacted the game, baseball is still won one base at a time. And how many runs does he save with his glove? As if scoring and knocking in in the mid 90's isn't enough.

Another thing to take into account. For all this hype about Carlos Beltran, his career OBP is only 11 points higher, and his career slugging is 3 points lower. Jones's OPS+ is actually higher. Beltran is better on the bases, Jones is better defensively. Now grant it, Beltran is still young and could improve and Jones is the older of the two. By a whole day! Nobody would argue with the fact that Beltran is a superstar, because he's a little more glamourous (roto baseball affects our thinking, whether we like it or not), hits for a higher average, and is coming off sigining a big free agent deal. But do you really think Beltran is going to play that much better than Jones (if at all) going forward? If past performance is any indication, they will be very even in thier overall on field production. Yes my friends, Andruw Jones is a superstar.