Guys You Were Wrong About: Worse than Expected
by John Sickels
on Jul 17, 2025 11:34 AM EDT
217 comments
The flip side of yesterday's discussion: what players have turned out worse than you expected, and why? Pitchers with injuries don't count.
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Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin
Not yet or not at all?
by ofsticksandbats on Jul 17, 2025 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have both of these guys in a keeper league
Minor league contracts….f-ing driving me nuts.
by JayWise on Jul 17, 2025 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont see it
How is Bruce on that list? First, its too early to make any judgment call on a guy like this, after just over one seasons worth of games, but his 162 prorate is .235 w/ 33 HRs as a 21/22 yo.
by ADLC on Jul 17, 2025 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Salty sucks.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 17, 2025 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A couple
Yosmeriro Petit. Tons of Ks, No walks. Not many homers. I have no idea what happened. When he hit about 21, everything started to fall apart.
Matt Antonelli. Sure, it’s early, but WTF. He just stopped hitting at all.
Marcus Sanders. Tought me the lesson of: Speed and plate discipline in the minors is meaningless if they have absolutely zero power.
I’m sure there are more. I have a feeling this will be a much more popular thread than the other one.
by Galt on Jul 17, 2025 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Any Cub.
Corey Patterson-Never thought he’d be a star, but at least thought he’d be serviceable
Heesop Choi-Dude was a monster in Des Moines
I hate the Cubs, but just happen to live in the same town as their AAA affiliate.
*To early on Bruce & Maybin, next year is make or break IMO.
*Jeff Clement-knees caught up to him.
by TheJackass on Jul 17, 2025 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Clement
Wasn’t the knees as much as he was wedged out of the organization thanks to high-priced failures taking away ABs from him at the major league level. Granted he was really pressed at catcher but losing ABs to Sexson/Vidro/Johjima really deflated his prospects.
I still think he can become a valuable hitter as a C/DH/1B type but I definitely don’t think it’ll be with Seattle.
by ThomasG on Jul 17, 2025 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
me too
chicago
http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58
by huckleberry on Jul 17, 2025 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Choi
may not have turned out incredible, but would have been a more than useful DH. I think he was a nice Giambi-lite
by METSMETSMETS on Jul 18, 2025 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Lane
I thought he would be a stud.
by ozzman99 on Jul 17, 2025 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He should of been
but he sucks now
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple Pirates
Oliver Perez - I don’t really know how he went from being compared to Randy Johnson in 2004 to being whatever you want to call him now. I hated the Nady trade because I thought the Pirates were selling low on Perez, and I held out hope for him until this past season.
Ian Snell - After the 2007 season, I thought he was due for a big break out. Instead he’s been mediocre and contemplating suicide. Perhaps the Pirates just excel at ruining pitchers.
by jar75 on Jul 17, 2025 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I mean, I guess making a joke about suicide is funny...
by Mets2k9 on Jul 17, 2025 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a joke
“On Sunday, Snell struck out 17 hitters in seven innings in his first start back in Triple-A. Wednesday, he talked to Indianapolis TV station WTHR and revealed that he’s been battling depression and actually contemplated suicide about a month ago. He says he wanted the trip to Indianapolis to help clear his head because it’s somewhere he’s always liked pitching, having thrown a no-hitter with the Indians back in 2005.”
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/07/01/ian-snell-says-depression-thoughts-of-suicide-lead-to-self-demo/
by jar75 on Jul 17, 2025 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's awful
I’ve always liked Snell, too bad to here he’s having such a rough go of things. I think I’d probably put him in the “injured” category with this knowledge though, the mental side of things can be as important as the physical.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jul 18, 2025 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know it's a few days later, but
still deserves a fail
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Jul 23, 2025 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andy Marte
I once remarked that “Mike Lowell is a speed bump in Andy Marte’s career path.”
So, yeah, that didn’t quite turn out to be the case.
"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
by OCD SS on Jul 17, 2025 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
although he’s still 25 and has a .322/.361/.545 slash line in AAA right now… could he be just now be putting it all together?
by gorilla_baller on Jul 17, 2025 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he should be in the pros right now
but the indians are slow to because he has sucked in his stints in the pros
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
andy marte
collects a salary whether he’s in AAA or the major leagues, making him a professional… it might be semantics, but i think what you meant to say is that he should be in the bigs, or the majors… or the major league club, if you’re not into the whole brevity thing
by gorilla_baller on Jul 18, 2025 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahh
ok, sorry bout that im just talking bout where he is, not his salary
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes-- the point people are attempting to make here is that minor league baseball is professional baseball
If you say “the pros” to refer to the big leagues, you are being incorrect and confusing.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2025 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez
Josh Fields (the White Sox one)
Brandon Morrow - Expecting him to at least be a relief stud, has done neither.
Delmon Young - Where the hell is his power?
Dan Meyer (well, that may be teetering on the injury side though)
><
by Blicks on Jul 17, 2025 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Max-Ram has played through an injured wrist all year.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 17, 2025 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teagarden
…always looked like what he’s turned out to be (so far - both he and MaxRam are really young).
He actually reminds me a lot of Ellsbury in that he came up and hit way over his head while playing great up the middle defense, and that caused expectations to completely outpace what his career peripherals said he was likely to do. It doesn’t help that he didn’t seem to have the frame for his position, so injuries were already in the forecast.
"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
by OCD SS on Jul 17, 2025 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teagarden is not that young
I love him and think he deserves an actual opportunity, but he’s a year older than Salty.
by Ophidian on Jul 17, 2025 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
but when you consider that catchers tend to develop late and he was in the majors less than 3 years after being drafted in ‘05, I don’t think he should still be allowed some development time.
"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
by OCD SS on Jul 18, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 on Fields
Never expected him to be a world-beater but I definitely saw him as a plus platoon bat.
by ThomasG on Jul 17, 2025 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think Fields, in the right setting, can be a productive player
by thejd44 on Jul 17, 2025 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't think 2007 was a fluke, but a beginning of what he could be
He had a wrist injury last year, didn’t he? I wonder if that has sapped him of his power.
by thejd44 on Jul 19, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his mechanics are awful
and his confidence level is pretty low. The 40 HR power is still there but he needs a new team.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 20, 2025 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meyer is definitely ineligible for this post.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 17, 2025 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
clearly
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Jul 23, 2025 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alex Gordon....
seems like an obvious choice.
by DenverBears on Jul 17, 2025 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's actually been
a 3 WIN guy over the last few years. that’s not all star or anything, but that’s certainlly pretty good for a youngster.
by RollingWave on Jul 19, 2025 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the problem is....
that he was expected to be a star at this point—he was expected to be doing what Longoria or Braun have been doing.
He’s doing okay, just not what was expected.
by DenverBears on Jul 19, 2025 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daric Barton
I thought Barton was just going to be a great hitter and it just hasn’t happened.
Two other guys who’ve done somewhat better but still far below what I expected early
in their minor league careers.
Ian Stewart
Conor Jackson
Another post mentioned Marcus Sanders and the lessons about speed/obp guys with no power. I’ll give a +1 to that comment from myself also.
by eastin on Jul 17, 2025 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not disagreeing with you...
but Barton is still only 23. If he can add some more power he still has a good chance of becoming an above average player. However, his mentioning is still warranted because of the rediculous comps people were throwing out when he was traded to the A’s- those comps being tony Gwynn and Pujols.
by MAC Attack on Jul 17, 2025 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
from a few years back....
Not my own personal miss (I wasn’t paying enough attention to have an opinion one way or another), but…
Ben Grieve—-I seem to remember everyone saying he was going to win several batting titles.
by DenverBears on Jul 17, 2025 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hermida
Although there are signs (walk and strikeout rates falling in line with minor league numebrs) that he’s becoming some semblance of the player he was project to be. He’s been in grave danger of topping out as Tampa Bay-era ben grieve. And jinx on the DenverBears for posting Ben Grieve as I was writing this! lol
by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Francoeur
The Atlanta-born outfielder who makes Hermida look like Jason Heyward.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Jul 17, 2025 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crystal Ball
I got especially optimistic after John’s Crystal Ball: https://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/11/13/142554/28
Sigh…
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Jul 17, 2025 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frenchy
hadn’t been mentioned yet? As long as we’re talking about recently traded busts, Yuniesky Betancourt needs to be dropped.
by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeremy Brown
was really a dissapointing failure for me even though I was never a fan of OBP heavy minor league player acquisition. If I learned anything from that is that walks never translate well to higher levels and then to the MLB.
Also, I thought Scott Thorman would be a regular or at least platoon 1b by now. That said, I think he still has a future if someone gives him a chance.
by tdot mariner fan on Jul 17, 2025 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jeremy Brown would have been a solid MLB back up if he didn't retire.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 17, 2025 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Backup catchers don't have to be anemic-hitting glove men, you know
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2025 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, there seems to be a common belief among baseball people that they are supposed to be that
I’ve heard a few announcers go on and on about how a backup catcher must be great defensively. I have no idea why.
by thejd44 on Jul 19, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I agree it shouldnt be that way… but Im hard pressed to think of more than a handful of teams that either a) make sure they have a good catch and throw guy as the backup; or b) make sure they have a LHH backup (or RHH, if the starter is a lefty).
by alskor on Jul 20, 2025 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't suggesting that
It was an honest question, as I’ve often heard his defense knocked. I wasn’t suggesting that he’d need to excel defensively, but usually you want a backup to be average at least. Was his defense really good enough to catch at the major league level? And why no call-ups if it was?
Again, honest questions that I don’t pretend to have answers to.
by Fanon on Jul 19, 2025 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His defense was mediocre, but it wasn't game-breakingly bad
If it was, he’d have been moved off the position, as the A’s have shown themselves willing to do with other “catching” prospects (like Daric Barton).
He could probably have hit like an average catcher while defending at only somewhat worse than an average catcher. That’s bad if it’s describing your starter, but it’s fine for an inexpensive backup.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 20, 2025 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As for why no call-ups,
The A’s had a serviceable backup in Adam Melhuse already. He’d likely have claimed the job once Melhuse was put out to pasture; instead, the A’s got Rob Bowen, who was sort of like Jeremy Brown but more expensive because he’d been around for a few years.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 20, 2025 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Gomez
Thought he would become a star
by Bravesin07 on Jul 17, 2025 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hes really young though
Can’t make that decision yet
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 1:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
He still could be a star
Once he realizes he’s not a 40 HR guy. His hacks are way too big for a guy with his kind of skill and speed. He’s been hot the last week at least.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on Jul 18, 2025 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh...
His glove is too good for him to ever be a bust… but I really just dont see his bat ever developing into something better than “acceptable.”
by alskor on Jul 19, 2025 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the chances would be better
If the Twins would just send him down to Triple-A to work on his hitting.
by Fanon on Jul 19, 2025 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If his bat is "acceptable" he's a starter because his glove is simply fantastic.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Jul 21, 2025 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I was saying.
Im not even saying his bat could be “acceptable” in a neutral context - Im saying his glove is so good it lowers the bar dramatically for where his bat can be… but I still don’t have much faith in his bat ever being better than “justified by his glove.”
by alskor on Jul 21, 2025 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Samesies
I thought he was going to be a beast for whoever would give him a real chance. Thought he had 40-50 homers writen all over him
by Beezerdust on Jul 17, 2025 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phil Hughes
Sure… too early, but I thought he was going to be a big star by now.
by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
whereas I never really bought into Joba
b/c of durability and conditioning issues. Too many question marks for me. He STILL hasnt thrown a full season of starts at any level. Hell, the most he’s thrown in a season at any level is 100 IP (well, 112 combined over 4 levels in 07). Durability is the biggest question mark for young starters. We also ask about every pitching prospect: Cant they stay healthy over a full season? Joba never has and no one seemed to notice or worry about it. Million dollar arm, though.
by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
He was getting robbed on the LD% vs BABIP comparison earlier in the season (still is but not as pronounced now) and his BB%/K% are improving (although still not great). I can’t fault the O’s for playing Reimold ahead of him, but I don’t think Pie should be left for dead.
by Ophidian on Jul 17, 2025 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Appropriately today
Julio Lugo. I thought he would be a big hit in Boston. He was such a pain in the ass when he played for Tampa. So annoying. Great range, but errors. Errors dont bother me. He was a corpse from the time he got here. We all assumed the Dodgers suckiness was SSS… apparently he got real old real fast. What a disappointment.
by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably only Rays fans will remember
but I dont think I can overstate how annoying it was to play Lugo and Crawford at the top of the Rays order. Wanted to gun them down. They would get on and run and run and run. They seemed to get infield hits left and right and just pester the hell out of you. It was impossible to get them out, and once they were on they were stealing 2nd and 3rd. Disgusting. That’s what Theo thought he was getting. A Chone Figgins type. Instead, we got a 57 year old Chone Figgins type.
by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Homer Bailey
killed AA a couple of seasons ago. . .
