Sunday Open Thread

by John Sickels on Sep 19, 2025 1:16 PM EDT

I'm busy on a couple of non-blog projects today, so here is an open thread for you. Upcoming stuff for this week includes, in no particular order, Crystal Balls for Jason Heyward, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, and Buster Posey, a look at Jose Bautista, thoughts on pitching development, Borchering/Davidson Smackdown, and more Double-A Transition stuff. I'm going to punt on a Neftali Feliz CB right now because I have no idea if he'll be a starter or reliever down the line. I'm also starting work on the 2011 book so things are going to get hectic soon.

You all have a good Sunday!

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Thanks John!

This will be a really good week

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 19, 2025 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

wow john!

thanks for all these crystal balls! im excited for this week!

by matthewmafa on Sep 19, 2025 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, i’m really excited about the Kershaw and Posey crystal balls. It’s just too bad Kershaw got roughed up so hard today :(

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 20, 2025 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions

crystal balls always piss someone off

ballsy.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Sep 19, 2025 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

Crystal Balls are fun but when someone takes them way to seriously

it can ruin it for everyone

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 19, 2025 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Cant wait for the crystal balls

by Yankees10 on Sep 19, 2025 5:52 PM EDT reply actions

Jason Heyward Crystal Ball

I just wrote a Crystal Ball for Heyward:

YR Team HR RBI AVG Age
10 ATL 43 118 0.369 20
11 ATL 42 111 0.337 21
12 ATL 35 111 0.331 22
13 ATL 41 115 0.314 23
14 ATL 44 119 0.333 24
15 ATL 44 117 0.329 25
16 ATL 37 113 0.354 26
17 ATL 36 110 0.367 27
18 ATL 39 118 0.300 28
19 ATL 39 105 0.381 29
20 ATL 44 114 0.352 30
21 ATL 43 114 0.387 31
22 ATL 39 102 0.398 32
23 ATL 36 107 0.379 33
24 ATL 44 114 0.354 34
25 ATL 35 114 0.384 35
26 ATL 41 108 0.346 36
27 ATL 35 104 0.385 37
28 ATL 36 111 0.315 38
29 ATL 37 107 0.400 39
30 ATL 37 102 0.388 40
31 ATL 39 101 0.363 41
32 ATL 41 108 0.325 42

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew

by alexwithclass on Sep 19, 2025 6:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I think you are underestimating all that is Heyward

Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.

by Whiteyballer on Sep 19, 2025 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

i mean, i love Heyward just as much as the next Braves fan

but that puts him as a cross between Teddy Ballgame, PujGODols and Babe Ruth.

odds of him hitting .400 as a 39 year old? not very high. i like the power numbers (up until around his age 35 years…remember, he won’t be able to DH to save his legs), but some of the batting averages are ridiculous.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 20, 2025 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you're selling him short

I mean, this guy’s floor is the greatest ballplayer ever. His ceiling is the greatest living organism ever. I think this Crystal Ball is pretty much a middle ground.

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew

by alexwithclass on Sep 20, 2025 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

lol

Jason Heyward said “it’s not evolution by natural selection, it’s evolution to get to me.”

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 20, 2025 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Good one.

I’ll take the under on him hitting 907 homers, personally.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 19, 2025 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I sense sarcasm...

www.orioles-nation.com/forums

by ravensfan3 on Sep 19, 2025 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions

but never more than 119 RBI?

pshhhhh please

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 19, 2025 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

he didnt write the BBs...

400 per year, thats why so few RBIs..

by matthewmafa on Sep 19, 2025 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

All of this will happen

by Yankees10 on Sep 19, 2025 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I realize it’ll be hard for him to get to 43 homers and a .369 average this year. But there are two weeks left.

sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew

by alexwithclass on Sep 20, 2025 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Plenty of time

by Yankees10 on Sep 20, 2025 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

too pessimistic

by JFP on Sep 20, 2025 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Idk

I think he should be good for about 10 more homeruns a year on average.

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 20, 2025 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I can't believe you spent time writing this up.

Bravo.

by Humbled Fan on Sep 20, 2025 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Texas Rangers Pitching Development

For John & Community,
I sure many blogs have already discussed this topic, but I’m very, VERY curious to see how Nolan Ryan influences the Rangers’ minor league pitching in the coming years.. As a Cubs fan, and secondly an NL fan, I don’t watch the American League very often - so my knowledge of the Rangers MInor League and even Major League pitching talent is zero beyond Feliz & Holland. My questions are:

1.) How does the Rangers’ Minor League pitching grade out on the whole?
2.) What’s a rough estimate ratio of Top Prospect pitchers who were drafted out of high school vs. college in their farm system?
3.) Based on those answers, do you think Nolan will push the Rangers to go after mostly HS pitchers, College pitchers, or simply the best pitcher available?
4.) How long would an appropriate estimate be to judge Nolan’s influence - 4 years maybe? (i.e. - You can’t really grade an NFL team’s draft until 3 years later after you see how the players have developed).

Curious to hear thoughts and ideas.

by Ramakis34 on Sep 19, 2025 9:22 PM EDT reply actions

confused

Nolan’s had a voice in player development for several years now. There don’t seem to be any readily apparent effects despite his vocal suggestions that changes could be made.

Draft-wise, the Rangers do seem to heavily prefer high school pitchers, at least in key draft slots . . .better to get those arms on their development plan and innings control early on.

by mrkupe on Sep 19, 2025 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

remember

Nolan was never all that great of a pitcher until he left New York. He was always a thrower, but a pitcher? He couldn’t find the strike zone to save his life. To say that he is involved in pitching development within the Rangers scares the bejeezus out of me.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 20, 2025 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Jose Bautista Crystal Ball

2011

.245 23 HR 73 RBI

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. - Rogers Hornsby

BallKnowledge

by Shutdown on Sep 19, 2025 11:53 PM EDT reply actions

Bautista

.255 AVG
21 HRs
61 RBI
110 games (50 game steroid suspension)

by nyy601 on Sep 20, 2025 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

It still won’t stop him from being a 30+ HR guy for the foreseeable future, though…

by GuyinNY on Sep 20, 2025 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Steroid suspension huh?

How long before he goes to the Yankees then?

by Humbled Fan on Sep 20, 2025 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

-1

The Bautista breakout is somewhat legitimate.

He’s shown massive improvement in his K/BB numbers this year, and he’s batting .262 with a freakishly low .237 BABIP.

He’s overhauled his swing mechanics this year, and it’s had a huge effect on both his ability to make contact and the kind of contact that he’s making - his batted ball data for 2010 is drastically different than it was in the past.

Over 150 games, I’d project something like a .255-.265 average with 25-30 homers and a good walk rate- Bautista’s established himself as an above-average regular.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 20, 2025 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

BamBam Bautista

2011

265 AVE, 387 OBP, 534 SLG, 921OPS - 36 HR, 44 2X, 118 RBI

He becomes one of six 2011 30+ Jays home run hitters as Snider gets 32, Arencibia gets 30, Wells gets 30, Lind gets 33 and Hill gets 32. Led by the stellar pitching of the “Fab Five Jay Birds:” Morrow, Marcum, Romero, Cecil and ROY Drabek the 2011 Jays power past the slumping Rays to finish second while the surging O’s catch the reeling BoSox.

by Mylegacy on Sep 20, 2025 12:57 AM EDT reply actions

Holy shit

I am a man of optimism, but even I think this is a tad optimistic

by jackyz on Sep 20, 2025 1:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Arencibia

Man, whatever you are smoking, pass it over.
Arencibia maaaaybe 20hrs
Lind: this kid is hard to tell now, 25hr
Wells: 24hr
Hill: 12 hr 90 games played
Snider? .240 Snider… 15 HRs

I hate to say Jays in for another rough year.
Morrow - Fragile
Marcum - Solid
Romero - Solid
Cecil - long way to go
Drabek - even longer way to go

And i’ll bet the farm, the kids college fund, and my Steve Balboni game used bat that Bautista doesn’t brake 40 HRs again, except at home on his PS3 playing against his wife.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. - Rogers Hornsby

BallKnowledge

by Shutdown on Sep 20, 2025 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd take you up on that bet, depending on what the other end is

Bautista’s HR/FB% isn’t absurd. For someone of his pedigree it is certainly strange and we can’t expect him to repeat it, but considering all the fly balls he hits its plausible he could hit 40 again.

by Navi's_Navy on Sep 20, 2025 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Davidson v. Boerchering v. Arrenado

Just because I drafted Nolan Arenado and I want to see what you have to say about him. Love the doubles and lack of strikeouts. I can deal with the mid-teen HR numbers but I would like to see more walks.

by Boxkutter on Sep 20, 2025 1:46 AM EDT reply actions

why?

are people trying to add players that don’t fit to an already perfect smackdown?

by auclairkeithbc on Sep 20, 2025 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

threeway

Three way smackdowns are a bit harder to do.

by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2025 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

How does Arenado not "fit"?

If you mean that a Smackdown should only be two players, because like Mr. Sickels says, they are harder to do, then I understand. But if you mean as a comparable player, how does Arenado not fit? He was a high school 3B who got drafted the same year that Davidson and Borchering did and played the same level as they did last year. The only exception is that he isn’t a Diamondback.

by Boxkutter on Sep 20, 2025 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions