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2009 Amateur Draft Mock #1

This is the first installment of my mock drafts to come between now and June 9.  There's obviously some movement that will occur between now and then, so don't be alarmed by what you see.  I'm pretty sure you will all be pretty shocked by who I have at #10, but keep in mind that Washington is projected to pay 8 figures to Steven Strasburg, meaning an economical college pick is quite likely for their next pick.  Without further ado, here's my mock:

 

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - This is an obvious choice.  I expect negotiations into mid-July and a month in the Majors.
2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B-CF, North Carolina - You know it's a tricky draft when there's no one that profiles as a true #2 pick.  Ackley has added good pop this year, and while he hasn't been able to get back out to center field, there's still some chance of that happening in the long-term.  Having a John Olerud-type first baseman isn't bad either.
3. San Diego - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Matzek is the most polished of the high-profile high school pitchers, but he doesn't necessarily have the best arm.  That being said, he'll probably go highest due to his advanced arsenal and extensive history.
4. Pittsburgh - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - White has been on the prospect radar for quite awhile now, and his junior year has been good enough to keep him in the top 5.  Pittsburgh has a histroy with college pitchers, and one can only hope the huge workload at UNC won't catch up to him.
5. Baltimore - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - Crow is one of the unknowns at this point, as he hasn't even taken the mound yet in Indy ball.  On pure stuff, he's second behind Strasburg, but the layoff might hurt him.  However, it's a weaker draft than 2008, so he'll likely slot higher with a solid run in Ft. Worth.
6. San Francisco - Grant Green, SS, USC - Green was projected as high as #2 entering the season, but fielding problems and a lack of development in the power department has hurt him.  Granted, he's still one of the hottest hitters in college baseball at the moment, but it will take some hard work to guarantee a top 5 spot come June.
7. Atlanta - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - This almost seems too obvious.  The Braves have an affinity for players from their own state, and the only question here to me is whether they go with Tate or a high school arm.  They're very proficient selecting high school arms in the later rounds, so I think they go with the huge upside of Tate, signing him away from his UNC commitment.
8. Cincinnati - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - Gibson has been better than any college pitcher not named Strasburg this year, and that has launched him firmly into the top ten.  However, he's not very refined for a college pitcher, and lingering questions about his mechanics means he's behind White and Crow, at least for now.
9. Detroit - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - Miller might have the best pure arm of any high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and Detroit's not shy with its love of flamethrowers like him.  He's got true ace potential, but with less refinement than his high school counterparts expected to go in Round 1.
10. Washington - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - I know, I know.  Poythress is not a top ten talent.  However, with Strasburg's bonus and Poythress' huge coming out party this year, this is a solid pick for a team that might want quick returns.  Poythress isn't on the level of an Alonso or Smoak, but I can easily see him being as good as David Cooper, who went #17 overall last year in a deeper draft.
11. Colorado - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX) - When scouts are failing your mechanics with the eyeball test, you know you'll need some work.  Purke has a great arm, probably better than Tyler Matzek's, but he'll need to clean up some things before seeing success at higher levels.  Colorado is a little hard to project, but if Purke is on the board here, expect them to snatch him up.
12. Kansas City - Luke Bailey, C, LaGrange HS (GA) - Despite facing a challenge as the top high school catcher in the 2009 draft, Bailey has held his ground.  That's very impressive considering who he's up against.  His bat is good, his glove is good, and he's dealt with intense scrutiny for a few years now.  Solid pick at #12.
13. Oakland - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - If Fresno State hadn't run his arm into the ground, we wouldn't be having this discussion.  When Scheppers comes back with a strong Indy showing, expect him to be popped in the first 15, despite it being a strong year for college pitching.  He's that good when healthy.
14. Texas - Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA) - Even though Bailey will probably go higher, no high school hitter has had a better year than Stassi.  He'll be the best player on the board at this point, and Texas has been known to pop the best available guy regardless of position.  It's possible Stassi hits his way into the top ten.
15. Cleveland - Mychal Givens, RHP, Plant HS (FL) - As much as I think Givens will be this year's Anthony Hewitt, there's too much talent in his body to ignore.  His fastball rates up there with anyone's, and his upside is enormous.  Teams might even want to try him in the field.  Combine the two, and you have a guy in the top 15 with a high bust rate, but with a high ceiling.
16. Arizona - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - I don't think Oliver necessarily deserves to even be this high, but considering he's fallen probably ten slots in less than two months, someone will take him on upside alone.  The whole NCAA debocle must have taken its toll on him, so there has to be some slack given to him.  This would be a solid pick in the first of back-to-back picks for Arizona.
17. Arizona - Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA) - Davidson is right up there with Stassi in terms of performance in his senior year.  Known as one of the most powerful prep bats available, Davidson profiles to at least be in the top 20.  Give him some time, and you might have a Matt Williams-type masher.
18. Florida - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Florida has to take a high schooler.  I'm pretty sure it's written on all internal memos.  Their 2006 experiment with a college pitcher failed (Brett Sinkbeil), so I expect them to go with best available high school player, which is Wheeler.  He's got a great arsenal, and good upside.
19. St. Louis - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State - I considered putting local Jacob Turner in this slot, but I think Leake is too good to pass up.  He profiles as a #2 or 3 in the long run, but he'll get there quickly.  Good command of multiple pitches is what makes him the most successful Pac-10 pitcher outside of Josh Spence.
20. Toronto - Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA) - Skaggs is your normal projectable high school lefty, who can either dominate or be mediocre on any given day.  His great early-season showing, combined with solid starts the rest of the way, will land him squarely in the last half of the first round.  It's just a matter of the Blue Jays buying into high school pitching.
21. Houston - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor - He hasn't exactly met expectations, but Volz has had a decent junior year.  If they have the chance, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston jumped on the Texas native.  His stuff is pretty good for a college starter, but don't be surprised if he's a shutdown reliever in the pros.
22. Minnesota - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - Turner can hold his own with the other high-profile arms in the draft, but it's all about perception.  Not having come from the California-Texas-Florida-Georgia mold, Turner has been slightly less heralded than his counterparts.  However, the Twins are adept at finding these type of kids and turning them into studs, so this is a likely scenario.
23. Chicago (AL) - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - I'll take some flack for this, but I think Mitchell is one of the most improved, and most gifted, outfielders in the entire draft.  He's seeing the ball much better than earlier in his career, and the power and speed are starting to really come through in games.  He's pushed his way into the late 1st round, and Chicago isn't afraid to invest in highly-improved college hitters (see Beckham, Gordon).
24. Los Angeles (AL) - Jason Stoffel, RHP, Arizona - After a huge college reliever group last year, this year's crop seems quite insignificant.  Stoffel has been challenged as the top of this year's group, but he remains the most likely to have success in the pros.  The Angels have back-to-back picks here, so they'll decide who they want to slot in which spot based on money.
25. Los Angeles (AL) - Brian Goodwin, OF, Rocky Mount HS (NC) - Goodwin is generally considered a first round talent, though he could easily go higher than #25.  BA has called him a potential five-tool player, though he'll take considerable refinement to get there.  The Angels love their speedy outfielders, so we'll see if Goodwin is available when their turns come around.
26. Milwaukee - Austin Maddox, C, Eagle's View Academy (FL) - With a new scouting director, it's tough to know exactly what Milwaukee will do.  They traditionally love heady high school hitters, and Maddox fits that bill well.  He's a true first round talent, but has his questions.  He'll take considerable work to make it as a catcher and hitter, but the talent is there.
27. Seattle - Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State - I thought Heckathorn was pitching his way out of the first couple of rounds early in the season, but his first round stuff has come back lately.  Seattle is tougher to project here, but picking a high-upside college pitcher is the type of thing that limits risk while leaving at least a little potential for greatness.  Heckathorn could slide out of the first round with a couple of rough showings.
28. Boston - Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State - I can't get enough of this guy, as he's slowly moved his way into first round consideration.  He's got good tools, and has matched that with performance this year.  He hasn't played a lot of good competition, meaning he might need an adjustment period, but he's one of the few college bats in the 2009 draft that profiles for above-average power without completely losing defensive value.
29. New York (AL) - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC) - If you loved the Gerrit Cole pick last year, you'll love Younginer just as much.  The kid has a mid-90s fastball, reaches even higher, and hasn't been overused in high school.  He's committed to Clemson quite strongly, meaning a team with a larger budget might need to open the pocketbook, but he doesn't seem as locked in to school as Cole was last season.  Expect him to sign.
30. Tampa Bay - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA) - I don't know what it is, but this kid has just grabbed everyone's attention this year.  He's beaten out Devan Marrero as the best prep shortstop so far this year, and there's really nothing to hate about him.  Tampa Bay will be picking down here for awhile, so expect them to tab either surefire college pitching or high-upside hitters like Mier.
31. Chicago (NL) - AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame - People have been intrigued with Pollock's skillset since he came to Notre Dame, but he's been a little disappointing.  He sits squarely behind Tim Wheeler in my mind at this point, but a team like the Cubs that values pure talent over polish will grab him in the late first to supplemental round.
32. Colorado - Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL) - Even though an argument can be made that Colorado doesn't need any more corner infielders, Borchering is far enough away that a space will clear if he succeeds in the minors.  He's got a power bat, but with its mechanical kinks, it will need some adjustments.  Colorado usually likes the prep hitters, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab Borchering with the last pick of the first round.

 

 

So there's my first mock.  You'll notice the omissions of Mike Minor, Kentrail Davis, DJ LeMahieu, and Ben Tootle.  All are quality players, and I have them tabbed as supplemental picks, as well as Robbie Shields.  All have disappointed in their own way.

 

What do you think?

8 recs | Comment 80 comments

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Man

I sure hope Green reaches SF!

by Matt Rox on Apr 14, 2025 6:01 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

my guy is, and has been, kyle gibson

there’s just something about him that i noticed in his sophomore year, and though i have yet to quantify it, i’m having a lot of fun watching it.

i might be premature in thinking this, but i’d rather have gibson right now, than crow.

brian mccann: derek lowe's got the best slider i've ever seen
john smoltz: yeah? and josh bard's the best catcher i've ever thrown to.

by variablesdont on Apr 14, 2025 6:03 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I’ve heard awful things about Crow’s mechanics. Plus, Gibson is red hot right now.

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 6:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, it depends on what you prefer.

Both Crow and Gibson have mechanical issues. However, Crow isn’t coming off the workload that Gibson will be when June rolls around. Gibson’s workload has been eerily reminiscent of Tanner Scheppers’ last year.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 6:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

crow's workload was just as horrendous last season

and i’m pretty sure he’s a lot more of an injury risk, because of his taking a year off. from what i’ve seen, injured arms don’t go away with rest. they might get a little better, but they eventually explode, just the same.

i don’t see that being as imminent an issue with gibson, as it was with crow last season (at least not yet).

brian mccann: derek lowe's got the best slider i've ever seen
john smoltz: yeah? and josh bard's the best catcher i've ever thrown to.

by variablesdont on Apr 14, 2025 6:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you realize

that you can say that almost any pitcher has “mechanic issues”

Gibson’s mechanics are a strong suite of his, however.

by jsmall404 on Apr 15, 2025 3:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They're not a strong suit.

His mechanics, while seemingly smooth, are upper-body reliant. Unless he’s really learned to drive with his legs more, which I haven’t read about anywhere nor seen in video, his mechanics aren’t perfect. They’re not Crow-like, but they’re not great.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 3:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah

I feel as though it is nit picking to say he dosent drive with his legs well enough..that is very fixable. Everything I have read has his mechanics being solid. Obviously hardly anyones is perfect.

by jsmall404 on Apr 15, 2025 5:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What do you think of Phegley?

Josh Phegley, out of Indiana. I know it’s not the biggest powerhouse, but I hear great things about him and I’ve seen him going as high as 5 in some drafts. What’s your opinion?

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 6:06 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's a 2nd round talent.

Probably the first half. Tony Sanchez of Boston College has pushed his way above him. Before he got hurt, Tommy Medica of Santa Clara was in that conversation, too.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 6:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK Thanks for the quick reply!

Also, who do you think are the “safest” picks right now? Safest pitchers? Safest hitters?

