Keeper League SP Prospect Ranking, All Opinions Welcome

by fps31520 on Feb 14, 2026 1:19 PM EST Comment 21 comments

It's a deep keeper league, 12 teams, 12 keepers per team, 22 man rosters total. I won last year, so I'm picking 12th. You can draft anyone you want, but we have a rule that if a player doesn't actually play in the majors during the year you drafted him, he can't be kept for next year. For example, a guy took Strasburg last year before the 2009 season started, but is not allowed to keep him since he didn't pitch in MLB in 2009. Therefore, Strasburg is back in the draft, but definitely won't fall to me anyway.

These guys are all expected to be available in the draft, probably by the time I pick. Don't worry about who else I have on my team, don't worry about scoring. Based purely on who you think will have the best career.

Here's the list, I'm interested in the opinion of anyone who cares to comment at all. Give an ordered list, I guess, with or without reasons.

Wade Davis

Derek Holland

Madison Bumgarner

Chris Tillman

Trevor Cahill

Thanks in advance.

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My 2 Cents...

I would be quite surprised if Madbum or W.Davis fall to you at the 12th pick.

Here is how I would rank them…

1. Madison Bumgarner - I am slightly concerned about the velocity drop, but he still pitched extremely effectively. Going into 2010, he has a guaranteed 5th SP spot.

2. Wade Davis - Seems like the ideal type of pitcher. A big kid, will log a lot of innings, keep you in games, rack up a good amount of strikeouts. The John Lackey comp is a popular one and I have to agree with it. Only concern is that he is in a tough division and will face a lot of great offenses.

3. Chris Tillman - Love his fastball/curveball combination. He will be a strikeout artist, but he does need to work on his command/control. His pure upside might be the highest on this list, but I think he is not as safe as the two guys above.

4. Trevor Cahill - I believe Cahill will develop into an extremely valuable starter for the Athletics. However, in fantasy baseball he won’t be a force. He loves to pitch to contact. He’ll be a workhorse who can go deep into games if he can cut down on the walks, but he doesn’t seem like the type who will get more than 4 Ks per start.

5. Derek Holland - It pains me to put him this low. He has great stuff, but still needs time to put it all together. Since it is fantasy baseball, the texas homepark played a major role as to why I have him at #5 instead of #3.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Feb 14, 2026 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I had the same top 3 but had Holland higher than Cahill because of the higher K’s. The reason I think all 5 of these guys have a chance to fall to me is because there are still solid major league SPs available, guys like Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Gavin Floyd, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Nick Blackburn, Brad Penny. Even though it’s a keeper league, most guys tend to be in “win now” mode during the first round draft, and young SPs don’t come off the board until the 2nd round.

I actually hope I’m wrong about that this year and guys take Bumgarner and Davis in the 1st round, because I’d rather have someone like Dempster to score guaranteed points and help me defend my title.

Billy Beane once built a roster out of nothing more than fig leaves and a potato.

by fps31520 on Feb 14, 2026 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My rankings:

Wade Davis
Trevor Cahill
Madison Bumgarner
Chris Tillman
Derek Holland

www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Feb 14, 2026 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mine...

Tillman
Holland
Davis
Bumgarner
Cahill

by joegonzo on Feb 14, 2026 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tillman
Holland
Davis
Cahill
Bumgarner

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Although Cahill and MadBum are pretty interchangeable for me

by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 14, 2026 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I like this one the best, though I might put Davis ahead of Holland due to the home ballpark. Tillman is clearly #1 here due to the ace potential. He strikes me as one of those pitchers that takes a couple years to put it all together before dominating.

by guru4u on Feb 14, 2026 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Davis' lack of a third pitch is rarely mentioned

but its a serious concern for me. Holland has some of the same issues, but not to the extent Davis does.

For another thing, Holland’s throws harder (adjusted for Texas issues) than Davis, and Davis is a RHP while Holland is a LHP.

They’re pretty close, though.

by alskor on Feb 14, 2026 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Slightly surprised

people are so down on Bumgarner. I know the velocity dropped, but he’s still in the low 90s with great control, has the #5 spot (at the moment) and pitches in a great home park.

Or is it just that you guys like the other 4 that much, so he’s 5th by default?

by fps31520 on Feb 15, 2026 8:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Im not a Bumgarner fan

Secondary stuff is pretty weak, velocity was down mid 80’s by the end of the year, his mechanics arent very good and in general I think he is massively overrated.

That said, he’s still a top 50 prospect for me… as you say, the reason he’s 5th is in part because the other 4 guys are really good. I do have a lot more faith in Cahill bouncing back than I do in Bumgarner. Cahill had some extremely impressive strikeout numbers last year and I think his struggles are pretty much entirely a result of his being rushed. Bumgarner has the makings of a decent breaking ball, but that and his change are not good right now.

by alskor on Feb 15, 2026 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He was certainly not in the low 90s

He was barely touching the low 90s and it was from out of the pen as opposed to as a starter. As a starter, his velocity was easily 1-2 MPH less than it was as a reliever.

by nixa37 on Feb 15, 2026 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. I get really tired of refuting this over and over, so Ive been trying to ignore it...

