Top 50 Prospects with NO MLB experience. I figured I'd get into the action.

I like this better because it gets names flowing back and forth.  Having Matt Welters, McCutchen, and F-Mart a top a list has been the same for several years.  Not that I believe these players aren’t prospects, I’m just looking for fresh names to generate conversation.

I obviously missed people. But let me know what you think and I'll try and make adjustments and answer questions. I hope the blurbs help with the rationale. I mostly use Fangraphs, FI, MiLB.com, and Splits.

Also, I want to apologize for any grammar/spelling//anything that looks weird. I did this pretty quickly.

If anyone wants more detailed conversation you can reach me at J.D.Sussman@gmail.com.

1. Jason Heyward – This kills me as a Mets fan, but this guy is the complete package. Offensively he will hit for more power as he gets older (which is scary), and I haven’t heard a single negative thing about his defense. Only positive.
2. Jesus Montero – No, he isn’t a catcher. But he has the best bat in the minors. He is tearing up AA at 19.
3. Jarrod Parker – Great fastball and two other plus offerings make him my top pitcher. The walks have been up in AA, but he should settle those back down.
4. Madison Bumgarner – Like parker, the strikes outs are down, and the walks are up in AA. He does have some regressing to do with his great strand rate and career HR/9 rate.  I do worry about his secondary offering, but all reports are that it has improved.
5. Chris Tillman – In my opinion, he is a larger version of Parker with 3 plus offerings.  Born in the same year as Bumgarner and Parker, he is already in AAA. His walk rate is down and he is still striking out over a better an inning.
6. Justin Smoak – Smoak is probably the most polished player in the minor leagues, he is a great hitter and fielder. The Rangers were very lucky he dropped to them in the draft.  He is already in AAA after dominating AA walking more times than he struck out (39 to 35).
7. Carlos Santana – As you can see in the MLB a good hitting back stop is tough to come by. Santana has great athleticism, and will be a good MLB back stop. Clearly, he can crush the ball as well. He has huge power, and very underrated plate discipline (His BB:SO is 58:42).
8. Mat Latos – Latos has really came into his own this season posting great numbers in both A and AA. His FIP stands at 2.06 in AA and while his HR rate will certainly change that once a few go out of the park, he has been dominate. There are some injury concerns, but no one will complain about a 4.33 K/BB ratio.
9. Brian Matusz – Like Latos, Matusz has been dominating this year. His walk rate is slightly higher than I expected for him based on the reports I heard. However they aren’t anything to worry about, just higher than expected. Also higher than expect is his strikeout rate.  Matusz has stuck out an impressive 96 batters in 85 IP. With great control and several plus pitches Matsuz could make an impact next season.
10. Buster Posey – I’ve heard good things about his defense behind the plate, but I’m honestly not sure I’ve heard enough to say anything on way or another about it. His bat is another story. He has raked this season posting a 425 wOBA in A+ ball. I’m excited to see what he’ll do at the next level.
11. Mike Stanton – Although he has hit a rough patch in AA, one can’t forget the 430 wOBA he put up in 750 PA before reaching AA (starting last season).  It has only been 100 AB in AA, so it isn’t concern yet.
12. Pedro Alvarez – Yes, thus far he has been disappointing, but his huge potential is still there, and I have faith he will figure things out. He needs to cut down the strike outs. Even scarier than the SO rate is the LD rate. I don’t know if that will regress to the mean, or mean his demise, but 8% at Lynchburg is awful. With that said, his power is still at the top of the minor league food chain.
13. Jhoulys Chacin – I love the way the Rockies are challenging him while at the same time letting him get comfortable at each level. I’m hoping they leave him in AA all year. While he doesn’t miss bats at the elite level, he isn’t a slouch. He’ll get groundballs and miss bats enough to make him a very solid number two starter in Colorado that is a difficult task.
14. Logan Morrison – Although he missed a lot of time early in the year, he is doing fantastic at AA hitting 5 HR in just under 100 AB and walking more than he is SO.  He seems to have great bat control and has a 400 wOBA despite a lowish (but not too low) BABIP. To me, he is a very safe bet to be a successful hitter at the major league level.
15. Chris Carter – You’ll notice a slew (3) 1B prospects in the next several spots. I wrote about Carter briefly the other day. While the SO are a concern, his power is real.
16. Lars Anderson – He has had his fair share of struggles in AA, but is still very young (and a HUGE 6-5). He’ll put it together, but I’d like to see his walk rate and ISO creep back up.
17. Josh Vitters – His walk rate is non-existent, but his pedigree and 50 point jump in SO (15 HR this season) make him a great prospect. From what I hear, staying at 3B isn’t a problem. I like that his SO rate has dropped, but he needs to walk more, for now, I’ll chalk that up to lack of experience and youth.
18. Neftali Feliz – While his stock has dropped in the eyes of many, I never had him THAT high to begin with. Everyone on these lists are in the top 1% of players or something like that… Anyway, he still throws as hard as anyone, and the worst case scenario is that he ends up as a dominate relief pitcher. However, I have higher hopes.
19. Brett Lawrie - As a 2B Lawrie in a good spot, if he moves to the OF, he probably falls in the 35 range for me. He has good power, a nice ISO, and a very respectable BB rate. The position will determine his future, because he'll need more power at a corner outfield spot.  He certainly doesn't need power per today's numbers. I'm not sure how "real" it is, and would like a larger sample size. If he continues to produce a 200 ISO from second base and maintains the rest of his numbers, he'll climb even higher. I do want more reports on his 2B defense, obviously without real minor league defensive data it is hard to make an accurate statement.
    
20. Jenrry Mejia – I see him a lot like people saw Feliz last year. Though, my understanding is that his changeup is a better offering than what Feliz is/was showing.  He is only 19 and holding his own in AA and missing a ton of bats.
21. Kyle Drabek – He is about two years older than Mejia, but his numbers have been nasty in A+ ball. Striking out over 10 per 9 with a 1.82 FIP.  Of course, that has to do with Drabek not allowing a single HR in 61.2 IP. His rates have dropped significantly in 20 less IP in AA, but I’d expect him to rebound has he gets more comfortable.
22. Michael Taylor – Talk about a breakout. Taylor, 22, is putting on a clinic in AA. His wOBA is 442, however is this really a breakout when he has been over 400 for the past 500 AB? He could be a superstar.
23. Brett Wallace – Sometimes it is hard to peg the young guys who are being challenged, but I am really confidence in Wallace’s bat. Where he winds up defensively is another story. If he stays at third he’ll be even higher up the list.  I think his walk rate will bounce back over time as well.
24. Jake Arrieta – I like him a good deal, he misses a good chuck of bats, gets ground balls, and is consistent.  ERA and FIPs of 2008: 2.87/3.39 2009: 2.59/3.08, 2.92/3.08. I think his K rate will increase in AAA as well.
25. Dominic Brown – Though he really needs to be challenged in AA, he has been great in A+ ball with a 410 wOBA. He has the tools and they seem to be turning into skills.
26. Tim Alderson – I’m a fan of him, though I don’t see his ceiling higher than a 3rd starter. I honestly believe his strange leg kick effects minor league hitters to a small degree. With that said, it is hard to argue with his command and minor league numbers.
27. Tyler Flowers – He is doing very well in AA, I didn’t realize how old he was though. I thought he was around 20, but he is 22 and a January birthday as well. There are still questions about his defense, but the bat seems to be for real. He needs to cut down the SO though.
28. Michael Saunders – How can’t one love what he is doing this season? I really like Canadian prospects because when they break out, they tend to explode and that is what Saunders ahs done this year.
29. Casey Kelly – I’m a believer, though I hope he gains some velocity on his fastball so he can be a true number 1. If he is sitting at 90 he’ll have to rely on his already great control and secondary stuff, which isn’t always easy to do. Given his youth and desire to play SS, I love the way BOS is handling him.
30. Dee Gordon – I’m a big believer in his bat and walk ability. The steals are pretty insane and given how raw he is, he really could break out even further.
31. Hector Rondon - He is doing really well in AA, has good rates, and very little regression from what I can see. I love that his BB have decreased from last year.
    
32. Brad Holt – It is exciting to see a few Mets prospects on a top 50 list for something other than hype, but Holt is very similar to some other high velocity SP. He has a high floor because he would probably be successful in an MLB pen today. His AA sample size is way too small to even make mention.  But his other numbers are fantastic.
33. Martin Perez – It almost seems that you could have entire top 50 list filled with young Texas pitching, but Perez’s SO rate really stands out for someone born in the 90s (4/4/91). If he can get his walks down even slightly, I think he’ll be a top 10 pitcher when everyone a top this list graduates next year.
34. Desmond Jennings – Tools and sometimes hurt, Jennings has been outstanding this season. He could be a 7 skill player when he reaches the majors. His injury tendency is a concern though.
35. Yonder Alonso – His small sample size in AA is disappointing, but then again it is a SSS.  His A+ ball numbers were expected. He needs to bring his game up in AA, and I think he will.
36. Matthew Moore – Has he walked a ton of people? Yes. Has he also struck out 13 batters per 9? Yes. Even with the high walk rate he has only allowed 44 hits this season in 70.2 IP.  He also has some slight GB tendencies.
37. Jordan Lyles – Another filthy youngster, Lyles brings both stuff and control to the hill for the Astros.  He might have been slightly over looked last year with an abnormal HR rate added to his season line in 2 A- starts.
38. Jason Knapp – All three of these guys have put up remarkable numbers, but you can’t mention the first two without mention Knapp too. This 6’5” righty also misses a ton of bats.
39. Nick Barnese –Barnese gets a ton of GB, but was gimpy to start the year. Sadly, this season he has a small sample size, just 28 IP (1.29 ERA, 19:6 SO: BB). But last season he was dominate striking out 84 in 66 IP.
40. Freedie Freeman - I like Freedie, but I have some concerns. First, his stats are very BA dependant and he has a very high BABIP. I'd like to see him gain a few percentage points in his walk rate and add at least 50 points to his ISOP. He is young, but without the pop he won't be a major leaguer.
41. Adrian Cardenas – Very consistent for a IF, though I believe it remains to be seen if he could play 2B at the MLB level. Most likely he’ll be at 3B with Weeks at 2B. I do believe that hurts is value some because he doesn’t have 3B power. His on base skills are great though. The power could be developed down the line.
42. Brandon Snyder – I was hoping that it would be Rowell that had the break out. But it was Snyder who increased his BB rate and his ISO significantly in AA this year. If he can cut down the walks and his power continues to develop he could certainly replace Huff next season.
43. Chris Heisey – The oldest guy on this list, Heisey broke out this year with a .457 wOBA in AA. Cutting down his SO rate had to help, and I’m sure those additional HRs didn’t hurt either.
44. Derek Norris – A bright light for the Nationals in terms of hitting, Norris has great pop and instincts at the plate, but it remains to be seen if he’ll stick behind it. Moving to 1B would really hurt his value. The Nationals aren’t going anywhere though, and can be leisurely with their efforts to move him off catcher.
45. Jemile Weeks – Weeks is electric and has shown more pop than I think anyone expected with 7 HR in his first 28 games.  He does strike out a bit much for my liking, though maybe it is his size that makes me think lead-off hitter.
46. Wilmer Flores – While I didn’t really like the ARL take that the Mets had with F-Mart and him “holding his own” all those years in the minor leagues, I do like Flores a lot. The fact that be blasted 8 balls last season at age 16 is amazing to me. While he hasn’t hacked in the minor leagues, his ISO has been sliced in half from last year to this one.
47. Thomas Neal – Old for A+ ball, and I think he needs to jump to AA to justify this spot.  Its hard to ignore the 13 HRs he has hit thus far though.
48. Nick Weglarz – I’ve never been high on him, but he has been very consistent. Can he stay in the OF? If he can, that’ll make him have solid value if he doesn’t butch the ball. He is a walk machine, who hits for very solid power.
49. Lonnie Chisenhall – The doubled SO rate stands out to me, but so does almost three times the amount of HRs. If he can stick at SS, I think he’ll skyrocket (if he keeps the SO down too).
50. Wade Davis – I used to love him, now I’m not so high on him because of the iffy SO rate when added to the iffy BB rate. He is a solid three.
51. Tim Beckham – I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt (but not Hosmer). The scariest part of his not so hot numbers is the high BABIP, SO rate, and low walk rates.  On the surface his triple slash line of 283/338/420 look decent for a SS, but the wOBA of 337 is just too low for a number one overall pick.  He needs to cut down the SO and take some bases.
52. Robbie Ross – Ross is a small lefty, but is missing bats at an alarming rate. His 15.05 K/9 is outstanding. But he also has the control, 1.77 BB/9 really stands out for someone his age. His strand rate is very high, but so his BABIP. I think his numbers will get better as his BABIP normalizes, and maybe with less base runners his strand rate too will normalize with less negative effect. He has also been a groundball machine (65%).  If though it has only be 20 IP, I’d like to see him start the second half in A+ ball, skipping A.

DISCLOSURE:  THE FOLLOWING PLAYERS ARE ON MY FANTASY TEAM, WHICH I HAVE DRAFTED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. IT IS A VERY VERY DEEP LEAGUE WITH HUNDREDS OF MINOR LEAGUERS ON EACH TEAM.

PARKER, TILLMAN, MORRISON, CARTER, KELLY, RONDON, BARNESE, ROSS. RECENTLY I'VE TRADED VILLALONA, ALDERSON, LATOS, CODY JOHNSON, GREG HALMAN, NOLAN REIMOLD.

I think my rationale backs up my opinions well. This isn't just another baseless list. I don't believe I have a  bias towards my guys, but you can be the judge.  If you would like to hear more from me (I have tons of time in the summer) let me know by posting something or rec'ing this.

Rip away.

~Metty