A reader asked this in the radio thread, but I didn't get to it on the show, so I will answer it now.
"What do you see as a realistic payoff for unprotected first round picks?
In other words, can a team realistically draft and sign a prep player, or does the leverage given the player mean Drew Storen is the best case scenario?
I'm thinking of the Rangers' #15...some mocks have a college arm projected there, others have more higher-ceiling HS players. The HS kids just don't seem like a wise gamble...obviously this team got burned bad on the Purke pick."
I think you have to go conservative with an unprotected pick: it reduces the leverage of the team, and the agents certainly know this. I expect teams with picks like that will go with college players mostly, and wouldn't pick a high school guy unless they have a pre-arranged agreement or are absolutely certain they are signable. First round picks are not disposable, and I don't think we will see many gambles, especially for the Rangers with their possible financial limits this year.