Colorado Rockies Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2026 1:36 PM EST in News Comment 39 comments

A Focused Jeff Francis

Ian Stewart, 3B, A
Jeff Francis, LHP, A
Chris Nelson, SS, A-
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, B
Jeff Baker, 3B, B
Ryan Shealy, 1B, B
Seth Smith, OF, B
Chris Narveson, LHP, B-
Clint Barmes, SS, B-
J.D. Closser, C, B- (should be in the book)
Marcos Carvajal, RHP, B-
Sam Deduno, RHP, B-
Ryan Speier, RHP, B-
Chris Iannetta, C, B-
Juan Morillo, RHP, C+
Brad Hawpe, OF, C+
Garrett Atkins, 3B, C+ (grade change)
Steven Register, RHP, C+
Matt Merricks, LHP, C+
Jim Miller, RHP, C+

This is an underrated farm system that deserves more attention. Stewart and Francis are among the very top prospects in the game, and 2004 first-round pick Chris Nelson is not far behind.

I see no weaknesses in Stewart. His defense proved better than advertised, and his bat was everything expected. Francis will be a leading ROY candidate, although the thin air is a handicap. Injury concerns keep Ubaldo Jimenez and Jeff Baker at Grade B rather than B+; both could be excellent if they can stay off the disabled list. Both from his numbers and watching him play, I'm convinced that Ryan Shealy can hit. But he doesn't run well enough to play any position except first base, and he's blocked there.

Then you have a large mass of Grade B-/C+ type prospects. The exact position on the list depends on what you want to emphasize, and really isn't particularly that important. The pitcher with the highest ceiling is Juan Morillo, owner of a 96-100 MPH fastball, but dogged by control problems. Sidearming closer Ryan Speier has better stuff than most guys with his style of delivery, and at the least he should be an effective set-up man.

For some strange reason, I didn't put catching prospect J.D. Closser in the book this year. He is another B- type guy, projecting as a useful contributing player but (probably) not a huge impact star-type. I will be sending out full reports on Closser and some other guys who should have made the book to my newsletter subscribers this week.

Garrett Atkins I rated as a Grade C in the book, but that was too low and he should be a C+ or B-. His bat is very impressive, and the thin air will help him. But his defense at third base has not improved; indeed, it has deteriorated to some extent, and I think he would be better off at first. But again, he is blocked there.

Interesting Grade C guys who could move up include lefties Aaron Marsden and Justin Hampson, third baseman Matt Macri, second baseman Jayson Nix, and outfielder Jeff Salazar.

So, what we have here is a farm system with three potential stars at the top, and a lot of depth in players who, at the least, should be useful.

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Ryan Shealy

he could hit a fastball out of yosemite with a chopstick. he has unbelievable power.

he put up great numbers in a pitchers league at visalia, and then did it again in a pitcher's park at tulsa.

it of course bears mentioning that he was a 25 year old in AA ball, but even accounting for this not-so-trivial fact, I still think he'll enjoy a Matt Stairs (96-99) time period, where his peak comes late, and doesn't last long, but in between, he hits the holy heck out of everything.

With Todd Helton firmly entrenched at first, and absolutely no way shealy can cover the outfield in Coors, he'll either be a career minor leaguer, or some wise GM without DH will trade for him, and enjoy good production for pennies on the dollar.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 6, 2026 2:07 PM EST reply actions

whoops

at visalia, he was playing in a neutral park, but a hitters league.

and at tulsa, he was in a pitcher's park in a fairly neutral league.

it doesn't change my analysis of him one bit, but for the sake of posterity, I thought I'd throw this out there.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 6, 2026 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

Shealy

I like Shealy a lot as well. I think the Jack Cust comp scares a lot of people off, but he's better all the way around than Cust was. If Helton goes down with an injury, he'll put up some good numbers, but he really could be a premier DH for a few years in the AL...

by Brickhaus on Mar 6, 2026 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Matt Macri

Waiting for full season ball to rate him?

by irwin on Mar 6, 2026 2:26 PM EST reply actions

Jimenez and Morillo

John, could you tell me a little more about Ubaldo Jimenez and Juan Morillo? I know both have a lot of potential, but I'm not really familiar with them, especially Morillo. Thanks.

by BigBell on Mar 6, 2026 2:26 PM EST reply actions

stuff

Yeah, I want to see Macri against better pitching. Promising but we don't have enough data yet.

Jimenez is a fastball/curveball/changeup guy. All of his pitches are above average and he has decent command. He was limited to just 9 starts last year by a fractured shoulder blade, but in those 9 starts he posted a 61/12 K/BB in 44 innings, california league.

Morillo fanned 73 in 66 innings in the Northwest League, but also walked 41. he's been known to touch 100 MPH, but needs better command.

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2026 2:32 PM EST reply actions

rookies

the Rockies are throwing away their season this year. They will be starting 4 rookies (Garrett Atkins, J.D. Closser, Brad Hawpe, Clint Barmes), as well as their #3 starter (Jeff Frances). At least one of these rookies will be a star, but the chance they all turn out to be starters is very small. I just don't see how a team can depend so greatly on their minor league system on an opening day with only a quality plan B at catcher (Charles Johnson).
forgot to mention, 2 second year players (Aaron Miles and Matt Holiday) as well as an inexperienced closer (Tsao) will be important to Rockies success.

by mrmetaa on Mar 6, 2026 2:35 PM EST reply actions

Gotta love it

I'm hearing that Macri might be moved around the diamond a little bit, possibly to second base, to avoid that hot corner log jam the Rox currently have.

I think Miller will be a part of the pen to start the 2006 season. He was dominant at Tri-City last year. Deduno is also pretty promising.

It seems like the Rox have enough pitching prospects that it's reasonable to count on at least 2 or 3 of them being solid big leaguers.

The Future Is Now - Jeff Francis, #26, Colorado Rockies

by Franchise26 on Mar 6, 2026 2:35 PM EST reply actions

Weighted GPA

Rox have a 3.07 weighted system GPA.

by dnramo on Mar 6, 2026 3:49 PM EST reply actions

OK

John, I think you hugely underrate Francis, which is saying something because you consider him the #2 prospect.

In 114 IP in AA, the guy K'd 147 guys and walked 22, not even 2 per 9.

Then he goes into Colorado Springs, the Coors field of the minor leagues, and gives up only 3 HRs in 41 IP, while K'ing 49 and walking only 7.

He's shown the ability to keep the ball in the park, strike out batters, and not walk anyone.

I don't see how anyone but Felix can be seen as a better pitching prospect.

I like Stewart, but I think Francis' ability to help the Rockies now, along with his dominance, should make him the #1 guy.

After all that, I also agree they have an underrated system. I think Chris Nelson will be a stud, and expect a big year from him this year. I will say by the end of this season, Nelson will be one of top 10 prospects in the game. Him and Stewart are absolute studs, should be a great future right side of the infield for the Rockies.

by SenorGato88 on Mar 6, 2026 4:04 PM EST reply actions

well, he got an A

and A grades aren't just thrown out willy-nilly by John.

rather than looking at it as a negative on Francis, I think it shows just how highly rated Ian Stewart is.

You can flip-flop them if it makes you feel better. they're both legitimate future All-Star/MVP type prospects.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 6, 2026 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Francis' grade

john only gave out 6 "A" grades. Francis got his due. Rockies fans should be estatic they recieved two of the "A" grades.

free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 on Mar 6, 2026 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Who Are the 6 "A" Grades?

Off the top of my head, I can think of the 2 rockies, Marte and Felix Hernandez? Who else? Mauer? And ....

by Piston Honda on Mar 6, 2026 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

The 6 "A" Grades

Stewart, Francis, Marte, Felix Hernandez, Adam Miller, Joel Guzman.

by Russ Oates on Mar 6, 2026 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Francis' Stuff?

I'm wondering what kind of stuff Jeff Francis throws. I have this theory, obviously not accepted by the Rockies over the years, that any pitcher who has any reliance on a breaking ball will fail miserably there. The problems for pitchers at Coors are not limited to the carry on the ball and the size of the field. The thin air provides less resistance against pitched balls and thus greatly attenuates the break on the ball.

If I were the Rockies, I would spend all my time and money acquiring big fastball pitchers, tell them to forget the breaking ball, and work on location, changing speeds with the fastball, and developing a changeup.

by DrBGiantsfan on Mar 6, 2026 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

True enough. They really could be flipped.

I think I'm more mad at BA's thing, he wasn't even in the top 10 prospects in the game, and he was 3rd behind Stewart and Nelson, who was only drafted this year and hasn't even played Low A ball.

He really got disrespected by BA IMO.

by SenorGato88 on Mar 6, 2026 4:21 PM EST reply actions

well

BA is stupid, in case you didn't know. Outside of Jim Callis, I take very little stock in what they have to say.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 6, 2026 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

i respectfully disagree...

with calling BA "stupid", I think that they just have their own way of evaluating prospects. Regardless, it seems that everyone is very high on Stewart, Francis, Nelson. Rockies fans should be grinning from ear to ear. (I know I'm jealous)

by erudite on Mar 6, 2026 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

BA is stupid?

Hate to disagree but BA is the leader in minor league coverage and the most respected group of analysts in the game. MLB general managers refer to BA's rankings and reports. BA does prefer traditional "raw skills" as opposed to moneyball types like John - but to call them stupid is ...well stupid :) I think John would back me up on this.

by tupelodylan on Mar 6, 2026 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

BA

Francis was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year last year, so I am not sure that his 3rd ranking is a testament him getting no respect, but rather two guys with extremely high ceilings in front of him...

by rhodehead on Mar 7, 2026 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

BA

Yeah, BA is not stupid. They do really good work.
And note that I say this even though BA hooking up with ESPN is what cost me my job.

I have nothing but respect for BA, even when I disagree with their rankings.

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2026 5:25 PM EST reply actions

Yea

They may be very bad with their rankings IMO, but their scouting reports and draft work is very, very, very, very good.

by SenorGato88 on Mar 6, 2026 5:27 PM EST reply actions

ba

Their draft work is absolutely first class, and they have unparralleled contacts in the industry.

Their rankings are erratic, possibly because they are a committee approach.

But none of us are perfect. I certainly make my share of mistakes.

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2026 5:32 PM EST reply actions

Marcos Carvajal

Why do you have him so high? When he was with the Dodgers, he was never considered that great of a prospect, certainly not as good as some of the guys on your Dodgers list that are B- (Aybar, LaRoche). Personally, I'm hoping both Carvajal, and to a lesser degree, Merricks both flounder during spring and are returned to the Dodgers

by kingofthehobos on Mar 6, 2026 5:36 PM EST reply actions

carvajal

Strong K/IP and H/IP to go with plus velocity.

I think the main problem is having ranked Aybar and LaRoche possibly too low than Carvajal too high. I must have been in a bad mood the day I did the Dodgers.

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2026 5:38 PM EST reply actions

Francis's Stuff

For the person above who asked about what Francis throws...

His best pitch is his fastball, and he throws it about 80-85% of the time. It clocks in about 88-92 mph, but he's got a deceptive delivery that makes it appear faster. In addition, he's got a very good changeup that he'll throw in any count, and a curveball that has gotten better since his debut last year.

He's certainly not over-reliant on the breaking ball by any means. Deception is what makes him so good. He's 6-5, and he's releasing pretty much directly from 12 o'clock, which makes everything look faster.

The Future Is Now - Jeff Francis, #26, Colorado Rockies

by Franchise26 on Mar 6, 2026 6:21 PM EST reply actions

Helton

On a different track, how much will the Rockies be regretting that long-term big money deal they handed out to Helton a year from now? Yes, he's great, but they are loaded with young, cheap talent that now have no place to play. They won't all pan out, but I doubt they'll all fizzle either. You have to think they're praying for Giambi to stink up the joint in NY... that way they may be able to dump Helton on the Yankees at the deadline, move Atkins over to 1B (if he's playing well, or one of the other options if he's not), and thus open up a spot for Stewart. Then, take those millions and invest it wisely in a great bullpen (which already has some help on the way in Speier and possibly Ubaldo if a switch comes) and a good starter (if they can bring one in) and they're off to the races.

