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MLB Team Draft Analysis, 2011-2015

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For the third year in a row, I give you way too much data about how teams have drafted in the past five years.

Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Hey everyone, draft season is upon us! We are in the final month before the draft, so it's almost prospect nerd Christmas in June.

For the past three years, I've put together a massive spreadsheet outlining the results of all 30 MLB teams in the first four rounds over the past five years. I have decided to update the spreadsheet this year. It is split into three graphs below.

I want to be clear, this just shows how each team has tended to draft over a five year period in the first four rounds. I would focus more on the total population data for each team to identify specific trends, especially as they compare to league averages. This year, I've decided to share the information in Z-score form, rather than percentage form. I think this better illustrates how teams specifically differ from the league as a whole. Looking at these total populations, which range from 16 to 32 picks, you can make some assumptions:

Anything in the z-score range of -0.50 to 0.50, is pretty much a coin toss. Anything between -0.50 and -1.25 means a team is less likely than most other teams to make that type of pick, while something between 0.50 and 1.25 means a team is more likely to make that type of pick. And anything in either the -1.25 to -2.00 or 1.25 to 2.00 ranges is a stronger pattern. Anything over 2.00 or under -2.00 means there is a very strong pattern in how that team drafts. Here's a table for easy reading -

Z Score Meaning
-0.50 to 0.50 Coin toss
-0.51 to -1.25 Less likely than most
0.51 to 1.25 More likely than most
-1.26 to -2.00 Very unlikely
1.26 to 2.00 Very likely
-2.01 or lower Extremely unlikely
2.01 or higher Extremely likely

For example, the Los Angeles Angels are almost two full standard deviations above the rest of the league in picking college players, while the Blue Jays are on the opposite end of the spectrum at just over two deviations above the league in picking high school talent.

Anyway, all that and so much more is available in the tables below. The most valuable data is in Table 1 (especially the first six columns), and Table 2. Table 3 is a more in-depth breakdown of each rounds pick mix - some may find it useful, or at least interesting. Others not so much. Table 4 shows MLB averages, which is valuable if you want to see how your team stacks up to the league as a whole in certain draft tendencies.

And a disclaimer: this was all done by hand, so there may be small errors. If you notice any, please let me know and I will edit. Thanks!

With all that said, here is EVERYTHING you wanted to know about how your team drafts, but were too afraid to ask:

Table 1: Level of drafted players Z-scores (2011-2015)
Team Total picks HS Z-score College Z-score Bats Z-score Arms Z-score R1 HS Z-score R1 College Z-score R2 HS Z-score R2 College Z-score R3 HS Z-score R3 College Z-score R3 HS Z-score R3 College Z-score
Arizona 25 .18 -.18 -.45 .45 -.78 .78 .62 -.62 .04 -.04 .34 -.34
Atlanta 23 .48 -.48 -.92 .92 1.10 -1.10 -.71 .71 .86 -.86 .34 -.34
Baltimore 20 .33 -.33 -.36 .36 .83 -.83 -.13 .13 .04 -.04 .34 -.34
Boston 25 -.40 .40 -.07 .07 -.34 .34 -.13 .13 .04 -.04 -.68 .68
Chicago (N) 22 -.66 .66 .12 -.12 -1.28 1.28 -.48 .48 .04 -.04 .34 -.34
Chicago (A) 19 -1.78 1.78 -1.13 1.13 -1.02 1.02 -.13 .13 -1.60 1.60 -1.70 1.70
Cincinnati 25 -.11 .11 -.07 .07 -.40 .40 .45 -.45 -.78 .78 .34 -.34
Colorado 26 .33 -.33 .12 -.12 .46 -.46 1.03 -1.03 -.78 .78 -.68 .68
Cleveland 22 .99 -.99 -.31 .31 .60 -.60 1.61 -1.61 .04 -.04 .34 -.34
Detroit 20 -1.85 1.85 -.83 .83 -.65 .65 -1.17 1.17 -.78 .78 -1.70 1.70
Houston 24 -1.19 1.19 .12 -.12 .22 -.22 -1.17 1.17 -1.60 1.60 -.68 .68
Kansas City 24 .93 -.93 -1.47 1.47 .22 -.22 -.48 .48 .86 -.86 2.39 -2.39
Los Angeles (A) 16 -1.94 1.94 -1.67 1.67 -2.86 2.86 1.61 -1.61 -1.60 1.60 -1.70 1.70
Los Angeles (N) 23 -.78 .78 -.50 .50 -.49 .49 -.13 .13 -1.60 1.60 .34 -.34
Miami 24 1.23 -1.23 .92 -.92 1.10 -1.10 -1.17 1.17 1.33 -1.33 2.39 -2.39
Milwaukee 25 .47 -.47 -.45 .45 -.40 .40 1.03 -1.03 .04 -.04 .34 -.34
Minnesota 25 -.69 .69 -1.60 1.60 .83 -.83 -1.87 1.87 -.78 .78 .34 -.34
New York (N) 22 .66 -.66 .99 -.99 .83 -.83 .22 -.22 1.13 -1.13 -.68 .68
New York (A) 23 .17 -.17 .33 -.33 -.49 .49 -.71 .71 1.68 -1.68 .34 -.34
Oakland 22 -.66 .66 1.42 -1.42 .30 -.30 -1.87 1.87 .86 -.86 -.68 .68
Philadelphia 24 .63 -.63 2.11 -2.11 1.76 -1.76 -.38 .38 1.13 -1.13 -.68 .68
Pittsburgh 25 -.11 .11 1.46 -1.46 -.40 .40 1.03 -1.03 -.78 .78 -.68 .68
St. Louis 29 -.05 .05 .61 -.61 -.55 .55 1.03 -1.03 -.24 .24 -.68 .68
San Diego 28 .07 -.07 .80 -.80 .16 -.16 .62 -.62 -1.60 1.60 .34 -.34
San Francisco 22 -1.65 1.65 .12 -.12 -1.28 1.28 -1.17 1.17 -.78 .78 -.68 .68
Seattle 22 -.33 .33 .99 -.99 -1.48 1.48 -.13 .13 .74 -.74 -.68 .68
Tampa Bay 32 1.01 -1.01 1.31 -1.31 .09 -.09 .62 -.62 .86 -.86 1.36 -1.36
Texas 25 1.05 -1.05 -.07 .07 .83 -.83 1.03 -1.03 .04 -.04 .34 -.34
Toronto 30 2.26 -2.26 -2.10 2.10 1.10 -1.10 1.61 -1.61 1.68 -1.68 1.36 -1.36
Washington 20 -1.13 1.13 -.36 .36 -1.76 1.76 -1.17 1.17 .04 -.04 .34 -.34

Table 2: Position of drafted players Z-scores (2011-2015)
Team % Prep Bats % College Bats % C % 1B % 2B % 3B % SS % OF % Prep Arms % College Arms % LHP % RHP
Arizona 1.52 -1.52 -.68 .26 -.95 -1.61 1.85 .62 -.97 .97 -.52 .52
Atlanta .71 -.71 2.12 -.99 -.95 1.71 -1.47 -.53 .28 -.28 .10 -.10
Baltimore .71 -.71 .84 .54 -.95 -.50 .56 -.53 -.10 .10 -.01 .01
Boston -.62 .62 2.12 .16 -.95 .05 -.71 -.53 .02 -.02 -.38 .38
Chicago (N) -1.39 1.39 .37 .26 -.95 -.70 -.64 1.48 .43 -.43 -.01 .01
Chicago (A) -1.32 1.32 -.08 .98 1.10 -1.61 -.17 .37 -1.25 1.25 -.21 .21
Cincinnati .27 -.27 -.77 -.99 .24 1.71 .05 -.53 -.43 .43 -1.73 1.73
Colorado .85 -.85 .05 -.99 .15 -.08 -.07 .69 -.43 .43 .30 -.30
Cleveland -.71 .71 -.58 .39 .48 -.61 .35 .10 2.15 -2.15 1.25 -1.25
Detroit -1.51 1.51 2.60 .73 -.95 -.36 -1.47 -.13 -1.25 1.25 -.94 .94
Houston -1.06 1.06 -.77 1.31 -.95 .05 .81 -.53 -.76 .76 -.21 .21
Kansas City .49 -.49 1.16 -.99 .84 .88 -1.47 -.13 1.06 -1.06 1.99 -1.99
Los Angeles (A) -1.77 1.77 .58 1.76 1.92 -1.61 -1.47 .10 -1.16 1.16 -.01 .01
Los Angeles (N) .89 -.89 -.58 1.76 1.92 .39 -.56 -1.79 -1.77 1.77 .97 -.97
Miami 1.73 -1.73 -.91 -.01 1.10 -.90 1.79 -.98 -.47 .47 1.99 -1.99
Milwaukee 1.03 -1.03 -.68 .26 -.95 -.70 -.64 2.34 -.14 .14 -.52 .52
Minnesota .49 -.49 -.29 -.99 2.63 2.13 -.33 -2.50 -.85 .85 .18 -.18
New York (N) .03 -.03 -.84 .07 .15 .69 .63 -.77 1.02 -1.02 -1.43 1.43
New York (A) -.18 .18 -.77 -.99 .24 .88 .05 .26 .43 -.43 1.59 -1.59
Oakland -.18 .18 -.91 .98 -.95 -.18 1.79 -.98 -1.49 1.49 .89 -.89
Philadelphia .29 -.29 -.37 .63 -.11 .74 .68 -1.46 .28 -.28 .10 -.10
Pittsburgh -.84 .84 .44 -.13 -.95 -.99 .81 .46 1.02 -1.02 -.46 .46
St. Louis -.18 .18 -1.01 -.99 .84 .88 -.33 .46 .02 -.02 .30 -.30
San Diego -.84 .84 1.16 -.99 -.05 -1.61 .81 .46 1.18 -1.18 -1.68 1.68
San Francisco -1.39 1.39 .37 2.77 -.95 -.70 -.64 -.24 -1.16 1.16 .79 -.79
Seattle -.79 .79 .94 .07 .15 .69 -1.47 -.04 .37 -.37 1.50 -1.50
Tampa Bay .62 -.62 -.58 -.30 .48 -.11 -.10 .58 .70 -.70 -.21 .21
Texas 1.60 -1.60 -.77 -.99 .24 .05 .05 1.05 .02 -.02 -.38 .38
Toronto 1.15 -1.15 1.16 -.99 -.95 .88 -1.47 1.05 2.29 -2.29 -.81 .81
Washington -1.06 1.06 -.45 -.99 .64 .61 -1.47 1.58 -.63 .63 -1.61 1.61

