My top 20 Pirates Prospects
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 12:42 PM EST
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PrintMy Top 20 List for the Pittsburgh Pirates is complete! It's been a long journey (okay, it's been three months, I'm making it sound way worse than it is) and I'm probably really wrong (this statement is much more accurate) on my assessments, but it's finished! My top 20 list is as follows... (Clicking on each player links to a player profile with a scouting report, player history, and placement explanation)
01 - Jameson Taillon
02 - Gerrit Cole
03 - Starling Marte
04 - Luis Heredia
05 - Josh Bell
06 - Robbie Grossman
07 - Tony Sanchez
08 - Jarek Cunningham
09 - Jeff Locke
10 - Nick Kingham
11 - Kyle McPherson
12 - Stetson Allie
13 - Alex Dickerson
14 - Colton Cain
15 - Matt Curry
16 - Zack Dodson
17 - Gorkys Hernandez
18 - Rudy Owens
19 - Zack Von Rosenberg
20 - Clay Holmes
Like (this is facebook right?), comment, or even flame me. It's your choice. All three are appreciated!
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That seems to be the consensus
but I don’t mind bucking the trend. While Cole obviously is older, Taillon at least has some type of pro track record it looks like both will start at A+ Bradenton. Furthermore, fastballs aside - where Cole has a notable, but still somewhat small advantage - I like Taillon’s curveball way more than any Cole’s slider or changeup, especially considering the uncertainty that surrounds the change.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Mid year
that was what Keith Law reported. Several other reports since don’t match up with that including (I believe) some of Law’s. It’s a big unknown as far as I can tell.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
cole does have
A bigger fb advantage than you are realizing, it is simply one of the best pitches for any prospect. The slider is also incredible and while the change is often disputed depending on whom you listen to, it flashes plus-plus and will only get better with further refining…I love the tumbling away action from lefties when he has it going. The sky is absolutely the limit with Cole, imo.
by St.Steve on Mar 8, 2026 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we can disagree on the fastballs
Taillon was sitting just as pretty as Cole was at similar stages in their careers. No reason Taillon can’t gain a bit of velo and sustain it more as he gets older. His fastball can be plenty good sitting 95-96 in the future for example.
I obviously want the changeup to be plus-plus and as I point out (not to be rude, but it’s in the article) if Cole proves himself and the changeup is there he could be the #1 overall prospect as soon as graduations go up, which would make me look foolish. We’ll see. I’m glad we have both.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take Cole too
My favorite part of his fastball is that while at UCLA, he was still in the upper 90’s late into games. That’s not to say that Taillon won’t be able to do that too once his pitch count is stretched out but I love seeing guys be able to sustain velo deep into games. Cole also has the more developed 3rd pitch at this point and (when it’s on) that change was really really good.
Having said that, I think it’s closer than most people think becasue of Taillon’s curve. It’s the best pitch that either player throws. It’s not totally out of the question to think that he could spend a large portion of his career throwing the best curveball in all of baseball. That’s one hell of a weapon for a guy who can throw in the mid to upper 90’s. He’s also younger than Cole (although it’s only by about 14 months as opposed to the 2 years their draft classes would indicate).
by KentuckyPirate on Mar 8, 2026 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
good job
I like Bell better than Heredia personally
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Mar 8, 2026 5:47 PM EST reply actions
Agreed with this.