Hes looked better recently but I thought hed be much better by now
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 17, 2025 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tim Lincecum
I figured he’d have two Cy Youngs after two seasons in the bigs. Not one.
by samjjones on Jul 17, 2025 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He would...
If he spent the whole season in the majors his first year. But since it was just like 2/3 of a season, they weren’t gonna give it to him. No need to worry though, he wins #2 this season.
Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.
by Boxkutter on Jul 17, 2025 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lastings Milledge
I figured he’d be at least consistently average by now, and he’s been anything but. The books not closed yet I guess, and his opportunities haven’t exactly been ideal from a development standpoint, but still.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jul 17, 2025 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
I even bookmarked the fact site. I bought into Lastings hook, line, and sinker.
by Beezerdust on Jul 17, 2025 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh... not me
Briefly I liked him. I remember the Manny Ramirez for Lastings Milledge talk - and, unlike most Sox fans, Ive hated Manny for about… 7 years now. Even I didnt want to do a deal with the Mets. Milledge just really didnt impress me.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
holy shit!
I did the same thing!
That site wasn’t updated in months, and thus Blassstings’ career has been a disappointment.
ain't had enough...
by BlackOps on Jul 18, 2025 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I, too, bought into the Lastings hype
partially because the sentimental side of me thought he had the best baseball name I’d seen in years. Seriously— Lastings Milledge: it flows, it’s totally unique, sounds like it should be on a plaque in Cooperstown… guess the baseball gods decided not to play along, though.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Jul 18, 2025 6:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never really thought he had a position
Particularly on the Mets. But his center field defense was always considered kind of fringy and his bat always looked kind of mediocre as a corner bat, particularly considering he’s never been great at utilizing his speed game.
by Fanon on Jul 19, 2025 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JJ Hardy
Power, FB%…too inconsistent and destined for a utility role..thought he would break out but can’t stay in the slot..
by nordica on Jul 17, 2025 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
destined for utility?
He hit 50 homeruns between 2007 & 2008. He is second in the Majors for UZR by a shortstop in 2009, and has had a positive rating for every season he’s played. His offensive numbers are down this year, but his babip has been brutal all year. I’d say he’s had a pretty solid mlb career thus far, especially since all I heard was all glove/very little bat reports about him as a prospect.
by richieabernathy on Jul 17, 2025 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I think he broke out in 2007
when he provided 4.5 WAR, and then a 4.9 WAR year the next. He’s still a pretty good starting SS, but a few of his peripheral numbers (i.e., contact rate, LD%) are maybe cause for concern.
by Mike I on Jul 17, 2025 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
If anyone expected anything better than 2007/2008 from Hardy, they weren’t paying much attention to his ascension through the minors. His acclaim was more due to his consistent glove than his average bat. That he hit mid-20s in HRs twice was an unexpected boon to the Brewers.
by _William_ on Jul 17, 2025 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ian Stewart and Stephen Drew
Both are decent major leaguers but I thought both would be upper echelon guys at their position, which just isn’t the case right now.
by joerote on Jul 17, 2025 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is stewart’s 2nd year starting, and his first year with the club for the season’s entirety. And he has hit 16 home runs already, while plays third base and 2nd base. I wouldn’t be disappointed just yet. As for Drew, wasn’t he on the DL for a while this season? Once again, not really giving these guys much rope, are you?
by Mets2k9 on Jul 17, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A healthy Drew
Isn’t in the elite grouping for SS’s but he’s probably in the group following that elite group. Both guys you listed are good players, I guess you expected greatness. Problem is they both have had little MLB time under their belt to say they’re “worse than expected” unless you expected greatness right away.
It’s your call, but I’m surprised to see 2 good young and up and coming players on this post…
by cowboy4eva on Jul 17, 2025 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Drew had more extra base hits than any other shortstop in the bigs
From ‘07-’08. Or something like that. When healthy, he’s a top five shortstop.
by Fanon on Jul 19, 2025 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howie Kendrick
how can you be such a beast in the minors and fizzle so bad in the bigs?
I love this team again. I know they’re bad for me.
They’ll probably get drunk again and beat me… but I just can’t help myself.
by ReservoirDog on Jul 3, 2025 10:18 PM CDT
by e-gus on Jul 17, 2025 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kendrick
When a majority of your offensive game is predicated on the vagaries of balls-in-play, well, random variances in performance happen. See Cano, Robinson.
by ThomasG on Jul 17, 2025 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
Kendrick did have very high BABIP in the minors, but he’s maintained that in the majors. With the exception of this year, his BABIP in the majors was .382 and .362 respectively, in line with what he produced in the minors. His walk and strike-out rates have also been roughly the same. What hasn’t been the same is his power. In 2006, he hit 13 homers in 290 ABs in AAA. Over the last 3 years, in roughly 1000 ABs, he’s hit the same 13. His isolated power in the minors was in the .240-.260 range. It’s been half that in the majors. It’s that, not BABIP, that is the reason why he has devolved from being one of the best hitting prospects in the game to an average 2B (when he plays)
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 17, 2025 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Setting aside the offensive environs of Salt Lake, Kendrick has pretty much been the same kind of hitter at both AAA and MLB in terms of offensive components: walk rate at or less than 5%, K rate around 15-17%, GB 50-55%, LD around 18%, puts a healthy amount of balls in play…the only thing that’s really changed this season for him is his BABIP is close to 80 points lower than his career norms. He’s still the same hitter as he was in the minors, park-inflated homers be damned.
by ThomasG on Jul 17, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is to say
that there isn’t really anything wrong with him. The hits will start falling again and he’ll have numbers in line with what he’s done in the past.
by ThomasG on Jul 17, 2025 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cano, Robinson
has put up a combined 11.4 WAR in what is basically 4 full season worth of play in 4.5 season so far. that means even with 05 and 08 considered he’s still grades out to a slightly above average starting player starting from age 22-26 his best season was a 5.0 WAR season.
Howie Kendrick ’s best sesaon is worth 2.3 WAR he has 4.7 WAR in about 2 full season worth of games spread through 3.5 season.
Purely on a rate basis. Kendrick has actually been reasonablly good. but he’s simply missed too much time due to demotions or injuries (he has yet to have a single season where he even plays over 100 games in the majors!). Where as Cano have been durable. (he’s basically missed one month in 2006 and other than that has played just about every day since his callup)
So while purely looking at a rate base. Kendrick isn’t that far behind Cano. factoring in that Cano’s played just about every day where as Kendrick have yet to even play siginficantly more than half a season in any year. the difference looks at lot bigger .
Cano’s lack of walks makes him suspect to luck at times. but he’s really done most other aspects quiet well. he plays a up the middle position reasonablly well (outside of 2005) hits the ball all the time and tend to hit it hard. (high BABIP) and he has good power for a super high contact 2B . and he’s durable. preventing the Miguel Cairos of the world from stinking up the joint too often.
by RollingWave on Jul 19, 2025 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this really a new phenomena for you?
by Mets2k9 on Jul 17, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course not
I just had him pegged as a sure thing
I love this team again. I know they’re bad for me.
They’ll probably get drunk again and beat me… but I just can’t help myself.
by ReservoirDog on Jul 3, 2025 10:18 PM CDT
by e-gus on Jul 17, 2025 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Answer: Play half your games in Salt Lake City
Look at the drop in performance from other Angels’ minor leaguers. Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Sean Rodriguez… it’s the same old song.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 17, 2025 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of mine..
Brad Penny: He’s had a hell of a career, but coming up in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization, I thought he would be a top 10 starter in this league over a five-year span.
Austin Kearns: He had a good rookie campaign and started 2003 with a home run binge and he has been a mediocre-to-subpar outfielder ever since.
Nick Johnson: Johnson had an excellent batting eye and the tools to be a multiple All-Star. I know injuries have been a part of his shortcomings, but his career has been tragic when you consider he holds a .398 career on-base and .849 OPS.
by sdbaseballfan on Jul 17, 2025 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Kearns
Thanks to fat Ray King for sitting on Austin’s shoulder at home plate, and in retrospect, ruining his career.
by DevilsAdvocate on Jul 17, 2025 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its amazing that Ray King's fat ass has ruined careers
Ray King’s fat ass has had a pretty decent career for itself.
by samjjones on Jul 20, 2025 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Delmon Young
Mediocre BB/K ratio aside, I thought his performance in the Southern League as a 19-year-old was too good to ignore (.968 OPS, 20 HR).
by sdbaseballfan on Jul 17, 2025 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I still don't see how scouts missed so bad on Young
He could have the worst hitting approach in the Majors, that is if you can actually define his approach is if there is one at all.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on Jul 18, 2025 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
see Olivo, Miguel before saying that
at least he has power though.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jul 19, 2025 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
disappointments
Wilson Betemit - thought he would be more than a utility player
Dan Wright (from the CWS organization) - knew him growing up and always thought he’d be a stud
by BlueVol03 on Jul 17, 2025 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wilson Betemit – thought he would be more than a utterly terrible utility player
by RollingWave on Jul 19, 2025 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are just a litany of these types
So many that have been listed, and so many others too. It’s an endless list.
Usually it’s pitchers, due to injury.
Howsabout Mark Prior? Or even, Kerry Wood. With the aforementioned Corey Patterson and Hee Seop Choi, and maybe even Gary Scott, the Cubs have had more than their share of disappointments.
by billybgame on Jul 17, 2025 5:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For me:
Delmon Young is a huge one. I have no idea where the power went. How he goes from the best player in AA (not just the best prospect, he was legitimately the best player in the league) at 19 to being one of the worst regulars in baseball is beyond me.
I always thought Joel Guzman would figure it out.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Jul 17, 2025 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I really blame the Twins.
I think theyve changed his swing and approach.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right, because he was tearing it up with the Devil Rays
that organizational philosophy is pretty much in the past as far as the Twins go.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 18, 2025 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
current and past:
past players:
Ben Grieve—what happened to him? I thought he was going to be as a lesser “Big Hurt”.
Alex Escobar—last time I was ever bought into by NY media hype!
current- Daric Barton, I guess I was really won over by “Moneyball”.
Chris Young (OF) Dbacks—what happened to this guy?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Jul 17, 2025 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure what Daric Barton has to do with "Moneyball,"
but I’ll agree for now. He’s young enough to figure it out and has rebounded from a terrible April, though, getting especially hot as of late. Oakland can’t send Giambi out to pasture and give Barton a full-time look soon enough. We’ll know for sure in 2010.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
by RyanFromBonas on Jul 17, 2025 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, Ben Grieve had a nice swing
I didnt see a great career or anything, but I certainly didnt see the way he fell off a cliff.
I definitely bought into Escobar too. Heck, I thought he would still break through with Cleveland.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't Escobar fall into the injury category?
The guy must of blown out his knees 10 times by the time he ended his career (3 times really, I believe), separated his shoulder a couple of times, and had hamstring/quad problems with a myriad of other injuries. I believe he was just too broke down to ever produce.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jul 18, 2025 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Young has always had serious contact issues
It’s hard to hit for a high average when you’re striking out in a quarter of your plate appearances. He also has an extreme flyball tendency which makes it hard for him to get ordinary base hits, while exaggerating his merely average power.
That’s only about 20% of the way toward an answer, I know.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2025 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's silly how many players people are listing here are like 23 years old
Some are younger, probably. That’s really quite young to throw in the towel on some of these guys (Daric Barton, for example, who belongs in the majors right now because Jason Giambi is not even a replacement level player).
I always thought Donnie Murphy would be a pretty good hitter. KC rushed him because they’re a pathetic organization, but he always hit pretty well in the minors. I think, if handled better, he might have been more successful.
I also expected more from Kelly Johnson. I was never sure he’d be much of a defender, but I thought for sure he’d hit. His 2007 season was, in my mind, the beginning of a blossoming career. At this point it looks like that might be the best he’ll ever be.
by thejd44 on Jul 17, 2025 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
It’s really the silly the amount of young players that are listed, some not even given a full season yet
by hybrid on Jul 17, 2025 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but someone like andy marte
should be in the majors, they are just basing it off of his pro stints so far
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Must be a lot of kids on this board with no memory beyond a few years ago. I was expecting more guys like Ben Christensen, Bruce Chen, Jon Rauch, Eric Munson, Colt Griffin, Justin Wayne, Eric Duncan, Joe Torres, Chin Feng Chen, Matt Riley, Bryan Bullington, Josh Phelps, Ryan Anderson, Sean Burroughs, Chad Hermansen, John Van Benschoten, Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Jack Cust, Matt White, Dewon Brazelton, Bud Smith, Jimmy Journell (actually I’ve met this guy so I know why he failed), Justin Pope - guys who were top prospects and amounted to nothing and are out of baseball or like in Rauch’s case have a significantly less pivotal role than I expected them to have on a major league team.
Some of these youngs guys listed as failures need to get a shot first. Players come into their own as they get older - 27 is usually a player’s peak. In a few years a few of these guys won’t be on this list.
by KSM on Jul 17, 2025 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't necessarily say you have to be 27 to be eligible
Murphy, who I mentioned, is only 26 (or will be at some time this year). But there should be some sort of discretion here. You listed a lot of good names, though a couple of those guys have made solid careers for themselves (Rauch and Cust).
by thejd44 on Jul 17, 2025 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brazelton
I almost mentioned him but he never exactly set the minor leagues on fire. I did enjoy waching him in college though and thought he’d be a serviceable pro.
by BlueVol03 on Jul 18, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3rd overall
if I remember correctly. But if we’re going by where they were drafted I could make a huge list.
Ben Davis, Matt Anderson, Jeff Austin, Josh McKinley, Beau Hale, Brien Taylor, Mike Kelly, etc…
by BlueVol03 on Jul 18, 2025 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was supposed to be a stud
But the Royals, Cubs, and Padres always seem to rush players to the majors
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andy Marte — though there’s still hope
Fernando Cabrera — I expected filthy stuff from him out of the pen, but he never got it together.
and obvious choice: Danie Cabrera. What a shame.
by JP_Frost on Jul 17, 2025 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Cabrera
actually looks pretty nasty for Pawtucket right now. They may have fixed him.
If he was playing for any other team he’d be in the majors… but being on the Red Sox, and not on the 40 man is killing him.
Still only 27, 38.1 IP, 22 H, 17 BB, 37 K, 1.17 ERA and 17 saves as the PawSox Closer.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
German Duran
I fell for the potential 20HR power at 2B. Not so much.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Jul 17, 2025 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Two Tigers for Me
Joel Zumaya and Jeremy Bonderman.
Zumaya lights up radar guns everywhere, but over the course of his career, he’s been unable to beat out erratic closers Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney due to injuries and wildness. He also has shown a lot of immaturity in the past in how he’s approached baseball in general, and trying to improve his secondary offerings.
Bonderman was the key to the Jeff Weaver deal so many years ago, and many, including myself, thought he was an ace in the making. In fact, after Verlander was drafted, I thought they’d be an awesome 1-2 punch. Well, what happened? Bonderman has struggled in the first inning of ballgames, hasn’t been able to learn a third pitch (changeup) in 4+ years, and has now suffered a major injury, losing at least 7 mph off his average fastball. Clearly, without that third offering, and the lost velocity, he may flame out quickly here if he’s not careful.
Go get Ian Snell, Jonathan Sanchez, or Eric Bedard
by sportznut3081 on Jul 17, 2025 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ehhh
At least in 2006, him not beating out Jones was more due to silly role definition by the staff and FOs.
by RollingWave on Jul 19, 2025 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eulogio de la cruz
he was never really a stud prospect like some of the other guys in this thread, but he had (has) everything i look for in a pitcher. he has 95+ MPH heat, he gets a ton of GBs due to the sinking/biting combination of his FB/CH, and he Ks a more than decent amount of hitters.
it’s not even that his BB rate is his downfall, his downfall is just that he doesn’t know where the ball is going once it leaves his hand.
massive potential, though.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Jul 17, 2025 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Daniel Cabrera
Here’s what I posted in John’s other post, but I was too foolish to read the directions. DC belongs in this thread:
For the life of me I can’t explain what happened to him at the end. I thought he’d live up to the potential. But it’s one thing for a guy to fail. It’s another for a guy to go from throwing 97MPH in the 7th inning a couple years ago. To this year being a guy who rarely topped 89 MPH. This from a guy who is 28. Something is just not adding up. I might have been the biggest (only?) Daniel Cabrera fan in the world :(
by cowboy4eva on Jul 17, 2025 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hate that dick
He just seemed to carve up the Jays and it always chapped my ass to watch him dominate the Jays. Maybe it just seemed that way though.
by Beezerdust on Jul 17, 2025 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he destroyed my royals too
every time. not in the we’d score 2 runs on 7 innings domination either. like he’d f’ing shut us out.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jul 17, 2025 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the stats
The Jays actually have done pretty well against him, but he has 1 of his 2 shutouts against the Jays (the other is Atlanta) and the Jays are 1 of 2 teams (the other is the Royals) he has 2 complete games against. Although he have up over 2.5 run more per game against the Jays than the Royals.
What that means is that yes, Cabrera carved up the Royals
by Beezerdust on Jul 17, 2025 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Will never forgive him for, after getting roughed up, pegging Scott Hatteberg in the spine on Opening Day 2005. What a smug CS’er Cabrera is. Glad he’s out of the league.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
by RyanFromBonas on Jul 17, 2025 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely.
He threw a hissy fit one time b/c Coco Crisp was dancing around off third base. He’s a nut job.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
Im the opposite. The Sox kicked his ass every time I remember. It was awesome. He would implode every single time. I saw him live twice at Fenway and the guy was a wreck. He’s just too big and he can’t repeat his delivery. he threw bullets but no idea where they were going.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Billy Rowell....
Mantel comps coming out of high school, and I believed the hype….sigh.
by soccerman0 on Jul 17, 2025 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's Only 20/21
Don’t fret yet.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
by cwhitman412 on Jul 17, 2025 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah
I dont know the propriety of quoting tweets, but… lets say an anonymous prospect expert had this to say recently about Rowell:
Last 30 games for Orioles 2006 1st rounder Billy Rowell at High-A: .178 w/ 1 HR. I think people still believe in him, which makes me giggle
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ron Wright
Sure he didn’t walk much, but the guy slugged over .500 for three straight seasons in the minors and hit 32 homers in the sally league and 36 between the Southern and Carolina leagues.
by yondaime4 on Jul 17, 2025 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Key trade chip in the 1996 Denny Neagle deal
I find it hard to believe his only major league action was a 3 at-bat stint with Seattle in 2002.
His performance plummeted after the trade, but he did hit .304/.348/.539 for Calgary in 1997. Was he hurt that year? I can’t believe the Pirates didn’t give him a little taste of the big leagues after his respectable line in the PCL.
by sdbaseballfan on Jul 17, 2025 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I think he was hurt a little, but if guys like Mike Hessman and Russell Branyan get their chance to hit, why can’t Ron Wright? never made any sense to me.
by yondaime4 on Jul 17, 2025 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was called up in '97...
…but had a sore wrist, so they didn’t want to rush him.
He’s really a case of a guy not living up to his potential due to injury. During an exploratory surgery to resolve his persistent back pain, a doctor clipped his sciatic nerve and permanently numbed his right leg. Which, as you might expect, had a significant negative effect on his hitting. Link.
by Vlad on Jul 21, 2025 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ron Wright!
That name made my day. Totally forgot about him. Reminds me of how Chad Hermansen never lived up to his potential…
by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2025 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some 1990s favorites
Ray McDavid: I thought he would be a future 30-30 player after a big year at High Desert and so did Baseball America. High Desert was in it’s infancy stages as a club (many were unaware how hitter friendly Adelanto was) and park effects was a foriegn concept to many at that time.
Ruben Mateo: Great tools and exceptional performance for a youngster. Injuries and subpar plate discipline undermined his promising career.
Alex Ochoa: I overvalued him because of his tools and ridiculous throwing arm. His offensive numbers in the minors weren’t that impressive.
Allen Watson: First round pick in 1991 dominated the minors en route to St. Louis. I thought he was going to be a stud #2 starter for a long time.
Todd Greene and Raul Casanova: Two slugging catchers that fizzled into reserve roles as they moved up the ladder.
Chad Mottola: First rounder enjoyed hot start to his professional career as a teenager and eventually wound up as a 4A journeyman.
Trey Beamon: I bought into his gaudy minor league batting averages, but he didn’t bring much else to the table in offensive production. Had some nice wheels, too. I envisioned him as a poor man’s Tony Gwynn or Al Oliver type.
by sdbaseballfan on Jul 17, 2025 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ochoa
Always loved Ochoa, but only because I loved his arm. Would always grab in as 4th OF in Ken Griffey baseball on Nintendo 64. I would bring him in late in games to play defence.
by Beezerdust on Jul 17, 2025 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greene was from my home town and i remember hiim hitting a ball fowl in Anaheim that went out of the stadium and thinking “damn he is gonna be good…”
Oops.
by yondaime4 on Jul 17, 2025 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more
Travis Lee: Based on his collegiate and minor league performance, I thought he would have a Will Clark-type career. He did well as a rookie and went downhill from there.
He puzzles me much like Ben Grieve.
by sdbaseballfan on Jul 17, 2025 9:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Something Silly
I have always had a man-crush on the 1B who are lefty throwers and lefty hitters. Just a weird thing I have being a lefty myself. I guess it works for OF too, but not as much.
by Beezerdust on Jul 17, 2025 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really liked Travis Lee
even as a 30 year old, I expected him to one year hit 25 HRs and be an all star.
by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Larry Bigbie
Thought after he left the Orioles that he was going to really kick it up. Big guy with a pretty swing. Obviously never amounted to much.
by Rhombus67 on Jul 17, 2025 9:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Two from the turn of the Century
Jose Ortiz and Chris George. I think Ortiz may have been an Age Gate guy, but his 2000 season in AAA was a monster, thought he was going to be a stud.
I don’t think George ever got hurt, just wasn’t that good. I think he was my first example that i shouldn’t ever believe it when the term “Tom Glavine changeup” is applied to a lefty in the minors.
by drwmsu1 on Jul 17, 2025 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ortiz even got sent to Colorado
He was in the ideal place to hit as a rookie and he never stuck.
by sdbaseballfan on Jul 18, 2025 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohhh...
Got two from the Orioles system…
Darnell McDonald, who I think BA had top 25 at one point. Has a grand total of 1 HR and 1 SB in his MLB career at the age of 30.
And a guy who actually had a halfway decent career, Jeff Hammonds. Top 5 prospect was gonna be one of the greats. Had a dozen average MLB seasons, but nothing like what was expected.
Just run down former Orioles 1s. Richard Stahl, Ryan Minor, Matt Riley, Adam Loewen, Reed, Coppinger, Ben McDonald (another guy who had a decent but below expectations career)
by ADLC on Jul 18, 2025 12:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A few more
Jaret Wright
Russell Branyan (this year notwithstanding)
Javier Herrera
by ozzman99 on Jul 18, 2025 1:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jaret Wright
was more of a injury thing though. game 7 1997 says plenty about his true talent.
by RollingWave on Jul 19, 2025 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gio Gonzalez
Stuff is still there, but I thought he had put his control problems behind him. Maybe he just needs time to work it out, but he’s getting smashed.
I thought Felix Pie would be good. Not great, just good.
I thought Jhonny Peralta would be mashing 35+ homers a season by now. He still has time to figure it out, but I think people still don’t understand his ability.
I thought Delmon would be a good to great hitter by now.
Russell Martin has flopped big-time. I think I’ve heard he has an attitude problem.
And don’t get me started on Wieters. Seriously though, I would laugh whenever “statheads” pronounced him better than Mauer or even comparable coming into this season. He has what it takes, definitely, but rookies need time to break in.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 18, 2025 3:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oy
1. Gio Gonzalez a. has only pitched 24 big-league innings this year, b. has a 4.09 FIP, and c. is striking out 10 guys per 9 innings.
2. Russell Martin is, despite everything, on pace to be almost a win above average this season.
3. Can you point me to a single instance, here or anywhere, of a “stathead” (or anyone, for that matter) claiming that Wieters would outplay Joe Mauer this season?
[Besides, statheads love Joe Mauer. .404 OBP from the catcher’s spot? That’s insanely valuable. It’s “traditionalists” who voted f’ing Justin Morneau MVP over him in 2006…]
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2025 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pecota
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/2/12/757241/the-best-team-in-baseball
That counts, right?
And these are guys performing worse than I expected. That doesn’t mean they have to be horrible, just worse than expected. Hence the name of the exercise, “Guys you were wrong about: Worse than expected”. I expected Gonzalez to be a good starter by now. He’s taking longer than I thought, but he still has the same tools. Martin was looking like a great young catcher. He’s been, God forbid I mention it, worse than expected.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 19, 2025 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
If you asked Nate Silver about it, I’m pretty sure he’d have said it was a glitch caused by an insufficient number of comparable players, in much the same way that PECOTA keeps predicting Ichiro to have like a .730 OPS.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 19, 2025 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the point?
That humans sometimes think better than robots? Wow, that’s deep, man.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 20, 2025 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Russell Martin
The innings began to catch up with him late last season. The Dodgers have to run him out there every day, at least he isn’t playing 3rd this season on the days he doesn’t catch.
As far as Wieters, there were some overly optimistic projections at the start of the season, but Paul’s right, Mauer is the prefered catcher of statheads, and traditionalists, as long as they aren’t RedSox fans, then they prefer Jason Varitek and his C. I had to, it was such a relief not seeing Mauer have to battle Varitek to the last day for the starting spot in the All Star game this year.
by smoooooth on Jul 18, 2025 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty broad brush.
None of the Red Sox fans I know would pick Tek over Mauer. Trying to paint any fanbase based on an all-star vote is pretty foolish, but at least in this case anybody voting early might’ve had a case since Tek was outhitting Mauer through the end of May.
"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
by OCD SS on Jul 18, 2025 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
talkin bout 08
when a catcher batting .218 OPS+ of 77 in the first half somehow gave Joe Mauer, .322 137 a battle to be the starting catcher. I think mainstream fans have finally caught on to this Mauer guy.
Just havin a little fun with you Sox fans and your ability to somehow get that guy into an all star game when he was having a terrible year.
by smoooooth on Jul 18, 2025 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted Mauer
I did vote Pedroia over Kinsler, though… I admit it was a homer pick. Pretty ridiculous Kinsler didn’t get that last spot.
by alskor on Jul 19, 2025 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, not really
the fucker needs to stop trying to pull every pitch for a homer. He’s hit about .230 after April.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 19, 2025 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.358 wOBA w/ +5.1 UZR defense.
Though I had no idea his AVG was so low until you made me look it up just now. Last time I looked he had a nice lead over Pedroia across the board… but now, theyre pretty dead even in everything.
by alskor on Jul 19, 2025 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you think he’s gotten enamored with long ball?
during the rangers/royals series back in april, there was nothing that guy couldn’t hit (except when ZacKKKKKKKK was pitching).
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jul 19, 2025 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
almost every time he pull off and pops-up. He has the highest fly-ball % in the MLB.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Jul 19, 2025 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: hmm
good points Paul, JT, and Ryan, and Ask…
What I meant was for Daric the focus of him being a “great” prospect was his plate discipline thing. My memory is flawed these days, so correct me if I’m wrong but part of “Moneyball” also talked about plate discipline.
It’s weird how quickly Beane didn’t give Daric a full shot at firstbase…you’d think he’d give up on Jason Giambi by now.
anyhow, I guess Alex Escobar falls into injury thing, but he wasn’t injured in the minors, right?
hahaha, I wanted to put in Ruben Rivera as my all time favorite “ugh” prospects….
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Jul 18, 2025 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Daric Barton's another player who needs to change his swing plane
He doesn’t have enough power to be hitting 45% of his balls in play in the air. Lowering his strikeout rate to more like what it was in the minors would also help.
At least in his case you can sort of see what he needs to do in order to be good. He’s never going to be elite as a first baseman, though. I wish they’d at least TRY him back at third. I know he faceplanted when they tried it a few years ago, but his glove has made major improvements since then.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2025 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeremy Reed
I really thought he’d be an elite OBP guy with the K/BB ratios he put up in the minors and in his first cup of coffee with Seattle.
by jibs on Jul 18, 2025 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A few guys
Alex Gordon: Only 25 but he has certainly been worse than I expected at .250/.330/.417 through his first 1061 ABs. Hopefully he gets going in the next year or two.
Rickie Weeks: Was having his best year this year so hopefully he was turning it around. But Weeks hit over .240 only once in his first four years. That is certainly worse than I expected from a guy who was an absolute hitting machine in college. Most of his other numbers weren’t bad though. But to see him struggling to hit .240 was certainly a surprise.
by UncleBuck44 on Jul 18, 2025 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
David Wright
I thought he’d have cured cancer by now.
by JayWise on Jul 18, 2025 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My biggests dissapointments
Chan Ho Park- Was supposed to be like Hideo Nomo but never panned out, is doing ok now
Mike Hampton - One of the worse free agent busts, where is he now?
Larry Biegbie - Just plained out went away after 27 homer season
Kevin Stocker - Next “Honus Wanger” sucked
Kris Benson - Was really good and tore rotator cuff, injury sorry
Mark prior - Was a stud, but just fizzled away
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Park, really?
His first stint with the Dodgers was pretty darn good.
by thejd44 on Jul 18, 2025 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be more inclined to say Larry Bigbie "shrunk and shrivelled up" after 27 homer season
if you catch my drift.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 18, 2025 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes i catch your drift
He just sucked pause NOT
I Have Spoken.
by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby
Just a horrible player.
Wasnt he ranked as the 2nd best hitting prospect by Sickles one year. #1 was Mauer.
Injuries are part of it, but most important very stubborn to change his approach. He’s been healthy the past 2 yrs, he’s still hit lousy.
Needs to quit baseball or a demotion to the minors.
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 18, 2025 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: ah kevin stocker
once traded for bobby abreu….oops.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Jul 18, 2025 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have alot because I must be stupid
not in any order just off the top of my head
Dewon Brazelton
Colt Griffin
Wade Townsend
Alex Gordon
Corey Patterson
Sean Burroughs
Ben Petrick
Eric Munson
Joe Borchard
Kyle Peterson
Bobby Hill
Casey Kotchman
Dallas McPherson
Felix Pie
Homer Bailey
Draft guru in training.
by tj.hendricks on Jul 19, 2025 1:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
one of these is not like the others
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jul 19, 2025 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it Petrick?
He was forced to retire due to Parkinson’s. Pretty sad.
by alskor on Jul 19, 2025 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was unaware of that
that is sad. :(
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jul 19, 2025 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
should of remembered him as well
i was thinking gordon, already a decent if not good player. compared to the rest of those names…ugh colt griffin. terrible.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jul 19, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Gordon was drafted in the 14th round
I think we would consider the player he has become a good player. He’s a victim of hype more than anything else, as he’s shown himself to be quite solid; the kind of player that people call a good player on a good team.
by Fanon on Jul 19, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh
The title of this blog post is “Guys You Were Wrong About: WORSE THAN EXPECTED”
I certainly wasn’t expecting Alex Gordon to have a .249/.330/.416 line after his first 1063 ABs. Not after going 2nd overall in a draft filled with stud hitters and after hitting .325 with 29 HRs and a 1.015 OPS at AA.
I expected a few struggles his rookie year but a .725 OPS was still quite lower than expected. I pretty much thought his 2nd year would be his rookie year(but maybe a tad better) and his second year would be his breakout year. For being a polished hitter, he didn’t improve much at all from his first to second year.
Up to this point, he has certainly been worse than expected. But he’s young and probably still has the tools to be a very good major leaguer. But we’ll see. He certainly wasn’t off to a great start this year before getting hurt but that was a sample size.
by UncleBuck44 on Jul 20, 2025 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my big reason for having Gordon on the list is I’m from Nebraska and watching him play here I really thought he would be where Longoria is right now.
Draft guru in training.
by tj.hendricks on Jul 20, 2025 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some old school guys...from the 90s
Phil Plantier…Loved this guy, posted impressive #s in the minors, I was always a believer, and he never broke through as I’d hoped. Swung amazingly hard!
James Baldwin/Scott Ruffcorn/Jason Bere - The three headed beast of pitching from the White Sox. Bere made some noise, but all failed to meet expectations.
Arthur Rhodes - LOVED this guy, as a stros fan, he reminded me of JR Richard. Super excited about him, never broke through, ended up a good reliever tho, but was certainly worse that I’d expected.
Ruben Mateo - Toolsy guy, we good performance at a young age, was top 10 prospect twice, and totally flopped.
One last one is Brian Hunter - Really looked like a Lofton-clone through the minors, I was excited about him! At the time, a future stro OF of Abreu, Hildago, and Hunter looked awesome!
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jul 19, 2025 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mateo
Mateo was never the same after he broke his leg. I think that injury just ruined him.
by John Sickels on Jul 19, 2025 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bere, too, was derailed by injury
All things considered, he was decent.
Ruffcorn is still an all-time White Sox bust.
by thejd44 on Jul 19, 2025 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah yes Jason Bere. He was my preseason Cy Young pick every year and never even came close.
Draft guru in training.
by tj.hendricks on Jul 20, 2025 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plantier
was supposedly a juicer, according to a Bostonian I know.
by Flynn Blake on Jul 20, 2025 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kyle Skipworth
Looking like a dud so far. Although I haven’t seen him firsthand he apparently has some flaws in his swing.
I am still holding out though as he is incredibly young. I am not one to put down young kids with less than a year of pro experience, but Skipworth can hardly stay over .200 in the SAL!
by sheetskout on Jul 19, 2025 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A few Rangers guys for me
Jonathan Johnson, Donald Harris (thought he was going to be a Bo Jackson/Deion Sanders mix), Ruben Mateo (leg injury to blame), Brian Bohanon.
Sounds weird but Bobby Witt too. I know that he had a decent career but I really thought he was going to be the next Nolan Ryan type. Blazing FB, lots of walks and K’s. Cesar King was another guy i thought would be good.
by Michael Cave on Jul 20, 2025 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Biggest complete fail
is Brian Dopirak. In retrospect, knowing what I know now about advanced metrics, I probably wouldn’t have rated him so highly if someone like him came along now.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jul 20, 2025 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't...
Dallas McPherson have finished in the top 5 in home runs at least once by now?
by damianschaab on Jul 21, 2025 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hank Blalock
Given that he was once considered the #1 propsect in baseball, doesn’t he count as a major disappointment?
I propose a 5-year moratorium on trading any young Ranger pitchers who throw over 90 mph.
by Ajax68 on Jul 22, 2025 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
#1 prospect in baseball?
Blalock? When was that? Heck, I remember being furious because BA had him ranked as only the 20th best prospect in the MWL. His problem has been that he went from underrated to overrated pretty quickly.
by blackoutyears on Jul 23, 2025 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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