German guy, looks like he has a strong arm and skill against baserunners, but otherwise rather raw. Lacks power. I’d say backup at best.

Ceiling….starting major league catcher, .270-.280ish hitter with decent power, very good OBP, above average defense. Power…i could see him hitting 15 homers per season. I don’t see him as a future star but I think he will be a very solid player.

Oh, boy…I like all of those guys. I can see all of them being number two starters if all goes well….probably not number ones though.

White, Duffy, Archer, Castro perhaps. ….it is really close, all of them are B+ prospects I think.

Well without any pro numbers to analyze, this is all based on high school scouting reports and video, and frankly I don’ t have a great feeling for him either way. Scouts like his power and he reportedly has good plate discipline, but it is all theoretical until we see him play.

Thon

Hmmmm…..

Grandal. I’m very impressed with what Mesoraco did this year, but I think Grandal’s glove is good enough that Meso may have to switch positions for them both to get into the lineup

I dunno….they have a lot of guys who all look pretty similar to me once you get past Parker.

2B in the long run

Moore, Lamb, Miller, Delgado, Lyles, Britton

Well Alex Gordon needs to get moving. I will discount pitchers entirely given the injury risk. Ruben Rivera was one. Corey Patterson

Love the speed, glove, and walks…but I just don’t know if he’ll hit enough to be a regular. Could be a nice backup with those skills however.

Well…a little early to say that, depends on so many factors (park effects, what the league context will look like in 2015, etc). Just throwing something out there, how about .292/.378/.499.

i don’t like making comps for college players this early.

Aramis Ramirez maybe?

I’m kind of doubtful about the bat right now, but he’s young enough to develop a lot. Be interesting to see him in the Arizona Fall League.

White Sox venezuelan infielder….very good-to-excellent glove…but I doubt he will hit enough to be an offensive asset in the majors. Utility guy or glove-only starter I’d say.

I’m skeptical

Latin American summer league stats aren’t very predictive, and the north american sample is too small to be meaningful. he’s undersized and just 18 years old. He is on the radar as a prospect, but it is way too early to make a call on how good he will be, for me anyway.

It’s a good question but I wouldn’t really be comfortable answering this until I get my book written.

And I root for the Cubs. Marmol is pretty unreal, but you don’t need to give up Montero to get a great reliever.

I like Marmol quite a bit, but Montero is worth a lot more than Marmol going forward, at least if the Yankees have any sense.

Very projectable guy….if he stays healthy and gains velocity as many scouts expect, he could be a number two starter. If his velocity stays where it currently is, he’s more of a number four perhaps. We need to see how he adapts to pro ball, handles a workload, will his command be as good as expected, etc….

Yes. I don’t see him as a star, but I can see him being a solid regular if all goes well.

Weglarz will hit .289/.378/.525 at the age of 28 but will age poorly from that point forward.

Yeah both of these guys were awful this year. Danks might have a better chance long-term because he is more athletic and plays a more difficult position, but both of these guys have a lot to prove next year.

Well I don’t know what you mean here…do I do this if I am the Padres? Hell yes. Do I do this if I am the Braves? Probably not….I think Freeman is going to be pretty damn good, and a lot cheaper than Adrian

:)

THE MIAA.

Hmm….Kentucky Fried Chicken. My wife’s sister (who I very briefly dated before I met my wife) was the manager there.

I haven’t been to Maryville in almost 10 years. I have heard it has changed a lot.

25%. I’m rather down on him right now.

I have to go with the Rays here….they are just stacked, and I should have had Longoria in that article too. The Reds are a close second…although the Giants with the Posey/Bumgarner duo are good too.

How does that translate? Hard to say….but it certainly gives a team more slack to work with. Too many things factor into it to say for sure…the rest of the division, injuries, luck, etc.

I’d have to say Altuve and Cartright….note that “intriguing” doesn’t necessarily mean “best,” but it means most INTERESTING or unusual. Cartright looks like an interesting sleeper, while Altuve is fascinating because he’s so small yet so productive. Will that hold up at higher levels? Very intriguing player.

Great K/BB ratio, gets grounders, seems to have his stuff back post-injury…we should see him sometime in 2011 and I can see him being a good number three starter.

Well without knowing exactly what was going on in the clubhouse or with the coaches at this point, I can’t say “THIS was definitely the problem.” But certainly, a young pitcher who gains velocity can see a change in his command…if his body changes his mechanics can change too, impacting command, sometimes deliberately but also by accident. I still retain hope that Familia can be a very good pitcher and I am far away from giving up on him. His K/IP and H/IP were strong, and I can see him reboundingin a big way next year.

*outperformed your own expectations the most in 2010

Oh boy….Beachy, who I knew nothing about pre-season….Venters was a lot better than expected….Minor reallly turned things on quickly.

That is an excellent question. Part of it depends on what level the player is playing at. Generally, I am a bit more production-oriented than many analysts, although I certainly like high-upside players as well. But I tend to be suspicious of guys who are all-upside-and-no-performance, especially guys who haven’t played at all yet. I am reluctant to give a player a top rating based solely on scouting reports, although there have been exceptions.

I’ll say he struggles at first…long enough that people start giving up on him…but then he turns things around and has three very good years before fading.

I wrote a piece out on his swing mechanics the other day… check it out.

Hmm…….i’ll still go with Vizcaino, but it is close.

Well I can see him developing into a consistenly solid number three starter if all goes well. But there is just something here that makes me wonder if Leake put so much into 2010 that he’s maybe going to pay for it next year, with an injury or sharply decreased performance? Just a thought.

Wood is a very underrated pitcher and there is a chance he could end up being better than Leake in the long run.

I like what I see so far….strong bat, power, batting average, good discipline, good defensive numbers…but then Robert Stock was great in the Appy League in ‘09 and it didn’t carry forward. If he maintains this, Stanley could be a regular cacher, but let’s see what happens against better pitching.

I’m not sure to be honest. They really seem to have an outstanding pitching development program, and I have been praising the way they handle arms for several years now. The hitting…not so much, although i’m not familiar enough with their coaching emphasis to know if they have a specific program they try to teach. Certainly Evan Longoria didn’t have many problems of course, but he was almost a finished product.

I don’t think so.

well i would expect he would be above average still, but perhaps less impressive than currently on a per-inning basis….slippage in K/IP for example….until he builds up his stamina. So I’d expect him to be good or very good, but not excellent in the short run

after that, who knows.

Do not rush him!

Yes, he has a shot at that. . .if he tears up AA and the Angels have a slot open in the OF, Trout could easily get the call.

I’d say a Number Three.

I don’t get this whole “sign late” thing, I really don’t. I just don’t see the point of these kinds of negotiation tactics. Get on the field already.

well, I think he can be an everyday player, yes. But I have given up on predicting things like trades, especially for teams that are in contention (or try to be) every year.

He’s got very good stuff but his command slipped in Double-A….the ERA was still good but the peripherals went bad, poor K/IP ratio for a guy who throws pretty hard. He still got grounders though. although used as a starter, I think he might be better off in the bullpen in the long run.

yeah I think i’d go with Albert. However, I would strongly consider Jason Heyward too….looking ahead to what he will be like in five or six years, it would be tempting.

the term from scouts i’ve heard about Lawrie is “red-ass”….aggressive, highly competitive, kind of a jerk but very intense and wanting to succeed. I’d be interested in what “bad body language” means…that could mean a lot of different stuff. Is he getting lazy or something? I’d have to check my sources about that.

That’s tough. I love both of these guys. Hosmer has more polish for his age than Montero does I’d say, but Montero has a bit more total upside. But I think Hosmer may be less vulnerable to a crash-and-burn than Montero, and he’s got a good glove at first which Montero will never have.

I might very well go with Hosmer.

Well he’s not going to put a sub-1.00 ERA up all season. But yes, he is for real in terms of being an excellent pitcher. I’d like to see the walks come down a bit, but even without that he should still be very successful

I don’t like the word “condemn”…..there is nothing wrong with a 3-4 starter, and if Bumgarner ends up at “just” that, the Giants should be happy given the attrition rate of pitching prospects.

I don’t think he will be a superstar acetype in the classic sense, but I can see him as a solid number two guy for a long time to come.

but with a better GO/AO

Haven’t thought about it yet. Will do this next week I think.

I don’t expect him to slug .500 in a full season, but I do like the guy….I gave him a Grade A- a few years ago and took all kinds of crap for it when he fell apart with injuries. I’m glad he hit well and still expect him to be a producitve major league player if his body lets him.

like it was a blatant “best player available” pick. I think they liked his floor.

I took Beckham in the shadow draft with their 1st round selection. That being said I thought Alonso would be a beast and still believe he can be a solid bat.

i haven’t sat down and caclulated out the ratio, but i did some retrospective posts looking at old Top 50 lists earlier, seeing whihc guys panned out and which didn’t. On my own lists, surpisingly, the pitchers in many seasons actually did better than the hitters…for some reason I find it easier to analyze pitchers than hitters I suppose. I’m not sure why that is. Generally hitters are supposed to be more predictable.

:)

Well, if he is committed to working hard at it, if I was the Pirates I’d let him try another season and see how it goes. if he’s not adequate by 2012 then you move him across the diamond.

Maybe not worse handled but close to the top.

yes

So many botched to pick from…..

Maybin and Miller, definitely. just badly handled all around. Corey Patterson. Brandon Wood, although he did get a decent chance this year and botched it. The Mets rushing their Latin guys so fast…

…but Jose Bautista got seriously screwed up by his Rule 5 year.

I still see him as a possible fourth starter, and right now I trust the Royals to handle him better than the Angels would have, or were doing.

I’m impressed with what he did this year….he could have a huge breakout in 2011. This could be a good topic for a larger post, yes….please remind me if I don’t do it

ETA….i’ll say July 2011. Comp….i dunno, lefty who gets grounders with at least an average strikeout rate. Who does that sound like? I’m not as good with pulling player comps out of my head as some people…i have to sti down and think about those.

Can’t see the Mets going for that. No guarantee that Tillman or Berry will work out as pitchers, and I value Reyes over Bell.

I agree with the consensus…I see him as a 4th outfielder. He’s got some intriguing skills but too many holes to be a full time starter, at least for a good team.

I’m doubtful at this point…his skills have been stagnant for awhile. I’d say long reliever who can spot start if necessary.

No idea. As I understand it, the BA league lists are compiled by different people for each league, and sometimes they don’t line up as you might expect.

I love BA, but they don’t have a consistent voice or POV,

Eh…haven’t seen enough of them to comment. Small sample size.

With two young kids and limited time and funds, I don’t get to see many movies. Maybe 2 or 3 a year now.

It really depends on what the Reds do with Arroyo’s option. Barring some preseason injury or trade, Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey are pretty much locks. If Arroyo’s around, it’ll come down to some sort of decision on who of Leake and Wood do you give the last spot to. They both deserve it given their performances this year, so it’ll be a really tough decision.

I’m a delmon fan too, but I think John wants 1 question per poster

Well, based solely in 2010 performance, wood deserves it more. But they have a lot of team capital (financial and publicity) invested in Leake.

My guess is that they are both in the rotation for most of 2011. Someone will get hurt.

Well I really think the Rays are in a good position going forward even though it is a tough division.

Right now I think I’d have him as a Grade B. The injuries do weigh against him a bit since they raise durability questions, and I’d like to seee what he can do outside the cal league in a larger sample.

I like him….I think he’s an underrated pitcher. I like the strikeout rate. Needs to refine his command and get his stamina back up, but I do see him as a breakout possiblity for 2011.

He’s very athletic, but he’s also raw and has got some strike zone issues…he did great in the GCL, but he also fanned 10 times in 26 at-bats in the Sally League. He’s from Aruba and went to Western Oklahoma JC, whicih has an interesting pipeline of talent from outside the continental US

Well right now I’d say bench guy….want to see what he does in Double-A before going higher than that. He wasn’t young for Low-A this year.

I think he has legitimate potential as a 4/5 guy. He gave up a lot of hits, but the K/IP and K/BB were very sharp. Double-A will tell us a lot.

I think he’s capable of it, but the Cubs need to leave him the hell alone for a year, stick him at one level and stop promoting him so damn fast. Let him get some success under his belt

I’ve heard BA compare him to a more athletic Ryan Howard or Frank Thomas.

i’m increasingly leery of the whole “comp” thing…esp for players in a-ball.

I see Singleton as a guy who might hit .270-.290 with 25-30 homers and a high OBP, with some peak seasons better than that.

I haven’t heard anything lately, so I don’t know what his current timetable is.

And one thing I heard was he rushes his footwork when a runner is stealing and it showed on one throw down. But, I also heard the angels pitching staff liked throwing to Conger.

If you look over Conger’s defensive numbers, he throws out an adequate number of runners, gives up very few passed balls, but makes a larger number of errors than most catchers. This is interesting…it fits the scouting reports pretty well, which indicate that he’s good at blocking pitches, so-so against runners, and a bit mistake-prone still due to inexperience. Everything I’ve heard about his “intangibles” is pretty positive, in terms of keeping the pitcher focused on the game and leading the team in the infield.

Overall with more experience I think he can be an average defensive catcher.

they are pretty similar but I probably like Saunders a bit more.

This guy is the real deal. He is going to be an impact bat in the mold of Matt Holiday.

Very solid long-term regular with one or two all-star caliber seasons.

Well he had some really outstanding games and some very bad ones too…overall was average in TripleA. I still like him and think he can be a decent fourth starter or a very very good reliever.

I’d give him a chance to start if it was me. But i’ve also given up trying to predict what the Tigers will do with pitchers.

My guess is that he never gets untracked in New York, gets traded somewhere, then has several very good seasons in a different environment.

C+ right now

I’d like to see what he can do at higher levels, if his command holds up. Grade…I’d probably say B- right now, maybe B depending on scouting reports. I’d leave him as a starter for as long as possible.

Enormous raw power, could use more walks but his strikeout rate isnt’ terrible, mixed reports on makeup but very young. Probably a B- right now pending higher level data, could be B or B+ this time next year if it all comes together.

No idea. I don’t even look at Japanese players until they actually come over here.

John compared him Cal Ripken, Jr. if Green hits i peak. I would be curious to see if that still stands.

I didn’t know there was a paperwork issue. He pitched in the Dominican Summer League, so i would assume that everything is OK

They don’t strike me as one of the stronger teams, and this is one way they could probably make an impact beyond the draft, getting more aggressive internationally.

I think Castellanos has more power in his bat than Cowart. I think they could both get to the 20+ category, but Castellanos could get into the 30s. All speculation and projection at this point, of course..

Yeah, I think it will. Of course even as a fly ball guy right now, he’s been very effective. The White Sox will regret that trade.

He’ll never be a great hitter without improvements in his plate discipline, but he can hold down the job for a year or two until Norris is ready

Good tools…..speed, power, athletic….but raw approach at the plate holds him back. Grade C prospect with some sleeper potential if he sharpens up the strike zone

You can never have too many catching prospects. D’Arnaud gives the Jays a nice fallback posiiton if Arencibia gets hurt or flames out. I wouldn’t worry about him being blocked at this point, he’s at least a year away from being ready to help anyway.

I like Kip and have since his Arizona State days. Gut feeling on him is very posititive….I see him as a guy who could hit .300 with plenty of doubles, a strong OBP, and better-than-expected defense one he gets more experience at 2b.

No idea. I haven’t studied the 2011 draft at all.

It has to be Sano…he is the youngest of this group by far.

I am aware of my biases. I used to be too focused on walks for hitters above all, but now i see that it isn’t the walks that matter, but walks within the context of everything else….the BB/K/AB ratio is what you have to look at, not just BB. I’m also increasingly drawn to player who don’t strike out very much, especially if they combine low strikeout rate with power.

I have a weakness for “scrappy second basemen who play above their tools.”

For pitchers, i love strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts, especially if there are grounders involved too. What I HATE are guys who supposedly have great stuff, but who have low strikeout rates. I am very suspicious of players who supposedly throw hard and have great stuff, but who can’t get guys to swing and miss. Strikeouts are fascist, yes, but I want my pitchers to be fascist.

I still believe he’ll be a very very good player. Maybe not a superstar. But very very good.

Well his performance thus far doesn’t project as superstar level.

I’d say AAA. But let’s see what happens in spring training. Spots can open up unexpectedly and if he has a great spring the timetable could move up

I like the approach at the plate he’s shown so far, even BB/K ratio, perhaps more power than expected, granted the sample sizes are very very small with just over 100 at-bats. I think he could end up having a really good year in 2011

I don’t pay much attention to the DSL or VSL, sorry.

Yes, I think he is for real. Improvement this year was based on better health, better conditioning, and changes in his swing. He might need some consolidation time and slow down a bit next year, but I think overall this is genuine improvement

He hit .311/.382/.467 on the road…he’s still a very good prospect and I probably won’t change the Grade B he got last year.

Profar.

I see him more as a 4th outifleder with a broad skill base.

hmmm…probably Hosmer is a bit ahead, but the Angels seem more likely to me to push trout in ’11 than the royals will push Hosmer. I expect they will both be in the lineup in April 2012.

I dunno…ask after the book is done.

oh, you could slot him in after those…but I think he winds up at 2B.

Naw, not really. The sister wasn’t too interested in me as anything more than a friend, and we all get along. We just laugh about it now.