Table 3: Type of drafted players by round, Z-scores (2011-2015)
Team 1st Round % HS Arms 1st Round % HS Bats 1st Round % College Arms 1st Round % College Bats 2nd Round % HS Arms 2nd Round % HS Bats 2nd Round % College Arms 2nd Round % College Bats
Arizona .10 -1.11 1.89 -.70 -.35 1.25 -.10 -.96
Atlanta 1.39 .03 .33 -1.43 -.25 -.65 .09 1.14
Baltimore .70 .37 -.53 -.45 .07 -.26 -.25 .61
Boston .27 -.70 .24 .17 .07 -.26 -.25 .61
Chicago (N) -.67 -.98 -.70 1.92 -.12 -.49 .37 .30
Chicago (A) -1.69 .37 .68 .53 1.04 -1.43 .78 -.96
Cincinnati -.10 -.42 -.13 .53 -.25 .92 -.60 .09
Colorado -.97 1.55 1.17 -1.43 .39 .92 -.60 -.96
Cleveland 1.00 -.22 -1.74 .77 2.98 -1.43 -1.28 -.96
Detroit -.26 -.57 1.17 -.26 -.12 -1.43 1.19 .30
Houston -.10 .37 -.93 .53 -.12 -1.43 .37 1.56
Kansas City .70 -.42 .68 -.78 -.12 -.49 1.19 -.96
Los Angeles (A) -1.69 -1.99 .68 2.48 1.69 .13 -1.28 -.96
Los Angeles (N) -.67 .03 2.41 -1.43 -.90 .92 .78 -.96
Miami 1.39 .03 -.70 -.59 -.90 -.49 2.02 -.96
Milwaukee -.89 .37 .68 -.13 .39 .92 -.60 -.96
Minnesota .70 .37 -.13 -.78 -.90 -1.43 2.84 -.96
New York (N) -.50 1.55 -1.74 .53 .65 -.49 -.46 .30
New York (A) .36 -.98 -.70 1.08 -.90 .13 .78 .09
Oakland -1.69 2.06 -.70 .25 -.90 -1.43 1.19 1.56
Philadelphia .70 1.55 -.53 -1.43 -.35 -.09 -.69 1.74
Pittsburgh -1.69 1.16 -.13 .53 1.04 .13 -1.28 .09
St. Louis .10 -.81 .08 .53 -.25 1.70 -.60 -.96
San Diego 1.58 -1.35 -1.74 1.24 -.35 1.25 -1.28 .84
San Francisco -.67 -.98 1.37 .25 -.90 -.49 .37 1.56
Seattle -1.69 -.22 .08 1.50 -.25 .13 -.60 1.14
Tampa Bay -.74 .84 -.29 .13 -.35 1.25 -.10 -.96
Texas .70 .37 -.13 -.78 -.25 1.70 -.60 -.96
Toronto 1.39 .03 -.18 -1.01 2.98 -1.43 -1.28 -.96
Washington -.26 -1.99 1.17 .92 -.90 -.49 .37 1.56

Table 3 (cont): Type of drafted players by round, Z-scores (2011-2015)
Team 3rd Round % HS Arms 3rd Round % HS Bats 3rd Round % College Arms 3rd Round % College Bats 4th round % HS Arms 4th round % HS Bats 4th round % College Arms 4th round % College Bats
Arizona -.92 .96 .19 -.29 -.74 .94 1.01 -1.36
Atlanta 1.13 -.06 -.61 -.29 -.74 .94 1.01 -1.36
Baltimore .11 -.06 .99 -1.33 -.74 .94 -.07 -.29
Boston -.92 .96 -.61 .75 .65 -1.23 1.01 -.29
Chicago (N) 1.13 -1.08 -1.41 1.79 .65 -.14 1.01 -1.36
Chicago (A) -.92 -1.08 .59 1.27 -.74 -1.23 2.08 -.29
Cincinnati .11 -1.08 .99 -.29 -.74 .94 1.01 -1.36
Colorado .11 -1.08 .19 .75 -.74 -.14 -.07 .79
Cleveland .11 -.06 .19 -.29 .65 -.14 -1.15 .79
Detroit -.92 -.06 .19 .75 -.74 -1.23 1.01 .79
Houston -.92 -1.08 1.79 -.29 -.74 -.14 -.07 .79
Kansas City 2.16 -1.08 -.61 -.29 2.04 .94 -2.23 -.29
Los Angeles (A) -.92 -1.08 2.58 -1.33 -.74 -1.23 1.01 .79
Los Angeles (N) -.92 -1.08 .99 .75 -.74 .94 -.07 -.29
Miami -.92 2.57 -.84 -.59 -.74 3.11 -1.15 -1.36
Milwaukee 1.13 -1.08 .99 -1.33 -.74 .94 -.07 -.29
Minnesota -.92 -.06 .19 .75 .65 -.14 1.01 -1.36
New York (N) .79 .62 -.08 -1.33 -.74 -.14 -1.15 1.87
New York (A) 2.16 -.06 -1.41 -.29 -.74 .94 -.07 -.29
Oakland .11 .96 -.61 -.29 -.74 -.14 -.07 .79
Philadelphia -.92 2.33 -.74 -.47 -.74 -.14 -1.15 1.87
Pittsburgh .11 -1.08 -1.41 2.83 .65 -1.23 -.07 .79
St. Louis -.07 -.23 .59 -.47 -.74 -.14 -1.15 1.87
San Diego -.92 -1.08 1.79 -.29 .65 -.14 -1.15 .79
San Francisco -.92 -.06 -.61 1.79 .65 -1.23 1.01 -.29
Seattle .55 .38 -.84 .15 .65 -1.23 -.07 .79
Tampa Bay .11 .96 -1.41 .75 2.04 -.14 -1.15 -.29
Texas .11 -.06 .19 -.29 -.74 .94 1.01 -1.36
Toronto 2.16 -.06 -.61 -1.33 2.04 -.14 -1.15 -.29
Washington -.92 .96 .19 -.29 2.04 -1.23 -.07 -.29

Table 4: League-Average Tendencies 2011-2015
Tendency League Average
Total HS Picks 46%
Total College Picks 54%
1st round HS 52%
1st round College 48%
2nd round HS 54%
2nd round College 46%
3rd round HS 39%
3rd round College 61%
4th round HS 33%
4th round College 67%
1st Round % HS Arms 24%
1st Round % HS Bats 28%
1st Round % College Arms 24%
1st Round % College Bats 24%
2nd Round % HS Arms 23%
2nd Round % HS Bats 30%
2nd Round % College Arms 31%
2nd Round % College Bats 15%
3rd Round % HS Arms 18%
3rd Round % HS Bats 21%
3rd Round % College Arms 35%
3rd Round % College Bats 26%
4th round % HS Arms 11%
4th round % HS Bats 23%
4th round % College Arms 41%
4th round % College Bats 25%
% Bats 49%
% Prep Bats 53%
% College Bats 47%
% C 15%
% 1B 7%
% 2B 7%
% 3B 16%
% SS 16%
% OF 39%
% Arms 51%
% Prep Arms 38%
% College Arms 62%
% LHP 27%
% RHP 73%

P.S. I want to thank John for welcoming me back. I may not be as prolific as I have been in the past, but I hope to contribute at least once a week. Draft rankings and mock drafts are coming!