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Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2011

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!

Star-divide

 

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2011

1) Chris Sale, LHP, Grade A: I don't see how I can give him anything but a Grade A considering how his debut went. Starter or closer, either way he looks great to me.

2) Brent Morel, 3B, Grade B: Should be a solid regular, very good glove, bat will be enough, Joe Randa comps are common and accurate, in my view.

3) Dayan Viciedo, 1B, Grade B-: I respect the fact that he can hit decently with plate discipline this bad, but I expect that he will be streaky.

4) Addison Reed, RHP, Grade B-: I seem to like him more than other people do, but what's not to like? Good stuff, knows how to pitch, main question is long-term role.

5) Jared Mitchell, OF, Grade C+: This assumes he returns to full health. He didn't look right in the Arizona Fall League. If his speed (and confidence in his legs) don't fully return, it would be a great shame.

6) Jacob Pericka, RHP, Grade C+: Very live arm from 2010 draft, but rather raw, future role undefined.

7) Eduardo Escobar, SS, Grade C+: Great glove, but will he hit enough for it to be relevant?

8) Gregory Infante, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-thrower who could fit nicely into bullpen.

9) Andre Rienzo, RHP, Grade C+: This guy is a huge sleeper. You won't see him on many other lists, but he has good stuff and good numbers. From Brazil.


10) Thomas Royse, RHP, Grade C+: Inning-eating ground ball specialist, possible number four starter eventually.

11) Tyler Saladino, SS, Grade C+: Infielder out of Oral Roberts in the 2010 draft, good bat, glove can possibly stick at shortstop.

12) Mike Blanke, C, Grade C+: Hit well in the Pioneer League with decent defense, like Saladino a sleeper from this year's draft to watch.

13) Santos Rodriguez, LHP, Grade C+: Borderline C, Power lefty arm is rare, needs to cut walks.

14) Brandon Short, OF, Grade C: Interesting bat, but strike zone judgment was weak in the Carolina League and Double-A transition could be difficult.

15) Trayce Thompson, OF, Grade C: Would rank higher on tools alone, but is approach needs a lot of work.

16) Anthony Carter, RHP, Grade C: Another potentially good relief arm.

17) Jordan Danks, OF, Grade C: Good glove, but hope for his bat is fading.

18) Tyler Flowers, C, Grade C: Stock has dropped massively, but this may be a "buy low" case where he ends up midway between '09 and '10 eventually.

19) Charles Leesman, LHP, Grade C: Erratic lefty has a good fastball and slider combo, but all over the map last year in performance.

20) Josh Phegley, C, Grade C: Weird medical condition, strike zone issues, and shaky defense have kept him from living up to college production.

OTHERS OF NOTE: Spencer Arroyo, LHP; Kyle Bellamy, RHP; Ryan Buch, RHP; Justin Collop, RHP; Terry Doyle, RHP; Miguel Gonzalez, C; Nevin Griffith, RHP; Deunte Heath, RHP, Matt Heidenreich, RHP; Kevin Moran, RHP; Rangel Ravelo, RHP; Dan Remenowsky, RHP; Charlie Shirek, RHP; Andy Wilkins, 1B.

This system is not in good condition.

Chris Sale is excellent and Brent Morel is solid and I like Addison Reed, but after that you have nothing but questions. Can Viciedo develop even adequate plate discipline? Where does he fit on the roster? You have the makings of a nice relief corps but you need some starting pitchers, too. There are some intriguing tools guys but most of them have flawed approaches. No one seems to know if Mitchell will ever be the same after his ankle injury.

Three sleepers that I like a lot are Rienzo, Saladino, and Blanke, but we need more data about all of them.

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Sale

Surprised by the straight A, but who am I to argue against it? But if he does only relieve I would rather have Kimbrall I think. This system was better than I thought.

by gpellet41 on Jan 5, 2026 8:07 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed.

I was surprised by the A. John, does Sale’s mechanics make you nervous at all (especially as a starter)? I have heard whispers that his awkward motion was one reason a lot of teams shyed away from him in the draft.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Same reason

They stayed away from Lincecum. That worked out well for them.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 9:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Right

Because all pitchers with bad mechanics turn in Lincecumesque performances.

by killa on Jan 6, 2026 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

They aren't bad

they’re unorthodox. Huge difference. Not all pitchers turn in Lincecumesque performances because they don’t have the talent to begin with. Sale has it in spades.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 9:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Lincecum's are unique, while Sale's are bad from an injury perspective

Comparing the two just because they’re unorthodox is ridiculous. Lincecum’s delivery has no red flags in it and he throws completely over the top. Sale’s has the single biggest red flag a pitcher can have and he throws from a near side-arm slot. Say whatever you want about breaking down pitching mechanics, but it is never good when a pitcher brings his elbow above his shoulder. Try doing it yourself and see how natural it feels. Then think about doing that violently thousands of time a year.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not expert on pitching mechanics...

but wouldn’t having a lower arm slot mean your elbow would be lower as well?

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry if I wasn't clear

When he’s circling the ball back, before it ever moves forward, his elbow gets significantly above his shoulder. That’s the issue and its a big one.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Pseudoscience

Sooo sick of seeing the “inverted w” being the calling card for people who try to link likleyhood of injuries to a pitcher. There’s no real empirical data to support it.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Did I claim it was science?

Say whatever you want, but getting your elbow above your shoulder is not a good thing. It doesn’t doom Sale to definite injury or anything, but it certainly makes it more likely. This isn’t some new-fangled thing pitching mechanics experts created on their own. Pitching coaches have been saying the same thing for decades now.

I’ll say it one more time. Try bringing your elbow to almost ear level and see how natural that feels. Then imagine doing that as violently as possible thousands of times every single season. Maybe Sale is a genetic freak who can get away with doing it as a starter for an extended period of time. Smoltz went about a decade before he had to go under the knife, though his was less pronounced and he had a freakish tolerance for pain.

I just think the possible increase in injury likelihood combined with the fact that he hasn’t thrown a pitch as a starter on the professional level, is more than enough to keep him out of the straight A range. Even without the mechanical question I probably couldn’t bring myself to give Sale a straight A.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

When you

talk about human physiology and attaching probabilities to it… like it or not you’re making a claim that is in fact based in science.

Of course bringing my elbow up like that will be uncomfortable. I’m not used to doing it. I know this is nothing new. In fact it has gotten quite old / antiquated.

“Pitching coaches have been saying the same thing for decades now”.
Completely anecdotal..

