I’m not sure I understand the question…you mean guys who everyone thinks is a sleeper but really isn’t? I can’t think of anyone like that off the top of my head. …if a guy is a “consensus sleeper” then he really isn’t a sleeper.

I thought he was an overdraft, but he played very well indeed in the Appalachian League. You have a point about the 51-game sample size, but the scouting reports are all very positive. I gave both Lee and Mier a Grade B in the book, so I think they are very close indeed. I wouldn’t set aside your skepticism entirely, but I don’t think I would have the same skepticism I would have if Mier had just come out of nowhere.

well I am playing Fantasy Baseball this year (more on that tomorrow), but I’m not sure what this question means. Do you mean sleeper prospect picks, or sleeper fantasy picks? I wrote a big piece about sleepers a few weeks ago and I’d refer you back to that if you mean prospects.

Upside: 30-35 homers. More probable that he settles in as a 25 homer guy in my view, albeit with high OBP and good batting average. Better than Overbay. Not as good as Teixera.

I love his speed, athleticism, and defense. I am not sold on the power yet, and I doubt he’ll end up hitting as many homers as Sizemore has. I think Stubbs is more of a 15 homer type.

that’s two questions.

Answering the first one, my policy is to NOT use a fancy new metric until it has been out for at least a couple of years and the bugs have been worked out. Compared to ten years ago, I now look a lot more at ground ball/fly ball data (which wasn’t even available when I started doing this). I’ve been using BABIP more in the last couple of seasons, and this year I started looking at the various permutations of FIP more often, although looking at the “components” compared to a pitcher’s raw ERA is something I have always done..

He threw 178.2 innings last year. I’d hold him to about the same this year, maybe a little more if his command is better and the pitch counts come out the same…the point is I would keep his overall workload the same however you want to measure it. Next year I’d add a little more. I wouldn’t expect 200 innings out of him until he’s 25.

Hmm….good question. They have tended to go with some older prospects in the draft and with their trade acquisitions, so perhaps it is just a function of preferring older and more predictable prospects. I don’t think it is an arbitration/finance strategy as much as a player development philosophy.

Who thinks he can’t be an ace? I can see him as a young Barry Zito or Andy Pettitte, and those guys were aces in their prime seasons when young. I don’t see why Matusz can’t follow in their footsteps.

I’d never say never when a player’s psyche is concerned. Without knowing more about WHY he left baseball, I would say the chance is likely remote, but not zero.

.270/.335/.435, 19 steals

Freddie Freeman with 20

I like both of them actually. Brothers got more hype pre-draft because he’s a lefty and pitched better in college than Richards did, but both of them have terrific arms. we need to see both at higher levels, blah blah, but I think they both have a decent chance to live up to their potential.

Not in this quantum reality.

Well, EY is athletic and fast, but Gordon is MORE athletic and even faster. That’s the main reason. Gordon also has better infield actions and better hands, while EY has been considered marginal with the glove (although I don’t think his 2B defense is as bad as his reputation).

i assume you mean when I see a pitcher in person.

Lack of a breaking ball….well it depends on how old the guy is. If he’s in college or the Midwest League and doesn’t have a breaking ball, that can be fixable. If he’s in Triple-A and can’t throw a breaking ball, that’s a big problem.

Bad mechanics is usually more of a red flag for me, although how to define “bad” is hard to say. If you poke around the internet you can find a lot of discussion over what mechanics are good and what mechanics are bad. I am not a technical expert in the subject….I’m not a pitching coach…but I’ve been watching pitchers for 30 years and USUALLY have a good feel for whether a guy’s mechanics are stressful or not, even if I can’t explain it too well in technical terms.

Yeah, Rizzo is moving ahead of Lars although I’d like to see another season of data from both of them…can Rizzo boost his power further, and can Lars recover at all? Rizzo could be an Overbay type…solid but not outstanding. Lars could be a total washout. We’ll know a lot more about both players by July.

