Davis and Thole are doing well, Duda raked after slow start

I think Flores should get a full season of A+, perhaps move him to AA if he does really well midseason
Mejia was great as a starter in minors, I’m curious about his grade
Puello, Valdespin, Javier Rodriguez have shown promise, there’s a bunch of underrated arms in Cohoon, Fuller

Very optimistic for 2011.
Lots of unheralded young players ( Gee, Duda, Cahoon etc) coming through the system and really elevating their status.
In my opinion Dillon Gee has been one of if not the most under rated prospect in the Mets system ,even though he always has and continues to excel at every level and every opportunity he’s been given, even coming of an injury.
I’m most interested in seeing if and how the perceptions on those prospects have progressed.

Not much else to be optimistic about as a Met fan other than the minors. For some weird reason a lot of the Mets prospects sort of get rated lower on lists than other comparable prospects in some other teams systems. They have some nice pieces in the lower levels like Vaughn, A-Rodriguez and Puello. They also have some unheralded but still good looking guys in the upper levels in Zach Lutz, Sean Ratliff, Nieuwenhuis and Duda. Add in the arms of Familia, Cohoon, Gee and it’s starting to look like a decent farm.

Pitching wise, I see only 3 relevant pitching prospects:
Mejia
Familia
Harvey.

And that’s depressing.

I’ll be very curious to see how down people are on Fernando Martinez… perhaps the dreams of super-stardom are gone, but he’s still relatively young with lots of tools and close to the majors.

This top 10 won’t be pretty. After Flores and Harvey, who is next? I guess it has to be one of the chronically injured, Reese Havens or Fernando Martinez.

Mets prospects in recent years have been hurt by the general perception that the Mets front office has “no clue”. So, if you botch things at the major league level, your prospects can´t be very good either.
 
While that “lack of a clue” was partially true (bad contracts to non-stars and rarely a “Plan B” in place if “Plan A” didn´t work), the “Minaya” years weren´t as much of a failure as they are made out to be right now.

Fact is though, that the Mets system 6 years ago was in terrible shape. By all accounts, so far, the most productive prospect from the pre-2005 Baseball America Top 10 list has been RHP Matt Lindstrom, hardly a star himself. Names like Ambiorix Concepcion, Yusmeiro Petit or even Lastings Milledge haven´t made a “lasting” impression.

Since then, the Mets haven´t had many early 1st round June picks that benefit from the added “hype” factor by prospect outlets covering them prior to the draft. The only prospect in recent mets history to fall in that category is really RHP Mike Pelfrey.

Last summer, as part of the big Omar Minaya vs. Adam Rubin “lobby” PR debacle, there were rumblings that the Mets system was among the “worst” in Baseball. A year later, not only did 1b Ike Davis and LHP Jonathan Niese emerge as quality, promising young major leaguers, but RHP Jenry Mejia, SS Ruben Tejada, C Josh Thole, RHP Dillon Gee, OF Lukas Duda and others showed glimpses of future promise. Not too bad for a “barren” system.

Besides the lack of “hyped” June picks, losing early picks with free agent signings and not going overslot has hurt. Likewise, while the production of prospects of Latin American origin has been very promising recently, these usually weren´t the “elite” prospects prior to the signing period. And once they showed potential, they were often pushed through the system at a very young age, not getting time to dominate levels of their age peers but instead get challenged to face much older competition (Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada & Jenry Mejia being the most recent examples). If you care about minor league stats, that has also hurt a lot.

Overall, it has gotten to a point where several prospects may be downrated because of their organization:

1b Ike Davis, # 18 overall in June 2008, struggled in his pro debut (playing through a hip injury as it turned out) and got labeled a bust after 2 months in pro-ball. He broke out in 2009 between High A and AA and - at least so far - has clearly outplayed some far more highly touted 1b prospects from the 2008 draft like Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace or Yonder Alonso, while displaying Gold Glove caliber defensive skills along the way while skipping the AAA level entirely and posting a solid OPS of almost .800 at age 23 in his rookie season.

Would OF prospects like Cory Vaughn, Darrell Ceciliani or Cesar Puello get more reckognition if they were prospects in the Red Sox organization, i.e. with a franchise “that has a clue” ?
Would the velocity & potential of Jeurys Familia or Jenry Mejia be even more important with a “smarter” organization ?
Would the fact that Fernando Martinez merely turned 22 this month and has held his own at every minor league level be more of a factor than the lack of plus production and the injuries ?

While the Mets don´t have that one “Stephen Strasburg” / “Jayson Heyward” caliber superstar prospect that can almost make a system by himself, the talent pool is much deeper than it has been at any point in the past. It´s something that the new GM should use in terms of trading 2nd tier prospects for expensive major leaguers once there´s room in the payroll again a year from now.
And it should also help the Mets fill-out their major league roster with cheap homegrown players over the next several years vs. having to waste money on the Alex Coras and Gary Matthews juniors of the world.

Now, the top 20 prospect list beyond Flores & Harvey (and Mejia if he´s still eligible) is probably tough to rank.
However, there will be more legit candidates and then it´ll depend on taste.

In the Outfield alone, do you go with the upside of F-Mart or Puello ? The upper level production of Duda / Ratliff / Nieuwenhuis, the lower level production of Ceciliani or Vaughn ? Ranking these 7 outfield prospects alone won´t be easy. Neither in terms of Grades nor whether a Ceciliani is # 6 or # 16 on this list.

It´s certainly an interesting organization to keep a close eye on now and going forward.

Assuming a new GM who is deemed as “smart” - like Sandy Alderson - is hired this fall and has a nice 2011 draft, this farm could suddenly make a huge jump because of many prospects procured under the previous administration.

Of course, stuff like leaving the handling of Jenry Mejia to a manager battling for his job is something no GM should ever be willing to tolerate anymore. And players like F-Mart, Mejia, Familia or Flores should be left in the minors to develop and master a level before being jumped too quickly.

I agree with some of the above posters in that this is a deep system, though it looks like it lacks anyone who’s going to be a Top 25 prospect (this year, at least).

I think the graduations of Davis, Niese, Thole and even Parnell speak to how good of a job they’ve done recently in at least producing major-league quality players.

To improve the system, there are three things I’d like to see happen. I’d like to see them spend more money in the draft to improve the system further and perhaps get some high-ceiling guys in there.

I’d also like to see them resist the temptation to sign a Type-A or Type-B at least this offseason and perhaps next offseason too, which would allow them to keep their picks, as well as their money to sign them. I feel that they have alot of shuffling around to do at the major league level to figure out which pieces are going to fit where before they can reasonably go out and spend big money to add another piece. They major-league team isn’t terrible, but they’re probably not going to contend at least in 2011.

Finally, I’d like to see them excercise more patience with promoting players through the system. I feel they’re aggressive development philosophy has damaged players like Fernando Martinez (admittedly, the injuries would have damaged him enougb by themselves), Ruben Tejada and Carlos Gomez, just to name a few.

Not that my opinion holds any weight, or you guys care, but some prospects I just like for some reason or another, or I feel are perhaps being underrated, include: Lucas Duda, Mak Cohoon and Armando Rodriguez.

Some of their highly-regarded prospects I worry about not meeting expectations include: Kirk Nieuwenhuis (not enough glove for CF, not enough bat for a corner) and Reese Havens (injuries).

I think the Mets did a great job with Ike Davis, Josh Thole and Jon Niese. They all contributed to the big league team in a great way and seem to be great pieces for the future. However, thanks to Omar Minaya and his big daddy Jeff Wilpon, we have a reputation of being a complete bust-filled team. We also did a horrible job with Jenrry Mejia by starting with him in the majors as a relief pitcher for 2-3 months, even though he was projected as a top of the rotation starter. I think if the Mets can PROPERLY cultivate some of their pitching prospects like Harvey and Familia and keep the organization filled with solid, young players like Nieuwenhuis and have a strong draft, they are looking pretty well off for the forseeable future

I don’t see this team having many impact talents in both hitting and pitching. Mejia is still the crown jewel, if he survived the Manuel Experiment. there’s a lot more depth than outsiders realize, but just not enough to make an instant impact [ other than the graduated prospects]

but the top prospects in this club has a lot of warts: guys like Captain Kirk, Ratliff and Puello have talent and the tools but no clue of the strike zone (this plagues a LOT of the Mets hitting prospects); guys who throw hard but have little clue how to pitch (Mejia, Familia), and guys who are borderline finesse pitchers but know how to pitch (Cohoon, Gee, Carson). the Mejia’s and Familia’s of the world need to stay at one level at a time and develop secondary pitches. If they are rushed they will probably end up as Bobby Parnell types.

the Flores and Martes are a long way off from helping the big league club, but I do like the often overlooked prospects like Zach Lutz, Eric Campbell….they are similar to Lucas Duda and Nick Evans: good enough to play roles on a big league club.

at least there’s signs of life in this formerly barren system.

I like the hitting here a lot more than the pitching. Even on the hitting side, there’s maybe not quite enough high ceiling star talent there, but the depth of good hitters with solid tools is starting to get pretty good.

The Mets do seem to have developed something of a consistent organizational approach to developing hitters, which I think is beginning to bear some fruit. I’m not too sure of the details, but they seem to lean more to the Charlie Lau side rather than the Ted Williams side in their approach. They seem to draft and sign a lot of big strong athletes with power or power potential, and then seem to lately have been able to have a lot of these guys make adjustments to cut down on strikeouts, improve plate coverage, and plate discipline, and especially improve against breaking pitches. I see guys criticized at times, as far as being more line drive hitters, and people question whether the power will develop. But the power seems to be coming out more at upper levels.

The pitching is more a questionmark for me. There are a good number of guys who throw hard, but they all seem to be badly lacking in polish, pitchability, or secondary offerings. Then there are very low ceiling polish and pitchability guys, like Cohoon. I’d actually like to see the Mets get into the bidding on Barrett Loux. It’s not that I think Loux is anything that special, I think he should have been more like a late 1st round pick. But, I really don’t think the Mets really even have a guy in the system right now who really projects as a SP with both command and polish and three average or better pitches. You’ve got Harvey and Mejia obviously, both just a bit light on command. Then Gee who’s a bit light on the fastball.

My candidates for the book:

1. R 3B Wilmer Flores
2. R SP Matt Harvey
3. R RF Cesar Puello
4. L SP Juan Urbina
5. L OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
6. L 2B Reese Havens
7. R SP Jeurys Familia
8. R 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
9. L LF Lucas Duda
10. R RF Cory Vaughn
11. L CF Darrell Ceciliani
12. R 3B Zach Lutz
13. R 3B Jefry Marte
14. L RF Sean Ratliff
15. R SP Dillon Gee
16. L SP Stephen Matz
17. R CA Albert Cordero
18. R SP Brad Holt
19. R SP Kyle Allen
20. L SP Zach Dotson
21. R SP Erik Goeddel
22. L SP Rob Carson
23. L SS Jordany Valdespin
24. R SS Robbie Shields
25. R 3B Brian Harrison
26. R SP Akeel Morris
27. R 3B Eric Campbell
28. L OF Matt Den Dekker
29. R SS Wilfredo Tovar
30. R OF Juan Lagares
31. R LF Vicente Lupo
32. R 2B Justin Turner
33. R CA Blake Forsythe
34. R 2B Josh Satin
35. R SP Greg Peavey
36. L RP Eric Niesen
37. R CA Kai Gronauer
38. L SP Mark Cohoon
39. R RP Josh Stinson
40. R RP Ryan Fraser

I guess John won’t include Lupo though, since he usually waits on the international guys until they debut, but I thought I’d put him in there. Lots of maybe interesting pitching I left off, including Carr, Rustich, Moore, Armando Rodriguez, Yohane Almonte, Beaulac, Fuller, Tapia, Cuan, and Moviel. On the hitting side, there’s Javier Rodriguez, Rafael Fernandez, Nelfi Zapata, Francisco Pena, and Pedro Zapata.

I’d rank them bottom 5.. maybe bottom 8