BOSTON - This is probably the easiest part of the draft to plan for, mainly because there is so much more information about the first 30+ guys likely to be taken. There are enough mock drafts and articles about first round selections that I can get a decent idea of what I’m dealing with and who would be hard to sign if they fell to 26th. There is also a lot of information about guys in the Top 50+, so I feel like I can develop a number of contingencies that match what the Red Sox would do in reality. Here we go, broken into a number of tiers.

Really Unlikely

LHP Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss) - I should probably put Gilbert here since the Red Sox seem to have plenty of LHP (fielding a rotation of four hasn’t hurt them this year) and I have a slight preference for Gilbert because his fastball has a better grade. Rolison does have one of the best curveballs in this draft, and I went after Blayne Enlow last year for the same reason (though his fastball was also graded at 60) so I would love to take him. That being said, I’m pretty sure he’s gone in the top half of the first round. Only ESPN has him outside of the Top 15 (32), which means I shouldn’t hold my breath.

RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson) - Gilbert seems to have all the pieces to be a good starting pitcher, I’m not concerned about his dip in velocity (that apparently went away during the spring) because he didn’t suffer a drop in performance. Sounds like there is some room for growth here, but like Rolison he’s solidly in the Top-15 to 20 everywhere but one where he’s #26. Not holding my breath here either.

Really Unlikely / Not Realistic

SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA) - I’m seeing a lot of digital ink spilled over Turang, and everyone seems to say the same thing about him. Former potential #1 overall selection who has been dinged by scouting fatigue, loses points for not being completely dominant every time scouts see him… but he’s still a premier talent. This sounds like someone projected to be available around #26 that will actually be gone in the Top-15 if not Top-10. I’ve also got some bonus issues with him since he’s committed to LSU. I’ll have to back up the Brinks truck to sign him, and in reality I’m not sure someone who’s been told he could have gone #1 overall is going to be excited about being selected 26th. Teams in the Top 10 have a slot bonus nearly as large as my entire pool, so he would probably do better playing at LSU and take a shot at more money later. He’s also a prep bat, which is not what the Red Sox are likely to take. I think if he’s available at #26, I should probably pass in the spirit of this draft.

OF Connor Scott (Plant HS, CA) - Another player out of my reach but he pops up as a potential selection by Boston. I would love this guy, but when I see his five-tool upside and 70-grade speed I file him away in my Hiura Zone. I would have to wreck my cap and go after all college players in the next three rounds, but this tier is more about him probably not falling to me and being a stretch seeing how the Red Sox don’t draft a lot of prep bats in the first round.

Likely

RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX) - I locked in on him early, and I think he’s my most likely selection. Solid fastball topping out around 97-98, 65-grade pitch, and he’s got three more decent / average pitches with a slider, curve, and change. More importantly down at #26, he’s got a weak commitment to Texas A&M so I don’t think I would need to empty my bonus pool to sign him. Add in his size (6’-5" 230) and he seems to check all the boxes.

RHP Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA) - I feel like I can just copy and paste what I said about Rodriguez here, but Wilcox seems to be ranked a little higher. Add in that there are two other prep pitchers from Georgia (Kumar Rocker & Ethan Hankins) roughly ranked in the same area, but with Wilcox coming out ahead, and he should be above Rodriguez. The reason he isn’t is a firmer commitment to Georgia, so in this exercise I think it would be harder to sign Wilcox.

SS Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State) - Everything I read about this guy screams "Draft Me!" His father was drafted by the Red Sox, and he’s being compared to Jake Burger (his teammate last year) who was taken 11th overall. He made some swing changes and really hurt his production, but I don’t see why those changes can’t be reversed. He’s a SS that probably needs to move to 2B or 3B, and he’s a "grinder" so I think he’s the kind of guy you just want to have in your system.

RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL) - There are some red flags here, but there are also some things to like. He’s a two-way player, and also plays football (kicker, so… not that big of a boost) so he’s definitely a good athlete and has that aura of improvement if he focuses on one aspect of the game. Most reports point to that one aspect being pitching since he checks a bunch of boxes (60-grade fastball, can hit high-90’s, good mix of secondary pitches, 6’-3"), but then the red flags come in. He catches when he isn’t pitching, which means his arm has been logging a lot of work, and he was shut down this spring with biceps tendinitis (which might push him down some draft boards), and he’s old (19). He’s committed to Florida, so I’ll probably have to go over slot to sign him, but the risk might be worth the reward if he gets passed over and makes it to #26.

Likely / Not Realistic

2B/SS Xavier Edwards (North Broward Prep HS, FL) - In a vacuum he could be exactly what I’m looking for. His speed is graded at 70-80 and a number of things I’ve read have him pegged as a future 2B… which is exactly what I’d like. The problem is that the real Red Sox probably don’t make this selection, taking a prep bat in the 1st round is not something they do often. The Red Sox have taken three prep bats in the 1st round (2014, 2011, 2009*) in the past decade, so he’s probably out based on the spirit of this draft.

*Ironically enough, two of them (Swihart and Chavis) were taken with the 26th selection.

1B Tristan Casas (American Heritage HS, FL) - I’m looking for a 1B, and his power has been graded at 70-80 so I would love to pick up someone with an elite tool at #26. Same problem as Edwards though, taking him isn’t the most faithful selection.

Potential Reach

RHP Sean Hjelle (Kentucky) - I should have Hjelle behind Larnach, but most lists have him above Larnach. He’s tall as hjelle, 6’-11", and I know extra tall pitchers usually have issues with repeating their delivery. That being said, he throws strikes and has a solid mix of pitches highlighted by a knuckle-curve that is a 60-grade pitch. He might be a reach based on rankings, but based on his performance at his height he might be a safer selection. If he can consistently add some velocity to his fastball, the plane/angle he pitches on could make him pretty good.

OF Trevor Larnarch (Oregon State) - Probably the widest spread of rankings I’ve seen, with one list putting at at #13 and another #78. The consensus seems to be he’ll be available at #26, and he’s a rising prospect so he could be a solid snag for me. I feel a little like I would be reaching, especially if anyone listed above him is available.