I’d like to see Taylor get another 70 games at Triple-A (which would give him 100 total) but we’ll have to see if Oakland needs him sooner. I think it’s just a matter of consolidating the gains he’s already made…just seeing as many TripleA breaking balls and changeups as possible.

I haven’t studied this topic enough to give you a valid answer on short notice.

I can see him having a power spike at age 27/28, which would be more in 2011-2012 than 2010. I think this year he’ll hit about 20. He might have a 30 homer season in him but probably not this year.

No, I still like both of these guys. Both of them still have loads of potential and both still could develop into number two starters. Both were pushed too fast, especially Holland. Their potential is about even…but since Holland is a lefty he would probably rate slightly ahead.

I remain convinced that almost every pitcher would benefit from FULL seasons in both Double-A and Triple-A, and that pushing guys ahead of that schedule is usually the wrong move.

Rusty Ryal is my secret weapon!!!

More on the fantasy league tomorrow….

Well if you had a 1-10 scale, 1 being total-lack-of-polish and 10 being absolute metaphysical polishitude (as prospects go), Brown has gone from about a 2 to a 5. He still has work to do refining his swing and his plate discipline, but he’s made a large amount of progress, and the phillies coaching needs at least some credit for that. They helped Michael Taylor (raw for a college guy) to develop as well.

Well Maddux is a Hall of Famer and obviously you can’t predict Leake to turn out like THAT, but there are some similarities in style, yes. Another comparison would be Brad Radke or Scott Baker to use a couple of Twins comparisons. …guys with good stuff, great K/BB ratios, and the ability to chew innings.

Not much. Teheran’s peak velocity is a little higher.

B C+ B B in that order

That would take quite a bit of work to do it justice, but in general I really like the way the Rays handle their pitching prospects.

Hmm….I’m not worried about the glove.

Offensively….upside would be Hank Blalock in 2003. Downside would be Mark Teahen.

Astros: Castro, Lyles, and Mier would probably make it.
Cardinals: Shelby Miller. Maybe Stock or Garcia.

No idea. Way too early to say. I don’t judge these types based solely on scouting reports…I want to see some pro data. Witness all the hype about Viciedo last year that turned out to be misplaced.

I love Blanks. In a normal park I think he can be a .300 hitter at his peak. In Petco that could be just .280.

Well it is possible they could push him quickly if he pitches well, given their past history as you point out. Given his injury history they might be more cautious but you never know. I’d say the odds are against it but they are not zero.

he’s physicaly strong enough to hit 25-30 but I’m not sure his swing will ever work that way. I’d say 25 peak, around 18-20 most seasons.

Cahill, Cecil, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Harrison, Carmona, Wilson, Eveland.

Rapid fire…dont’ take that TOO seriously. To answer it properly I’d need to look at all of their numbers closely.

Rusty Ryal!

That is an excellent question and one i’ve spent a lot of time thinking about and some time asking people about. Teams are totally aware of the importance of this, of course. One of my long-term projects is to figure out how teams approach this, what sorts of similarities and differences there are in how they look at and “measure” makeup, if such a thing can even BE measured.

They ARE kind of vague. It is sort of a bucket approach. Here is how I see them in my own mind. Also keep in mind that there is a grey area between each category.

Number One “Ace” Bucket: Clemens or Seaver types at the highest end. Current pitchers like Halladay. Lincecum. Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Sabathia.

Number Two Bucket: Guys who are very good/sometimes outstanding. You could have one of these as your ace starter and be fine if the rest of your team is strong. Matt Cain. Andy Pettitte for parts of his career. Javier Vazquez. The border between a strong number two and a “weak” number one is blurry.

Number Three Bucket: A guy who is above average but who isn’t QUITE as good as a number two, or who sometimes dominates but is erratic.. Kevin Millwood currently. Jeff Nieman last year.

Number Four and Five: Guys who are around average but who can eat innings for you

I don’t know. If he gets lit up in Triple-A I think we have to wonder if the velocity decline is permanent. If so, his status will go down quick unless he makes substantial improvements with his secondary pitches.

I’d go to the doctor.

I’d say more solid regular, but there’s nothing wrong with that!

Good question for a longer piece.

Basically I’m not so much sure if it is a particular type as much as a particular development philosophy. With few exceptions (David Price), they move guys up one level at a time, and are especially cautious with high school arms.

Assuming you mean long-term, I’d go Storen, Kimbrel, Runzler

Gonzalez if he got traded to Boston today would hit .295/.410/.600.

The time I hit a fastball from Mike Mahoney (future major league catcher and next door neighbor when I was growing up) over the neighbors house.

I think he can be a number two starter, if he avoids getting hurt and continues to throw strikes the way he did in rookie ball last year.

I’d take Aroldis, Alvarez, and Castro in that order.

I like him but I think he’s a future utility guy if he makes it. If he stays healthy and gets off to a good start this year, you could see him in 2011 depending on needs of the team.

Somewhat similar to Jhoulys Chacin of Colorado, though of course we don’t know what Chacin will really be like yet. Maybe Fausto Carmona. Upside….John Lackey?

Reports are good on him…it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Rangers are. His stuff when healthy would put him in the Top 50 pitching prospects. . .probably not Top 20 though. I gave him a Grade B in the book this year, on the assumption that last year was ruined by the virus and that he’d recover fully. We’ll see if that pans out.

Snider has a brigter future I’d say because he is younger. I think LaPorta can be a solid slugger, but Snider can still develop into an All-star.

Good choice. Remind me if I don’t do this by next week.

I’m a little skeptical and want to see what happens in Double-A. If he pitches well there then I can see him as a number four type. maybe a number three. But until we get advanced numbers I am reserving judgment.

Agreed that he is something of a forgotten guy.

I’d say .270/.320/.430 this year, then a big breakout in 2011.

I can’t begin to speculate. It is just too early to know.

Has some chance to be a 4/5 starter, but must improve on his weak K/BB ratio at Double-A. I don’t buy him as a hot prospect at this point.

Font is a good choice.

Robbie Erlin.

The purpose of life is to love as much as you can, to ease the suffering of others when possible, and to make your corner of the universe a brighter place considering the darkness that pervades so much.

reliever I think. And a future All-Star closer.

oh, no doubt someone with terrific tools who hasn’t done anything with them yet and is still a Grade C or C+ prospect. This is a broader topic worthy of an article. Watch for the piece about shortstops upcoming.

I wouldn’t change anything….I’d continue to focus on a mixture of high school and college talent, and continue to focus on live arms who are also good athletes.

I would have him begin the season in Double-A and I would LEAVE HIM THERE ALL YEAR. If he pitches well, promote him to Triple-A in August for a few starts. I would not give him any major league time unless there was an emergency or unless he suddenly turned into Dwight Gooden.

probably center.

Decker has the best long-term upside value, but it will take longer for him to get to the majors. Carrasco and Young could contribute this year or in 2011. Decker won’t be up before ’12 at the earliest.

His stuff is very strong and I think it was for real.

Short term Frazier
Long term Morrison
CAVEAT: Frazier will be easier to fit on a fantasy team due to better positional versatility.

They aren’t going to provide many steals, though frazier will pick up a few here and there. Morrison better for RBI and HR. ABout even in batting average.

Cause he throws 95 MPH and made progress with his secondary pitches. It is an aggressive grade but I went with my gut.

lol.

If he stays healthy….two.

I doubt he gets to play enough.

He could hit .260/.330/.450 if someone gave him a chance.

Disagree. I don’t think he has that kind of power.

I’d say a .250-.270 hitter with some doubles, 10-15 homers in 500 at-bats.

Upside: Pedro Martinez
Downside: blows his arm out and never gets out of A-ball.

The chance of the latter is greater than the chance of the former.

In between.

it’s all in the timing.

If he hits like this in Double-A, then most people will believe.