Stephen Strasburg Community Projection Results
by John Sickels on Apr 9, 2010 7:57 PM EDT
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Amazingly, we had only 11 entries for this, and one of them required major "adjustments" to the innings pitched category to make workable. The results:
21 games, 20 starts, zero complete games, 121 innings, 56 runs, 50 earned, 3.74 ERA, 118/42 K/BB, 116 hits allowed, 12 homers, 8-6 record, 8.78 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 8.63 H/9.
ZIPS: 114 innings, 4.18 ERA, 113/36 K/BB, 115 hits, 10-9 record, 8.92 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 9.07 H/9.
PECOTA Mean: 191 innings, 4.45 ERA, 220/84 K/BB, 180 hits, 26 homers, 10-11 record, 10.37 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 8.48 H/9.
There aren't many formal projections with Strasburg, and everyone is just guessing here since Strasburg has no pro numbers to look at and translation of college statistics is highly problematic. I do find it interesting that the community and ZIPS have a much higher opinion of Strasburg's control than PECOTA does, but that PECOTA's K/IP projection is much more aggressive.
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So I was the only one
who thinks he’ll have an ERA over 4.50?
re: community project results
in general tend to be far more optimistic than the other projections.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
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