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 6:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Safest as in most likely to reach their ceiling?

Strasburg, Ackley, Alex White, Aaron Crow, and Tanner Scheppers are all pretty likely to at least reach the majors. You might begin to throw Rich Poythress in there, too. However, as John always says on here, the attrition rate of pitchers in the minors is so huge that it’s hard to really predict a prospect if the injury bug bites.

All in all, this is a draft that has average talent compared to most drafts, but is largely devoid of the sure things outside of the ones I mention above. Most guys are upside talents who will take awhile to get there. Lots of high school pitching and catching, lots of college pitching with relatively high ceilings. This can easily be a boom or bust draft when we look at it 5-10 years from now.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 6:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks

I had more meant “safest” as players who had high floors and if a lot of things went wrong would end up settling as decent ML starters.

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 6:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t think Cole is draft-eligable. He’s only a freshman at UCLA

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 6:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Andy

One more question. Who do you see as fast-risers out of this draft. Other than Mike Leake?

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 6:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Strasburg of course.

And White has the pitch mix to move quickly. As far as hitters, Ackley is definitely the best choice for a quick mover, but if Jared Mitchell keeps it together, he could be a force more quickly than people think.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 6:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder how the economy is going to affect the draft this year. There might be some interesting choices made this year for purely economic reasons by the teams that usually avoid that folly.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Apr 14, 2025 6:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, that's true.

I’d think the large-market teams will have a greater advantage than usual this year.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 6:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep. As for the top 10:

1. I imagine the PR nightmare the Nats would have if they didn’t take strasburg will force them to take him, even if the money is a problem. Pick 10 might be a different story, though.

2. Seattle: From the outside, they don’t seem too cash strapped, and do not seem in any great fear of being so, so it will probably be business as usual (and hopefully for mariners fans, that doesn’t mean a reliever).

3. SD. Any SD fans here who can shed light on how things are going on this front for the pads? They seem to want to dump salary, but not so much so as to punt the pick. How has attendance been so far, and how are ST sales?

4. Again, any Pitt fans here have insight? I’d be a bit worried for them, but that might be because the word ‘disaster’ comes to mind whenever Pirates and the draft meet (though hopefully those days are past)

5. Same for Baltimore: how is their economic forecast?

6. San Francisco: Money is no problem at all.

7. Atlanta: money doesn’t seem to be an issue.

8. Cincinnati: I have no clue what their economic situation is.

9. Detroit: As cash strapped as they are, this might get ugly. How are ST sales and attendance this year?

10. Washington: This pick screams safe and cheap. Money is an issue to begin with, and Strasburg with Boras will exact a hefty ransom. Add to it, that there is no compensation if they don’t sign the pick, and mid to late first round talent who will sign for slot, here we go!

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Apr 14, 2025 7:15 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pads

They have new ownership, so money is much less of an issue now.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 7:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reportedly, money is still tight but they have budgeted $6m for the 3rd pick.

Season tix are WAY down but attendence is surprisingly strong… They won’t go cheap here.

by pffriberg on Apr 15, 2025 2:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pirates

I have increasing faith in the Pirates’ FO to make good draft decisions. I don’t know a ton about White, but the system’s thin on pitching, and considering White would only be a year or two away when drafted, I could see the fit there.

by jseiner on Apr 14, 2025 8:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I really cant see the A's taking another SP

when they have so many young SP who will be big league ready this season or next and a few more guys coming along nicely. The A’s lack any true power potential save for Chris Carter so I think the best power bat available would be a good decision. Preferably a third baseman because that is a true black hole in the A’s system.

by diehardoaklandfan22 on Apr 14, 2025 8:10 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You have to go with best player available.

Matt Davidson would probably be a reach up at #13, and Stassi would be the only one on my board at that point that wouldn’t be considered an overdraft. This is a pitchers’ draft, so teams shouldn’t be worrying about positions as much as who is the best choice for their team.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 8:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I would like to see the A’s go for someone like Davidson, but he would be a reach at that point if there is a quality pitcher available. Remember, trades can totally change an organization. That’s how the A’s got Carter in the first place.

by asyouwish33 on Apr 15, 2025 1:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Best Hitter, yes

Oakland knows it is short on impact position players, and there will be plenty left on the board at 13. I can’t see them taking any pitcher unless it’s a Top 5 guy that falls. Also, the A’s won’t make their second pick until the third round, so they’re a good bet to exceed slot at #13. I doubt they’ll go safe.

by ToddyBaseball on Apr 15, 2025 1:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn't put in a college pitcher because it's safe.

