The 2018 MLB free agent draft is coming into focus and all signs point to the Padres taking a high school pitcher with their first pick, the seventh overall. This is not the direction I would go -- last year I took McKay over Gore -- but the evidence this year seems clear.
Here are a few of the dozens of current projections percolating about the internet:
Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel, Fangraphs, 5/15 -- Ryan Weathers, LHP. Tennessee HS. Fangraphs has the Padres taking Weathers above Carter Stewart and Matthew Liberatore, the other two most highly touted HS pitchers.
Andrew Lawrence, Sporting News, 5/24 -- Ethan Hankins, RHP, Georgia HS. Sporting News has Carter Stewart going No. 5 and Liberatore going No. 9. Strangely, Fangraphs has Hankins going 42nd -- apparently there are some health concerns for the 6'6" righty who,without a doubt, can bring the heat when he's healthy.
Jim Callis, MLB.com, 5/26 - Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Arizona HS. Liberatore, a 6'6" southpaw, presents as a potentional No. 1 overall pick, but concerns about stamina, velocity and upside that hold him from that lofty status. Callis has Liberatore being the first HS pitcher taken, with Grayson Rodriguez, Cole Winn and Carter Stewart also going in the top 15.
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com, 5/17 - Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Arizona HS. For Mayo, Liberatore begins a run of HS pitchers, with Stewart (No. 8), Winn (10), Weathers (11) coming right off the board.
Various, Perfect Game, 4/20 - Carter Stewart, RHP, Florida HS. PG has Hankins (No. 5) and Liberatore (6) going ahead of Stewart at 7, with three other HS pitchers going in the Top 20.
Joel Reuter, Bleacher Report, 5/23 - Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Arizona HS. Reuter has Stewart (10) and Winn (11) going in the Top 15.
Dan Zielinski, III, Third Man In, 5/25 - Carter Stewart, RHP, Florida HS. DZ has the Padres taking Stewart over Liberatore (No. 8), Hankins (13) and Winn (15).
Christiana Caruso, MLB Daily Dish, 5/18 - Another vote for Liberatore, behind Stewart (No. 6) and ahead of Winn (13) and Weathers (17).
Lots of HS pitchers going No. 7 with Liberatore being the slight favorite.
I thought I'd also look a the last 10 No 7 overall picks to see how they have turned out. They are:
- 2008 - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds, Miami FL. 855 MLB games played, career .266 hitter.
- 2009 - Mike Minor, LHP, Braves, Vanderbilt. 186 MLB games, career 4.05 ERA.
- 2010 - Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets, North Carolina. 112 MLB games, career 3.44 ERA
- 2011 - Archie Bradley, RHP, D'backs, OK HS. 121 MLB games, career 3.76 ERA.
- 2012 - Max Fried, LPH, Braves, Stanford. 13 MLB games, career 5.77 ERA.
- 2013 - Trey Ball, LHP, Red Sox, IN HS. Currently in Double A.
- 2014 - Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies, LSU. 71 MLB games, career 3.22 ERA.
- 2015 - Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox, Arkansas. 233 MLB games, .276 career hitter.
- 2016 - Braxton Garrett, LHP, Marlins, AL HS. 4 MiLB games, Tommy John.
- 2017 - Pavin Smith, 1B, D'backs, Virginia. Currently hitting .216 in Cal. League.