Prospects in the Andrew Bailey Trade
Prospects in the Andrew Bailey Trade.
The Oakland Athletics continued their active off-season with another major trade this evening, sending closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney to the Boston Red Sox, in exchange for outfielder Josh Reddick, right-handed pitcher Raul Alcantara, and first baseman Miles Head.
Reddick is no longer a rookie and most fans should be familiar with him: he's young at age 24 (25 in February) and hit .280/.327/.457 in 254 at-bats for the Red Sox in 2011. The two prospects here are Alcantara and Head, so let's take a look.
Raul Alcantara, RHP: Alcantara is a 6-3, 180 pound right-handed pitcher, born December 4th, 1992 in Barahona, Dominican Republic. The Red Sox signed him as a free agent in 2009 and he made his North American debut in '11. He posted a 0.75 ERA with a 36/6 K/BB in 48 innings for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox, earning a promotion to Lowell in the New York-Penn League at the end of August. He was hit harder there, giving up 25 hits and 14 runs (6.23 ERA) in 17 innings over four starts, with a 14/6 K/BB, but he was young for the level at age 18.
Alcantara is a classic projection prospect. He already throws 90-95 MPH and should sustain his peak velocities more readily as he matures physically. His curveball and changeup are inconsistent, but they exist, which is more than a lot of pitchers his age can say. He throws strikes and keeps the ball down, collecting grounders at a decent clip and avoiding homers. He's only given up one homer in 126 professional innings. His strikeout rate is low for a guy with his kind of velocity at the lower levels, which indicates the need to improve his secondary stuff.
He's a Grade C+ prospect at this point and will need time to develop, at least three years from the majors.
Miles Head, 1B-3B: Head is a 6-0, 215 pound first baseman, a right-handed hitter and thrower, born May 2nd, 1991. He was drafted in the 26th round in 2009 from high school in Fayetteville, Georgia, but his draft position was deceptive. His signability was in question, and it took $335,000 to keep him away from college ball at the University of Georgia. He could have gone as high as the fourth round otherwise. Head split 2011 between Low-A Greenville (.338/.409/.612 in 66 games) and High-A Salem (.254/.328/.405 in 63 games), combining for 37 doubles, 22 homers, 50 walks, and 109 strikeouts.
Head features above-average power potential, but will have to prove that his swing and plate discipline will work against advanced pitching. He lacks the speed to play an outfield corner, and spent 2011 at first base. He has experience at third and may move back to the hot corner, where his arm will play well but his range may not.
Like Alcantara, Head is a Grade C+ type who has major league potential but still has things to prove. He could develop into a very productive slugger, but could also fizzle out as a Quadruple-A bat without a real position.
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Head
a lot like the typical Red Sox AAAA first basemen they develop. Bates, Anderson etc
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Agreed
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 29, 2011 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't every Red Sox 1B
destined for AAAA when you have Adrian Gonzalez?
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 29, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Yup
but this happened before they traded for him. Rizzo was the only 1B prospect of note for the past five years.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 29, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
You don't think 2008-09 Lars Anderson was 'of note'?
He was riding an outrageous wave of hype back then.
Not at all.
Anderson was an athlete who looked like a slugging 1B.
Head looks like he spends too much time on a couch. doesn’t look at all like an athlete, but has a quick bat. He may fizzle too but it would be for very different reasons.
by Rotofan on Dec 29, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Anderson
had one good year in AA. After that scouts started saying he had “doubles power”. How do you go from 30+ HR power to doubles power in less than a year?
His glove is soft and he GB% is way up. Not sold on him in the least. Oakland wouldn’t even take him for Rich Harden.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 29, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Harden deal fell through due to some more finite research into his medical records
Oakland would have been happy to take Lars Anderson at that time it seems (not to mention disburdening itself of the $500K or so Harden was in line to receive).
If your point is that Miles Head was likely more appealing to the A’s than Anderson as part of a package in terms of the Andrew Bailey deal, I do agree though.
No
Yup, the deal fell through. But remember that Oakland also would not make the move unless they got a PTBNL? The deal fell through anyways so it did not matter, but they wanted more in the deal before the medical reports were seen by Boston.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 29, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
the trade WAS announced as Anderson + PTBNL
Oakland got what they wanted, the trade was nixed on the Boston side of things.