But I certainly am not going to say MCTT is wrong.
by mr. maniac on Mar 8, 2026 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
Haha
you are welcome to if you’d like.. really.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
I like Bell an awful lot
but he’s yet to really play professionally and was pretty old for his High School (19 IIRC). We need to get some data on him before we consider him anything other than “pure potential”. However, I would put Heredia above Marte. Ditto with Bell. But that’s just me.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Mar 9, 2026 7:35 AM EST up reply actions
Bell's would have been one of the older
kids in his class as he was 18 for his entire senior year while some students don’t turn 18 until some point during the year. He’s not unusually old for his class, though. This year (his first in pro ball) will be his age-19 season.
by KentuckyPirate on Mar 9, 2026 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Alex Dickerson could be higher
I’d expect he has a better chance of sticking in the show than Cunningham. But that’s just me and my opinion.
s.zielinski
by steve_z on Mar 8, 2026 10:32 PM EST reply actions
Naw man
Cunningham is the guy where I’m a lot different than most. I’m really, really high on him so I understand. Cunningham will probably bust, but he could be Dan Uggla-ish
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 8, 2026 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Btw
I said “naw man” cause your opinion is definitely a good one. I’m the crazy and odd one by putting Cunningham ahead of Dickerson.
Didn’t want that misconstrued.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 9, 2026 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
Does that Sanchez rating mean you think he's still going to be a major league starting catcher?
It’s definitely not looking as promising as it was two years ago.
by PissedMick on Mar 9, 2026 1:46 AM EST reply actions
And I should have noticed there's a link to a writeup I can follow.
Time for bed.
by PissedMick on Mar 9, 2026 1:51 AM EST up reply actions
Personally
I’m still pretty confident in Sanchez. He played all of last season about 15 pounds underweight because of his broken jaw. His biggest problem last year was an inability to hit the ball with authority. The weight loss could account for this. His K:BB numbers were still fine indicating that he was not overmatched. His defense was actually pretty solid all year. His pop times were good and he was excellent at blocking pitches. I’m not convinced Sanchez will be a star but I feel good that he’ll be a good starting catcher in the bigs.
by KentuckyPirate on Mar 9, 2026 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty much
my exact thoughts. Emphasis on how much I love the BB:K rate. That’s not really a skill that’s a fluke or that disappears.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 9, 2026 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
It is an insult...
…that Osuna isn’t even on this list and should be over someone like Alex Dickerson, who has a bat but is a marginal player at his position at best. And based on what we are seeing now, Starling Marte is the #1 Pirates prospect, not Cole (who was sent down to the minors) and Jameson Tallion, who is fine at the #2 position.
by rblythepittsteel on Mar 10, 2026 10:04 AM EST reply actions
None?
This always seems like a pretty lame excuse when a guy has a .870 OPS out of center field with an excellent arm, excellent speed, and excellent defense, while also improving on strikeouts and power production.
by Woo! on Mar 10, 2026 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Your point is ridiculous.
I have as hard a time as anyone liking players who don’t walk, but Marte plays excellent CF defense, has power, makes solid contact, runs very well, and basically does everything but walk. If his approach was better he might be another Andrew McCutchen. The fact that it isn’t means he’s only a very good prospect rather than a top 5 guy.
by PissedMick on Mar 10, 2026 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I tend to think that Marte is being unnecessarily nitpicked by the segment of the baseball prospecting sphere who have been conditioned by sabermetric wisdom to believe that a hitter can’t be successful in MLB without walking. He’s got everything tools-wise that you could reasonably ever expect one position player to possess save for the walking aversion and plus-plus HR power potential, though he still conceivably convert some of his gap power to plus HR power. The few guys around like Marte are about as close as we’ll ever see to a complete player in our lifetimes. Hence, he should be viewed more favorably than he currently is, especially given that he’s got the stats that reflect that he knows how to put his skills to use on the diamond. And this isn’t coming from a Pirates’ fan either.
by reillocity on Mar 10, 2026 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Yep
I think the plate discipline is a slight issue, hence I can’t put him higher than #3, but I think he’s definitely a top 50 prospect overall (and maybe even closer to 25). I hope my Homerism isn’t showing.
He is a little “older” as well (He’s not really old, he just doesn’t have that elite ARL that most top prospects have. To add to that, I’m not saying that that is wrong earlier. ARL is important, and that’s why guys like Machado, Harper, and Trout are all top 10 guys, even if it’s not the be-all end-all.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 10, 2026 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
i don't know i see him semi similar to Austin Jackson, a good everyday player but not a game changer
I’d rank him in the top 5 or 6 in Pitts. system but 3 may be a bit high.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 10, 2026 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
No, it's not ridiculous.