Who cares if he hasn’t thrown a pitch as a starter. That’s the weakest arguement yet. Bryce Harper hasn’t done shit professionally - yet I don’t think too many are worried about the grade he got.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Bryce Harper was also the consensus #1 pick

Sale wasn’t considered to be anything close to his level at the time of the draft and what he did solely out of the pen in his professional debut wasn’t nearly enough for me to put him on that level.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I dunno

Sale was considered by some (e.g. BA) to be a top 5 talent in the draft, and then he dominated in the majors in his draft year. Hard to ask for more from a prospect.

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

He dominated in relief though

Even if you really liked him before the draft, I couldn’t imagine giving him higher than a B+ (Harper and Stras are the only recent prospects I would have given higher before they debuted professionally). Seeing him dominate out of the pen might be enough to push that to an A-. but IMO doing that out of the pen doesn’t push him to an A.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

WHO CARES!!!!

Yes - it was in relief. Big deal. When you look that good, you’re still doing it against MLB hitters. Sure, his numbers will come down a bit as a starter, but they are still going to be quite good.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Joba Chamberlain says hello

Some guys stuff doesn’t translate from relief to starting nearly as well as others. Until I see how well his stuff plays as a starter, I’m not going to anoint him one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Just my opinion though, you’re welcome to disagree.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

That's actually a valid point...

and a big reason why I am against putting him in the pen again this season. He should be starting in the minors. However, I don’t think Joba has ever been advanced enough with his offspeed stuff, especially his change. He also is clearly out of shape and can’t compete deep into games. I wouldn’t necessarily use him as a comp.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a comp

Just an example of how a guy with merely good stuff as a starter can have his stuff play up as unhittable out of the pen.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Also valid...

but Lowe was not a power pitcher. A big reason Joba could make the transition was because his velocity went from about 99 in relief to about 92 when starting. That’s a big difference. I will be very interested to see what Sale’s velocity looks like if/when he starts.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Joba's velo

was supect to begin with - it jumped and then came back down.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought his velocity was up all of 2007

It was better than it was at Nebraska, but then again his mechanics improved substantially which explained the velocity increase. Of course it was jumped still higher in relief, but that is to be expected.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Did you read my post?
Some guys stuff doesn’t translate from relief to starting nearly as well as others

That’s why I want to see him start professionally before I give him the highest grade a prospect can earn. I understand your opinion, and while I don’t agree I think its defensible. I’m not sure why you can’t admit the same.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Because I know

I’m usually right.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow

I can’t believe I ever dared question you. Must be interesting going through life thinking that you’re opinion is the only reasonable one.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

My opinion

isn’t the only reasonable one. I just don’t think yours is. You keep reaching for stuff that is largely unfounded or trivial at best.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Alright then

So question how well stuff will translate from relief to starting is now either unfounded or trivial at best. That’s a new one to me.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep

If we had never seen him as starter before it would be a valid concern. The Sox move him to the pen for a few months and now all of a sudden there is some doubt as to whether he can through the order more than once, despite not displaying this problem in college. Yeah, I know they are college hitters, but even at 85-90% of what he did last year - he’s a grade A prospect with that talent.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait what?

Who questioned his ability to go through the order more than once? I wondered how well his stuff would carry later into starts, but that was about it.

And I guess where we disagree is how we viewed his stuff coming into the draft. He didn’t show off the stuff of an A prospect in college IMO. The only guy that’s done that in recent memory is Strasburg. He showed good enough stuff in college where I would have given him a B+ without what I see as the injury red flag, but that’s it.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Basically the same thing

You wondered if his stuff carry later into starts - pretty much same thing as saying the second/third time through the order. By all accounts I’ve seen, he didn’t lose anything as the game progressed. You having a concern over it just strikes me as you reaching for straws.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Very different IMO

Guys who have mediocre stuff tend to get hit harder their second and third times through the lineup because the hitters have already seen everything they have. The best example I can think of off the top of my head is Chuck James. First time through the order, hitters posted a .701 OPS, second time it jumped to .836, and by the third time it was up to .983

I think its tougher to carry stuff later into starts as a professional than a amateur. You have to expend more energy because there are fewer easy outs in the lineups (though going from aluminum to wood helps). I also wonder how good and consistent the slider will be as a starter (based on reports it didn’t sound nearly as good as a starter in college). Perhaps as he tires, he has more trouble spinning good ones consistently. These things don’t keep him from being a very, very good prospect. Its just that IMO, they keep him from attaining the highest possible grade a prospect can get.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

but...

he doesn’t have mediocre stuff. He has fantastic pitches - even if he loses some as a starter, he has enough to be very successful. I dunno - I guess I see it as innocent until proven guilty where you have taken a more guilty until proven innocent.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry if that was confusing

The mediocre stuff part was only related to the first paragraph (guys who can’t get through an order 2 or 3 times). Sale certainly does not fall into that group of pitchers.

I just want to see how well his stuff carries late into starts. Its not that I’m assuming he can’t do it, its just I’m going to take a wait and see approach. Guys who prove they can do it get credit for doing so, and its extremely hard for me to give someone an A when I’m not sure about something so important to being a starter.

Like I said earlier, I would probably find it easier to give Sale an A if he had simply made some starts at AA last year, posted good numbers, and gotten great reports on the stuff and how he held it late into games. That would have meant more for me in terms of grading then him looking good against MLB hitters out of the pen.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

That's an interesting proposition...

I wonder what John would say to that. Would you have been more impressed by great numbers in the minors as a starter or in the majors as a reliever?

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Dude...

he blew away hitters at the major league level the same year he was drafted. It’s not like he just got there, by the end of the season he was dominant. If that doesn’t deserve an A, I’m not sure what does.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh, Sale had a really impressive debut, regardless of whether he was coming out of the bullpen. He was a top-of-the-draft talent who had an impact MLB debut in his draft season, and who projects as an excellent starter. If you want to be wary of perceived flaws in his delivery, that’s your prerogative, but their little to quibble about in his performance or profile.

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Which is why I haven't quibbled with his performance or profile

I just want to see him start as a professional before I slap the highest possible grade on him.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

guilty until proven innocent.

Prospects, especially pitching prospects, are always guilty until proven innocent. Where the heck have you been?

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

well

If you have questions about his ability to be a starter, then you are questioning his profile.

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

That's seems a bit unfair

I said I want to see how well his stuff plays as a starter and how well he carries it late into starts before I give him a perfect grade. I’m not saying he won’t start or anything, just that I’m not going to assume that because his stuff looked amazing out of the bullpen, it will be similarly good as a starter and it will last late into starts. Like I said elsewhere, reports on his slider weren’t as good in college. Isn’t it possible that the move to the bullpen helped it play up and it could regress back to its former level once he’s starting again?

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure how that's unfair

Those seem pretty explicitly to be questions about his ability to be a starter.

I will note that a pitcher does not need to be completely devoid of questions to get an A grade.

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Nope, questioning his ability AS a starter

Its primarily questioning just how good he will be as a starter, not whether or not he can actually start. Barring injury, I have little doubt he’d be better than replacement level as a starter, so he could do it. It may just be a matter of him being more valuable in the bullpen or as a starter depending on how the stuff translates and how well he holds it later into appearances.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

You can't have it both ways

Sale was considered universally a top talent in the draft - not THE top talent, but one of the elites available - his stock slid due to delivery scaring people off. Your measurement for the above claim was that he hadn’t done anything as a starter as a pro. Neither has Harper. I’m not claiming Sale is on par with Harper by saying that. My point is both are elite prospects. Sale has demonstrated great ability in the minors and the pros. Harper has gone to the AFL and is no longer a catcher.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Harper also has unheard of tools for his age

He’s an exception for that reason just as Strasburg was. Sale’s stuff isn’t close to that level. Honestly, if he had started for a few games at AA and somehow shown the same stuff he did out of the bullpen and carried it into the 5th or 6th inning, I’d consider an A grade for him. Instead, we’re bumping his grade up solely because he showed great stuff out of the pen. That makes me more comfortable with his non-injury floor, but it did little to make me think more of his ceiling. Like I said, it might be enough to bump him up a grade (if I didn’t have injury worry, I might have bumped him from a B+ to an A-), but not enough for me to go up two or three grades.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Answer this

did he have problems going through the order for the second and third time in college? Then why is a concern now all of a sudden and not for other collge pitchers?

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a concern necessarily

Just a question to be answered. And yes, its a question I think every pitcher that hasn’t pitched professionally needs to answer. I’ll admit, I gave Strasburg a break on this one just because his stuff has otherworldly good, but again he’s the exception.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Using your reasoning

When we project possible velocity increases are we make claims that are in fact based on science? Does that not have to do with human physiology and attaching probabilities to increasing velocity? I assume you don’t like the “pseudoscience” of projecting the possibility of added velocity either, since you don’t like the “pseudoscience” of talking about injury concerns. Hell, using your reasoning much of prospecting is nothing more than a pseudoscience.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

There's no real empirical data on the effectiveness of batting stances but we don't hesitate to analyze those.

The important thing is we remain humble when doing so and not state things with any degree of astronomical certainty.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jan 6, 2026 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Stances and pitching motions are not at all comparable

Nobody is making claims about batting stances increasing the risk of injury.

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

That’s not apples and oranges - that’s comparing Key limes and watermelon.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not drawing lines to injury probabilites, though

I would, however, list a raised elbow issue as a negative, in general. I don’t think that’s substantially any different than critiquing a batting stance.

I think much of this antagonism towards discussing pitching mechanics is the fault of a few who think they can prove a causal relationship between certain elements of a pitcher’s delivery and injury. I disavow anything of the sort. All the same, when I see a guy with an inverted W type of delivery I do think of it as a slight negative… this is not the same as me assuming this guy will end up with a major injury. There is a middle path here and I think the extremism on both sides of this issue is kind of ridiculous.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jan 6, 2026 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

I think the guys who were saying some pitcher was going to get injured without a doubt based on youtube clips did a lot to hurt what could have been a reasonable discussion topic in terms of prospecting.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

a raised elbow issue as a negative, in general

Exactly. There are plenty of aspects of a delivery which can be reasonably expected to negatively impact performance, whether it’s control, issues of replication, effort. It’s not just about injuries, so yes, pitching delivery is absolutely comparable to hitting mechanics in terms of performance. I didn’t think this was a controversial concept, but then I guess it’s never been applied to Chris Sale, master pitcher! lol

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Right...

As a sort backlash against all the inverted W stuff we’ve gotten to the point where any discussion of pitching mechanics is immediately met with angry demands for empirical data. I can (and often do) discuss mechanics and deliveries without assuming they will lead to injury. There’s no need to cordon off the entire topic as a crime scene… lets just all make sure to be humble about the conclusions we draw and respectful of what we don’t know.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jan 6, 2026 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure I understand

You say that you aren’t drawing lines to injury, but you do consider specific aspects as negatives. Aren’t they negatives because the idea is that they lead to injury?

I can buy the idea that something like the inverted W could be potentially hazardous, but all the evidence I’ve seen behind it is so anecdotal that I can’t give it any credence. That’s the general “anti-mechanics” position, as I understand it, and I’m not sure how it is “extremist.”

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I can understand giving it limited credence, but none at all?

I mean with all the detractors out there, it would seem pretty easy to find plenty of examples of successful pitchers that had the inverted or raised elbow (it is possible to make the W without raising the elbow substantially above the shoulder) that had extended success without injury problems. Why not try to disprove the theory if you feel that strongly?

Honestly, I find the whole thing a little strange. It makes intuitive sense that its not a good thing to do. Many pitching coaches have always discouraged it. Now you want us to completely disregard it? It just reeks of being an overreaction to a few people who placed too much faith in their ability to predict injuries.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

What is there to disprove?

The entire body of evidence seems to consider of pointing to random examples and “intuition.” Pointing to other random examples in the other direction wouldn’t be any more convincing to me.

What pitching coaches discourage the Inverted W?

You don’t have to ignore it, but if you want to use it in a public critique you should be prepared to make a solid, non-anecdotal (or “intuitive”) case for it.

by aCone419 on Jan 6, 2026 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Counter-examples would disprove the whole thing

It would actually make your case that people are only pointing to random examples in one direction. It should be fairly easy to find counter-examples if that’s the case. If you can’t find any, well than that starts making the case a little more believable doesn’t it? For all the detractors out there, it would seem a pretty simple exercise to embarrass the “movement” simply by finding some good examples that inverted W guys don’t almost universally have injury issues.

As far as pitching coaches go, I can only go based off books people have published, which basically eliminates major league guys (though at that point you can’t really do much to change mechanics anyway). Off the top of my head, I know Joe McFarland does (his happened to be one of the first books I read when I really started getting into coaching pitching). He’s been coaching at the collegiate level for over 30 years now, head coach for over 20, last 13 at James Madison. His book was initially published back in 1985 and he spends a good deal of time talking about how pitchers need to make a W and not doing so can lead to injury.

I’d be all for making a non-anecdotal or intuitive case for these things being bad, but I don’t have 7 figure funding for equipment and the access to elite pitchers necessary to do so. As I said earlier though, do you require non-anecdotal or intuitive cases to be made for why pitchers will add velocity or hitters will add power? Prospecting is a game of uncertainties. Ignoring one factor because there isn’t scientific evidence to prove it, while paying attention to others in a similar situation just seems strange to me. I really would like to hear you rationalization for that. Maybe I’m just missing something.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

For all the detractors out there, it would seem a pretty simple exercise to embarrass the "movement" simply by finding some good examples that inverted W guys don’t almost universally have injury issues.