Yes
But Oakland would not take just Anderson and had demanded the PTBNL- that’s all I said
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 29, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
After that scouts started saying he had "doubles power"
Never heard anyone say this. He still shows plus raw power in batting practice all the time.
He’s also pretty athletic for a guy that size.
Lastly, Oakland DID in fact agree to trade him for Harden. The Sox nixed the deal after seeing Harden’s medicals.
No, Oakland insisted on Anderson plus a PTBNL (rumored to be Alcantara)
When the Sox looked at Harden’s medicals they found to their astonishment that he was not completely healthy and asked Oakland to take just Anderson and get the PTBNL if Harden met certain performance milestones. Oakland refused and the deal fell apart at that point.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 29, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yes.
Boston didn’t like his medical so they wanted to alter the already agreed deal. When Oakland refused Boston backed out.
Yup, that's what happened
and I remembered the rumor to be Brandon Workman as the player going over to Oakland because he had to be listed as a PTBNL as he had not been drafted since a full year.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 29, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure you understand my point: Head is not much like Anderson as a prospect
So comparing the two isn’t terribly enlightening.
And you are incorrect about the Harden deal, which fell apart because the Red Sox didn’t want damaged goods.
That would be
An improvement for the A’s from what they’ve been putting out there
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Dec 29, 2011 3:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
John
Realistically, is there even an average chance for A’s fans to hope that Head can stick at 3B?
The monster at the end of this blog.
it seems like a less than 50/50 thing to me.
by John Sickels on Dec 28, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
3B
Head hasn’t played a game at 3B since 2009, when he played 9 games there. Why Olney referred to him as a 3B prospect, I have no idea. He’s exclusively been a 1B prospect.
There are real question whether he can play 1B; so 3B would seem out-of-the-question
He received poor reviews for his 1B defense as he has little range and struggles to pick low throws. He’s basically a non-athlete who can nonetheless get the barrel on the ball with a quick, slightly uppercut swing.
I like
Alcantara. Fairly interesting guy. Decent, but not great haul for the A’s. Could have done better, but added to the Cahill and Gio moves it looks solid
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 28, 2011 10:46 PM EST reply actions
I think it's pretty weak
When the best thing that can be said about the key player in the return seems to be that he’s ‘controllable’, it’s tough for me to be that optimistic.
I think Boston paid a practical pittance for 3 years of a relatively cost effective, knockout short reliever who will be more affordable than Jon Papelbon (or Ryan Madson/Francisco Cordero probably). Barring health (no small concern considering Andrew Bailey threw about half of his career IP during his rookie year), this is a clear & resounding win for Boston in my estimation.
disappointing haul
for Bailey.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 28, 2011 11:46 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, couldn’t they have found a better prospect? This guy has been a major league closer now for several seasons.
I think it's a pretty comparable deal to the one that landed Marshall
and considering that Marshall > Bailey, though Bailey has two more years of control, I think they made out all right.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have the Marshall deal
By quite a wide margin, personally.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 29, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah?
I dunno. I think Reddick and Wood are pretty comparable. Reddick’s floor is probably as a good 4th OF, his ceiling as an above average corner OF. Wood’s floor is probably as a fringe 5th starter, his ceiling as a solid mid-rotation innings eater.
Alcantara is young and all projection. Torreyes is the same age and probably has the same boom-bust quotient.
Head and Sappelt seem pretty similar, as I think both end up as AAAA/bench guys. I suppose if you are really high on Sappelt, this is where the deal tilts in favor of the Cubs. Personally, I think he’s an average CF for a few years at best, but more likely a decent 4th OF.
The Sox also got Sweeney in the deal, which doesn’t really change much in my estimation. He doesn’t provide much surplus value as a 2nd arb 4th OF.
So yeah, I think they are pretty similar.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
But the A's would not have got Reddick without giving up Sweeney
So you can’t use that in your evaluation. Bailey for Alcantara and Head, and probably one other C+/B- type in place of Reddick had they kept Sweeney or Baily for Reddick and one of Alcantara or Head is probably more likely. At that point, neither one of those trades compete with the Marshall deal.
Although, I would say that even with the trade as is, I would take the Marshall deal. Sappelt is ahead of Head for me, as he has a much higher realistic value at this point as a 4th outfielder/platoon guy. Torreyes is way ahead of Alcantara for me. Wood and Reddick are pretty close. And the A’s still had to give up Sweeney, who still has value, at a sell low point.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 29, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think it makes sense that what the Cubs got is overall a bit better than what the A's got
since Marshall > Bailey. My overall point is that both deals seem like fair value all around.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
dude
quit acting like reddick and sweeney have the same value and cancel each other out of the deal. you’re completely high. reddick has more years of control and is a better player because he, for example, has any power at all. he was the centerpiece of the deal. it was not two trades, one with reddick for sweeney and then another with bailey for head and alcantara. that is not what happened
reining self in
actually you’re not saying exactly that. misread it / skimmed it too fast. thought i’d seen you say that last night.
so i guess i take that post back
No prob
Been guilty of doing the same before.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 29, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
agreed on sweeney
physically he looks like the prototypical mlb player, 6’4" athletic, but stubborn plate approach. his defense regressed due to knee injuries. freakin cliff pennington and eric sogard could fluke into a hr, not sweeney. he seemed content with being an mlb player not much else. the sweeney i saw in 2007 was the same sweeney in 2011
$$$
Bailey was scheduled to make somwhere in the neighborhood of $3.5M through arbitration. That may be the biggest point of the trade for the A’s. Other than that, the Sux got a bargain. There is no huge gamble with the players they gave up, and though Bailey has some elbow issues, he is likely a good pick up for them as insurance against the other offseason acquistions, like Melancon.
Reddick
may still develop some… he is just 25 and may recover from the miserable August/September he had last year and learn to take a walk.
Agreed
September wasn’t terrible, but August was certainly miserable. It will be interesting to see how he readjusts. His walk rate was WAY up in the minors this past year (14% BB, 7.8% for his career) so it is possible he changed his approach some. Even without improving much, he’s a decent player thanks to his defense and his power, and should have no trouble covering lots of ground in the Coliseum.
Also can't forget his defense
Which is still a big asset in his new cavern/ballpark.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Big Problem
for Boston will be having Bailey live up to expectations while pitching in that shoebox stadium, where even gnomes like Pedroia appear to be HOF hitters.
Dustin Pedroia
A product of his environment if ever I saw one. Oh wait, that’s completely bonkos.
Well
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=pedrodu01&year=Career&t=b
Looking at Pedroia’s career splits which are very close to even on PAs – you can see that he does get a jolt in 2Bs due to Fenway which affects his slugging, but he’s not exactly a terrible road hitter
When you're as financially hamstrung as the A's are, getting rid of the contract is more important....
…than who/what you get in return.
Bailey’s a dimestore closer coming off an elbow injury, the fact Beane got three players is a credit to him.
Beane didn’t trade three players, he traded three contracts, and got ten players in return.
Merry Christmas to him.
If the A's can't afford half a year of $3 million for Bailey
To wait for a better deal, than they might as well close up shop.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 29, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
what if Bailey suffers another injury and the A's are paying $3M to a player whose value is compromised?
I’m not sure they were going to get a better offer if what they were looking for was a close-to-the-majors starting caliber position player.
by mrkupe on Dec 29, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
"To wait for a better deal, than they might as well close up shop."
Careful what you wish for, Cookie..if the San Jose deal falls through, that’s exactly what will happen.
MLB will take over the A’s like they did the Expos and sell the team off for pennies on the dollar and they’ll end up in Vancouver or some such place.
It would be pretty interesting to see what happens if SJ doesn't happen.
My prediction would be New York.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 29, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
That's the first I've ever seen anyone mention NY...
But if baseball were a true free market, there’d be 5-6 teams in NY…
San Antonio?
That would be interesting. California has five teams, why can’t Texas have three?
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 30, 2011 9:11 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think Portland, OR is on deck.
Not that they’re the best site available (though they are a bigger market than some existing MLB markets), but they seem the most desperate and probably will pony up the most.
Live in PDX
It’s so difficult to imagine MLB moving here. The Triple-A team left and even when they were here there was so little support. I’m not sure where you can get that anybody’s desperate here for MLB…

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