The Recent History of Catching Prospects, PART ONE

by John Sickels on Jan 23, 2026 12:06 AM EST Comment 34 comments

PART ONE: Top Catching Prospects, 1995-2004.

Here is a look at the Top Catching Prospects in baseball over a fourteen year period, as identified in the STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook (1995-2002) and the Baseball Prospect Book (2003-2008). My friend Eddie Epstein wrote the ’95 edition of the old STATS book, and I wrote the subsequent editions until STATS dropped the book. I began to self-publish in 2003.. Here are the catchers who appeared on the Top 50 prospects lists.

1995 (Eddie Epstein list)

Charles Johnson, Grade A: Career .245/.330/.433 in 3836 at-bats.

Raul Casanova, Grade A-: Career .236/.304/.379 in 1081 at-bats.

Todd Greene, Grade B+: Career .252/.286/.444 in 1573 at-bats.

COMMENT: Johnson of course had a long and productive career with a decent bat and strong defense. Casanova never lived up to his early potential, partly due to injuries, but is still hanging around as a backup catcher. Greene was a converted outfielder with a power bat and bad plate discipline. He had a decent run as a bench player in the mid-2000s.

1996

Jose (Javier) Valentin, Grade A: Career .251/.310/.402 in 1507 at-bats.

Mike Sweeney, Grade A-: Career .299/.368/.489 in 4795 at-bats.

Jason Kendall: Grade A-: Career .293/.371/.388 in 6741 at-bats.

Todd Greene, Grade B+: see above.

COMMENT: Valentin’s bat stagnated when he reached Double-A, and he struggled offensively upon reaching the majors in 1998 at age 22. He’s carved out a career as a backup. Sweeney converted to first base and was one of the best hitters in baseball for awhile. Kendall was excellent from 1996 through 2000 but began declining after that, worn down by the position.

1997:

Mike Sweeney, Grade A-: See above.

Javier Valentin, Grade B+: See above.

Pat Cline, Grade B+: Never reached the majors.

COMMENT: Cline was a very solid prospect 1995-1996, but started to have strike zone judgment and injury problems in 1997. He rebounded with a good year in Triple-A in 1998, but after that he fell apart completely and was out of baseball by 2001.

1998:

A.J. Hinch, Grade B+: Career .219/.280/.356 hitter in 953 at-bats.

Ramon Hernandez, Grade B+: .Career .263/.326/.421 in 3975 at-bats.

Ben Petrick, Grade B+: Career .257/.336/.448 in 669 at-bats.

Cesar King, Grade B+: Never reached the majors.

COMMENT: Hinch had an outstanding year in A-ball and Triple-A in ’97 and had a good glove rep to boot. Handed Oakland’s catching job in 1998, he failed to hit and it was all downhill from there, dogged by strike zone problems and injuries. Hernandez has been a solid regular. Petrick reached the majors in 1999 and played well that year and in 2000, but he started to have health problems and his career ended early due to Parkinson’s Disease. King was a flash-in-the-pan guy who played well at a young age in 1997 but who failed to hit in Double-A, got too fat, saw his defense fall apart, and was out of baseball by 2003.

1999

Michael Barrett (3B-C), Grade A-: Career .264/.320/.422 in 3494 at-bats.

Angel Pena, Grade B+: Career .209/.256/.326 hitter in 187 at-bats.

Ramon Hernandez, Grade B+: See above.

Mitch Meluskey, Grade B+: Career .283/.386/.449 in 414 at-bats.

COMMENT: Barrett was a good player for awhile but faded very quickly once he hit age 30. Pena showed he could mash the ball in the minors, but never did the same in the majors and got too fat. Meluskey had a great year for the Astros in 2000 (.300/.401/.487) but vanished after that, ruined by back and shoulder injuries.

2000

Ben Petrick, Grade A-: See above.

Ramon Hernandez, Grade B+: See above.

Matt LeCroy, Grade B+: Career .260/.326/.440 hitter in 1388 at-bats.

COMMENT: LeCroy had success as a platoon player, catcher/1b/DH type for the Twins.

2001

J.R. House, Grade B+: Career .167/.206/.367 hitter in 60 at-bats.

COMMENT: House had injury problems and gave up baseball for football for awhile, but he still has an outside chance to do something. He is a career .310/.372/.496 hitter at the minor league level and under the right circumstances he could be a LeCroy type.

2002

Jayson Werth, Grade B+: Career .263/.355/.451 hitter in 1394 at-bats.

Joe Mauer, Grade B+: Career .317/.399/.457 hitter in 2059 at-bats.

John Buck, Grade B+; Career .234/.298/.398 hitter in 1727 at-bats.

COMMENT: Werth converted to the outfield before reaching the majors. Mauer is terrific of course. Buck has stagnated offensively and doesn’t look like he will improve at this point.

2003 (first year with Top 50 hitters)

Joe Mauer, Grade A: See above.

Victor Martinez, Grade A: Career .298/.370/.462 hitter in 2658 at-bats.

Jeff Mathis, Grade B+: Career .195/.272/.326 in 512 at-bats.

John Buck, Grade B+: See above.

Justin Huber, Grade B+: Career .220/.273/.302 in 159 at-bats.

Jeremy Brown, Grade B+: Career .300/.364/.500 in 10 at-bats.

COMMENT: Martinez was excellent until 2008. Mathis can’t hit but could hang around a long time as a reserve. His bat stopped developing in 2004. Huber moved to first base, has had some nagging injury problems, and looks like a bust right now. Brown was Mr. Moneyball and had fair success in Double-A and Triple-A, but retired after 2007. He could probably have been an OK backup if he hadn’t quit.

2004

Joe Mauer, Grade A: See above.

Jeff Mathis, Grade A-: See above.

Dioner Navarro, Grade B+: Career .263/.327/.376 in 1266 at-bats.

Guillermo Quiroz, Grade B+: Career .201/.266/.269 in 234 at-bats.

Justin Huber, Grade B+: see above.

COMMENT: Navarro looks like he will have a long career though the exact shape is still uncertain. Quiroz’s bat stagnated and he looks like a guy who will bounce around Triple-A and the majors for a long time.

2005

Daric Barton, Grade A-: Career .243/.341/.388 in 518 at-bats.

Brian McCann, Grade B+: Career .297/.358/.501 in 1635 at-bats.

COMMENT: Barton converted to first base. He struggled in 2008 and while still young, it remains to be seen if he will live up to his early potential. McCann is terrific and just getting better. Love the power/low strikeout combination.

2006
Jeff Clement, Grade A-: Career .237/.309/.393 in 219 at-bats.

Russ Martin, Grade B+: Career .285/.373/.433 in 1508 at-bats.

George Kottaras, Grade B+: Career .200/.200/.400 in five at-bats.

Neil Walker, Grade B+: Not in majors yet.

Brandon Snyder, Grade B+: Not in majors yet.

COMMENT: I think Clement just needs more time, but a change of scenery might be helpful. Martin is excellent and his superb plate discipline really helps him. His heavy workload may wear down his bat however. Kottaras has been unable to duplicate his 2005 breakout but could still have a career as a reserve. Walker and Snyder are no longer catchers.

2007

Chris Iannetta, C, Grade B+: Career .249/.368/.440 in 607 at-bats.

Miguel Montero, C, Grade B+: Career .239/.309/.411 in 414 at-bats.

Jeff Clement, Grade B: See above.

COMMENT: Iannetta had a rough debut in 2007 but was more effective in 2008, obviously it is too early to know exactly what will happen with guys at this stage. Montero is still trying to get established as well.

2008

Matt Wieters, Grade A-: Not in majors yet.

Jeff Clement, Grade B+ See above.

Taylor Teagarden, Grade B+: .319/.396/.809 in 47 at-bats.

Geovany Soto, Grade B+: .291/.365/.507 in 574 at-bats.

J.R. Towles, Grade B+: .188/.288/.323 in 186 at-bats.

Hang Conger, Grade B+: Not in majors yet.

COMMENT: Wieters looks outstanding in the minors and I have full confidence in him. Teagarden should be a solid player if injuries don’t hold him back. Soto is really good; the only question now is how much durability he will show. Towles was a big disappointment but deserves another shot. Too early to tell about Conger of course.

Let’s organize this a different way. My grading has changed over time and I’m a much tougher grader now than I used to be. But breaking this down a bit, and eliminating anyone who hasn’t played in the majors yet,

Players who were Grade As at one point:

Charles Johnson (Epstein): Successful outcome.

Javier Valentin: Bust compared to expectation. I was an easier grader then.

Joe Mauer: Excellent outcome.

Victor Martinez: Excellent outcome.

Players who were Grade A-

Raul Casanova (Epstein): Bust.

Mike Sweeney: Excellent at another position.

Jason Kendall: Excellent for awhile, successful outcome.

Michael Barrett: Solid regular.

Ben Petrick: Some success before injury bust.

Daric Barton: Too early to tell, now at another position.