Not really; the vast majority of pitchers have injury issues at some point in their careers. For instance, I could point to Adam Wainwright, one of the best and most durable starters in the bigs today, but I know that he had a sore elbow many years ago, so that’s right out. Does it prove anything that Jon Lester, he of the 3 straight 200 IP seasons, brings his elbow a little above the shoulder? Jered Weaver? These are just the examples I found looking at this year’s WAR leaderboard.

It’s like me saying that being from Texas makes a pitcher likely to have arm problems, and then bringing forth a whole mess of examples. The fact is, the majority of pitchers get injured, and if you are only using random examples you can correlate pretty anything to them.
 

As I said earlier though, do you require non-anecdotal or intuitive cases to be made for why pitchers will add velocity or hitters will add power

No; the idea that teenagers get bigger and add muscle as they get older in not “anecdotal.”

by aCone419 on Jan 7, 2026 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Looking at those guys

Wainwright seems to fit the mold and he has in fact had quite a bit of arm problems, causing him to miss significant time and lose a few ticks of velocity. Lester is borderline. I worry less when the elbow is mostly behind the guy and just barely above the shoulder. As long as it doesn’t lead to a timing problem, I don’t think its a big deal. Weaver’s isn’t an issue at all. Its not the classic W, but the back elbow is behind him not raised. Based on the picture his timing looks just about perfect too as he’s still got enough time where his forearm should be near vertical at foot plant.

Comparing it to saying guys from Texas get injured just isn’t fair. There is no reason to think guys from Texas are more likely to get hurt than guys from elsewhere. The inverted W is something that at least some pitching coaches have been against for decades (McFarland was speaking out about it at an injury conference in 1983 and I’m sure he learned it from a mentor) and it makes intuitive sense that something that feels so unnatural makes someone more likely for injury.

As for the idea that teenagers get bigger and add muscle as they get older not being anecdotal, you are correct. However saying something like that will cause them to add velocity is anecdotal.

by nixa37 on Jan 7, 2026 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

off-base

Wainwright:

(a) Hasn’t had an arm injury in over 5 years; he missed time in 2008 with a finger injury, which has nothing to do with elbow angle. He hasn’t missed any other significant time since making the majors.

(b) Has not lost any velocity; if anything he has gained velocity the last few years:

05: 91.3 (as a RP)
06: 91.4
07: 89.4 (moved to SP, thus throttled down the heat)
08: 90.1
09: 90.9
10: 91.1

Lester: You can brush it off, but I found a guy, right (Lester was specifically mentioned as a guy to watch for by Mr. O’Leary)? You said counterexamples “would disprove the whole thing,” but of course they don’t, because one anecdote doesn’t overrule another.

There is no reason to think guys from Texas are more likely to get hurt than guys from elsewhere.

Sure there is; Texas high school sports are highly competitive, leading to those guys getting overworked by their high school coaches (Kerry Wood); also the warm weather all year round means they are able to throw constantly, thus overworking their arms at a young age.

Do I actually think that? No. But the premise is at least plausible, and I can guarantee you that I can come up with a long list of young Texas hurlers who came down with arm problems. The point is merely that a plausible premise + anecdotal correlation isn’t actually evidence of anything, at least when dealing with something so common as pitching injuries.

However saying something like that will cause them to add velocity is anecdotal.

Saying people have a tendency improve athletic skills when they add muscle that affects those athletic skills is not anecdotal. This is a very bad analogy.

by aCone419 on Jan 7, 2026 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I was working from John's prospect retro

You can check it out here.

Remember the strained elbow ligament back in high school? Elbow trouble cropped up again in 2004: he was limited to 12 starts for Triple-A Memphis, posting a 5.37 ERA.
Stuff wise, he doesn’t throw as hard as he did back before his 2004 injury

As for Lester, he’s made it 3 seasons so far. Smoltz made it a decade. No one knows if he’ll stay healthy long-term. I don’t agree with Chris O’Leary on everything either, so don’t lump my opinion in with his.

by nixa37 on Jan 7, 2026 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, give any pitcher a decade, and the overwhelming likelihood is that he will have an arm problem in there somewhere. I would be shocked if Lester retired at 40 without ever having an arm problem. That’s just not meaningful information. That’s pretty much the main point, which you aren’t addressing.

I’m not saying you have to agree with O’Leary’s analysis, but when the patron saint of the Inverted W identifies a guy as an example, I’m pretty sure he counts.

by aCone419 on Jan 7, 2026 8:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Patron saint of the inverted W?

Dude, pitching coaches have been teaching the W for decades, as I’ve mentioned. That’s the reason he calls it the inverted W. Its not something he created. He was just the first guy to popularize it on the internet. If you think he’s the patron saint of it, that’s part of your problem with not accepting anything having to do with mechanics.

On the subject of Smoltz, yeah he lasted a decade, but he had already struggled with elbow soreness before TJS, he probably lasted longer due to the move to the bullpen, and he ultimately needed shoulder surgery. No one is saying genetic freaks like Smoltz can’t last for awhile (he tried pitching out of the bullpen despite his shoulder clearly needing surgery in 2008 and came back in just a year), but they’re never going to have a career like Maddux, Clemens, Ryan, etc. Seriously, look at guys who have actually thrown a ton innings without injury and try to find some with an inverted W or extremely raised elbow. Those are the counter-examples I was talking about. The best one we’ve seen so far is Smoltz, and I gave you him from the start. Lester going 3 200+ inning season isn’t even a counter-example.

by nixa37 on Jan 7, 2026 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

“patron saint” was a joke.

Almost all pitchers get injured; trying to find a pitcher with an inverted W who NEVER gets injured is an absurdly difficult criteria. Of the three “injury free” examples, two of them (Ryan and Clemens) had serious arm injures in their early 20s.

And the third, Maddux, is a freakishly exception to the “all pitchers get injured rule.” I took a look at the top 25 pitcher to debut since 1980 (by rWAR) and Maddux is the ONLY one to never have an arm injury.

by aCone419 on Jan 12, 2026 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Aren’t they negatives because the idea is that they lead to injury?

Not necessarily. A lot of mechancial or delivery concerns relate to performance.

by blackoutyears on Jan 7, 2026 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Tbh

Sale’s doesn’t bother me. The elbow isn’t really in that bad a spot considering his arm slot.

Lincecum has plenty of red flags for me. He has a billion moving parts in his delivery. Its a very complex delivery that is hard to repeat. 99.9% of guys wouldn’t have the focus to keep that thing together and not mess up the timing.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jan 6, 2026 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

This gets to the two different ways you can analyze mechanics

Lincecum’s would have me worried from a consistency standpoint. If he weren’t so good at repeating them, they could lead to problems with control and command. I don’t think there are any injury red flags in them however.

Obviously, Sale’s are worrisome IMO for the injury red flags much more so than consistency red flags. The lean of his upper body does make the elbow position a little less worrisome, but its just so high that I can’t attribute it solely to that. Obviously that’s based on guy feel and intuition, not science, but I think its something that reasonable people can certainly discuss rationally.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

He has a billion moving parts

That’s actually my bigger issue with Sale as well, though. He seems to repeat his delivery well, so perhaps he’s Lincecum-esque in that regard, but there are a lot of moving parts to hold together. And I want to see how the breaking ball holds up in starter innings. It was his weakest pitch in college and is most suscpetible to arm slot issues (breaking balls flatten out as the elbow drops).

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

About the breaking ball...

I had heard the same, but then found it interesting (if not troubling) that he used his slider much more in relief than his change (which I had heard was pretty good). Why would he have scrapped a better pitch to go with a more inferior one? Is it a possibility they wanted him to work on that pitch for his future role as a starter maybe?

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Comparing the two just because they’re unorthodox is ridiculous.

Yeah, this is tiresome. Unorthodox does not equal bad, nor are mechanics uniformly bad simply by virtue of their being unorthodox. Please note this is not a vote for or againts Sale’e mechanics, but a vote against false equivalencies.

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really

That is what is scaring people off - the unorthodox nature of Sale’s delivery. I’m not saying that these 2 pitchers’ motions are comparable. What I am saying is that people see something that isn’t cookie cutter / prototypical so they immediately go into fear of the unknown mode - that’s all. Sale’s delivery is odd looking at first (a was Lincecum’s) but once you see it a bunch, you realize it’s quite fluid and repeatable.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The raised elbow is also scaring people off

Not everyone who doesn’t like the delivery dislikes it for the same reason. Yeah, some people probably don’t like it just because it isn’t prototypical, but don’t act like that’s the only reason someone could dislike it.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

That is what is scaring people off

You’re missing the point, which is that one can consider Lincecum’s delivery unorthodox without taking issue, which a lot of knowledgeable people did. And Lincecum was dinged as much for his size (fairly or not) as for his delivery, just as I have some concerns about Sale’s slender build holding up over 200+ innings year in and year out. Having that concern isn’t presaging anything, it’s just saying that being built like Roger Clemens is generally better for durability than being built like Emo Phillips.

This idea that Pitcher X had an unorthodox delivery and has been fine so Pitcher Y, with his COMPLETELY DIFFERENT unorthodox delivery, will also be fine is completely irrational. It’s like using Keith Richards as your barometer for the long terms effects of heroin use. Counting on a prospect to be or emulate an outlier is problematic to say the least.

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

You missed my point

Yes pitcher X had an unorthodox delivery and has been fine. No where did I say that means that pitcher Y is going to be fine. What I was getting at is that while Lincecum’s and Sale’s delivery are unconventional - it doesn’t mean that either is bad - the worries over Lincecum’s delivery are proving to be unwarranted, just as I think the same will hold true for Sale, because his delivery just doesn’t strike me as anymore risky than the vast majority of other prospects. It’s very quick, but it’s also very smooth and repeatable despite looking awkward at first glance - kinda like Lincecum’s was.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you need to read

what you wrote again. If you’re not raising a causal poitn, then Tim Lincecum has absolutely nothing to do with the prognosis for Sale. It’s either Lincecum is fine so Sale will be fine, or nothing. Saying that Sale will be fine “like” Lincecum (no linkage!!!) is an inanity.

As for Sale’s delivery being “very smooth”, I’m speechless. He’s commented on the awkwardness and number of moving parts himself, most famously in his interview during the draft.

by blackoutyears on Jan 7, 2026 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he wanted too much money

the white sox offered time in the majors in lieu of that

The only glove he needs is a batting glove. - RWShow on Adam Dunn signing.

by blackoutsox on Jan 6, 2026 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Trayce Thompson is as raw as they come, and he posted a 9% BB rate and an IsoP over .2 with really no idea how to hit. I see him as a C+/B- with huge upside.

I think I like Mitchell more than anyone but Sale.

Do you think Chris will start?

by WrenFGun on Jan 5, 2026 8:12 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

i like the C grade

because it tells me John took the stupid Stanton comp with a grain of salt. There are about a dozen young outfielders with huge upside that are ranked C/C+… Thompson should be a C because he’s as raw as they come.

by another know it all on Jan 5, 2026 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.

If he had put up a huge season at Low-A, I think there is an argument to be made for at least a B. But with the baby steps he showed, I think a C is legit. I might have bumped him to a C+. Also, don’t forget that a wrist injury ended his season last year and those tend to be pesky for power hitters.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Mitchell

What do you see his ceiling as? Does the C+ assuming full health mean you really think the lost dev time is going to bite him, or do you think his talent is more pedestrian?

by Johnny Tuttle on Jan 5, 2026 8:18 PM EST reply actions  

Good comp

Granderson with less pop and maybe a few more SBs?

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Marquis Grissom?

best case?

Cub Fan - Bud Man

by Orangeman94 on Jan 7, 2026 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Mitchell

I still believe he is the system’s #2. If he’s fully healthy he’s a lot better than a C+ in my opinion.

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 5, 2026 8:48 PM EST reply actions  

I definitely agree

Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!

The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!

by Dewey Finn on Jan 5, 2026 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree.

But as John has said, grades are as much about floor as ceiling, and Morel has a floor that is about an Empire State Building higher than Mitchell’s.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 9:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Well in last year’s top 10 when he was fully healthy, Mitchell’s grade was a B. So assuming this grade of C+ is based on him being fully healthy are we to assume that he drops down based on the year lost.

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 6, 2026 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

He's going to be 22 at High-A

probably. So yeah, I would say the lost year is a BIG factor. Especially since this isn’t a player who was polished and had a ton of experience. He’s still ok, but if he hits any bumps and has to repeat a level, he’s in big trouble. I would probably give him this whole year at High-A unless he absolutely rakes.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Is he for sure going into High-A? I know last year they were going to assign him to Double-A out of Spring Training. I think we just need to see where he’s out in the Spring.

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 6, 2026 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

In my opinion..

that would be a HUGE mistake to send him to AA. Not only would he be completely skipping a level, he only had 139 PA’s at Low-A. John stresses a loose rule of a year per level, but that’s just for normal prospects. Not for a guy who has never played a full season and doubled as a two sport athlete for the rest of his life. To be honest, I couldn’t really blame them if they sent him back to Low-A to start the season after how much he struggled in the AFL and how inexperienced he is.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I dont think AA would be that big of a stretch

he is a college world series MVP

i'm eager to see which of you is going to put his jacket down first so as to ensure the other’s dress doesn’t get wet. by craigws

by e-gus on Jan 6, 2026 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

He's pretty raw for AA.

He was the CWS MVP, yes… but he spent a lot of time playing football, too.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jan 6, 2026 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

What would you consider a comparable level to AFL?

Because he looked lost at the plate there. I know those prospects are from all different levels, so it would probably be hard to make a comparison. It’s also a small sample size. But if he goes to AA and flails at the plate like he did there, it has a good chance of being another lost year. They need to make sure that where ever this kid goes, he is able to play well. He needs to build some confidence. If he goes to High-A and lights it up, go ahead and promote him to AA at midseason. No harm in that.

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Again I think people are looking too deep into his AFL performance. I think we need to remember that was his first live baseball activity since the injury. He should be rusty with a little late reaction to the speed of the game. The only concern should be if he’s 100% healthy.

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 7, 2026 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the lack of explosiveness is the biggest issue

Could be that he was just reluctant to test the ankle. We’ll see what the reports are like this spring.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Jan 6, 2026 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I’ve heard he was told to not push it in the AFL. They needed him to try and get some baseball in before Spring Training in 2011.

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 6, 2026 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Hopefully that is the case

But until he shows he’s capable of being the player he was last February/March, I think it’s right to be conservative. I’m a pretty big Jared Mitchell fan, but it’s hard to just assume that the impact potential will come back. This is a rare injury he’s dealing with.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Jan 6, 2026 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t recall off the top of the head when he had the surgery, the recovery time and how long from surgery it was when he played in the AFL.

Thanks again!

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 6, 2026 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

The recovery time was unknown

He had surgery in mid-March, but it was an injury that no one had much (any?) experience with.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Jan 6, 2026 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Robin Ventura had this happen, but again he wasnt’ a speed guy

by mdotmorris22 on Jan 6, 2026 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

nothing to do with the grading

But what are your thoughts on Sale’s funky delivery? Any concerns?

Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!

The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!

by Dewey Finn on Jan 5, 2026 9:24 PM EST reply actions  

sure sale looked great, but in only 23.1 innings.

Sale is a b+ for me

by iam2asian4u on Jan 5, 2026 9:30 PM EST reply actions  

People are missing the point here

Yes, small sample size. That’s still enough time to make a very good impression. Quality that sticks that far out doesn’t worry about sample sizes when you see it in action. He’s just one of those guys you see pitch and say to yourself “this guys gonna be f#ckin’ good”. At least I did and I’m really shocked more here didn’t have a like mind - he’s one of the most under-rated prospects I’ve seen on this site since it started. He’s one of 6 pitchers given a straight up A by John, yet it was pulling teeth to get him on the community list before 20.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 3:55 AM EST up reply actions  

If you are just looking at the stat sheet...

I agree. But if you are looking at the stuff live, sample size is irrelevant.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 9:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Mr. Sickles

Happy Birthday.

by rwperu34 on Jan 5, 2026 9:52 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

royse reportedly had tommy john surgery.

not a big surprise considering his elbow issues while at great falls.

by larry on Jan 5, 2026 10:00 PM EST reply actions  

Have to say...

even ignoring the injury, I would have placed Royse much lower on this list, if at all.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 9:02 AM EST up reply actions  

royse

Frankly I forgot about the TJ….this is what 2 months of sleep deprivation will do to you. Thanks for pointing that out.

by John Sickels on Jan 6, 2026 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Flowers

The bigger they are, the harder they fall…

A little surprised to see a straight “C”.

I figured with the pure power and ability to draw walks he’d get the C+.

I suppose it’s not as bad as it could be, but he’s got a lot of Adam Dunn in him in what he brings to the table…just a poor man’s kind.

Maybe there’s more I don’t see…like he’s really that clueless. But I still think he could rebound to where he could be a useful piece.

by Domino427 on Jan 5, 2026 11:06 PM EST reply actions  

+1

I think C+ would be more appropriate.

by cookiedabookie on Jan 6, 2026 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Big question...

is can he stick behind the plate? That makes a big difference in how well his bat will play for his position vs. being a 1B/DH.

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I would put Mr. Mitchell at number two

putting him below the likes of Addison Reed under the assumption he gets healthy is strange. If he doesnt recover fully then thats unfortunate, but I would wait and see.

The only glove he needs is a batting glove. - RWShow on Adam Dunn signing.

by blackoutsox on Jan 6, 2026 12:34 AM EST reply actions  

Sale

I love Sale and he has a tremendous arm but another straight A for a guy that’s a POSSIBLE starter?! John your getting softer as you age lol!

by Jay212033 on Jan 6, 2026 2:31 AM EST reply actions  

Did you complain that Kimbrel's grade was too high as well?

He got a B+ and is strictly a reliever. Provided good health for all three, Kimbrel’s ceiling is in line with the floors for Chapman and Sale. The fact that both Chapman and Sale have TOR potential is more than enough reason for them to be two grade levels ahead of pure relievers. Either the grades for all three are a notch too high, or they’re all fine.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Jan 6, 2026 2:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I think they’re all fine, because a true relief ace is a pretty valuable property. It may be true that they don’t provide anywhere close to the win value of starters, but the best relievers are very expensive on the open market and developing a good one on your own saves the club a ton of money. I guess what I’m saying is that there is a lot of surplus monetary value if not win value to developing a relief ace.

by limozeen on Jan 6, 2026 4:13 AM EST up reply actions  

He actually got a B not a B+

His numbers were better than both Chapman and Sale with close to the same amount of innings pitched but yet they both got straight A’s because of they are POSSIBLE starters.

by Jay212033 on Jan 6, 2026 5:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Both are PROBABLE starters.

Both of them will be given every opportunity to be in the rotation - it’s where both of their respective teams envision/want them. What’s with all the people thinking they are more likely to be in the pen? Sure it’s possible, but it’s not the clear cut answer many seem to think it is. Even if these 2 go the pen so what… if Sale ends up there he’s gonna pick right up where Billy Wagner left off. That’s worth an A grade right there.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Two things.

1) Let’s not forget that Sale and Chapman are both lefthanded which immediately puts them ahead of a comparable righthander. Lefties are much harder to find, especially power lefties.

2) I would love to know what people think is the gap between Chapman and Sale? Chapman seems to get a lot more hype because of his velocity. But in my opinion, Sale should be mentioned in the same sentence as him. Sale, while his velocity is not quite as high, has much more advanced offspeed stuff and I would say a better chance of making it as a starter. I think the gap (if there even is one) is a lot smaller than people think.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 9:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Who cares if they are LH

The point is getting outs IF both Chapman and Sale end up in the BP that takes away from their value is all i’m saying. This is like saying who’s better Billy Wagner or Mariano Rivera.

by Jay212033 on Jan 6, 2026 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Really?

If a pitcher ends up in the bullpen and has a career in the form of a Wagner or Rivera - he’s a grade A prospect. Period.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah if its guaranteed

If they don’t make it as starters, its far from guaranteed that those guys will be that good in the pen and last for that long.

Hell, if you guaranteed me a guy would have a Derek Lowe career, I’d give him a straight A. You just can’t guarantee that pitchers have that high of floors.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

In my opinion...

to be a straight A as a reliever (with no chance of starting), a player would have to have two plus plus pitches and no red flags. Kimbrel looks to have some control problems which would be a pretty big red flag.

The fact is a good 200 inning starter is as valuable as a great 50-75 inning reliever. Therefore, the reliever would have to be less flawed to make up that value somehow. But again, this is just my opinion.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

And Chapman and Sale don't have control problems?!

When guys throw that hard with as much movement on their FBs it’s hard to have great command of that pitch.

by Jay212033 on Jan 6, 2026 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...

Sale has never had control problems before his relief stint professionally. Control was actually listed as one of his assets when he was drafted. Chapman on the other hand certainly does. But as I stated, these guys both have the potential to start. My point is, for a reliever to be equally valuable as a starter, he has to be otherworldly. So I think if you are a starter, you can get by with a small flag here and there. If you are a reliever, you can’t be walking a ton of guys and still be considered a top prospect.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Using Sale, Kimbrel and Chapman ML stats(SSS)

Kimbrel WAS otherworldly in his 20.2 IP. His control was cosiderably better after his second call up as well.

by Jay212033 on Jan 6, 2026 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

He walked 16 in 21 innings.

I would say that’s a control concern. Not to mention his control hasn’t been very good at any of his stops in the upper minors.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Kimbrel splits

He walked 10 hitters in 8.1 innings during his 1st call up. After he went down and came back up he walked 6 in 12.1 still high but much better after his recall.

by Jay212033 on Jan 6, 2026 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I would certainly still...

call that a red flag for control when taking into account his minor league track record.

Bottom line: The top pitcher last year according to WAR was Cliff Lee with a 7.1 according to FanGraphs. The top reliever in terms of WAR was Carlos Marmol with a 3.1. That’s a 4 point difference and would have put him behind 46 starting pitchers. So in terms of value, the BEST reliever in the game last year was equivalent to the 47th best starter in the game.

What I am saying is, because there is such a disparity in their worth, you better be 99.9% sure that that reliever is going to reach elite elite status to give him a top grade or he just isn’t worth as much. Now a starter on the other hand, he might not end up being the cream of the crop, but if he’s a top 30 starting pitcher, he’s still more valuable than even the BEST reliever. Not trying to be a jerk, just kind of trying to explain my position. Does that make sense?

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:22 AM EST up reply actions  

There are no gaurantees silly

The same logic holds true for ALL pitching prospects. We can’t guarantee anything - but we can formulate educated guesses as to how successful they are likely to be compared to other pitchers. Teheran, Moore and the rest of the pitching prospects aren’t guaranteed to not end up in the pen either. When determining this we usually look at stuff/number of pitches/history. Sale’s stuff is there. He has 2 very good pitches with a 3rd off-speed offering that looks like it will be effective at the major league level. He has historically been a starter for the bulk of his career and has no major injury woes in his past. If the only thing you can come up with to refute all of that is the inverted w boogieman… you don’t really have a leg to stand on here. We can also formulate that if Sale goes to the bullpen - he will be very, very good.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Good points...

there is a reason a lot of failed starters end up being excellent relievers and not the other way around. It’s easier to be a reliever and they are a dime a dozen. If a guy has the potential to be a great starter or an excellent reliever and you compare him with a guy who has the potential to be an excellent reliever… how would you not choose Guy A?

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

To quote you and what I was responding to
If a pitcher ends up in the bullpen and has a career in the form of a Wagner or Rivera – he’s a grade A prospect. Period.

Yeah, of course, retrospectively those guys have A grade value because of how well they turned out, but assigning them that much value coming into their career would have been questionable.

And I think you realize that the “inverted-W bogeyman” isn’t the only reason I wouldn’t give Sale as A. As I’ve mentioned, the fact that we haven’t seen him pitch professionally as a starter is just as important to me, if not more so. We don’t know how well the stuff will translate as a starter and how well he’ll carry it late into games. I think that’s a perfectly reasonable position to hold, even if you don’t agree with it.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The first part...

is exactly what I’m trying to say above.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Who cares about being LH?

Baseball execs, that’s who. The running joke is always that if you are lefthanded and have a pulse, you can get a major league contract. That’s because:

A: There are less lefthanded people on the earth than righthanded and therefore less of them in baseball.

B: It is much more rare to get a lefty with high velocity than a righty. There are tons of righthanders with mid to high 90’s stuff. Lefties with that kind of velocity don’t grow on trees.

Obviously the bottom line is getting outs, but the fact remains, if two pitchers are exactly the the same in all other ways besides what hand they throw the ball with, any right minded GM would take the lefty.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Poll...

Is it an asset as a pitcher to be lefthanded? I don’t know how you can say it isn’t. Teams clearly value lefthanded pitching more than righthanded pitching because it is more rare. Just like teams value a good shortstop more than a good first baseman. They are more rare.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Sale...has much more advanced offspeed stuff

Clearly you’ve never seen Chapman’s slider. I’ve seen both these guys, and there’s no way that Sale’s breaking ball comapres. Sale’s change-up is excellent and is clearly his best secondary pitch, but at best it’s a match for Chapman’s slider and certainly not “much more advanced”.

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

To be a starter...

you pretty much NEED three pitches and Chapman doesn’t have that. That gives me serious concerns about his ability to remain a starter. I’ve also heard his slider, while excellent sometimes, is very inconsistent, especially in terms of location.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Randy Johnson did just fine for years throwing 95% or more FB and SL

If any pitchers can get away with it, Chapman is the guy. LHP that throw that hard with a plus-plus slider (if his relief slider carries over to starting) are hard to hit even without the threat of a third pitch.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Johnson and Prior

came to my mind too - but exceptions should never be confused with the norm.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

First off...

you might want to check fangraphs before claiming these guys were two pitch pitchers. Randy threw his splitter 12-14% of the time his last three years. That’s no small number. Prior also mixed in a slider and change after his first year or two.

Also, that’s two guys, neither of which (besides Randy 2-3 years early in his career) had control problems. There’s not many like that.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

The vast majority of his

success in his career was as a 2 pitch pitcher. The third pitch was developed and utilized as those pitches deteriorated later in his career. He was a multiple Cy Young winner before we ever saw his splitter. Prior did mix in some other pitches, but he also demonstrated an ability to be successful with just his fastball/curve combo.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Johnson only started using the change as he lost velocity late in his career

In 2002, 96.8% of the pitches Johnson threw were fastballs or sliders.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough...

