Crystal Ball: Mat Latos

by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2025 7:00 PM EDT

San Diego Padres pitcher Mat Latos (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Remember: NOT a projection. This is a conversation starter.

I am too tired to figure the FIP, but if someone wants to do it, use 45 IBB and 52 HBP for his career. Let's see if the ERA is anywhere close to the components. I try to make them reasonably consistent but my old spreadsheet formula got messed up and my math is failing me today.

Poll

What do you think of this Crystal Ball?

I expect that his peak will be better than this

239 votes

I expect that his career will last longer than this

67 votes

This seems close to what I expect

181 votes

I expect his career won't last this long

73 votes

I expect that his peak won't be this good

84 votes

644 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 31 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I'll slap together FIP estimates

Just give me a couple minutes!

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2025 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

Okay, here they are:

FIP marks, 2009-2024:

2009: 4.84
2010: 3.15
2011: 3.43
2012: 3.71
2013: 4.67
2014: 2.98
2015: 2.95
2016: 3.73
2017: 4.10
2018: 3.67
2019: 2.92
2020: 2.08
2021: 2.50
2022: 3.29
2023: 4.43
2024: 9.99

Career: 3.45

2014 and 2015 are the kind of years that could earn him a Cy Young, especially 2014.

I’d love to convert the FIP and innings marks to WAR, but unfortunately I don’t know how.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2025 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

Good work

by killa on Sep 22, 2025 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

2014 is the like the best year since Johan Santana last won

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 22, 2025 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Zack Greinke, 2009?

2.33 FIP/2.16 ERA in 233 innings. Definitely beats Latos.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2025 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Forgot about him

I have blanked Grienke from my mind just about all season. Thanks for that.

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 22, 2025 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I like how he will be one of the few members of the 100 win 100 save club

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by WVPiratesfan on Sep 22, 2025 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

I was surprised to see the move to reliever

What makes you think he’ll switch to being a closer later in his career?

by RM on Sep 22, 2025 7:31 PM EDT reply actions

Durability probably

he has had injury/durability questions throughout his career

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 22, 2025 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Im wondering the same thing

by Yankees10 on Sep 22, 2025 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I like how he is gonna to play on the Yankees after he becomes one of the top 5 pitchers (possibly?) in baseball

At first look i thought he was injuring plagued throughout his later years, but upon looking at it again, him becoming a lights out closer over his last 5 years is realistic to me.

Latos is my favorite pitcher (Felix Hernandez aside) and i would hope he last alot longer than this as a starter

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 22, 2025 7:32 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's more interesting that he's only with New York for four years

So is John saying that Latos is going to have two monster years in 2014 and 2015… only to sign a four-year deal with New York? What is he making per year? Like $30 million?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2025 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a Good Point

Also, it’s worth noting that the Yankees are the ones converting him ther after a rough turn at SP in 2017…His K/9 fell drastically (by at least 2+/9 according to my crude head math).

by killa on Sep 22, 2025 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I think John is just slapping together teams

Man is sick

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 22, 2025 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted Higher Peak

I think he’s going to be more durable/last longer in an SP role than age 30. I always thought he was underrated coming into this year, with those against arguing mechanical issues and makeup among their concerns. I think the camps were split, at worst, entering this season. With his big year though, I fear everyone will think this is the peak for some reason. The Pads have done well to limit his IPs (“DL”) as much as possible in a pennant race though. I’m not too different on the career totals, I just think it will shape up more as an SP for longer. An SP for longer would be a higher peak for me than an RP for 7 years in his career, whether he gets Saves or not.

by killa on Sep 22, 2025 7:34 PM EDT reply actions

Tough to really make a decisive vote here

His career lasts pretty long, yet I can’t vote higher peak because how do you get much better than this year? I do see him sticking as a pitcher though, with a tim hudson type TJ season.

by asyouwish33 on Sep 22, 2025 10:29 PM EDT reply actions

Starting Pitcher that is.

by asyouwish33 on Sep 22, 2025 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I know John removed the exact words from the poll but I find this both optimistic and pessimistic.

Optimistic in that I think his peak will be slightly lower as a starting pitcher; pessimistic in that I think that an eventual move to the pen won’t happen as soon in Latos’ career as John is crystal-balling.

by ThomasG on Sep 23, 2025 8:01 AM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't mind seeing Latos pitching

in St. Louis in this context.

Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.

by Whiteyballer on Sep 23, 2025 8:04 AM EDT reply actions

Closer?

I’m not sure I see Latos as a closer towards the end of his career. Other than that, these numbers are good.

by armets on Sep 23, 2025 8:35 AM EDT reply actions

Meh i think his peak will be better.

by Lolmoarpl0x on Sep 23, 2025 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

he's pretty much a shoe in for the 2014 CY here

that’s a pretty damn high peak.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Sep 23, 2025 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, that's what I was thinking

That two-year span where he pitches 430 innings with a sub-3 FIP looks awfully damn good to me. Maybe the peak isn’t that long, but let’s remember that we’re talking about a pitcher here.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 23, 2025 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

I voted peak will be better, not because I expect a better single season but because I expect a better peak range of years. The crystal ball has Latos showing his peak K rate and K/BB this year, with those rates dropping as he matures and gains experience. I know it’s possible that those things could happen but I guess I’m more optimistic than this path John chose.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 23, 2025 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Additionally

Was Tom Gordon any inspiration for this Crystal Ball? The path isn’t exactly the same as Gordon didn’t stick in the rotation for his first seven years, but the career numbers are somewhat similar:

Gordon: 3.71 FIP 138 wins 203 saves 8.23 K/9 2108 IP

Latos: 3.45 FIP 121 wins 163 saves 8.53 K/9 1799 IP

Gordon had a bit longer career though he bounced back and forth from the rotation to the pen in his time w/KC. Latos presumably has an injury that forces the move to the pen and has a much better BB/9 rate(3.05 BB/9 vs. Gordon’s 4.17 BB/9).

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 23, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

nope

Naw, Gordon wasn’t really a comp I had in mind, but I see the parallel.

by John Sickels on Sep 23, 2025 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought the same thing when i read it

was also kinda thinking of Smoltz too

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 23, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

He was my first thought

Like the crystal ball was a scaled down version of Smoltz career without the return to the rotation. I also thought of guys like Derek Lowe and Octavio Dotel and of course Eckersley, but Gordon was the closest statistically.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Sep 23, 2025 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions