Let’s face it, trying to predict the June draft is like trying to predict the stock market, even with inside sources the average success rate isn’t very good. The reasons are simple, one, teams aren’t going to share information publicly and two, even if they do it’s not always truthful.

There’s another reason which is usually overlooked; sometimes, they just don’t know themselves.

When Bryce Harper is at the top of the draft the choice is easy, at least for the team picking first. Usually teams will lock into a player at the top of the draft and for the most part will stick with him. In Harper’s draft year of 2010 Pittsburgh selected Jameson Taillon second overall and Baltimore chose Manny Machado. After the draft both teams said if they had the first pick they would have chosen the same guy.

Fast forward to 2016 when the Phillies chose Mickey Moniak with the first pick, they didn’t decide on him until 90 minutes before the draft. The decision wasn’t based on the closeness in ability like with 2010, Moniak wasn’t in the top five on their board. They chose him because he agreed to a lower than slot deal, willingly sacrificing money for the prestige of going first overall.

Starting in 2014 the drafts have been pretty shallow. Drafts are cyclical and it’s not unprecedented to have a streak of not so good returns followed by a streak of studs.

This year’s draft is considered deeper than the past three in terms of potential major league return but lacking in star power. There’s no Nick Senzel in this draft, no Alex Bregman or Aaron Nola. Some scouts and player development staff believe they have just as much chance to get a return on their investment from their sixth or seventh rounder as with their first or second, a thought process which doesn’t happen often.

Below are just a few of the comments from insiders I’ve seen which helps paint an unflattering picture:

From Jason Woodell’s Twitter (Prospect1500) (@JasonAtTheGame);

"Overheard a scout last night, I’ve seen the top 10 amateur arms in the draft and none of them are close to Sixto Sanchez." So after the draft, when you see the "experts" rank Mize and Libertore in top 25, keep that in mind."

A scouting director quoted by Baseball America on University of South Florida's Shane McClanahan:

"No way we take him in the first round, if he pitched for Florida he wouldn’t even be a weekend starter. He should go in the comp rounds because he’s expensive and has eligibility left. Plus, his stuff plays up in the bullpen."

More from Baseball America’s lead in on their recently published mock draft:

"There’s one player that will be first on all 30 draft boards," said one scouting director. "And the second player will be totally different on all 30 boards."

"There is no clear No. 2 player in this class right now, and the second player on one preference list may be 10th on someone else’s board. That kind of uncertainty will likely lead to plenty of deal-making. As one agent put it, the top 10 will be filled with players making below-slot deals, finding the best landing spot they can in a draft where teams may not be completely sold on anyone."

The two quotes above are defining the process for me, especially the agent quote about the below slot deals as I’ve come across similar sentiments.

I think Casey Mize is the best bet to go number one overall…today. Would getting lit up in the tournament change things, or at least narrow the game enough to consider another choice?

There are questions regarding Alec Bohm’s makeup but he’s not dropping which leads to the belief teams think there is no one else in the draft with his profile that it’s worth the risk.

It’s getting stranger by the day.