Jeff Mathis: Too early to tell, don’t like current trends.

Players who were Grade B+

Todd Greene: Some success, held back by injuries, plate discipline.

Pat Cline: Injuries, stopped hitting.

A.J. Hinch: Bust due to injuries, stopped hitting.

Ramon Hernandez: Solid regular player.

Cesar King: Bust. Injuries, got fat.

Angel Pena: Bust. Got fat.

Mitch Meluskey: Good success before injury bust.

Matt Lecroy: Good platoon player.

J.R. House: Looked like an injury bust, could still contribute.

Jayson Werth: Good hitter at another position.

John Buck: Stagnated with bat but has held job.

Justin Huber: Looks like bust, injuries, position switch.

Jeremy Brown: Bust.

Dioner Navarro: Still carving out career.

Guilermo Quiroz: Looks like a backup.

Brian McCann: Excellent player.

Russ Martin: Excellent player.

George Kattaras: Could bust, still has outside chance to contribute.

Chris Iannetta: Looks good right now.

Miguel Montero: Too soon to give up on.

Geovany Soto: Looks really good right now.

Taylor Teagarden: Too early to tell, but should be good if healthy.

J.R. Towles: Blew first chance, will get more.

In Part Two, we will look at all current major league regular catchers (300 at-bats or more in 2008) and see where they came from, and how they rated as prospects. Then in Part Three we will see if we can draw some conclusions from all this data.

0 recs | Comment 34 comments

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Comments

I really admire your interest in looking at how your grades worked out in the past.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2026 12:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Seconded!

Guess it’ comes from your interest in history.

But a good analyst will review and test their work in hopes of future improvement. You are more willing than most to do so. Helps give credence to your regular cautions about the process, not focusing on the small details, etc.

So many in the baseball blogosphere nitpick over the relative positions of players, orgs, etc to the minutest detail as if these are sharp drawn lines. Consider them informed opinions. Unfortunately in our current culture, too often opinion and fact are joined in the mind of the opiner. We all could due with a healthy dose of humility and recognition of ours and others fallability.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 23, 2026 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 29, 2026 2:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Catchers

With the attrition rates that occur with players that are drafted as catcher, make it a ba idea to draft catchers that high to begin with? Yadier Molina never made one of these lists and he is the best defensive catcher in the major leagues and is improving as a hitter every year. Russel Martin was drafted as a SS, and was switched to catcher. The Mauers of the world seem to be the utmost exception to the overall rule, that drafting catchers with high picks, almost never works out.

by CoolCat23 on Jan 23, 2026 12:27 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

I wonder

if times are changing. It seems possible we could be seeing a number of very good catchers in the near future as the position seems to be becoming more popular for elite athletes.

Time will tell on that of course.

by carverslacker on Jan 23, 2026 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

Like with goalies in hockey, as more elite athletes gravitate to the catcher position it would be reasonable to expect the developmental results to be less volatile.

by Ophidian on Jan 23, 2026 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or could it be

with the rapid expansion of salaries in the sport, most athletes are taking their conditioning approaches more seriously, and all are becoming somewhat more athletic?

The recent history detailed above cautions us against making broad statements about the future, but I’d suggest the biggest variable in the prediction game is the improved access to info for the predictors. Kind of like the advent of the satellite for meteorologists, the web and computer technology dramatically expands the available info and the ability to analyze it. I’d love to hear John comment on how the process has evolved since even 1995.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 23, 2026 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way, sorry for waxing philosophically

must be the coffee.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 23, 2026 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Word has it

Yadi has lost even more weight than last year. He may soon be the best overall catcher in the game, at least until Wieters overruns him. Surprising he never made the list.

by RayMonD! on Jan 23, 2026 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"best overall catcher in the game?"

No way.

That title probably belongs to one of the many catchers who can slug higher than .400. Molina hits for an empty average. He’s very good, and from what I understand top notch defensively… but he doesnt walk all that much and he doesnt get many XBHs. A large proportion of his offensive value comes from his AVG - and I dont see a whole lot of reason to think that this season’s .304 is the rule, rather than the exception. Every major projection system sees him regressing a good bit in 09 (.273, .272, .274).

He’s good, but he’s a lot closer ot middle of the pack than he is “best in the game.”

by alskor on Jan 23, 2026 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Molina better than Joe Mauer?