Every regression I’ve done shows that walking is the most important thing a prospect can have. This is because you do not lose your eye when you get to the majors. You can lose your power, or contact ability because the pitchers get better, but you cannot lose your eye. And people say that pitchers won’t throw you balls, so your walks will drastically lower, but this never happens. Is someone like Nick Punto a good hitter? No, but he still walks a lot.
by Bososx13 on Mar 10, 2026 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Look at the series of posts here
http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_06.html
This seems to be a pretty comprehensive study, and this line stood out to me:
“No single prospect with a low Advanced-A walk rate turned into a productive MLB hitter. Nearly three quarters of them were busts. Players with high walk rates had a bust percentage of only 48%.”
It’d be nitpicking if I didn’t note that, for AA prospects:
“Only eight of 66 prospects (12%) with low or very low walk rates turned into productive MLB hitters (Corey Hart, Raul Mondesi, Chipper Jones, Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Jose Reyes, Richard Hidalgo, Javy Lopez). 21 of the 62 prospects with high or very high walk rates (34%) became productive. Only two prospects with very high walk rates were busts (Joe Lawrence, Kerwin Moore).”
Not the end of the world, but it’s definitely a legitimate concern
by TheBigOne on Mar 11, 2026 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
I have a question for you
12% of those AA prospects became close to HOF players. Doesn’t that seem incredibly high? I really can’t see that as a negative.
21 of 62 (which is around 1/3) of them became productive. Doesn’t that seem incredibly high? I mean 1/3 of AA hitters becoming productive is very good.
by pedrophile on Mar 11, 2026 3:45 AM EST up reply actions
i'm confused by your post
the 34% deals high/very high walk rates category….if we all agree it’s a relatively high probability of success, then why can’t we agree that walks are a very good thing?
as for the 12% of guys who succeed with low walk rates…..that seems really low to me. we have to remember he’s only looking at Top 100 prospects. maybe the payoffs for those 12% of low walk prospects is significantly better than the payoffs for the 34% prospects with high or very high walk rates (don’t know who the 21 prospects they are looking at is) but i doubt it.
even if the payoff is significantly better, i’m not sure the Pirates can afford to be risk neutral. they are probably (rightfully so) a risk averse team based on their market.
by blue bulldog on Mar 11, 2026 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Being sent to minor league camp
was simply the result of a lack of available innings in the major league games. It really shouldn’t reflect negatively on him at all. As great as Marte has looked this spring, it’s a little premature to think that those 13 plate appearances should cause him to leapfrog two elite pitchers. It’s also worth pointing out that Marte (who is an excellent defender) has not looked great with the glove.
As far as Osuna is concerned, I don’t think it’s an insult to not include a defensively limited 1B who has yet to play above the GCL. Osuna was really good last year, but so was Dickerson and He is likely to start the season 2 or 3 levels higher up the organizational ladder.
by KentuckyPirate on Mar 10, 2026 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Just adding
Apparently the Nationals inquired on Starling Marte. Not sure what they were offering, but the Pirates rebuffed them.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 11, 2026 6:00 AM EST reply actions
After reading your report on Marte, who looks like a great prospect btw, I think the Giants have a version of him in Francisco Peguero. They are almost the same age, have similar toolsets and the BB/OBP issue. Frankie Pegs has been injured (got his knee scoped yet again to clean up but should be starting spring training soon), so his stats in the eastern weren’t up to Marte’s level.
Now that you guys have McCutch locked, you get those pitchers going and some luck with Marte/Bell, the Bucs might just breakout in a couple. Good stuff.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
Demondre The Giant Has A Posse
by shankbone on Mar 11, 2026 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
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