I suppose it can be done. But like I said, he’s going to need to figure out a way to get righties out without a change. He will also need to sharpen his command considerably. A hanging slider to a righty is like a BP fastball.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

neither had control problems.

Two or three years of control problems for The Unit? He didn’t have a WHIP below 1.300 until he was 29. One more reason that he’s very much the exception that defies easy comparison. Chapman could have better control and at an earlier age yet never have anywhere near that career. It’s tempting to match those two up based on similarities in build and arsenal, but it remains to be seen if Chapman has Johnson’s drive.

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 5:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly my point...

while Randy’s control improved drastically later in his career, you can’t assume that is a logical improvement plane for every pitcher.

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly your point?

Your remarks were made in the context of Johnson’s supposedly never having had control problems (outside of 2-3) years, when in fact Johnson had control problems for much longer than that. I’m getting this image of you twisted into a pretzel on the floor under your computer desk. lol

by blackoutyears on Jan 7, 2026 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Definitely not

However if I had to bet on one pitching prospect having success at the MLB level as a starter with just two pitches, Chapman would be that guy.

by nixa37 on Jan 6, 2026 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Now here

is something I’m in total agreement with you on.

by slurve on Jan 6, 2026 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I hear you...

If anyone can do it, it’s going to be someone with two plus plus pitches. He’s going to need to formulate a way to get out righthanded hitters without a change though.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

get out righthanded hitters

The slider is murder on RHHs. And the change is rated as average to slightly below btw. He simply doesn’t need to throw it out of the ’pen, but it got good reviews in Louisville.

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't heard...

really any good news about his changeup except that he was throwing it in the minors. In fact, I really hadn’t even heard that it had reached “show me” status yet. But I can’t confirm that or anything.

In terms of the slider, it better be absolutely devastating, because if that pitch is left over the plate, like I said, it’s like a BP fastball for righties. That’s why 99% of lefthanded pitchers flame out as starters if they can’t come up with a changeup.

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

it better be absolutely devastating

The only ‘better be" that’s important here is how you’d “better be” familiar with the pitches you’re discussing before making concrete claims about them. lol

Bottom line, Chapman throws an 89-mph slider with plus break for strikes. I’m not the only observer who considers it better than his FB, and it has a legit chance to be the best pitch in its category in the majors. Unless Sale can say the same of his change-up then the claim that his off-speed pitches are “much more advanced”, which is why we’re having this discussion after all, is absurd.

by blackoutyears on Jan 7, 2026 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget about A.J. Burnett

He’s gotten by on just a FB (about 65-70% of pitches) and a CB (25-30%). The CH he throws 5% of the time is a show-me pitch that is batting practice quality.

Brad Penny in his earlier days was another pitcher who was basically FB/CB, he’s developed the splitter now with Dave Duncan.

by two fishsticks on Jan 6, 2026 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

And yet...

it’s still good enough that he can throw it 5% of the time to keep hitters off balance. When you throw 100 pitches (or more) per start, that’s still 5-10 per game. If I’m not mistaken, AJ actually had a pretty solid change earlier in his career as he threw it almost 10% of the time some years.

Let’s also not forget that the vast majority of pitchers throw their fastball and best offspeed pitch the vast majority of the time. Guys with three plus pitches don’t grow on trees, so obviously they are going to want to try to hide that third pitch a bit and just mix it in when guys aren’t expecting it. There’s a difference betweem using a third pitch only occasionally and not having one at all.

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

3.1% and 3.5%

That’s how often Burnett’s used his CH the last two years. I’d bet on the scouting scale it would rate at a 30. When hitters make contact the ball it’s going to get stung. I saw plenty of his Marlins starts in person to know that he would basically use it
1. against the pitcher or punch and judy 8th hitter
2. against a hitter who never swings at the first pitch on a 0-0 count.

I don’t count that as actually having a legitimate pitch to throw if you’re that selective about when to use it.

by two fishsticks on Jan 8, 2026 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve also heard his slider, while excellent sometimes, is very inconsistent

Commenting on a player based on hearsay will yield those results. I saw almost every innign he pitched for the major league team this year and I can tell you, the slider is a plus pitch (plus-plus on multiple occasions) which was in no way inconsistent. 89-mph and cosnistently thrown for strikes. Unless you’ve seen both guys, then you should probably think twice before making rash claims.

by blackoutyears on Jan 6, 2026 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry...

I don’t get the minor league baseball channel and I don’t live in Cincy. But everything I read says while it has the potential to be a plus plus pitch, it is still a work in progress. I have NOT heard that he consistently thrown it for strikes, heck I have not even heard that he could consistently throw his fastball for strikes (especially as a starter). But again, that’s just what I’m reading.

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

just what I’m reading.

And yet you’re arguing as if these are hard facts.

by blackoutyears on Jan 7, 2026 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Things that jump out at me

1) Too many guys from last years draft on this list and too many HIGH on this list.

2) There appears to be some useful pitchers (at least more than I thought), but most seem to be ticketed for the pen. This is going to leave the starting rotation in trouble (especially with Danks and Floyd becoming more expensive).

3) There is a SERIOUS lack of plate discipline and wide spread K problems with the hitters. Kenny Williams clearly does not stress plate discipline when it comes to acquiring young talent.

4) I would have dropped someone from the list and added Miguel Gonzalez. I think he has a huge year at Low-A this year in his second go around. I think he will be top-10, maybe top-5, on this list next year.

by polodude017 on Jan 6, 2026 9:14 AM EST reply actions  

Tyler Flowers

Ouch, one of my bigger fails. i was pushing him in the top 40 last year. thomas Neal too, but even neal held up better than Flowers. Eh, win some lose some.

by wobatus on Jan 6, 2026 3:58 PM EST reply actions  

Anyone have anything to discuss on someone not named Chris Sale?

I know that’s what most of the non-Sox fans here would probably like to discuss, but this trash heap of a farm system is what my team has to work with for the future. Any thoughts on any of the other guys?

by polodude017 on Jan 7, 2026 9:33 AM EST reply actions  

escobar is pretty cool!

The shortstop defense will give him a chance, and his bat seems to be improving.

I also think Morel tends to be somewhat underappreciated. He won’t be a star, but hard to argue with a guy who doesn’t look like he’ll be a liability at the plate or in the field.

It’s not a very good system beyond those two and Sale (I’m cool on Jared Mitchell’s bat and the 2010 draft post-Sale was underwhelming), but I think those three have a chance to be quality contributors.

by mrkupe on Jan 7, 2026 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

+1 on both

Morel and Escobar seem to get overlooked.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Jan 7, 2026 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

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