Edwin Jackson No-Hitter
Not exactly a "clean" performance with eight walks and 146 pitches, but a no-hitter is a no-hitter and he's in the record books now. Given the effort he had to put into this and the high pitch count, should A.J. Hinch be conservative with Jackson's workload for a couple of weeks?
Here is Jackson's Prospect Retro, written back in 2008.
Edwin Jackson was drafted by the Dodgers in the sixth round in 2001, out of high school in Columbus, Georgia. A two-way player in high school, he was considered raw but promising by the Dodgers on the mound and they made him a full-time pitcher. He posted a 2.45 ERA in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League, with a 23/19 K/BB ratio in 22 innings, showing above-average velocity but needing to improve his control. He would rate as a "Grade C with higher potential" prospect if I had put him in the 2002 book.
Jackson took a big step forward in '02, posting a 1.98 ERA with a 85/33 K/BB and just two homers allowed in 105 innings for South Georgia in the Sally League. He hit 96 MPH with the fastball, and while his curve, slider, and changeup were all erratic, it was clear his potential was immense. I gave him a Grade B in the '03 book, wanting to see better component ratios but praising his long-term upside.
Skipped past High-A in 2003, he went 7-7, 3.70 with a 157/53 K/BB in 148 innings for Double-A Jacksonville, allowing just 121 hits. His fastball now hit 99 MPH at times, and was consistently in the 93-95 range. His secondary pitches and control improved. The Dodgers gave him three starts in September and he did great, going 2-1, 2.45 with a 19/11 K/BB in 22 innings. I moved him up to a straight Grade A, impressed wtih his rapid progress, but warning that he could struggle if rushed and that it would be best to use him as a long reliever at first rather than trying to push him into the rotation right away. I also warned that Triple-A Las Vegas was a tough place to pitch and that some adjustments could be needed.
Indeed, 2004 was a struggle: he was hammered in 24.2 major league innings (7.30 ERA) and developed major control problems at Vegas, with a 5.86 ERA and 70/55 K/BB in 91 innings. His velocity was down a bit, his secondary pitches regressed, he had a strained forearm, and in general he just wasn't as sharp. I reduced him to a Grade B in the 2005 book, and wrote the following:
"My guess, and to be clear this is a pure guess, is that he will continue to struggle somewhat, improving a bit but not to his '03 level, at least not right away. But after some additional scuffling, he'll eventually turn things around and have a good career, perhaps in relief, but only after most of his fantasy owners have punted."
More struggles followed in 2005: complete collapse of his control at Vegas (8.62 ERA, 33/37 K/BB in 55 innings), and additional poor pitching in the majors. The Dodgers punted and shipped him off to Tampa Bay, where he had a difficult time in 2006 in both the majors and minors, before starting to show some signs of life last year, and then pitching well in the early going in 2007. It seems like he's been around forever, but Jackson is still just 24 (ed.-he is now 26)
In retrospect, I think Jackson's struggles 2004-2006 were a result of 1) being rushed a bit too fast in general 2) some minor nagging health problems 3) Las Vegas 4) confidence issues and learning to cope with adversity. It is too early to know if his better pitching this year is genuine skill improvement, better luck, or a combination of the two factors. i'd like to see the K/BB ratio improve a bit, but it has been better over his last three starts, and it's not like this is coming out of nowhere: he's flashed brilliance before. My guess is that Jackson is genuinely improving, and that he'll end up having a solid year. In short, I'm sticking with my "guess" back in 2005.
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For sure
It was fine for Hinch to let him have his moment, but you have to keep an eye on the workload for a while.
Touch em all Joe...
by FisherCat on Jun 26, 2025 11:23 AM EDT reply actions
I love the old school no-no
of 0-0-0- lone and 7+ base runners. He got moment in the sun, now the D-backs need to go into long term mode.
Yeah he needs to be monitored over his next couple of stops. And maybe whisper in his ear as his confidence level is high, that he could be this type of pitcher if he only takes control of the zone a little better.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Jun 26, 2025 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
0-0-0 line
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Jun 26, 2025 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
random note
Jackson is actually 26, 27 in September.
by mrkupe on Jun 26, 2025 11:31 AM EDT reply actions
yeah
Yeah, the retro was written two years ago
by John Sickels on Jun 26, 2025 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
sorry
Wasn’t clear which part of it was the old retro and which part represented your current thinking. I’d give the guy an extra day of rest before each of his next couple of starts and keep him to 90-100 pitches. Seeing as the Dbacks are going nowhere fast, they might as well take the opportunity to give a candidate or two a test run in the majors.
This gives me an interesting idea, though . . .much like a good workout program alternates periods of heavy exercise followed by periods lighter exercise, might a pitching program that rotated 90 pitch outings with, say, 120 pitch outings be productive in building up young pitchers?
by mrkupe on Jun 26, 2025 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
You know many compare Jenrry Mejia to Jackson
by Bravesin07 on Jun 26, 2025 12:34 PM EDT reply actions
Jackson is another example of how a prospect who throws upper 90s late into games is rarely moved to reliever. And unlike Dan Cabrera, Jackson’s example shows that some of these pitchers eventually do figure it out.
by limozeen on Jun 26, 2025 6:01 PM EDT reply actions
Jackson has three pitches
Jackson stayed in the rotation just as much because he showed development in his breaking stuff as because he could hold his mid-90’s stuff for most of a game.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 26, 2025 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, but you could argue that the fact that he had multiple pitches would have made putting him in the pen even easier, had his late-inning velocity (and velocity in general) not been special. The guys that worry me the most when it comes to moving to the bullpen are the ones whose stuff is great early, but fades as the game goes on (Simon Castro worries me, for example). Or their stuff is good as a starter but plays up tremendously in the pen (off the top of my head, I think that Andrew Cashner and Tanner Scheppers fit this mold).
by limozeen on Jun 26, 2025 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Off topic, but
John, was wondering if you could do a follow-up to your 2005 prospect retro of Hank Blalock. Was looking at his numbers for the Rays this year. Seems like he has really fallen off….and did not do what many of us, including you I believe, thought he would do.
by cookiedabookie on Jun 26, 2025 6:38 PM EDT reply actions
Two days
extra rest coming. Pitches Friday instead of tonight as scheduled. Jackson said he felt fine after the game, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed. I’m not generally a pitch-count scold, but that’s a pretty lofty number these days. At least it’s June, and not April.
by blackoutyears on Jun 30, 2025 1:25 PM EDT reply actions
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