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Crystal Ball: Daniel Norris, LHP, Detroit Tigers

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By John Sickels
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Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

There were frequent requests last week for a Crystal Ball regarding lefty Daniel Norris of the Detroit Tigers. Here it is. I will preface this by saying that I like Daniel Norris a lot, but worry about his ability to stay healthy. This CB assumes durability issues. You could also do one where he stays healthy and becomes one of the best pitchers in baseball for ten years.

The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.

It is not just thrown together; I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground.

Year Team G GS IP H R ER W L ERA K BB SV Age K/9 BB/9 H/9
2014 Blue Jays 5 1 6.6667 5 4 4 0 0 5.4 4 5 0 21 5.4 6.75 6.75
2015 Blue Jays 5 5 23.333 23 11 10 1 1 3.86 18 12 0 22 6.94 4.63 8.87
Tigers 8 8 36.667 30 20 15 2 1 3.68 27 7 0 6.63 1.72 7.36
2016 Tigers 14 13 69.333 75 30 26 4 2 3.38 71 22 0 23 9.22 2.86 9.74
2017 Tigers 28 28 152 163 83 78 6 9 4.62 139 57 0 24 8.23 3.38 9.65
2018 Tigers 7 7 40 34 13 13 4 1 2.93 48 10 0 25 10.8 2.25 7.65
2019 Tigers 4 4 21 22 12 12 0 2 5.14 18 9 0 26 7.71 3.86 9.43
2020 Tigers 30 30 183 178 78 74 12 9 3.64 167 64 0 27 8.21 3.15 8.75
2021 Cardinals 32 32 198 199 100 94 13 13 4.27 172 65 0 28 7.82 2.95 9.05
2022 Cardinals 31 31 200 177 80 72 15 10 3.24 165 57 0 29 7.43 2.57 7.97
2023 Rockies 27 27 177 201 110 102 9 9 5.19 143 60 0 30 7.27 3.05 10.2
2024 Rockies 30 30 185 198 98 93 11 9 4.52 145 57 0 31 7.05 2.77 9.63
2025 Rockies 10 10 52 63 33 30 2 4 5.19 38 20 0 32 6.58 3.46 10.9
2026 Rockies 19 1 33 34 20 20 2 2 5.45 34 12 1 33 9.27 3.27 9.27
Indians 3 0 5 4 2 2 0 0 3.6 5 2 0 9 3.6 7.2
Angels 1 0 4 3 3 3 0 1 6.75 1 5 0 2.25 11.3 6.75
Pirates 10 0 12 9 1 1 0 0 0.75 7 2 0 5.25 1.5 6.75
2027 Pirates 35 25 152 145 74 72 7 4 4.26 102 39 1 34 6.04 2.31 8.59
2028 Pirates 29 29 179 170 75 70 10 9 3.52 119 44 0 35 5.98 2.21 8.55
2029 Cardinals 18 12 91 93 55 45 5 8 4.45 63 40 0 36 6.23 3.96 9.2
346 293 1820 1826 902 836 103 94 4.13 1486 589 2 456 7.35 2.91 9.03

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