That’s a bold prediction indeed.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2026 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best defensive cathcer, probably

best overall no way. Has to be Mauer. He is the defensively and offensively in the AL. Yadi is probably no. 3 in the NL behind Martin and McCann. You can make a case that Soto is better as well

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Jan 23, 2026 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can make a case that Soto is better as well

That’s a no brainer. If Molina was the best defensive catcher EVER he wouldnt be able to make up the difference in offense.

by alskor on Jan 23, 2026 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Mauer would have something to say about that

Ditto two guys named McCann and Martin.

by Brendan Scolari on Jan 29, 2026 2:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the fact

that Melusky was regarded by everyone to be a total jerk needs to be mentioned up there. Makeup can ruin a player, especially one trying to deal with injuries

by nms on Jan 23, 2026 12:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Awesome JS

Truly appreciated. I have heard many times the easiest way to a major league SPORT is to dawn the catchers equipment. It may have some merit but having played there at a relatively high level I have always been most interested in catching prospects… keep up the great work and I can’t wait for part duex…

by kennythered on Jan 23, 2026 1:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

One of my impressions

is that catchers tend to develop later. I would be interested to see the average rookie age by position.

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jan 23, 2026 1:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just later in life

My impression was that once they hit the majors, their bats can take a while (longer than a lot of other position players) to fully develop. It seems that a lot of catchers see a performance spike in the age 28-30 range (as opposed to the 26-29 range for most position players) but then fall off rather quickly in their early 30’s. So they end up with an abbreviated peak.

by Ophidian on Jan 23, 2026 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ben Davis?

I thought I’d see Ben Davis in here. He was considered a big time prospect. Too big for me, as I drafted him pretty high in one of my Diamond Mind leagues. What a waste of a pick.

by billybgame on Jan 23, 2026 7:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Phelps

He was a catcher in the minors and even though he was a long shot to stay there, he was as likely to stick at the position as someone like Barton I think.

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 23, 2026 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Soo

what your saying is, catching prospects are less likely to pan out then pitching prospects….hehe

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Jan 23, 2026 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Braves

The Braves have had quite a recent track record with catching prospects: Max Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Tyler Flowers, and of course Brian McCann, who’s the second-best catcher in baseball. Do they know something we don’t?

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jan 23, 2026 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Off-topic, but

Why is everyone so sure that Mauer is better than McCann?

by mraver on Jan 23, 2026 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

Virtually identical numbers to Mauer, but less dependent on BA.

Also, McCann is a year younger and does not have the benefit of the DH.

by parish on Jan 23, 2026 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because of OBP, I assume.

Mauer has 40 points of OBP over McCann in his career. While their OPS numbers are similar, that more than makes up for McCann’s power advantage, right?

by vandystu on Jan 23, 2026 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Only one of those guys has made it past the “will he be a bust stage” and there is a fair chance that the other three won’t even end up as catchers.

by aCone419 on Jan 23, 2026 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If the Braves know something about catchers that no one else does...

what does it say about Ramirez, Salty, and Flowers that the Braves were willing to trade them away?

by Domenik_Hixon on Jan 23, 2026 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm wondering if body type has something to do with it

A lot of guys who are squat and pudgy automatically get stuck at catcher early in their baseball careers, simply because it’s the position where they would have the most defensive value. From eyeballing it, it looks like those with builds more like other position players have done a better job of staying successful. Maybe guys with that build are more prone to knee injuries or something.

Breaking it down by build:

Lanky:
Joe Mauer (Success)
Jayson Werth (Success)
Jason Kendall (Success)
Brian McCann (Success, though he’s filled out and I guess he could go into the linebacker category instead, but he was skinny in the minors)

Linebacker:
Mike Sweeney (Success)
Geovany Soto (Success)
John Buck (Average)
Daric Barton (Bust so far, but too early to tell)
Pat Cline (Bust)
Justin Huber (Bust)

Average:
Victor Martinez (Success)
Charles Johnson (Success)
Chris Iannetta (Likely success)
Michael Barrett (Average)
Miguel Montero (Below average, but good trend)
George Kottaras (Likely Bust)
AJ Hinch (Bust)
Ben Petrick (Bust)
Jeff Mathis (Bust)
Mitch Meluskey (Bust)

Squat:
Russell Martin (Success)
Ramon Hernandez (Success)
Dioner Navarro (Average, may be a success)
Todd Greene (A bit below average)
Matt Lecroy (Below average; not sure squat is the right word because he was tall, but also fat)
Raul Casanova (Bust)
Javier Valentin (Bust)
Angel Pena (Bust)
Cesar King (Bust)
JR House (Bust)
Jeremy Brown (Bust)
Guillermo Quiroz (Bust)

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 23, 2026 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs