Cincinnati Reds Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 24, 2025 12:41 PM EDT
40 comments
Cincinnati Reds Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
This list was originally published December 6, 2025. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.
1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Hitting .303/.383/.497 for Class A Sarasota, now back in action after missing time with injury. Hit .246/.309/.377 in 16 Double-A games before getting hurt. Still questions about his ability to hit lefties.
2) Todd Frazier, INF, Grade B: Hit .290/.350/.481 for Double-A Carolina, promoted to Triple-A a couple of days ago. Fine season. Still not sure where he fits with the glove, has played left this year.
3) Chris Valaika, SS, Grade B: Hitting .227/.265/.342 for Triple-A Louisville, well below his previous standards. Problems with plate discipline have hampered him.
4) Neftali Soto, 3B, Grade B: Hitting .246/.280/.359 for Class A Sarasota, hitting 11 homers but production overall has been weak due to strike zone issues.
5) Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-: Hit .268/.353/.360 with 46 steals for Triple-A Louisville, recently promoted to the majors. Speed and defense look terrific, but hasn't tapped into his power and may never do so.
6) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade B-: 2.57 ERA with 32/6 K/BB in 28 innings in Triple-A, 12 saves. 4.09 ERA with 21/10 K/BB in 22 innings in the majors. I like him a lot and I think he's going to have a very good bullpen career.
7) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B-: Traded to Toronto. 1.69 ER A with 82/28 K/BB in 96 innings for four different teams this year, maintaining good pitching at the higher levels. Looks like a bullpen force.
8) Kyle Lotzkar of the Hill People, RHP, Grade B-: Out with an elbow injury all year.
9) Daryl Thompson, RHP, Grade C+: 6.59 ERA with 8/7 K/BB in 29 innings in Triple-A, has been injured most of the season.
10) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .281/.317/./501 in Double-A, .405/.410/.757 in nine Triple-A games. He has strike zone problems but lots of power.
11) Ramon Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.10 ERA with 78/50 K/BB in 125 innings, 122 hits in Triple-A. I don't like the deterioration in his ratios compared to 2008; his strikeout rate is way down.
12) Chris Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .277/.373/.375 for the Reds with 11 steals. A competent fourth outfielder.
13) Matt Maloney, LHP, Grade C+: 6.08 ERA with 125/24 K/BB in 143 innings, 143 hits allowed in Triple-A. I continue to believe that Maloney could be a decent fourth/fifth starter if someone gave him enough time to adjust.
14) Chris Heisey, OF, Grade C+: Hit .347/.426/.572 in Double-A, .271/.310/.442 in Triple-A, has stolen 18 bases in 20 attempts. Intriguing combination of production across the board.
15) Sean Henry, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .264/.329/.402 with 10 homers, 20 steals in Double-A. Toolsy, if undersized at 5-10.
16) Dan Dorn, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .278/.339/.461 with 13 homers in Triple-A. Strong platoon split, .299/.362/.478 against RHP, just .197/.239/.394 against LHP.
17) Dallas Buck, RHP, Grade C+: 4.82 ERA with 25/18 K/BB in 37 innings in Double-A, on the DL since late June.
18) Robert Manuel, RHP, Grade C+: Traded to Seattle. 2.97 ERA with 46/14 K/BB in 58 innings in Triple-A this year, 45 hits allowed. Scouts don't like his stuff but he always pitches well.
19) Carlos Fisher, RHP, Grade C: 3.16 ERA with 40/25 K/BB in 43 major league innings. A perfectly competent reliever.
20) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C: .262/.309/.427 in 27 games for Billings in the Pioneer League. Raw, has strike zone issues.
21) Juan Duran, OF, Grade C: .173/.218/.296 with horrible strike zone judgment in rookie ball. This is why I tend to be skeptical about Latin signees with glowing scouting reports and big bonuses until they actually play.
I think the Reds have a pretty decent farm system. There have been some disappointments, and I'm not sure yet how they are going to fit Alonso and Frazier into the lineup in the medium and long runs, but they have material to work with. They could use additional arms, and the 2009 draft took some good steps in that direction with Mike Leake, Brad Boxberger, and Donnie Joseph all capable of advancing quickly. They seem to like the toolsy Latin hitters with power potential but poor strike zone judgment.
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Francisco
I’m surprised you didn’t mention his Defense. He led the league in AA in errors. He looks like a classic bound for the AL DH role guy.
Heisey looked great every time I saw the Mudcats. Very good strike zone judgment, good defense. Reminds me a little of Chase Utley in that he never seems to leave a base on the field (at least from what I saw).
by Cormican on Aug 24, 2025 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yorman
I have heard that his strikezone judgement is decent. So far he would be on pace for a 53 walk season which is pretty amazing when you take his age and background into context. Domincan players are taught very young that ‘you don’t walk off the island’.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 24, 2025 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yorman is Venezuelan
So he didn’t walk or hit off an island.
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by dougdirt on Aug 24, 2025 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My bad
But the reason behind it remains the same. Young kids from the islands are told to hit if they want to get signed.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 24, 2025 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Venezuela isn't an island
I have difficulty believing that this is especially true for Latin America generally, anyway, because it seems like there are quite a few players who are signed for their defensive abilities or speed, or something other than their ability to hit.
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by OldProspects on Aug 24, 2025 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope the head of the National Geographic Society isn't a minorleagueball reader
because I’m pretty sure he would just go off and die in quiet despair after reading this thread… :p
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 24, 2025 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey John, thanks for another great recap....
I have a couple of names I am wondering about for next season….Juan Carlos Sulbaran and Tyler Cline. Could you see them in the top 20 next year, and if so, where would they be? Thanks again!
by soccerman0 on Aug 24, 2025 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
GET IN FRONT OF THE BALL DORN!!!
He must get that a lot.
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by RoyalsRetro on Aug 24, 2025 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mesaroco
what happened to the high school catcher
by daman316 on Aug 24, 2025 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wrong and wrong
Devin didn’t get fat. As for his bat, its doing plenty fine. He doesn’t have a glaring contact problem, walks half as much as he strikes out and has an above average isolated power for the league despite being on the younger end of the curve for the league. His BABIP is a little low and its bringing down his total line.
Mesoraco started off the season 2 of 32 at throwing out attempted base stealers. Since then he has thrown out nearly 50% of the runners against him (47% of 47 runners since).
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by dougdirt on Aug 24, 2025 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I heard he got fat
Goldstein:
Here’s a nice exchange with a scout about Devin Mesoraco that I had for the Reds list:
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Mesoraco has put on a considerable amount of bad weight since his high school days, and it slowed nearly every part of his game.
And he has definitely hit like a girl. Career OPS: .679. 2009 OPS: .692. I’m glad he’s throwing out baserunners though.
by aCone419 on Aug 25, 2025 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2008, 19 years old
low-A
7.5% xbh/ab
6.5% bb/ab
3.2 k/bb
2009, 20 years old
advanced-A
9.9% xbh/ab
11.2% bb/ab
2.2 k/bb
Improvement in 1 year is not a trend, but it is a step in the right direction. It will be interesting to see whether the Reds brass has him repeat a level or start the year in AA next year.
by GregD on Aug 25, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
K/BB is kind of a strange stat to use for hitters
It’s certainly nice that his walk rate rose, but his strikeout rate is still high for somebody with only decent power, and for it to go up isn’t a very positive sign
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by OldProspects on Aug 25, 2025 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein was wrong
I don’t know how else to say it. Mesoraco certainly wasn’t ripped or anything last year, but dude surely wasn’t anything close to fat. He just didn’t have an ‘adult’ body.
This picture was taken in May of 2008 of Devin.
This one was taken in August 2008 of Devin
This one was taken in April 2009 of Devin
This one was taken in July of 2009 of Devin
In all of those pictures nothing resembles Devin being fat, at all. Perhaps he put on some weight, but he surely wasn’t fat and he surely isn’t being affected by it this year. All the reports I have this year on him are pretty good.
As for hitting like a girl, stop looking at the end result and look at how he got there. High line drive rate, good power (isolated power), strong walk rate and an average strikeout rate. Those are things that will be much more likely to go forward with him, those skills. Not his slash line.
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by dougdirt on Aug 25, 2025 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously I don't mean John Kruk fat
Fat just being a euphemism for unathletic/doughy/what-have-you. If he has improved his physique, more power to him. I can’t really tell anything from that second picture you posted, and it looks like you tried to post two more that didn’t load.
Minor league LD rate is meaningless. His BB% and ISO are averagish at ~10% and .154 respectively (MLB avgs: 9.1% and .157). He is K’ing in 1/4 of his ABs, which is hardly a selling point. Looks like the A+ version of George Kottaras.
He has the potential to improve, but I stand by my statement that he has hit like a girl.
by aCone419 on Aug 25, 2025 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree to disagree
His walk rate isn’t average ish. Don’t compare him to major leaguers. He isn’t there yet. He is 20/21 this year. His walk rate is above average. His isoP is at .154 in the FSL as a young catcher. Thats above average. His strikeout rate isn’t concerning, and really I don’t care about K/AB, I care about K/PA which is around 1/5. There is a difference between hitting like a girl - see Taveras, Willy - and what Mesoraco is doing.
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by dougdirt on Aug 25, 2025 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walking
10% of the time at Mesoraco’s age in the FSL is pretty decent. That said, I wouldn’t exactly say he’s got a projectable build. If he looks like this as a 20-year-old he’s probably not going to be in the same dictionary as svelte or athletic by the time he hits the bigs. Weight is a potential issue rather than a current one imo, but it is an issue, even for a catcher.
aCone, Kottaras had a 12.7% walk rate and 15.2% whiff rate at Lake Elsinore. He was also a year older for the level. Seems like a pretty facile comp. Are you basing it on eyeballing XBHs or something?
by blackoutyears on Aug 26, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was basing it on what Kottaras did this year.
My meaning being, Mesoraco is to the FSL what George Kottaras is to MLB. A catcher with a decent BB% and ISO, but who strikes out a bit much and, overall, hits like a girl.
Reading what I wrote, I could have been clearer on that point.
by aCone419 on Aug 27, 2025 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha
Doug’s going to remember that hits like a girl comment, you know. You’re a marked man! LOL
by blackoutyears on Aug 27, 2025 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Travis Wood
what and where will he rank after a breakout 2009?
by richieabernathy on Aug 24, 2025 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hes number 1 for sure
who can even challenge him??
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wood vs. Frazier
IMHO, Wood and Frazier are vying for the #1 & #2 spots in an offseason top prospects list in the Reds system.
by GregD on Aug 25, 2025 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Travis Wood
has a fastball that touches 90 MPH. I like the kid, but there is absolutely no way that he is in the Reds Top 5, much less pushing for #1. He is a good prospect, but he isn’t a world beater type.
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by dougdirt on Aug 25, 2025 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who in the reds system is a world beater type that ranks ahead of him then??
by matthewmafa on Aug 25, 2025 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not tough
Alonso, Leake, Frazier, Yorman Rodriguez, Drew Stubbs (until he loses his prospect status) are all without question ahead of him in my mind. Then there are some guys like Heisey, Boxberger, Billy Hamilton, Juan Francisco all in the argument with Wood to fall somewhere after that. There certainly isn’t a world beater in the entire group, but everyone in the Top 5 has something really working for them that Travis Wood doesn’t. More than one above average tool.
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by dougdirt on Aug 25, 2025 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so how is wood doing so well this year?
by matthewmafa on Aug 25, 2025 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skill and luck
Don’t get me wrong, he has stuff working for him. He has a plus change up and his curveball has really improved. Guys who top out at 90/91, even as lefties just aren’t top prospects. He is still inconsistent at throwing strikes as well. He has the stuff to be a good #3 pitcher, but that is likely his ceiling as a major leaguer. Good prospect, but not a great one.
www.redsminorleagues.com
www.FirstInning.com
by dougdirt on Aug 26, 2025 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who is a good comparison for him?
JA Happ??
they are both overachieving with same kind of stuff
by matthewmafa on Aug 26, 2025 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Fellhauer
He’s the man to watch from their draft outside of the early guys. Off to a great start in the Midwest League with even splits. A lot to like with their draft in general. If only Juan Silva could hit lefties…
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by Andy Seiler on Aug 24, 2025 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Frazier
has been playing 2B, 3B, as well as LF. I think he profiles more as a 3B for the future Reds than anywhere as that is where they’ll have an opening. Now, if only they could find a competent SS. I like Arroyo for Brignac and change as a WW deal???
by Havok1517 on Aug 24, 2025 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Reds see him as a 2B
I’ve heard good things about his defense (not plus, but overall solid), being a SS originally, so i bet he’d be a real good 2B coupled with his offensive potential.
I also think this because I see the Reds retaining rolen after next year because some of the quotes from Rolen after the trade made me believe he wants to be close to home for the rest of his career. Most likely the Reds sign him for slightly more than he’s worth after next season…or a lot more than he’s worth, which is probably a more likely scenario.
by sharks on Aug 27, 2025 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or less then hes worth
so he can stay close to home as you said
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2025 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Callis specifically said that he thinks Frazier could handle 3B but not 2B in his ESPN chat. He didn’t really expand on why. I wouldn’t be surprised if Frazier hung around in Louisville for much of 2010 waiting to see how the Rolen situation shakes out (signed through next year) and playing his usual three positions. LF is still considered the most likely destination for Votto if/when Alonso is ready to man 1B in the bigs, so that may have an impact on that as a long term destination. You’re not the only one hoping Frazier can play 2B, as the logical implication is Phillips moving over to SS and erasing what’s been a black hole at the plate out of that spot. If, as you say, they re-sign Rolen, that gives them a very good hitting INF.
The question to Callis was interesting as the person asking it referred to Fraze as a potential poor man’s Chase Utley, a phrase I’ve used a couple of times myself. Dare to dream.
Love the avatar btw. Boondocks rules.
by blackoutyears on Aug 27, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
poor man's Chase Utley
I like the sound of that a lot.
Will be interesting to see if they move Phillips, I have my doubts, I think it’s more likely they trade him.
yeah, boondocks is awesome, heard they have another season in the works.
by sharks on Aug 27, 2025 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phillips
Should have been traded a year ago. The perils of considering your team to be a contender. Ask Ricciardi about that syndrome. And yes, new Boondocks coming soon. I need to see if there’s an Uncle Ruckus t-shirt out there…
by blackoutyears on Aug 28, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stubbs
Just don’t get the way they’ve developed him. I saw that dude hit some absolute bombs at Texas. He has power, and not just a little. People compare CF prospects to Mike Cameron all the time, but this is the one guy who I actually bought it. Same tools. All that tinkering they did with his swing and setup doesn’t appear to have done anything but sap his power (maybe increase his LD%). 10 home runs in about 900 at-bats since they messed with him, all to save a few strickouts. Lame.
by AgitationStation on Aug 24, 2025 10:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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