BOSTON - It’s that time of year again, the MLB Draft is just around the corner and it’s time to build for the future. The Red Sox seem to be in an unpleasant position when it come to the minors, their system was depleted by graduations and trades a few years ago and their best remaining prospect (Jay Groome) has tumbled down rankings. The system is experiencing a low point, and the MLB team has done well enough to stick them with picks in the mid-20’s two years in a row. Best case, there is a Michael Kopech out there waiting to be taken at 26.
Past Drafts
Just like last year, I’m going to be leaning on Cookiedabookie’s breakdown of draft trends. The general pattern seems to be 1st round HS pitcher, 2nd round it’s a coin flip for college pitcher / hitter / HS pitcher, 3rd round college bat, then a coin flip between 4th round HS pitcher or college hitter. I think if I’m targeting a high-upside prep arm at pick 26 I’m not going to be able to select any more prep players later on.
Boston took (4) pitchers, all RHP, within their first six picks in 2017 and all but one was from college. They broke the mold a little in terms of the tendencies set forth by Cookie’s analysis by taking a HS bat in the 2nd round (Cole Brannen), a selection that scores at the least likely among all combinations across the first four rounds. They also took a 2B (Brett Netzer), which is still one of my higher priority positions and also scored as the second lowest likely position to be selected. At this point I can’t tell if I’m going to go against the grain quite so much, but I have a feeling I’m going to revert back to past tendencies. I will also have to admit that the actual Red Sox may be shifting their approach since Mike Rickard took over as Scouting Director in 2015, Cookie’s analysis runs from 2012-2016, and 2017 might be an indication they are willing to make picks they wouldn’t normally (like Brannen, who’s HS bat / OF profile scores as the least likely draft selection).
The one thing I would like to do this year is add a fast-moving bullpen arm if the right player falls to me in the later rounds. The Red Sox bullpen is about to be full of guys 30 and older, so I’m hoping to find someone that can move into the pen as quickly as possible. I know it’s a boring direction to take, but if I see the right high-upside RP selection I don’t think I’ll be able to pass it up.
Current Needs
The Red Sox farm system is lacking in high impact prospects so it’s probably more important to select a great player no matter their position or prep / college status. If anything, there seems to be quite a few pitchers closer to the top of their system ranks, but you can never have enough arms and pitchers are volatile so I can’t rule out taking pitcher. I really doubt I will take pitchers with more than two selections, but I can’t let that control my selections if the draft doesn’t go the way I’d like it to.
Priority List :
RHP/LHP - Not too focused on which, if anything I’m leaning toward RHP since the Red Sox sport a number of LHP starters (Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Groome). This is literally untouched from 2017, Houck seems like he was a fast-moving RP selection and I would like to shoot for more upside. The decline of Groome in the rankings has me hoping for a new organization #1 with my first round selection.
1B - Still not convinced by Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey, they seem to have improved their stock and Travis is in Triple-A so he could conceivably graduate after this year.
2B - Again, dark horse contender for the 1st round if the right 2B/SS falls to me. I’ve poured through the organization, and I don’t see a single 2B (or player only listed as 2B) that makes me feel like there is depth here. Brett Netzer is the highest ranked, and per MLB.com his comps are Adam Kennedy and Tommy La Stella. I’d like to aim higher.
OF - Betts-Benintend-Bradley Jr., I think this is still covered at the major league level. Swiharts move to the OF strengthened this position on the major league level, and drafting Cole Brannen in the 2nd round last year added more depth / upside. I’ll be looking out for another Brannen this year, already have my sights on someone.
3B - See Devers, Rafael. Organizational log jam has cleared, but now this position might be a decent point of strength. Good players (Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec) are filling the hot corner in Double-A and High-A, so unless the right player slides in the draft I’m probably not actively looking to draft a 3B.
SS - See Bogaerts, Xander. I think SS is going to be locked down for a long time, but organizational depth at the position isn’t very exciting. Organizational Top 30 guys (Tzu-Wei Lin, Chad De La Guerra, C.J. Chatham) could use some competition, but mostly I would be looking for a SS that could be moved to 2B.
C - I’m just going to pretend that Christian Vasquez is going to be behind the plate for the next ten years. I don’t want anything to do with a catcher in this draft, especially at 26th.
Bonus Pool
Just like last year I don’t have a tremendous amount of money to work with, picking 26th doesn’t leave you with much to spend. Based on Cookie’s draft tendency breakdown, which I would like to adhere to again, I’m looking at the possibility of a prep player in the 1st that I can go over slot for and then make up for it with college players later on.
Bonus Pool : $4,540,700
1 (26) : $2,552,800
2 (64) : $1,010,500
3 (100) : $559,600
4 (130) : $417,800