That, and a little luck, and they may be able to compete with the Dodgers one of these years...

by okbluejays on Mar 6, 2026 6:25 PM EST reply actions

Mike Esposito

I was wondering what other people think of him, as I am beginning to feel that I am the only one impressed by what he's done. Last year he was absolutely dominant in the second half at AA and he's improved his control dramatically as he's climbed, dropping to only 2.2 BB/9 IP last year and like I said he was better then that after July. He's only 24 and going to AAA, am I the only one who thinks he's better than Narveson and Register for two?

by Rox Girl on Mar 6, 2026 6:36 PM EST reply actions

Re: Mike Esposito

I live in Tulsa and went to a bunch of Drillers games last year. While Francis was obviously the most impressive, Esposito and Hampson were two other pitchers who made quite an impression on me. Esposito doesn't have the most impressive stuff but he gets the job done. He'll probably be excellent in AAA and if given at a chance will be a decent 4th or 5th starter. More likely though, he'll probably have to settle for spot starts and middle relief.

by mrmaguda on Mar 7, 2026 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

No Dexter Fowler?

Does anyone have any thoughts on Fowler?

by ultxmxpx on Mar 6, 2026 7:05 PM EST reply actions

Fowler

Appears that he'll need to work on his swing in extended Spring Training and then onto either Casper or Tri-City for this season.

I hope its Casper since they have much better internet audio.

by Russ Oates on Mar 6, 2026 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

Macri and Iannetta

I was pleasantly surpised to see the high praise for Iannetta (B-), given his lack of pre-draft hype. I saw him a number of times as a collegian and am convinced that he'll have a big league career. Calling Girardi with a better bat is justified...

As for Macri, I'm quite bullish - he has the defensive tools for second and his bat should play there. I expect he'll crack the top 20 on this list next year.

by Der Komminsksar on Mar 6, 2026 9:22 PM EST reply actions

Francis

I think John's grade for him is very fair. I also think that many other places have sorely underrated Francis. Obviously Coors has an effect on pitchers, but how many good pitchers have the Rockies ever had? Mike Hampton? Isn't he a flyball pitcher -- and a #2 pitcher at best?

Like one of the above comments stated, Francis's #s were still filthy at Colorado Springs. This guy will succeed at the ML level, and prove that there are pitchers who can succeed -- even in Colorado. His #s at Coors weren't even that bad last year. It was his first couple road outings that he got lit up in.

by AaronMullen on Mar 7, 2026 10:08 AM EST reply actions

Tsao

Hi, John.

Tsao is no more a prospect?!

by Fricsay on Mar 7, 2026 12:23 PM EST reply actions

can we talk about 3B?

What do you all think about the Rockies' 3B situation this year and next? Any chance Baker unseats Atkins this spring? Does Atkins field poorly enough to lose the job on that basis? Do any of these guys have skills that could move them to other positions? Likely arrival date for Stewart to take over at 3B? Etc.

by reviser273 on Mar 7, 2026 12:24 PM EST reply actions

atkins

It sounds like Atkins has the job for now. Baker needs to be healthy. He has a better glove than Atkins and is just as good a hitter, so if Baker is healthy and ATkins plays poorly early, Baker has an outside chance for some playing time in the second half or in 06. I wouldn't expect Stewart until 2007.

by John Sickels on Mar 7, 2026 12:30 PM EST reply actions

Atkins...

...I'm a little surprised that the experts don't have a higher opinion of Atkins. Obviously park effects play a role at Colorado Springs but I look for him to hit.

Is it mainly because of his defense or you just don't think he can hit big league pitching?

by alstl04 on Mar 7, 2026 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Atkins ZIPs

Atkin's ZIPS projection is quite good - .322/.385/.472 with 92 runs created. Does this sound reasonable?

by phatcat43 on Mar 8, 2026 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Chris Nelson

John:

A scout for the Rockies said in a private conversation the other day that Chris Nelson right now has a major league caliber bat. That he could play right now if need be. That said, and taking in to consideration the confidence that needs to be instilled in young players before rushing them to the show, when would you expect to see Nelson arrive at Coor's. Both your earliest and expected arrival.

Thanks.

by stello12 on Mar 15, 2026 6:12 PM EST reply actions