I prefer to focus on his AA numbers against righties.

Or Smoak’s AA numbers against lefties: .196/.268/.314.

Luck and park adjusted slash line in AA per minorleaguesplits.com.

Yes, the k rate is somewhat of a concern. His k rate does get mentioned, but maybe more on amazinavenue than here.

Still, a .245 iso adjusted for luck and park somewhat? Although even that leaves him with a .351 babip. But Anderson’s babip last year was .430ish in AA.

But there was a back injury he played through early in the year and then some hamstring problems later. Im not sure this wasnt more mental than injuries, though. IMHO, he lack of power early on probably had to do with the back, and then he lost his confidence and his swing.

He was hitting .272 with 8 HRs on July 19 and then went completely in the toilet.

As Ive said before, too, he’s a very sensitive kid who takes things hard. If youve read an interview with him he sounds like a super nice, super sensitive, very bright kid. I dont think he was comfortable or ready for the hype surrounding him this year and it really bothered him and messed him up. That by itself is a negative portent for a prospect, of course, but for me it makes his numbers this year less worrisome long term.

Hype like the fact Baseball America named the 21-year-old, left-handed hitter Boston’s top prospect and that the Red Sox named him their 2008 Minor League Offensive Player of the Year - after he hit a combined .317 with 18 home runs and 80 RBI between Class-A Lancaster and Double-A Portland.

“I really dislike all of that stuff,” Anderson said with a face that could have melted ice. "It’s made me more of a recluse, which I don’t know if that’s the right word. I don’t think I embrace that kind of stuff as much as other people. I don’t really think its accurate stuff.

http://firebrandal.com/2009/08/16/lars-anderson-struggles-part-of-development.html

At the Red Sox exclusive rookie development camp in January, Anderson was mobbed on media day. In the region known as Red Sox Nation, it was impossible for Anderson to be just another player.

And he hated it.

“It’s probably not my favorite aspect to this gig,” Anderson said of the attention.

“(The ranking) is so arbitrary and subjective … something cool for the fans to read.

“Those rankings just don’t make a ton of sense to me. Someone wants to talk to you because of some number in a magazine.”

It all got dizzying for the usually easygoing Anderson.

“I don’t know if I was really ready for the non-baseball side of it, the external pressure and the expectations,” he said. "In the beginning, I was almost rejecting that, pushing that away. Everything was moving too quickly for me.

“My thinking wasn’t right. I was very negative. It was tension and I didn’t want it.”

Compare that with Anderson’s thought process in 2008 when he was tearing it up: “It was really simple, easy, really comfortable.”

Anderson is searching for positives. He’s had to learn to deal with expectations. He’s learned more about himself in the process.

“I feel refreshed,” he said. "I’ve experienced a lot this year, a lot of stuff I haven’t experienced before. I think I’m going to be super grateful for it when I look back on it.

“Learning how to approach success and failure – I have some tools now that I don’t know I would have discovered if I had not gone through this. It’s been a bumpy road, but I have a lot of clarity now.”

Anderson said the Red Sox have been patient with him: “The organization has a pretty good understanding that we all develop differently.”

`http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=281714&ac=PHspt

Im still optimistic on him, and it would take very little for me to jump on the bandwagon in 2010. Everything we liked about him before this year was still there in his components, too.

I think I posted this Jim Callis quote from July 28th before, but here it is again:

Q: Two guys from your preseason Top 100 Prospects list have me plenty stumped: Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas.(ranked No. 13) and Red Sox first baseman Lars Anderson (No. 17). Moustakas looks like he has lost control of the strike zone and seems to be on a treadmill. Anderson not only seems to have forgotten how to go deep, but how to actually hit. What happened to these guys?

A:I still have a lot of faith in both Moustakas and Anderson. Neither is savaging pitchers like they did last season—Moustakas is hitting .247/.284/.411 at high Class A Wilmington, and Anderson is batting .259/.349/.390 in Double-A Portland—but both are young for their levels and they’re still two of the best hitting prospects in the minors…

…Anderson, 21, seemed poised for a big season at Portland after hitting .316/.436/.526 there in the last six weeks of 2008, but he hasn’t homered since June 28. His walk totals (46 in 89 games, compared to 29 in 41 Double-A games last year) may not indicate it, but he has been pitched around a lot more in his second tour of the Eastern League. He too has struggled to find a balance in between being too aggressive and too passive. Anderson has admitted to losing his confidence at times. He has plenty of raw power, and he’ll show more of it in games once he turns on pitches more consistently. He also has had a tough time solving lefthanders since arriving in Double-A.

Moustakas and Anderson are both well ahead of the development curve and have plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments. My biggest concern about either of them is that I’m not convinced that Moustakas will have enough range to stay at third base. But I’m not at the point where I’m worrying about their bats.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/268612.html

He’s also still only 21 and was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League this year.

So, made my case on Lars again. Totally understand why people might be skeptical. We’ll see. i dont usually do this, fwiw. I wasnt a big Pedroia fan, or Youkilis for that matter. Didnt see stardom in either of them. Ive always been big on Buchholz, but I was down on Lester after the Cancer. My approach with Sox prospects is typically to temper my enthusiasm… I just really feel its not time to give up on Lars. There is a lot to like here. .300 AVG/.400 OBP 20 HR 1B is very realistic, IMHO. He has a great approach, a lot of raw (not game yet) power, no platoon problems until this year and phenomenal contact ability for a big guy. Guess we’ll see.