I put in a college pitcher because he’ll be the best available player overall at that point. Scheppers is a top ten talent when healthy. I think he’ll prove that in Indy ball.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 1:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gotcha

Okay, we just disagree. For the A’s, college pitching is safe. I disagree that Scheppers’s talent puts him in the top ten, but he’s close enough to argue for it.

I see this as a year the A’s select a prep bat in the first round, for all the reasons I cited above. And given the nature of this draft class I think there will be plenty of grey area regarding the top talent on the board at #5 and moreso at #13.

by ToddyBaseball on Apr 16, 2025 12:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

*when healthy

The A’s are a bit gun-shy on players like that these days

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Apr 16, 2025 12:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Davidson

but hasn’t he committed to USC?

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Apr 16, 2025 12:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes.

Most of the major high school prospects have commitments to strong college programs, though the vast majority are considered signable. Donovan Tate, Jacob Turner, and Brian Goodwin are all UNC signees, and there’s also Florida, Oregon, UCLA, and USC stronger commitments mixed in. There’s no Gerrit Cole of this draft so far it seems. Jacob Turner reminds me a bit of Tim Melville, in that he’ll need a larger bonus no matter where he goes.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 16, 2025 1:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very nice..

I like Poythress at 10. I don’t see how Kentrail can get past Colorado twice in the first round, even with his somewhat mediocre season so far. I think Oakland will go with a position player over a pitcher like what dieharkoaklandfan22 said.
Great job though.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by garrioch13 on Apr 14, 2025 8:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You really think Kentrail Davis is still a first rounder?

Getting into the first round was pretty much dependent on him improving pitch recognition and turning talent into skills, and he hasn’t done that. And usually draft-eligible sophomores drop due to signability issues unless they’re surefire first rounders. Davis is not that.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 8:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I do.

I don’t think all teams see him that way, but I do believe he is a 1st rd talent. The sophomore signability may come into account and he may drop, but I have a strong feeling he’ll still go high.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by garrioch13 on Apr 14, 2025 8:48 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this chris davis can fkn hit.

brian mccann: derek lowe's got the best slider i've ever seen
john smoltz: yeah? and josh bard's the best catcher i've ever thrown to.

by variablesdont on Apr 14, 2025 8:54 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i think this comment was supposed to be in the daily thread.

brian mccann: derek lowe's got the best slider i've ever seen
john smoltz: yeah? and josh bard's the best catcher i've ever thrown to.

by variablesdont on Apr 15, 2025 7:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I had a friend in high school who always talked about his friend from Yuba City being amazing

but this guy always was over the top so I never believed anything he said. Apparently he was right at least this time. I’d say a potential top 15 draft selection is pretty good.

Then again the guy from my high school said he was almost as good as Stassi, but instead of continueing his baseball career he served a few months in prison for dealing cocain. Idiot.

by diehardoaklandfan22 on Apr 14, 2025 9:25 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

very interesting

thanks.

not sure i’d be in favor of my Royals taking a HS catcher in the first round, but I really don’t know that much about Bailey either.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Apr 14, 2025 10:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1 on the opinion for Royals pick

I see KC leaning toward a pitcher. It is the strength of the draft. KC could pick one of the top 4 HS pitchers or look for a college arm that drops due to signability. Just don’t see KC going with HS catcher with #12 overall. I believe they like their young catchers in S. Perez, Bonilla, and McCauley. Also they signed young Korean catcher for around $600K. Never have enough young starting pitchers.

by daveyork on Apr 18, 2025 8:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One major omission

is Brett Jackson. He came into the season with tools that ranked with anyone but disappointing power in his college career. The power’s shown up this year, with 22 of his 46 hits going for extra bases, including 7 HRs. He’s struck out more than you’d like, but I think he’s still a late first rounder for sure. He, Green, and Ackley are the only potential 5-tool college guys this year.

by slamcactus on Apr 14, 2025 10:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eh

I wouldn’t say Jackson is first round for sure. I think he’d fit in the 2nd round more likely, maybe 1st Comp. round

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by gore51 on Apr 14, 2025 11:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's in the early part of the supplemental round to me.

Unless a team is willing to take on the huge risk in terms of the bonus he’d receive in the first, no one will want him that high. His game has been really exposed by mediocre pitching. He’s great if you’re looking for tools, but you don’t want an all-tools, little polish 21 year old as your first rounder.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 14, 2025 11:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know about the Brewers picking another high school catcher.

Two of the Brewers top prospects are catchers(Angel Salome, Jonathon Lucroy), and another top prospect (Brett Lawrie) was just moved from catcher to second base. Though I suppose Milwaukee does have a tendency to switch players from position to position a lot.

:) + Suppan = :'(

by NoahJ on Apr 14, 2025 11:07 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jason Kipnis

Not a first-round pick? I don’t know, I’m just asking.

I do know he’s a 5-tool CF (well maybe not an above-average arm)…

by pffriberg on Apr 15, 2025 2:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's a supplemental to 2nd round guy.

And as a senior sign, he might go quickly in the supplemental round. I wouldn’t call him a 5 tool guy at all, but he’s an improved player this year. Someone will be very happy with him.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 11:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's not a senior

He was a draft-eligible sophomre last year…

by pffriberg on Apr 15, 2025 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I remembered that right after I typed it.

It’s the same sort of concept, though. 22 year old juniors have a lot less leverage than 21 year old guys, as going back to school again has almost no benefit. He’ll sign at slot or lower.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 11:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Canadian Content

Thanks for the mock. I don’t see the Jays taking a high school arm in the first round. Ricciardi is not averse to high schoolers, but he is averse to high school pitchers. I could easily see them tabbing Brian Goodwin if the first 19 picks go as you see them. I could also see the Jays tabbing the top Canadian player in the pool, James Paxton of U. Kentucky - any thoughts on him? He has some helium, and some high southpaw heat.

by ofsticksandbats on Apr 15, 2025 10:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Paxton

He was on the rise early, but he’s fallen on his face in general. Great stuff, bad results. That’s not always a sign of things to come, but he’s probably played himself down to the supplemental round, maybe early 2nd. Any lefty that can hit 97 is coveted by most teams, but with his knee soreness, I’d wait to see how the rest of his season plays out.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Atlanta will draft an arm. Possibly even a college arm.

I can definitely see them taking Tate; but at the same time, they’ve got a lot of money invested in Chipper and Derek Lowe, so if they could add a player that could make an major impact while those two were still productive, I would think they would try to go that direction.

The Braves really don’t draft based on need, but you have to look at their OF situation and wonder if they’d really use another first round pick on an outfielder. That may partially depend on the performance of a few guys, but by June the Braves will have a better idea of what they have with Francoeur, Brandon Jones, Gorkys Hernandez and Cody Johnson.

All that is the long way of saying if Kyle Gibson were to drop to the Braves, I don’t think they’d pass him up; even if they usually don’t like to draft college arms.

Tommy Hanson 4 ROY

by timmy3 on Apr 15, 2025 1:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Braves have a great handle on pitching mechanics.

So I see them passing on Gibson, who has some issues, though it’s not like his arm will fall off in a year. If they’re going to pick a college pitcher, it will be someone who has no issues with mechanics. I think they’d pick Shelby Miller before they tab Gibson, just as an organizational philosophy. They’ve got a great wave of talent coming up in a tiered fashion, which is exactly how they like to build, so they’ll draft whoever is best at that slot, regardless of their ML team.

Imagine this team:
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Kelly Johnson
SS: Yunel Escobar
3B: Chipper Jones/Brandon Hicks (depending on Chipper’s availability)
C: Brian McCann
LF: Donovan Tate
CF: Jordan Schafer
RF: Jason Heyward
Bench: Gorkys Hernandez, Cody Johnson, Eric Campbell, catcher, Travis Jones
SP: Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Derek Lowe
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Boone Logan, Stephen Marek, Charlie Morton, Mike Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, James Parr

That’s realistic a couple years from now…

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 1:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And that’s before you even get to Zeke Spruill, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Brett DeVall…

Tommy Hanson 4 ROY

by timmy3 on Apr 15, 2025 2:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indeed

JJ Hoover, Steve Evarts, blah, blah, blah. Embarrassing.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 2:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chris Davis???

"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.

by Kinslerhomer on Apr 16, 2025 7:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Poythress

Kid is putting up MONSTER numbers this year. He actually reminds me a lot of Beckham last year - shooting up the charts with an incredible junior year. I actually like the pick for the Nats at 10. I know they really don’t need another corner guy, but he should be signable and he is a top 20 or so talent.

by guru4u on Apr 15, 2025 4:28 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jared mitchell

hmm doesnt seem to have that much power..pretty poor BB/K rates..doesn’t seem like more than a one dimensional speed guy to me

by mjr20 on Apr 15, 2025 7:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look at this year.

He’s improved drastically. You’re probably only looking at previous years, even though he also improved freshman to sophomore year, too.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2025 7:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

k

i cannot find the exact stats for this year, but i did come across a couple of insightful articles and it seems like he made improvements, some are saying he could push the top 15…. seems pretty good

by mjr20 on Apr 15, 2025 8:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Stellar job

One qualm- i don’t know if the Tigers will necessarily take a pitcher with the 9 pick. I could definitely see them taking an elite hitter if one falls due to signability concerns (20 million at least will come off the books with Maggs walking, and I wouldn’t doubt that we’ll be dealing vets in the offseason). We definitely need position players- even if you think the Tiger farm system is barren (which it is), we have more arms than bats.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Apr 15, 2025 11:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair point.

I just don’t see a position prospect being worth that #9 slot if the guys I have going higher are off the board. Bailey and Stassi could work their way up there, but if the draft is tomorrow, they’re not worthy of that slot. Doesn’t mean Detroit wouldn’t take them, just means I think they’re not good enough to overtake those ahead of them.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 16, 2025 12:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As a Brewers fan, I don’t quite understand the need for a catcher that early, but amazing work! Very impressed you got all this figured :)

PensBurgh penalty - Lavender - 2 minutes for hijynxing.

by Lavender on Apr 16, 2025 5:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mike Leake

I think this pick makes the most sense of the mocks I’ve seen for the Cardinals. They have shown a liking for guys who fall due to their size(Todd in ’07, Gorgen last year), as well as polished college righties. It would be the second consecutive #1 pick from ASU. Thumbs up on this pick, though Turner would probably be more of a crowd pleaser.

In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.

"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.

"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.

"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG

by mateodh on Apr 16, 2025 9:50 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Update from today at BA chat:
Jim Callis: We’re hearing that Georgia high school righthander Zack Wheeler won’t get out of the top 10 picks. If that’s true, the Braves seem like the most natural candidate to take him.

That’s some major helium. I still don’t see that happening, but expect him to move up in my next mock barring an unexpected development.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 17, 2025 4:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wheeler

I pretty much figured he would get picked in the top 15 after seeing him in the AFLAC game last August. There isn’t much to dislike about him. Outstanding fastball/curve combo, 6’4" about 180, a commitment to Kennesaw State. I can only guess his dad is the coach there.
I can easily see the Braves going after him if Tate isn’t there and I really don’t think Tate will be there but that is just my opinion. He’s a damn good player.

by UncleBuck44 on Apr 20, 2025 4:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree on Wheeler

I thought he would be a mear top 10 pick…

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Apr 20, 2025 8:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kyle Gibson

will never get past Andy McPhail the birds are Growing arms and buying bats, and I believe and hav heard that Gibson my be a better pro then Strasburg

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Apr 19, 2025 3:10 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hav heard that Gibson my be a better pro then Strasburg

Whoever told you that is simply in denial about not getting Strasburg.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 19, 2025 5:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

time will tell

..hard to make a final conclusion on thier careers before they even start I quess.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Apr 20, 2025 8:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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