Better MLB Career - Homer Bailey or Luke Hochevar

by Wilbur Wood on May 10, 2025 8:37 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

Two once elite prospects who have had a bump or two in their ascent to MLB success. Hochevar, GB machine, has been tremendously consistent at AAA this year. Hoch was very hittable in his early MLB stints.

Homer Bailey, once the top SP prospect in the game. Some say a thrower and not a pitcher. Has had flashes of brilliance at AAA this year and was good in the spring but still he has been a bit inconsistent.

Who do folks think will have a better MLB career and why?

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Who will have a better MLB career?

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Hochevar by a mile

Bailey doesn’t have any passion for the game and doesn’t listen to coaches. Hochevar has a chance to be a #3 starter, while Bailey is going to burnout in AAA.

by Bravesin07 on May 10, 2025 9:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Does "passion for the game" matter at all?

Jeff Kent is a borderline HOFer and he has been outspoken in the past about not really liking the sport very much.

by thejd44 on May 10, 2025 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keith Foulke too

Adam Dunn allegedly

by alskor on May 11, 2025 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn

I think that’s some BS, personally. I think he just didn’t like playing in Cincy.

by Fanon on May 11, 2025 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It matters

Regardless of what Jeff Kent says, he played the game very hard. Its hard to quantify and I really have no idea how it relates to Hochevar or Bailey, but it matters a lot.

by casejud on May 11, 2025 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two different things.

I know I’ve busted my ass at jobs I absolutely hated just because that’s the way I am. Passion for the game and work ethic are not the same. I think what Bravesin07 really wants to criticize is Bailey’s work ethic (right or wrong, who knows). As you say, Kent took his job seriously and worked at his craft.

So then the next question: If Bailey’s work ethic is a problem, why? Some guys just don’t have it, and others don’t have it in certain environments. Could Bailey be a change of scenery case?

by thejd44 on May 12, 2025 4:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kent

Jeff Kent is outspoken about not liking anything very much.

by Fanon on May 11, 2025 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar...

and the only people who considered Bailey the top SP prospect in baseball were vastly overrating him.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on May 10, 2025 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

easy to say now

by soxkid on May 11, 2025 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

next poll should be who will have a better career Phil Hughes or Homer Bailey

I think Hughes is the next Paul Wilson

by Bravesin07 on May 10, 2025 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wilson

Wilson was fine until he got hurt, and then turned into what he did when he couldn’t get his velocity back up. Hughes is more likely to go the way of Isringhausen (they even share the curveball).

by Fanon on May 11, 2025 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Homer is a head case.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 10, 2025 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and his mechanics suck.

Go Rangers...don't suck...

by Kinslerhomer on May 10, 2025 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im a little suprised its not closer

I voted Hochevar… big Hochevar fanboy. I think he’s going to be very, very good… Groundball machine w/ good amount of Ks.

At their best, I think Bailey’s best is better than Hochevar’s… and I would certainly concede Bailey’s ceiling is higher. BUT… I think the comments above sum up pretty well what I find lacking in Bailey. Attitude, Mechanics, Consistency… and I would add Great American Ballpark and Dusty Baker.

by alskor on May 10, 2025 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ground Ball Machine?

When did this tagline get attached to him? This isn’t the first time I’ve read it, which is why I had to go look up the numbers. He clearly wasn’t a GB machine when drafted, and the 40-43% rates in 06 and most of 07 back that up. He had a short stint in the bigs at the end of 07 and started to induce GB’s, albeit over a 12 inn sample. Then he improved to 53% last year, which is solid. Now he’s 63% in the minors, again, over a small sample. Has he changed his approach? Any insight?

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on May 11, 2025 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no two seamer in 06/07

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on May 11, 2025 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His stuff was always supposed to get groundballs

That’s what he was heralded as after the draft.

by alskor on May 12, 2025 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bailey could be Burnett

I’ve always liked A.J. Burnett as a comp for Bailey, and still see no reason why it couldn’t come true. Hopefully with less health woes for Bailey. I don’t see that upside in Hochevar.

by aap212 on May 11, 2025 2:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Erm

Aren’t the health woes a big part of the comp?

by Fanon on May 11, 2025 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily

Similarly built righthander with power arsenal and widely reported makeup issues, who takes a little time to put it together. Walk issues in the minors, strikeout rates that take time to translate to the major league level.

by aap212 on May 11, 2025 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With his mechanics

Aren’t the health problems a big possibility?

by demondeaconsbaseball on May 12, 2025 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

But health problems are a big possibility for any pitcher, and there are plenty of guys with awkward mechanics that most of us would take over either of these guys.

Also, again, I see a low enough upside on Hochevar that I would rather gamble on Bailey’s upside, along with the risk that entails.

by aap212 on May 12, 2025 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar's got a low upside compared to Bailey?

When Homer hasn’t done anything of note since ’07? And right now has the same WHIP he did last year: 1.47. Ugly.

Right now Bailey looks like a reliever to me, while Hochevar looks like a solid innings eating groundball type.

by Fanon on May 12, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One man's opinion

I’m not ignoring Bailey’s poor recent performance. I think he has a much greater chance of failing completely than Hochevar. I just think Bailey has a much better chance of being a 2-3 starter, and I don’t like Hochevar’s upside or probability or upside quite enough for me to prefer him. I’d love to have either guy on my team, and I’m not 100% confident in either guy. Like I said, one man’s opinion.

by aap212 on May 12, 2025 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hochevar

If for no other reason than the fact that if Bailey is lucky enough to pull it together and become a really solid major league pitcher, Dusty will promptly proceed to rip his arm off and beat him over the head for it for not being able to throw 200 pitches a game like they could in the good old days when Moxy was the drink of choice.

by Fanon on May 11, 2025 3:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good question

Probably have to go with Hochevar. The draft-related layoff set him back for a while, I think, along with some “interesting” development decisions by the Royals. Now that he’s gotten some time to stabilize, we’re starting to see the real Hochevar . . .which looks like a solid innings-eater who throws tons of strikes.

Bailey was NEVER the top SP prospect in the game. I think at one point he might’ve made my top 5. Really good fastball, everything else was consistently inconsistent. Profile is very similar to that of a certain other ballyhooed prospect currently going through his own adjustment woes in Oklahoma City . . .

by mrkupe on May 11, 2025 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh your not high on Feliz?

by Bravesin07 on May 11, 2025 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not especially.

I think he’s a good prospect, great arm. But I don’t think he’s one of the very best pitching prospects in the game right now, and he wasn’t one last year. He has a fastball that would grade out well against MLB hitters, but what else does he bring to the table? It’s not just that his game is lacking in polish (which wouldn’t be a terrible thing really given his age). . .I don’t really see what you can project for him, either. Actually, Bailey at the same age had the makings of better secondary pitches than Feliz, and the fastball command was comparable.

I see Feliz as a 3 given present projection, with the note that the projection is exceptionally fluid given his age. I could see him projecting better out of the pen, which would play up his strengths and cover his flaws.

And . . .just to clarify. I don’t hate on Rangers pitching prospects - there’s a few I really like. I was a bit skeptical of Holland being able to maintain his stuff this year, but he looks good. Lefties with plus-plus velocity, a good secondary pitch and the willingness to attack the strike zone are a lovely thing. Also a fan of Blake Beavan - I know there’s some folks who like him better out of the pen, but again, fills the zone with solid stuff and enough secondary stuff to be a very nice player in some capacity.

by mrkupe on May 11, 2025 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bailey

this would assume both have a MLB “career”. If both have a career, Bailey has the higher ceiling. Funny how everyone has given up on him. Great buy low time.

by TCapone30 on May 11, 2025 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sure... but lets not forget that both these guys are great buy low candidates

Hochevar was the 1st overall pick, twice a first round pick and much more highly regarded as an amateur than Bailey.

The Royals kind of screwed with him, but he’s actually the guy with the better pedigree got excited for when he was drafted, then gave up on when his minor league numbers werent great (the Royals wouldnt let him throw his out pitch IIRC, same as Porcello), then got excited for when he came up last year, then everybody jumped ship again when he didnt immediately dominate. Luke Hochevar is the prototypical buy low candidate. He has the chance to be a very, very good pitcher and his floor isnt bad at all. He’s still underhyped because he doesnt fit the strikeout machine mold that the fantasy crowd wants.

by alskor on May 11, 2025 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth, Hochevar got ROCKED tonight in Oakland

8 runs in 2 innings. All 8 were earned, including an absolute bomb served up to Jack Cust on a hanging breaking ball. But that wasn’t his worst pitch. The worst might have been an 0-2 BP fastball right down the middle to Holliday. It only resulted in a single up the middle, but it was pretty indicative of the entire short outing. He just didn’t look good at all tonight.

by thejd44 on May 12, 2025 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs