Per reader request, we are going to spend some time over the next couple of weeks reviewing players who have graduated off the prospect lists in 2016 and see where they stand going forward. We'll call it the "What Happens Next" series. I don't want to spend a huge amount of time on obvious successes like Corey Seager, but will focus instead on some of the more obscure players. We hit Tommy Joseph, Andrew Toles, and Robert Gsellman earlier this week. Here's another National Leaguer to look at: Cincinnati Reds outfielder Scott Schebler.
Through Thursday night Schebler has hit .269/.332/.439 for the Reds with nine homers, 19 walks, and 59 strikeouts in 80 games, 253 at-bats, splitting the season between Cincinnati and Triple-A Louisville. We last looked at Schebler back in April, at the time concluding
Looking at all the numbers, but adding in my personal observations of Schebler over the years and his scouting reports of broad tools and some ability to adjust at the plate, my guess is that his true level of ability over the long haul is on the order of .260/.340/.450. Add in double-digit steals and the ability to handle all three outfield positions and you have a fine player.
Between this years and last fall's debut for the Dodgers, Schebler is now hitting .266/.331/.446 in 289 major league at-bats. That's extremely close to my pre-season estimate of .260/.340/.450. He hasn't shown the ability to steal bases in the majors, but otherwise he's lived up to expectations.
At age 25, Schebler is entering his prime seasons and his skills may not improve much beyond what they currently are. Combine the hitting with his defense and you come up with 1.1 fWAR in 317 plate appearances, which would make him about a 2.1 fWAR over a full season. He's not a star but he's a viable role player. If the strike zone doesn't get away from him, he could have a couple of very nice seasons (say .280/.350/.475) in his late 20s.