…Bumgarner’s velocity started above-average… before settling in at 88-92 mph and then dipping even lower, at times into the mid-80s, by August. Bumgarner’s secondary pitches don’t inspire awe, either, as he gets on the side of his slider and doesn’t have a great feel for his changeup, which he throws infrequently.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2009/268976.html

Bumgarner pitched at 88-90 mph for most of the second half of last season.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269199.html

One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Bumgarner only retired half of the batters he faced on Tuesday, got ejected in the second inning for delivering one behind a batter’s head, came close to making physical contact with not one, but two umps, and here’s the thing: that is not the bad news. The scary part is that one scout in attendance said he sat only in the upper 80s with his fastball, and that his command was erratic.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9309

To harp on some good points:
-Bumgarner has a deceptive delivery that hides the ball well
-He has some really advanced pitchability and showed he could succeed without his best stuff
-Scouts still liked him even with decreased velocity
-Fastball is clearly a plus pitch, even at 88mph.

So… still a good prospect and with things to like. I just don’t get the top 10/20 love.

I used this example before - but Casey Crosby is another lefty who throws harder (and even throws harder than Bum at his best), has better secondary stuff (though really needs to work on his change), has better scouting reports, and -oh yeah - did much better this year, striking out many more guys than Bumgarner. Honestly, why anyone would take Bumgarner over Crosby is a mystery to me. & Crosby isnt even the top pitching prospect in his own system… (Yes, Crosby was older and at a lower level… and yes, his command and control still need work. Both are a result of his TJ, IMO).

by alskor on Feb 15, 2026 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No Flame Intended

“before settling in at 88-92 mph.”

To me, that qualifies as low 90’s. I understand the greater point, which is that his velocity fell. I get that. Not arguing it.

If he comes out this year throwing 88, fine. But I’m not going to say a 20-year-old kid “can’t” hit the low 90s just because he didn’t do it in August during a year in which he pitched at 3 levels.

Again, no flame war, I understand the velocity fell, but to think he’ll NEVER hit the low 90’s consistently isn’t really fair either.

by fps31520 on Feb 15, 2026 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

reports conflict

I dont know what to think on Bumgarner…some say his slider is weak and then there are reports like this that seem to say its not too far off.

He has a slider with a nasty late break, but
he’s been inconsistent with the pitch. That said, when he does finds the proper
release point for slider, he ties left-handed hitters up like a Philly pretzel
and makes right-handed hitters look statuesque.

http://www.mlbfantasyprospects.com/top-25-mlb-fantasy-prospects-for-2010-and-beyond.html

This quote below is also from the same article (the guy is a Bumgarner fan so keep that in mind) but I do think it is a good point

In addition, many tunnel vision-impaired analysts focused on the drop in K/9
rate from 10.42 at Low-A, to 8.51 at High-A, to 5.80 at Double-A. Sure, we would
have liked to see an opposite trend. Again, however, Bumgarner was pitching at
advanced levels for his age. In addition, many of these same critics fail to
mention the 2.52 BB/9 and .209 BAA at the same level. Finally, let’s also not
forget that he had a 9.00 K/9, along with a 1.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP/.229 BAA, in his
short major league stint. These indicators aren’t impressive?

And

Umm,
didn’t anyone ever hear of a 20-year old kid wearing down after throwing over
280 innings in two years? These lower readings surely don’t mean he’s destined
for an injury or that he has forever lost his velocity.

He also impressed Manny Ramirez who he struck out on 3 pitches last year in Spring.

“He’s nasty,” Ramirez said. Told that Bumgarner’s only 19, Ramirez replied, “Unbelievable. He has a fastball and a curveball. He’s sneaky. He throws hard.”<blockquote

by Rkdrip on Feb 16, 2026 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow that was bad

That post was a disaster..my bad

by Rkdrip on Feb 16, 2026 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A tip

Copy and paste your text into the box first. Highlight what you want to appear in a quote box, and hit the quote button. It makes things so much easier for you.

by guru4u on Feb 16, 2026 7:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

semantics

To me, 90mph IS low 90’s. At times last year and the year before, he did hit 94-97, so it’s not like he CAN’T hit the low 90’s. It’s different from someone like Jeremy Sowers who never had the velocity to begin with. What I’m saying is, my original question was two-fold:

1.) Who would you draft this year if all 5 guys were on the board? while also asking yourself

2.) Who will have the best career?

I’m not ready to give up on a 20 year old kid who dominated for a year and a half straight out of high school, then saw his velocity dip in August while he was pitching in the major leagues.

He’s in the rotation already, and pitches in a very friendly ballpark, while being the youngest player on this list.

by fps31520 on Feb 15, 2026 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It appears opinions differ a lot here.

Holland
Tillman
Davis
Bumgarner
Cahill

by nivarsity on Feb 14, 2026 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What do you think of Tillman?

Curious to see the responses.

www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Feb 15, 2026 2:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I really like Tillman

All 5 of these guys are pretty much equal in my mind, with just slight differences based on home park, K rate, and the chance they’ll actually throw 150+ innings with double digit wins every year. I think Bumgarner and Davis have rotation spots right out of the gate, which puts them at 1/2 for me, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these 5 turn into a Cy Young candidate in just 2-3 years.

Tillman may have the highest ceiling on this list, and I feel like Davis has the highest floor. He just seems like a can’t-miss MLB SP to me.

by fps31520 on Feb 15, 2026 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs