Community Projection: Fernando Martinez
by John Sickels on Mar 24, 2026 8:00 PM EDT
20 comments
Very interesting conversations ongoing in the Jason Heyward Community Projection thread. I'll tally up the results Friday. In the meantime, here is another young player from the NL East sure to generate some intriguing projections as well as discussion: Fernando Martinez.
As with Heyward, project the following numbers for Martinez
Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
Doubles
Triples
Homers
Walks
Strikeouts
Steals
Caught Stealing
Batting average (make sure numbers are right)
I will calculate OBP and SLG for you.
Whether he makes the major league roster out of spring training or not will naturally be reflected in the number of at-bats and games you project. You might also consider the injury factor given Martinez' history of health issues.
0 recs |
20 comments
| Add comment
Email
Print
Comments
G- 153
AB- 652
R- 99
H- 182
2B- 32
3B- 5
HR- 19
BB- 65
SO- 100
S- 28
CS- 6
AVG.- .279
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Mar 24, 2026 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SB*- 28
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Mar 24, 2026 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
This is…um…EXTRAORDINARILY optimistic. Almost 750 PAs? I would be happy if Martinez had this season 3 years from now. He still wouldn’t have 750 PAs, though.
by pooptallica on Mar 24, 2026 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I’m thinking that was another typo on his part and he meant 552 at-bats.
Two other interesting things about this projection:
Has him stealing 28 bases, Martinez has stolen 21 bases total in his 1300 PA career.
Has him taking 65 walks, Martinez has 85 walks in his career.
by bigboy1234 on Mar 24, 2026 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so basically what you're trying to say is
The poster in question probably has never even heard of Fernando Martinez?
If that’s not what you’re saying, I’m perfectly willing to do so.
by mrkupe on Mar 25, 2025 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
umm
I’d be curious how he gets more than 300ab in the majors this year, don’t see it happening.
by hybrid on Mar 25, 2025 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish this youngster was around any training staff but the Mets
Games 100
At-bats 436
Runs 56
Hits 117
Doubles 21
Triples 3
Homers 12
Walks 31
Strikeouts 109
Steals 7
Caught Stealing 3
Batting average .268
I like Fernando long term but believe his transition will be a little harder then most top prospects due to the fact of his limited pro at bats.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Mar 24, 2026 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can he experience a breakout season like a Carlos Gonzalez?
I would projection generally solid, but unspectacular numbers with potential to do better for Martinez.
Games 118
At-bats 365
Runs 43
Hits 102
Doubles 25
Triples 4
Homers 16
Walks 35
Strikeouts 76
Steals 8
Caught Stealing 3
Batting average .279
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
by BBFan1 on Mar 25, 2025 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fingers crossed for September only
He needs a full year of AAA, in spite of his spectacular spring.
Games - 18
At-bats - 44
Runs - 10
Hits - 12
Doubles - 3
Triples - 0
Homers - 3
Walks - 4
Strikeouts - 10
Steals - 1
Caught Stealing - 1
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) - .273
by pooptallica on Mar 25, 2025 3:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2010, this assumes injuries to the entire Mets outfield
Games – 70
At-bats – 130
Runs – 17
Hits – 33
Doubles – 8
Triples – 0
Homers – 5
Walks – 5
Strikeouts – 20
Steals – 3
Caught Stealing – 1
Batting average- .253
I doubt Fernando Martinez will be that effective for awhile, but he might have a decent third full season in the majors * if he’s healthy!*
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Mar 25, 2025 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This assume's he's not BABIP ready
The only problem with it is a .250ish BABIP. He’s never been a low BABIP guy in the minors. If that number is .270 or even .300, its very adequate offensive production. Walk rate is still very low obviously, but that has to be expected for now. I also think assuming 0 Triples might be misleading, CitiField is a Triples haven and he runs pretty well. Turn a couple of those doubles into triples and its an ISO over .180 (its just a tad under as is). The strikeout rate looks about right. If just four more balls in play fall in for singles, that’s about a .285 / .315 / .465 line, not eye popping but very solid for a 21 year old rookie outfielder.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 25, 2025 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
I had him with a .250ish average at first but then I realized that his babip would be low. Of course over 100+ at bats that could be, but then I figured closer to .300 would be about right.
by wobatus on Mar 26, 2025 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
G 35
AB 110
R 14
H 30
2b 6
3b 1
HR 5
BB 8
K 21
SB 2
CS 1
BA .272
by wobatus on Mar 25, 2025 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
28 games
108 AB
14 R
32 H
7 2B
2 3B
5 HR
9 BB
22 K
1 SB
0 CS
BA .296
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Mar 25, 2025 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mark did you read my captions?
I said IF HE’S HEALTHY and this assumes injuries to the entire Mets outfield…
I projected limited playing time for Fernando in 2010, and a few PAs here and there. I was also basing his 2010 limited action numbers on his 2009 limited action numbers. .171 in 2009 to.253 in 2010 is still a reasonable assumption and large improvement!
I am astounded by the optimism flowing here, I just don’t think he’s that good, or even a decent player just yet.
285 / .315 / .465 —really? WoW that’s expecting a lot for a guy who’s never played 100 minor league games….
If Fernando PLAYS A FULL season, I don’t project more than a .270 BA, 15 HR, and that’s more than ok for a 21 year old.
And, I don’t think he’s ready, I he needs a full season of Triple-A and then some.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Mar 25, 2025 8:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the thing is
your line would almost get him there if the babip was more normalized. That’s pretty much all he is saying. Power and a low k rate, which your line does reflect already to a degree.
by wobatus on Mar 26, 2025 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't so much disagreeing with the idea that he's not ready
Or that he needs to stay healthy, just that I don’t think that a .250 BABIP is necessarily the reason to expect him to put up poor numbers. Again, add four more singles to exactly your projections and it comes out to roughly that line, its not my projection, its yours plus four singles (which would be about a .270-.280 BABIP). I wasn’t making a projection, I was critiquing the details of yours.
If anything, I’d expect his K% to tick up if you want to expect a low average, though he’s done a pretty good job putting the ball in play this spring, and he even did a decent job in his callup last year, his BABIP was below .200 though.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 26, 2025 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Up and down twice due to injury, to stay and start in mid-August when Mets out of contention
Games- 83
At-bats- 235
Runs- 24
Hits- 56
Doubles- 12
Triples- 3
Homers- 7
Walks- 16
Strikeouts- 58
Steals- 4
Caught Stealing- 1
Batting average- .238
I will calculate OBP and SLG for you.
Add 34RBI’s
by dlpme77 on Mar 25, 2025 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Martinez
Games 80
At-bats 242
Runs 22
Hits 67
Doubles 15
Triples 2
Homers 4
Walks 22
Strikeouts 63
Steals 6
Caught Stealing 3
Batting average .277
OBP .337
SLG .421
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Mar 26, 2025 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
On Facebook? Use Connect to join SB Nation. Share insights with fans and friends.- » Create a new SB Nation account
- » Already registered with SB Nation? Log in!
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
MLB -- FanHouse
- Ruthless Red Sox Pursue Perfect Balance
- Boston Red Sox 2010 Primer
- Scouting Notes: Heathcott Leads Yankees' Promising Hitting Prospects
- Matt Wieters Catching On Quick With O's
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
