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Guys You Were Wrong About: Better than Expected

I'm going to be on child care patrol for at least two more days while Jeri tends her father in the hospital. He should be OK but he won't be getting out until Saturday it sounds like. Good thoughts and prayers are appreciated. Given the needy three year old who hangs around these parts demanding things like "food," "attention," and "love," my work time is very limited until Jeri gets back. Thanks for your patience.

In the meantime, I'll come up with some discussion questions for you.

Here's one. Name one current major league player who you were wrong about when he was in the minors. Today we will focus on guys who are good players who exceeded your expectations. Who is the guy, why did he turn out better than you expected, and what have you learned from this?

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Ricky Romero

I know it is early in his career, but Romero has been very good in 2009. His minor league numbers don’t scream out at you and he was generally labelled as a bust by everyone. I figured he would be mediocre in AAA this year, get a call-up next year, maybe pull a Chacin and dissappear. But not only has Romero excelled before my expectations, he has been far beyond what I thought he could be.

by Beezerdust on Jul 16, 2025 11:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Jul 16, 2025 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What changed

I want to know what’s changed between previous years (the scouting reports seemed to match up with the numbers) and this year to have him make this leap. It looks legit but it’s still a massive surprise.

by Ophidian on Jul 16, 2025 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Puting them away

He never racked up the K’s in the minors like now. He would walk more guys. From what I recall reading, he nibbled and missed. Now, watching him pitch, it’s great to see what passes as command of the zone, especially with his breaking balls. Command begets confidence, begets attacking spots. And it should be sustainable, barring the odd down game.

by ofsticksandbats on Jul 16, 2025 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buster Olney

wrote about it at ESPN (where he in turn got it from somewhere else, I’m sure). Romero said he spent all winter throwing with his changeup grip whenever he played catch, and developed both control and command with it. Would that it were that easy for any pitcher to show improvement.

by Flynn Blake on Jul 16, 2025 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Romero was injured a lot throughout his minor league career and I know that for a while his velocity was very erratic…at one point he was topping out at 88-89mph, he now hits 94mph several times a game.

by metafour on Jul 16, 2025 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Denard Span

He has established himself in the pros as a speedster with a good eye, good defense, and ten homer pop… At the beginning of last year it appeared that he would be a bench player, so he definitely is exceeding my expectations.

by swilliam on Jul 16, 2025 11:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Span is back down to his typical self, slugging under .400 (.388).

He is not very good at all. Glorified 4th OFer, IMHO. He’s basically Ryan Sweeney with less glove and more speed.

by alskor on Jul 16, 2025 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not true at all

he is the ideal leadoff man with a .380+ OBP and a solid amount of SBs. Pretty good fielder too, and a 110 OPS+. Walks almost as much as he Ks.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 16, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He looks good now - but its all reliant on him keeping that AVG that high

With no pop in his bat, I feel that pitchers will learn to attack him more. Lots of guys with a similar profile seem to start off hot like this. Once that happens, the hits and walks drop off pretty quickly.

His ISO is .096. That’s more like an ideal 9 hole hitter. I dont mind him as a tablesetter, but he’s not that good. There’s no reason to think he’ll ever hit for any power, either.

by alskor on Jul 16, 2025 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

Reliant on his AVG… isn’t that the case with all lead-off hitters? Teams don’t look for power for the lead-off spot. If you have that power, you’re usually hitting lower in the line-up.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Jul 16, 2025 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has startingly little power, even for a leadoff hitter

Many leadoff hitters without power at least are young and give you indications they might hit for power at some point. Span gives no such indication. Look at his minor league numbers. He has absolutely no pop in his bat. Even the guys we complain about as having no power -Ellsbury, Gardner, Julio Borbon, Juan Pierre - all signficantly outslugged Span in their minor league careers. Span is basically a slap hitter.

Further, Span strikes out more than youd like from a leadoff guy. With no power and a ~16% K rate I see him having trouble mainting that AVG and, consequently the OBP - as well as walk rate. He was very good last year, but the league is starting to figure out you can go right after him and he’s no threat. Im not high on him at all. Useful player, but people think too much of him. This isnt some special skill set here.

by alskor on Jul 16, 2025 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“startlingly”

by alskor on Jul 16, 2025 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Denard Span has 5 homers right now this season

…so tell me Alskor if he ends up with saaaay 9 or 10 Dingers with 2-3 times as many doubles.
then what say you?

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 17, 2025 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has 14 extra base hits

In half a season. Even Juan Pierre has more.

That’s freakishly little power. “Power” isn’t defined by just how many home runs he has.

by Galt on Jul 17, 2025 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Total slap hitter. He’s Scott Podsednik - with a better walk rate for now. He’s tied for the 5th least XBHs in baseball. Behind such sluggers as Nyjer Morgan, David Eckstein, Juan Pierre, Orlando Cabrera, Brendan Harris, Jerry Hairston Jr…

He’s a decent player - Im not saying he’s terrible. Definitely has a role on a MLB team. I just see that role as 4th OFer on a good team, or at most, second division starter.

by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curious… What would make you project “2-3 times as many doubles” in the second half…?

Even if he did, well, he has only 5 doubles right now on the year… so that’s a max of 15 even in your optimistic projection, which involves him doubling his pace - which is pretty unlikely.

Bottom line, I dont think anyone should be sitting back and saying they were wrong, that this guy was better than they thought. He’s not that good. He’s pretty fringy as a MLB regular. He should really only be playing vs. LHPs, too.

by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not that high of an average

.290 isn’t that high, a lot of Span’s value is in his walks and his OBP. A career 120 OPS plus across a full season of playing is way more than I expected from Span, which is what the original question asked.

by meatdox on Jul 17, 2025 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fat Ichiro

Granted it’s only been for a season and a half, but I really never expected Pablo Sandoval to hit, hit with power, and display the plate discipline that he has.

by ThomasG on Jul 16, 2025 11:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

The discipline has been the biggest surprise. Was terrible to start the year, has REALLY improved…

by valley on Jul 16, 2025 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just go with it

It works much better than “Slightly Less Svelte Gwynn”

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Jul 21, 2025 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dustin Pedroia

Didn’t think his skills would play the way they would in MLB.I figured he’d be about at best an average 2nd baseman.

Jason McEachern tracker: 17 ip 11 h 2 er 0 bb 15 so 1.06 ERA
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jul 16, 2025 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Pedey

He’s the guy that cemented the concept that freakishly good contact rates translate well to the majors. Now if only Howie Kendrick could follow suit…

by whonichol on Jul 16, 2025 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty big difference in walk rate

GIGANTIC difference in K rate. Kendrick is half the hitter Pedroia is. Their approaches are only superficially similar.

by alskor on Jul 16, 2025 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I agree. Saw him in Pawtucket and he looked slow and dumpy. As a sox fan I am thrilled to admit I was wrong.

by Patriotreign3 on Jul 17, 2025 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dallas Braden

Granted, he hasn’t been this good for very long, but I thought he would continue to do the Oakland-to-Sacto shuffle for the next four years, never surpassing spot start/No. 5-man duties. Then, due to Duchscherer going down and no other starter being over 23, he gets the nod on Opening Day, and from that point on, he’s actually pitched like an ace, ranking among the league leaders with a 3,12 ERA in spite of his 7-7 record.
For the record, after just looking at him over the last few years, I was also wrong about Dallas being a punk - he’s a really, really good guy who’s overcome a lot. We’ll see if his success sustains, but to this point, I was wrong about Dallas Braden.

http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10

by RyanFromBonas on Jul 16, 2025 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

He was my first thought. I liked him but thought at most he would have a couple of decent years as a 5th starter/swingman. Never dreamed he would be this good.

by DeJay on Jul 17, 2025 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely

Who knew? The guy’s pitching ace ball for the most part right now, aside from last night’s rough one. And I thought he was a thug too…looks can be deceiving.

by BigJ7489 on Jul 17, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we all know the secret to his success

It’s on his right index finger. (Alas, can’t find a picture.)

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Jul 18, 2025 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Jul 21, 2025 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Edwin Jackson

Knowing full well Jackson’s young age, and being highly touted in the past, I was unimpressed with his numbers going into this season.

What concerned me most was his walk rate, and I was upset when the Tigers traded for him. I knew they needed another SP (they still do), but I didn’t want Jackson. Dombrowski often becomes infatuated with the guys hitting mid to high 90s on the radar gun, with little regard to control.

I preferred someone else from TB with a little less velocity, and more control.

Needless to say, Edwin has been outstanding for the Tigers, and one of the main reasons they’re in first place. He’s attacking the strike zone, and becoming that ace everyone thought he could be when he was in the minors.

Everett, Laird, Treanor, and E. Jackson. Print those WS tix now!

by sportznut3081 on Jul 16, 2025 12:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ben Zobrist

I really liked him as a guy who could draw walks, play solid, but not spectacular defense, but had virtually no power. I thought if he could put up a .290/.350/.360 line consistently, he’d have some value.

I never would have guessed in a million years he’d be this good.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 16, 2025 1:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's mine too, but for a different reason than you.

Ben Zobrist didn’t think he could be this good. No one could have seen this power increase because it came from a complete change in his swing.

But I never saw him being a useful big leaguer, even in a utility role. His swing was so absolutely punchless, even in the minors, I didn’t think the plate discipline would play at the big league level because no pitcher in their right mind would walk a guy who couldn’t actually hit. I saw him being a .260/.290/.330 guy who wouldn’t be a big leaguer very long.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 16, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My choice as well

I gathered some interest in him a few years ago, and saw him play a few games while he was in AAA. I was not at all impressed by his abilities whatsoever. But his play last year made me believe he was at least a useful guy to have on a team, and this year he’s been indispensible.

by ajake57 on Jul 16, 2025 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

big ones

Lincecum - He just walked way too many people. Never thought he’d make such massive strides in his control so quickly. And yes, I was one of those who thought he was too small to make it as a full time starter.

Evan Longoria - Certainly one of scouting over stats. I know nothing of scouting, but his college numbers did not scream superstar to me, so I didn’t really understand why everyone was fawning over him so much (defense aside)

Hunter Pence. He had (has) a hitch in his swing and looks really awkward. He was old for his level, and seemed to get lucky with BABIP even then. He didn’t walk much and struck out a lot

by Galt on Jul 16, 2025 1:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

longoria

Longoria, if you adjusted his Long Beach State stats for context, was really good in college. just the park masked that a lot.

I was also concerned about lincecum’s control.

by John Sickels on Jul 16, 2025 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

this, in re Long Beach

Also, they tend to play a really high caliber of competition.

by wcw on Jul 16, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

michael bourn & Yunel Escobar

Bourn-yes, he’s struggled of late, but he’s actually been a fairly productive leadoff hitter for the Astros. I always thought he’d beno better than Willy Taveras, or a lesser Juan Pierre. His first half production was decent enough to make me think he could go a little beyond Willy….

Escobar-I always felt that he was an overhyped player, at least he’s better than I expected..

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 16, 2025 2:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+100 for Escobar.

I realize that Jeter was a bit younger but check this out:

Derek Jeter, first 1268 plate appearances of career:
.304 AVG, .370 OBP, .415 SLG, 341 Hits, 51 doubles, 14 triples, 15 homers, 104 Walks, 196 Runs Scored, 132 RBIs, 18 HBPs

Yunel Escobar, first 1267 plate appearances of career:
.302 AVG, .370 OBP, .429 SLG, 339 hits, 68 doubles, 3 triples, 23 homers, 109 Walks, 169 Runs Scored, 136 RBIs, 16 HBPs

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Jul 18, 2025 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

damn

that’s kind of creepy

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Jul 21, 2025 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

someone is going to gut me for this

but i was never a big han ram fan… i know he was highly touted, was always the sox top prospect, but every time i looked at his stats i just saw a guy underperforming his skills… i assumed he was mostly east coast, red sox hype

i did believe he’d grow into his abilities and contribute at the major league level, but never to the degree he has…

 he’s a guy who’s really reached his ceiling and is one of the best players in the game

by gorilla_baller on Jul 16, 2025 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Seconded

I just never saw it with Hanley either. Whoops.

www.redsminorleagues.com
www.FirstInning.com

by dougdirt on Jul 16, 2025 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

for every hanley

it seems like there are hundreds like joel guzman, andy marte, and wilson betemit.

by richieabernathy on Jul 16, 2025 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

except

Those 3 actually had the numbers in the minors

by RollingWave on Jul 18, 2025 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Exactly the guy I was thinking. I had multiple chances to trade for him when he was still in the minors in my fantasy league, but I believe my response at one point was “that guy is a complete bust”. Whoops….

Goes to show that scouting DOES matter. His numbers were never impressive in the minors, and I always have felt that a guy has to start having success in the minors in order to have success in the majors. Hanley is an exception to that rule for sure.

by guru4u on Jul 16, 2025 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hanley!

he’s the guy. i thought he was just another really young latin tools goof, and i thought the marlins were absolutely nuts when they skipped him to the majors after half a season in AA. i’m glad i was wrong, though, because now he’s one of the best and most exciting players in baseball.

by jpahk on Jul 16, 2025 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will never forget

When I saw him play in spring training a few times just a couple of months after he was traded . . .he looked phenomenal. Very fast bat and he worked counts like he was a 10 year veteran. I don’t know if the trade flipped a switch on in his head, if it was a reaction to the serious chance at major league playing time he was getting or if it was just a sharp spike in development . . .it was just crazy.

by mrkupe on Jul 16, 2025 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Agreed - he was always all tools no production. He was the one in a hundred that has actually made full use of them

by DeJay on Jul 17, 2025 5:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

right before his rookie year

I traded Hanley Ramirez for Dustin McGowan and another minor league pitcher who didnt amount to much in a keeper league. The Red Sox traded him and I thought I would too since he was losing that sweet line up around him and the park factor bonus.

woops.

I love this team again. I know they’re bad for me.
They’ll probably get drunk again and beat me… but I just can’t help myself.
by ReservoirDog on Jul 3, 2025 10:18 PM CDT

by e-gus on Jul 17, 2025 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll second that whoops

I traded him the same year, for Phil Hughes. Hunter Pence and Tom Gorzelanny. The perils of numbers-based analysis.

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

colby rasmus

he just never seemed to put it together other than for half a season at high A or double A (i can’t remember for certain) and always seemed to have some nagging injury. now he is well on his way to winning the NL rookie of the year, being a cardinals fan i just hope he can keep it up and have a long productive career in st louis.

by lopey986 on Jul 16, 2025 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Curtis Granderson

I thought he would be good a 4th outfielder and a decent stopgap starter for half a season, but I didn’t see him becoming a very good everyday player.

by Brian8603 on Jul 16, 2025 2:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is the first one that came to my mind

Although I thought that after his breakout 2007 season. I’m still not convinced he isn’t going to peak early and decline fast. I don’t like that he can’t hit lefties, and I think his swing has too many holes to hit for average. So far he has proven me wrong but I still have two more years to see if he proves me right in the end

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jul 16, 2025 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mark Reynolds

I still refuse to believe he’s any good even though evidence continues to mount to the contrary.

Granderson & Pence were good ones as well. The other way around should be interesting, I can think of a bunch off the top of my head.

by sprucemoose on Jul 16, 2025 2:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was wrong about Ben Zobrist

I was spot on with Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval though. As crazy as this sounds, I expected Lincecum to do as good as he’s done, and have a career ERA in the 2.00’s

His rookie year I didn’t expect to be so bad though, a 4.00 ERA

by Matt Rox on Jul 16, 2025 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

wow..

..and I thought I was a Lincecum fanboy. The only thing that disappointed me at all about the rookie year was the HR rate, and he nearly halved that in his first full season.

I was very skeptical on Sandoval until he hit in the Eastern League, and even then didn’t expect this kind of performance even with the bat, and expected subpar defense. Wrong, what can I say.

by wcw on Jul 16, 2025 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

I was always a huge Lincecum fan, but never expected such instant super-stardom and W/L success (look how playing for a sub-par team has screwed up Cain’s winning percentage before this year). I’d like to see some concrete evidence that you expected Lincecum to be this good this fast. It’s one thing to expect a career ERA in the 2.00’s, but something entirely different to say that you’re not surprised that he won the Cy in his first full season, is well on his way to winning it in consecutive years, and is already considered by a lot of knowledgable talent evaluators and players to be the best pitcher in baseball.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 16, 2025 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He may have expected Lincecum to have a career ERA in the 2.00's

but then I’d wager he also expected Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert and Kurt Ainsworth to as well.

by DeJay on Jul 17, 2025 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Foppert was really good before the TJ

I saw him at USF… nasty stuff.

In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK

by designatedforassignment on Jul 17, 2025 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did not expect Sandoval to be this good

I thought his appraoch would be eaten alive at the major league level. He seems to have enough contact skills to make up for it. Other than that, my record is surprisingly good. I was spot on on Delmon Young, Howie Kendrick, and Homer Bailey in the bust department, and though Gallardo would be better than both Bailey and Hughes. And I’ve always had a (then) irrational love for Carlos Quentin and Ben Zobrist. I can bring proof to this from as far back as 2006.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Jul 16, 2025 3:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thought*

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Jul 16, 2025 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

gallardo

i was right with you and wily mo from about may of 2006 onwards, but i wouldn’t close the book on either of hughes or bailey. they’ve still got near massive potential, and if edwin jackson can put everything together to do what he’s doing, there’s still hope for these two.

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on Jul 16, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

It’s much too early to give up on Bailey and Hughes. Bailey has been tremendous in AAA this year, and he’s been pretty good in his last 2 MLB outings.

by jar75 on Jul 16, 2025 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wainwright

i remember during the jd drew trade that sent him to st louis from atlanta that he was highly touted, but his injury history had spooked me. i didnt think he would reach his potential because of it, but he has been a bit of a horse for the cardinals. granted, he has had some dl time (that damn finger last year), but nothing yet of a real serious nature.

by Shi on Jul 16, 2025 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gordon Beckham

loopy swing, one breakout season, wasn’t going to be an ML SS. That was only a year ago.

I didn’t think of him much, but I never would have expected Brett Gardner to be this good.

I thought Ryan Braun would be outed for his aggressiveness. Good hitters can improve their walk rates over time.

I didn’t think Shin-Soo Choo would be capable of these numbers. Don’t ask me why.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jul 16, 2025 4:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good call on Braun

He’s another guy that has surprised me. Not that I didn’t think he’d be good at all, but his approach at the plate has definitely improved. I always saw him as a .260 hitter with good power - something like a Pat Burrell. Goes to show how much you can improve your overall line by laying off those breaking balls in the dirt…..

by guru4u on Jul 16, 2025 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's nice to see two of my guys mentioned in this thread (edwin jackson, ricky romero)

i had both those guys pegged two offseasons ago, so i’m gonna take this opportunity to pat myself on the back. i’ve actually written about romero a few times if you want to look it up.

as for guys i’ve been wrong about, clayton kershaw probably ranks near the top. he had a lot of hype, but there was something about him i just didn’t care for. he’s got some work to do before he hits #1 on the list. james mcdonald, too. i knew i was wrong about him as soon as i saw him pitch out of the bullpen last october; he’s gonna be a good one.

jeremy hellickson is another guy i never particularly cared for, but he hasn;t proven me wrong yet.

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on Jul 16, 2025 4:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Melky

This thread needs more Melky Cabrera, Mr. Sickels. :P

by GuyinNY on Jul 16, 2025 4:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think

You’re looking for the OTHER “guys you were wrong about” thread. :)

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Jul 18, 2025 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Couple A's

I was very high on both Daric Barton and Ryan Sweeney. Both have been disappointments for what I saw coming from both. Dan Haren on the other hand has far exceeded what I saw him doing - even though I liked him.

by slurve on Jul 16, 2025 5:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Daniel Cabrera

For the life of me I can’t explain what happened to him at the end. I thought he’d live up to the potential. But it’s one thing for a guy to fail. It’s another for a guy to go from throwing 97MPH in the 7th inning a couple years ago. To this year being a guy who rarely topped 89 MPH. This from a guy who is 28. Something is just not adding up. I might have been the biggest (only?) Daniel Cabrera fan in the world :(

by cowboy4eva on Jul 16, 2025 8:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not the only one...

…sadly. He has been pathetic these last couple years…I always held out hope, but I’ve finally given up.

by valley on Jul 16, 2025 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

in his wake...

he left a long trail of pitching coaches who must quiver and call their therapists at the very mention of his name. Rarely has so much raw potential turned out so lame without injury as an excuse.

by choo choo coleman on Jul 16, 2025 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The sad thing...

I was there for some of his best performances. The one thing I always noticed was that those games where he started off well he worked faster. Less time on the mound between pitches, less time walking around, ect and on those occasions he pitched much better, as he had less time to get into his own head.

It always pissed me off to no end when coaches would let him work at a more leisurely pace. If I was his PC I woulda fined him any time he took more then 5 seconds on the mound between pitches.

by ADLC on Jul 17, 2025 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Porcello?

I’m still not convinced he’ll be the great pitcher that he believes he is, but I don’t think even his biggest believers around here thought he would be pitching in the Majors at the beginning of this season and putting up solid numbers for a 1st place team.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 16, 2025 8:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Incomplete Grade

Porcello has definitely pitched well this year, but I think most of his detractors point to the low K rate in high A ball and said he’d be nothing more than a solid innings eater in the bigs. Thus far, that is what he is. Time will tell whether he continues to improve and bumps up that K rate to allow him to be an ace rather than just a solid #4 starter.

Definitely nothing but positive signs so far in the bigs though….

by guru4u on Jul 17, 2025 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matt Garza

didn’t really think very highly of him at all and he’s now a solid 3 over in Tampa

by sagecoll on Jul 16, 2025 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Garza is somebody who didn’t impress me. He’s really good.

Ironically, I thought of him as a good Twins system product kind of pitcher - and apparently it was the Twins coaching was holding him back.

by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cliff Lee

I don’t even think I need to explain. Did anyone see a 2.83 or 3.27 FIP as a possibility? I sure as hell didn’t.

by jar75 on Jul 16, 2025 8:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i never thought

he’d be that good… but he had promising k rates his first couple years coupled with bad hr and bb rates… as a tribe fan i always held out hope… but not in my wildest dreams was cliff winning a cy young

by gorilla_baller on Jul 17, 2025 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jair Jurrjens

Surprised no one has mentioned him to date. He’s probably not at the top of my list (Pedroia, Romero, Braun), but he’s close. I don’t remember him being mentioned as a groundball artist. I guess that SSS cup of coffee at the end of the 2007 season where he didn’t strike out anyone got the best of me.

by Flynn Blake on Jul 16, 2025 9:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As a Tigers fan here in Michigan, I was amazed when they traded him for Edgar Renteria. Not one of Dumbrowski’s best moves. I guess he made up for it a bit with Edwin Jackson, but they could have one hell of a rotation with Jurrjens.

And Ramon Santiago and whoever could have done as well as Renteria did for the Tigers last year. I said it in advance. WAY too RH of an offense.

by billybgame on Jul 17, 2025 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gorkys

Don’t forget, the Braves also got what turned out to be probably about half of Nate McClouth in that deal, too. :-)

by mraver on Jul 18, 2025 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shin Soo-Choo

I always thought the Mariners made a big mistake letting him go, but never did I think he would be a perennial 4-win player. Asdrubal Cabrera counts, too, I didn’t think he’d stick as a regular.

by lailaihei on Jul 16, 2025 10:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

When Choo was in the Mariners system, I thought he would end up being a AAAA player.
Also, I thought Franklin Gutierrez wouldn’t hit enough to start in the major leagues. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

by nwbb on Jul 17, 2025 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ian Kinsler

I went after Kendrick because I didn’t think Kinsler had as much upside.

by ChrisBrown on Jul 16, 2025 11:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ubaldo JImenez

I didn’t like the walks and as soon as he hit Colorado Springs and struggled I thought that was evidence his stuff wasn’t going to get the sink playing in the Rockies. He has wiped the floor with me so far

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jul 16, 2025 11:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

my favorite Ubaldo memory

I saw Ubaldo Jimenez at the Texas League (Double-A) All-Star Game a few years back in Little Rock and had great seats. I kept thinking maybe it’s because I’m not a scout, maybe it’s because the lighting was suspect since dusk was approaching, but damn, this is the hardest-throwing guy I’ve ever seen. Sure enough, fast forward to 2009 and he is leading the Major Leagues in average fastball velocity among starting pitchers (95.7 mph).

by richieabernathy on Jul 16, 2025 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Geovany Soto

Thought the “breakout” and increased power were a fluke.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Jul 16, 2025 11:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, he was just starting to find it, and up his numbers, when he got hurt.

by billybgame on Jul 17, 2025 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Thread

Adam Jones: I never thought he’d become a .290-.300 hitter with his poor BB to K numbers in the minors. I thought he might be a Juan Encarnacion at best but he’s turning out to be a good hitter. Very similar to Markakis but without 80+ BBs a year.

by UncleBuck44 on Jul 17, 2025 12:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

I’m with you here.

"That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet."

by criminal type on Jul 17, 2025 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was the first 15 year old player I saw and knew was different

I saw him play in the SD Lions Tournament as a HS soph and told the guy I went with that he was going to be a big league all star.

by realitypolice on Jul 20, 2025 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raul Ibanez

One big monster season in the Cal League, but that was it. Otherwise, the guy’s minor league stats seem to match what he’s done in the majors his whole career. I don’t know what bran muffins he ate in Kansas City, but he turned into one of the most consistent bats ever since.

In reality, he was a 290 / .350 / .475 hitter in the minors and he’s a .290 / .350 / .475 hitter in the majors. Who’d have thunk that?

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 17, 2025 12:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Aaron Hill

I thought he would be similar to Mark Grudzielanek with the bat. Solid batting average, but pedestrian-to-subpar in all other offensive production.

by sdbaseballfan on Jul 17, 2025 12:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

same here

didn’t really see that much power coming (fluke?).

I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad

Good ol' KO

by thecoolest on Jul 18, 2025 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jayson Werth. I remember looking at him back in Frederick and he was this wisp of a thing, 6-5 and 190 soaking wet. He was gonna be a slugging catcher, but I never saw it. A decade later and hes on pace for 35 HRs. (I was right for a long time though)

by ADLC on Jul 17, 2025 4:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cole Hamels

Loved the numbers, and thought he’d probably be good when he actually made it on to the field, but when the Phils first brought him up my thought was that it was only a matter of time until he suffered an injury that would keep him out for half a season or more, and I figured the injuries would just keep going. But it seems that he just needed to grow into his body, as he’s been pretty durable as a major leaguer, despite only 36 starts and 201 innings in the minors.

Lesson? Really impressive talent won’t necessarily be overwhelmed by injuries, no matter how persistent those injuries may be.

by Fanon on Jul 17, 2025 11:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jake Fox

The positional concerns still linger — and may yet steal years of production - but he’s carried over his Triple-A numbers, in part time play no less, and looks like a legit.290-.300 guy with very good power. The BA interview with him a month or so ago showed him to be thoughtful and intelligent guy (homer plug: he is a Wolverine after all) and I tend to trust a breakout more when the player can articulate the changes he’s made. Hunter Pence impressed me in the same manner when he was a prospect, and he’s made a couple of lists here. Very professional approaches to hitting.

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 12:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not buying it

He also is pretty much a DH only going forward… and that bat doesnt cut it for a guy with no glove value.

by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll see

I’ve actually seen him hit a few times and it’s a good approach. He’s simply in the wrong league at this point. I’d have relegated him to the same pile of all-bat, no-glove guys like (AZ/BOS) Chris Carter but I think he’s a far better hitter and he has more power. The only reason I included him here was because I never thought he’d cut whiffs/add walks at the Triple-A level (much less MLB) but he has. That said, there’s a good chance that we’ll never know if his bat can cut it in the bigs thanks to the truly dire positional value you mention. I just want to know, dammit!

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SSS, but his UZR suggests that he's a perfectly acceptable fielder

and his TotalZone numbers in the minors are also fine. I think you’re really overblowing the defense issue.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Jul 17, 2025 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly possible

All the reports have been bad that Ive seen.

by alskor on Jul 18, 2025 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Super small sample size though

even terrible fielders can have positive defense metrics in only 100 innings in the field. I would truct my eyes and scouting reports until getting at least 3/4 of a seasons data

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jul 20, 2025 4:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SSS indeed

Are you running defensive numbers on his Triple-A stint this year as well? I’d be interested to know how he graded out there. And yeah, combating your SSS UZR with second-hand scouting would be disingenuous, so I’ll go on the record as saying the glove is a bit of a grey area. I have seen him hit and know that he can do that extremely well. Let’s just say that if Willy Taveras has a job and Fox doesn’t, because of bias about defense or (gag) stolen base ability, something’s wrong.

by blackoutyears on Jul 20, 2025 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alexei Ramirez

Didn’t see that coming.

by alskor on Jul 17, 2025 1:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Josh Smoker, Wade Townsend

Yes, both guys were hurt, and there is no telling what Townsend could have become if he had signed after his junior year.

The Smoker debacle is the thing that kept me away from the likes of Mike Minor and Tyler Skaggs in this years draft.

by backtocali on Jul 17, 2025 1:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Skaggs?

Why down on him? From what little video I’ve seen he looked projectable and sleeperish. But then, I felt the same way about Jake Odorizzi last year and he’s been slow out of the gate this season…

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Brad Bergesen?

Man, hes at the top of my list completely. Hes pitching to a 3.50 ERA and aweome GB ratios. Hes exceeded my expectations by far. As a matter of fact, he is pitching as well in the majors as he had in the minors, and you can credit that to him adding a curve ball. I hope he keeps it up!

Another surprise is Nolan Reimold who blew up the moment he stepped onto the Big League field. His power transferred from the minors directly to the majors.

Han Ram, yes I agree with you guys too. I wasnt into the prospects then like I am now, but when looking abck at his numbers, nothing really stoof out that would make you think, “future #1 player in MLB” and that is being said thinking that Albert Pujols plays baseball in Japan, but you get the point, Han Ram blew up and exceeded every expectation.

Jesus Montero, MiLB guy who BA has rated #3 in MLB, is he really THAT good? Maybe, Im not buying it, but regardless, I labeled him 3rd tier, so hes gotta be quite a bit better than I always gave him credit for….

by QBsIllest1 on Jul 17, 2025 2:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Luis Gonzalez

I wasn’t necessarily wrong about Luis, but I probably didn’t think he’d become as good as he did. I did draft him in the 7th round of my Pursue the Pennant league way back in the late 80s, when he was a rookie.

But, I’m sure many never thought he’d account to much.

by billybgame on Jul 17, 2025 5:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Adam Lind and Jon Danks

It’s still early on Lind, and to be fair, I’ve always liked the bat but certainly didn’t see this coming this early in his career. What he’s doing now looked like a peak year to me. He’s been unbelievable in the first half.

Danks - the K rate was always there, but his career path has been odd. He’s proven to be a front of the rotation guy.

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Jul 17, 2025 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Kurt Suzuki

In no way did I expect him to be an everyday starting catcher in the bigs…much less the super impressive one he became. With Mauer in the league he doesn’t get a lot of attention, but he’s just flat-out solid. A lot like the early days of his A’s predecessor, Terry Steinbach, but with a much better bat at this stage of his career.

by BigJ7489 on Jul 17, 2025 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm curious as to why you didn't expect much from Yogi Suzuki?

Outstanding college career, high draft pick, very athletic, excellent defensively, produced through minors. He’s pretty much panned out towards the high end of what I thought he could be, and that’s a damn fine offensive catcher who’s worked extremely well with this young staff. He doesn’t have Terry Stienbach’s home run power, but that wasn’t really expected of Kurt, who does rank 13th in the league with 23 doubles.

What I was wrong about was him becoming not only one of the teams best hitters, but my favorite player, which he quickly has.

http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10

by RyanFromBonas on Jul 17, 2025 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Albert Pujols

So this might sound too easy, but this sticks in my head because I remember back in 2000, I had been getting into minor league scouting and was reading some of the player reports from various sources. The name Pujols stuck in my head as being funny and also reminding me of Luis Pujols. All the sources agreed that he’d start 2001 in AA with probably a taste of the bigs in a September call up, and just about all the sources questioned his defensive ability, his weight, and his age.

The fact that nine years later, he’s already being considered for the title of greatest right-handed hitter of all time and even greatest 1Bman of all time tells me he was a lot better than expected…

by blinkshot on Jul 17, 2025 6:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

DeWayne Wise

Just started doing good, journey man that has caught on as backup in CHiTown

I Have Spoken.

by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2025 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow...where are all the people from 2004/2005?

Robinson Cano was blasted by a ton of people when he first came up to the bigs. What he did in his down year last year was what many people said would be his best years as a major leaguer.

An even bigger knock on his was his defensive ability which has actually improved and he is having his best defensive season thus far as a major leaguer.

There were a lot of you - somebody man up and admit it……

by slickwdb on Jul 18, 2025 1:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought he was over his head then...

…and I still think it today. I haven’t given up.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2025 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re: ugh sorry for typos !

meant been…oh well, that’s what happens when you type while sick with flu.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 18, 2025 8:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

wainwright

Sure he’s no Ace, but he’s turned into a fairly strong number 3, or two, no?

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jul 18, 2025 8:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's a borderline ace

So yeah, pretty good. You can do very well with Wainwright being the best pitcher on your starting staff.

by Fanon on Jul 19, 2025 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hanley Ramirez

I was convinced he was going to be a tools bust.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 20, 2025 10:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Martin Prado

He’s great this year after a blah minor league career — where did he come from? Can I claim him as a guy who we were all wrong about?

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jul 23, 2025 10:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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