Jennings skills look like they should easily transfer to the majors. The only negatives are that he doesn’t play plus defense he’d need to be a great CF, and he’s not going to hit enough HR to be an elite COF. In a fantasy league, the guy’s an A. in real life, he probably falls just short.

Andrew McCutchen, but he could still be a pretty exciting player who is good at about everything. I’d give him an A.

but fielding is kinda half of the game

Though its super nitpicking.

He’s not super patient, and I worry that many of his walks are guys pitching around him b/c of his reputation and impressive power. Ive been burnt by this before on prospects.

Would his numbers in a vacuum without ARL be worthy of an A grade or an A-? I might say A-. Usually John doesnt give out full A’s to guys who havent yet raked at the higher levels (albeit ~170 excellent ABs at AAA). Especially 1B prospects. Usually ARL doesnt cut it for an A grade, and I think that’s a good part of what excites me about Montero… but then again, Montero is obviously a special case with Superstar upside…

I dont know… Id probably give him an A. I have a couple questions about him and I dont know if he’s the slam dunk, I know exactly what kind of player this guy is type that usually gets an A… but he’s going to be a top 5 prospect for me, so he’s gotta get an A. Yeah… definite A. Sorry for the stream of consciousness approach.

He ranks them separately, here at least.

When you go through the Seven Skills, Hosmer looks like a decent bet to be at least above-average in six of them. That’s an awfully nice package.

I’m leaning towards B for Moustakas at the moment. He didn’t get better in any way this year and he went backwards in some ways. His upside is obvious (I think BA still graded him as a future 70/70 contact/power guy, which is a pretty ballsy projection for anybody, even a guy two years removed from being the #2 pick in the draft, hitting for a .730 OPS in A ball) but plate discipline this bad is troubling.

I know that was the concern. I don’t know. he has to face the Phils, Utley, Howard, Ibanez all lefty power, Werth. The Nats hitting wasn’t awful this year. The Mets were weak this year.

Hellboy will certainly have to face better hitters regularly, but I take that into consideration. Who he faces I don’t care. It’s his relative performance. His homer rate last year certainly scared me. But he has really turned it on.

Round Rock is right next to Austin. So you could watch their AA matchup pretty easily.

Though your point about Texas being a huge state is correct. I live in Abilene and to go anywhere else worth a damn it takes at least 2 and a half hours.

I was just citing reasons why BA wouldn’t be big on him. Of course, they also talk to scouts from that league, and obviously they’re going to ask about a guy with a 1.000+ OPS . . .could it be that the scouts see a decent hitter with good polish just beating up on a league that he’s too advanced for?

If he’s among the top 15 as a corner outfielder in A ball, then basically you’re saying he projects to be something like a plus-plus hitter for both contact and power at the major league level. Are you THAT bullish on him?

That is what I suggested and that is not a bad hitter for a catcher.

Molina is 11th of 24 catchers in the majors with 300 PAs or more in wOBA at .332.

Last year he was 12th out of 29 with 300 PA or more witha wOBA of .323.

Molina is only 27. catchers develop later as hitters is a common wisdom, which i haven’t researched, but I always use Mike Stanley as an example (right before they start to decline physcially unfortunately).

But Molina is evidently about the 12th or so best hitting regular catchers in baseball, he is in the 10-15 range 2 years in a row.

His walk rate is 10% this year. His strikeout rate is 7.6%, which is the lowest of any catcher. last year his k rate was sub 7%.

Thole’s AA walk and k rates: 9.9%/8.9%.

I don’t think Yadi Molina isa borderline hitter, although perhaps you meant since Thole’s fielding is not advertised as great (he had a decent catcher caught stealing rate this year, fwiw), if all he has to go on is the hitting, and that is BA dependent…well, he may be borderline. But i think he will be good enough on both counts to eventually be among the top 10-15 catchers overall. Not a star maybe but solidly above replacement. And he could bust out for some bigger years. He did hit 5 homers and ISO .127 in FSL the year before at age 21.

Travis Snider light(no not his weight, but his hitting ability).

His command was really solid in High-A (2.9 BB/9) and only spiked after he got to Double-A. Considering he’s only 19, I’m willing to assume that it had more to do with facing competition four years older than him than any actual control problem.

I think he’s a B

Beckham B
Moore B
Brignac B-

The Phillies’ discount. He’s at .308/.383/.521 adjusted in AA and AAA. He’s not old, but 23. He’s been good last 2 years across all lvels.

That I’m willing to kind of give him a pass.

But his numbers neutralized for park and luck, are still an extremely respectable .285/.368/.526/.894.

I think the average is pretty fluky, but he does have discipline and some pop. I think he gets dissed a bit for having spent two years at each level of A ball, but not really that bad. He gets praise for his makeup and headiness, and if you think about it, 2009 would have been either his senior season at Texas or his first full year of pro ball out of college.

He’s still a guy I really won’t get TOO excited about until he can do something in AA, but given the way Thomas Neal gets talked up around herel, you’d think Clemens and his superior OPS would get more attention.