FaBIO Tables of NCAA Pitching 2018 Draft Prospects

I have ceased adding tables but will continue to append some lighter commentary over the next few days (that had been true until I added '18 Division 2er Isaiah Carranza at 12.348). The players are now listed in order of their draft selection. Use the CTL+F find feature to hunt for a specific player or ORG of interest. I will grant each commenter (save for two of them) a single request for the table of ONE Division 1 pitcher (of any draft status) - use your FaBIO Genie wish wisely.

The numbers are percentile rankings versus conference qualfiying peers (either starters or relievers, depending upon seasonal per game workloads). OHB and SHB are Overall Rating versus opposite-handed and same-handed batters, respectively. At the end, AVG (batting average) on Batted Balls) and ISO (isolated power, or slugging percentage minus batting average) on Batted Balls have been appended to give a sense as to what really happened when batters put bat to ball (were batted balls typically hit harder and farther than ordinary?).


Casey Mize, RHP, Junior, Auburn (DET, 1.1)


Mize remains the top NCAA pitcher in this draft class by a wide margin. I suspect that leaning too much on the split change may explain why the OFFB contact skewed earlier and the bISO skewed louder in '18 than in '17, and if true that offering may have to be dealt more carefully in the pro ranks.


Logan Gilbert, RHP, Junior, Stetson (SEA, 1.14)


Gilbert graded out fabulously well in spite of a decrease in GB and reports of diminished fastball velocity. The combo of fewer GB and lower fastball velocity could explain the low mark he earned in the ISO on Batted Balls column. I am going to extend Gilbert the benefit of the doubt on that red number and forecast that he will be the pitcher who is most likely to pull a Griffin Canning on us to open the 2019 season.


Brady Singer, RHP, Junior, Florida (KC, 1.18)


Singer improved his K ability enough in 2017 to cement his status as first-rounder, yet that he projects to be no better than average to half plus skill as a pro has him better suited to going in the back half of the first round than in the first handful of picks. That he maxed out LD Avoid and bISO beyond what he can be reasonably sustained moving forward surely inflated his batted ball rating on the order of 1 to 1.5 standard deviations and a half plus to plus batted ball profile seems more realistic moving forward. At the MLB level Singer is most likely to be a strikethrowing/groundballing middle-to-back-of-rotation starter, and the organization who understands how to optimally integrate analytics and scouting data does not have full-to-near-slot Singer at the top of their draft board until around pick 20 to 30.


Ryan Rolison, LHP, Sophomore, Mississippi (COL, 1.22)


As a true sophomore, Rolison should not be graded as harshly as those who preceded him here. Two nice startery upticks can be appreciated from his freshman swingman campaign in the GB and OHB columns. The question for analytics and scouting departments to answer is what might Rolison look like on these tables and scouting reports come this time next year were he to return for a junior season. Those answers would in turn dictate where to slot him on the Monday night draftboard and how much bonus to offer.


Shane McClanahan, LHP, Redshirt Sophomore, South Florida (TB, 1.31)


McClanahan resembles junior-draft-year A.J. Puk on the FaBIO scales, only that he leans on a changeup more than the slider as his preferred offspeed offering has him seemingly more vulnerable to the PullOFFB. McClanhan's walks stand to be more runs-consequential the more he surrenders the PullOFFB. McClanahan seems to be falling at the moment and could prove to be quite a bargain if he makes it down toward the end of the regular phase of the first round.


Jackson Kowar, RHP, Junior, Florida (KC, 1.33)


Whereas the pending Top 5 to 10 selection of Singer will speak poorly of his future employer, selection of Jackson Kowar in any part of the first round could be construed as a fireable offense per these numbers. Whereas Singer will owe much of his excessive bonus to the Gators pitchers who preceded him, Kowar will owe them darn near all of it.


Daniel Lynch, LHP, Junior, Virginia (KC, 1.34)


Lynch's K ability reached the green after a truly awful '17 season. An erratic NCAA career and an often louder than it should be batted ball profile (achieved mostly in a park that tends to stifle power) has Lynch best cast for the 3rd or 4th round and a very back of rotation MLB SP projection.


Kris Bubic, LHP, Junior, Stanford (KC, 1.40)


The strength of the K is framed between fringy control and a solid batted ball profile. Bubic probably slots on draft boards as a safer second-rounder who just might the guy who the organizations with multiple extra picks take to counterbalance the risks they will incur in chasing less-refined athletes and high-velocity arms from the prep ranks.


Griffin Roberts, RHP, Junior, Wake Forest (STL, 1.43)


Roberts has come a long way since an ugly freshman relief debut. His formerly atrocious control nearly spiked to conference-average in his maiden junior season as a starter, while his K and GB held fairly steady. Where FaBIO questions Roberts most now is in the LD column as there stands to be some straightness issues with his primary fastball that could lead to consistently high singles/batted ball rates in the pros. Roberts has a safe floor of power reliever who can get the K and stifle power should that transition ever become necessary.


Sean Hjelle, RHP, Junior, Kentucky (SF, 2.45)


Here we have another strikethrowing groundballing back-of-rotation starter profile, albeit a poorer one than what Brady Singer brings to the table. Hjelle makes for the best bet to be the first non-Florida-Gator NCAA pitcher overdraft of the evening.


Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, Junior, Memphis (KC, 2.58)


Bowlan's '18 CTL/K gains were offset by a corresponding fall in batted ball profile, with noteworthy losses in the GB and LD Avoid columns.


Tim Cate, LHP, Junior, Connecticut (WAS, 2.65)


Cate is an elite K getter with average to better control who has some issues in the batted ball profile columns between consistently high LD rates and below-average ISO on Batted Ball results (and below what would be projected per his OFFB profile). That Cate has consistently rated better against SHB than OHB in the NCAA ranks could tempt a contending organization to fast-track the diminutive lefty as a late relief K specialist, a role that would figure to temper some portion of whatever batted ball vulnerabilities persist as an MiLB SP.


Nick Sandlin, RHP, Junior, Southern Mississippi (CLE, 2.67)


Probably the best explanation as to why Cleveland went so early on Sandlin lay in that they consider him and his low relief-skewed arm slot a potential late 2018 season bullpen reinforcement if his summer introduction to professional baseball went very swimmingly. The Tribe could still pursue that course for the short term and reassign Sandlin as an advanced A or AA starter to begin the 2019 season.


Michael Grove, RHP, Junior (in Redshirt), West Virginia (LAD, 2.68)


The Dodgers must have been very comfortable with Grove's medicals and his progress in recovery from Tommy John surgery to call his name so soon. Batted ball profile diversification would stand to a focal point of a his development as a professional starter.


Tanner Dodson, RHP, Junior, California (TB, 2.71)


Dodson's strikethrowing (new for '18)/groundballing skew has him projecting as a 7th to 8th inning short reliever at the MLB level.


Josiah Gray, RHP, Junior, LeMoyne (CIN, 2.72)


Gray was intriguing enough that I applied FaBIO to his Division 2 conference for the 2018 season. In his first collegiate season as a full-time SP, Gray was a CTL/K standout who dodged an otherwise loud batted ball profile that featured many a LD and pulled OFFB.


Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP, Junior, Texas A&M (COL, 2.76)


Though Kilkenny achieved some GB strides in '18 he still looks short on out-generation skills and thus projects as a future relief convert at the higher levels of the minors.


Paul Richan, RHP, Junior, San Diego (CHC, 2.78)


Aside from clear and apparent struggles with the LD Richan has posted consecutive strong seasons as a CTL/K/GB starter at San Diego. For as long as he continues to avoid the BB and PullOFFB those extra singles on his pitching scorecard should not be overly runs-consequential.


Jake Wong, RHP, Junior, Grand Canyon (SF, 3.80)


Wong projects as a weak-contact inducing innings-eater who sported an '18 pitching profile that was not too shy of what Brady Singer posted. A forward OHB/SHB splits bias skews Wong still more in the back-of-rotation direction.


Konnor Pilkington, LHP, Junior, Mississippi State (CHW, 3.81)


With the relievery batted ball profile that Pilkington has posted in his two full-time SP seasons, one would ideally see a heavy dose of K to offset the preponderance of aerial events. In the absence of that, Pilkington projects as a reliever with hope that his K ability will play up in shorter bursts.


Hogan Harris, LHP, Junior, Louisiana Lafayette (OAK, 3.85)


Harris disappointed on an overall basis in '18 despite gains made in the batted ball profile realm of GB. He has battled injuries at multiple points of his NCAA career and that and inconsistent fastball velocity has him best cast as a middle of Day 2 selection.


Blaine Knight, RHP, Junior, Arkansas (BAL, 3.87)


After showing that he could pitch effectively as a groundballing freshman and as a flyballing draft-eligible sophomore, Knight returned to Fayetteville to demonstrate that he can pitch poorly as a junior flyballer. The red digits in the batted ball profile columns just scream "certain Day 1 overdraft" who projects as a reliever rather than starter as an MLBer.


Aaron Hernandez, RHP, Junior, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (LAA, 3.93)


Hernandez projects to have very strong out-generation skills per his K and batted ball profiles, and he will need to remain strong in both dimensions to offset poorer control and remain on track for development as a major league SP.


Jackson Goddard, RHP, Junior, Kansas (ARI, 3.99)


Goddard has underperformed his scouting profile for a while now, though he did manage to post two promising startery traits in the K and OHB columns during his junior spring campaign.


Durbin Feltman, RHP, Junior, Texas Christian (BOS, 3.100)


The herky-jerky Feltman looked more like his freshman-season self in '18, with Ks aplenty. Despite extremely red OFFB/PullOFFB numbers, the ISO on Batted Balls somehow made its way into the green. At the least Feltman projects as a bat-missing K specialist MLB short reliever, with some potential to evolve into a closer if the control and batted ball profiles remain passable.


Reid Schaller, RHP, Redshirt Freshman, Vanderbilt (WAS, 3.101)


Schaller consistently threw his primary fastball in the mid-90s and flashed some K/GB/OHB abilities while working in shorter stints in the wake of a true freshman season lost to Tommy John rehab. Here, the Nats stand to be gambling early in the draft on a riskier upside NCAA pitcher play just as they did a year ago with Seth Romero and Wil Crowe.


John Rooney, LHP, Junior, Hofstra (LAD, 3.104)


Rooney's forte is the K and should he further solidify his batted ball profile he could conceivably exceed a mid-rotation MLB SP future. Otherwise, he would have a very safe floor as a K-specialist short reliever.


Colton Eastman, RHP, Junior, Cal Sate Fullerton (PHI, 4.107)


Eastman returned in '18 after missing most of '17 with elbow trouble and posted another strong season. The K is his clear forte. Changeup reliance skews his aerial batted ball contact in the louder direction.


Adam Hill, RHP, Junior, South Carolina (NYM, 4.110)


Hill's control struggles and forward OHB/SHB splits portend an MLB relief future.


Dylan Coleman, RHP, Junior, Missouri State (SD, 4.111)


Coleman possesses potentially knockout K stuff to accompany a velocity/movement-fueled above-average-to-better batted ball profile, with poorer control working against the overall profile. The closer the CTL Rating skews toward league-average and more the OHB rating skews green the better the prospects of a mid-rotation MLB SP outcome. Otherwise there would appear to be a very safe floor of a higher-leverage short reliever in play.


Tristan Beck, RHP, Redshirt Sophomore, Stanford (ATL, 4.112)


Beck returned to the mound in '18 but rather disappointed a formerly fond FaBIO in the K column. A wiser adviser might encourage Beck to entertain returning to Palo Alto for another campaign where he might pitch himself back into sure first-rounder status (and occupy a rotation spot alongside his brother, Brendan, who just posted an 89 Overall Rating in his freshman season despite mustering only a 18 K Rating).


Aaron Shortridge, RHP, California, (PIT, 4.114)


Shortridge is short enough on out-generation skills that a longer-term pro starter future seems very unlikely and even more so given his historical skew toward forward OHB/SHB splits.


Sean Wymer, RHP, Junior, Texas Christian (TOR, 4.116)


Wymer's K and GB abilities took a tumble as he was stretched out into a starter as a '18 junior. Whereas Wymer remained elite against OHB, his SHB performance tumbled down into the red. While his new employer will surely send him out as a starter in April '19, Wymer seems a safe bet as an MLB short reliever should his stuff measure up short in a starting role.


Michael Plassmeyer, LHP, Junior, Missouri (SEA, 4.118)


Plassmeyer has been very hittable for a relative GBer per his career LD Avoid and AVG on Batted Balls marks. Beyond needing more horizontal action on his primary fastball, he also needs to strengthen his anti-RHB game (K ability, esp.) for a back of rotation MLB LHSP projection to become more realistic than it is now.


Kyle Bradish, RHP, Junior, New Mexico State (LAA, 4.121)


Bradish sets up as one of the more overpowering K/muted contact NCAA RHSP in the draft class, and if he continues to manifest CTL and OHB gains over the next few seasons he could exceed a mid-rotation MLB SP projection.


Steven Gingery, LHP, Junior (in Redshirt), Texas Tech (STL, 4.123)


Imagine how much higher Gingery would have gone if he had kept up that 7-batter pace. Unfortunately a UCL tear aborted his season and prevented us from seeing what was to come.


Ryan Feltner, RHP, Junior, Ohio State (COL, 4.126)


Beyond obvious struggles with control, Feltner has consistently allowed more LD than he should have per his GB rate and relatedly could use more armside run or cut on his primary fastball that mostly just sinks. As those are not the only fundamentals flaws on his 3-season FaBIO scorecard, an MLB SP future just seems incredibly unrealistic.


Frank German, RHP, Junior, North Florida (NYY, 4.127)


German posted plus plus CTL and plus plus K ratings in a phenomenal junior campaign, but seemed to trade a large dose of GB to up his K game. The '18 batted ball profile and continuing forward OHB/SHB splits favor a MLB RHRP projection for the moment, though the right organization may be able to recapture some of those forgone '17 batted ball profile traits and strengthen the probability of mid-rotation starter outcome.


Ethan Roberts, RHP, Junior, Tennessee Tech (CHC, 4.128)


Baseball America notes some cut on Roberts' lower 90s primary fastball which probably explains the elite batted ball profile results that he posted this spring. As the offspeed repertoire tends to play much better than scouting reports portend, Roberts projects to be a higher-leverage versus all-comers pre-closer short reliever in the not too far off future.


Ryan Weiss, RHP, Redshirt Sophomore, Wright State (ARI, 4.129)


Weiss is a control-first starter who will need to recapture much of the lost K ability from '17 to succeed as a pro starter given the presence of a fringy batted ball profile and forward OHB/SHB splits.


Jake Irvin, RHP, Junior, Oklahoma (WAS, 4.131)


Irvin went triple green on the CTL/K/Batted Ball triple in '18 on the heels of a rather balanced and successful sophomore campaign. The one blemish on the '18 scorecoard was that the OFFB contact was very early and that would explain the subpar 39 ISO on Batted Balls. Irvin, too, would have some potential to achieve a mid-rotation SP projection.


Adam Scott, LHP, Senior, Wofford (CLE, 4.133)


reillocity's money-saving community mock draft 4th-rounder would up being the first college senior pitcher drafted and in the same neighborhood of that pick. Scott flashed a new skill of the GB in a fourth strong season among four NCAA SP campaigns, and he might really tear through full-season A and advanced A baseball in 2019 if he can continue to bolster his batted ball profile.


Adam Wolf, LHP, Junior, Louisville (DET, 5.135)


The '18 FaBIO marks were rather good as former short reliever Wolf upped his batters faced total per game by nearly a factor of four. A back of rotation MLB SP forecast starts to look a bit more probable if Wolf can find an extra mph or two on his primary fastball and improve one of his offspeed offerings.


Jonathan Stiever, RHP, Junior, Indiana (CHW, 5.138)


Stiever sacrificed some of his formerly plus plus control while in pursuit of more K in '18. With the concurrent GB gains, Stiever's short-term developmental focus should come in the area of OHB performance and any improvements there could have him projecting in the direction of a mid-rotation MLB SP.


Ryley Gilliam, RHP, Junior, Clemson (NYM, 5.140)


Gilliam was a one-trick pony K or bust reliever in the spring after posting a more solid all-around season the year before. Per the historical marks in the LD Avoid column, Gilliam would stand to have a Cal Quantrill straightness to his primary fastball.


Brady Feigl, RHP, Junior, Mississippi (OAK, 5.143)


While Feigl, who lost his true freshman season to Tommy John Surgery, fits the strikethrowing groundballing profile, forward OHB/SHB splits and persistent LD problems have him projecting as a future reliever.


Austin Cox, LHP, Junior, Mercer (KC, 5.152)


While Cox successfully introduced the GB to his FaBIO scorecard in his '18 junior campaign, he continued to accrue LD as he had before with another conspiculously red AVG on Batted Balls number. So look for Cox to have some issues with the single in the pros and that will exert some pressure on him to maintain the gaudy K rate and better avoid the BB and louder OFFB events.


Cole Sands, RHP, Junior, Florida State (MIN, 5.154)


After thoroughly uninspiring freshman and sophomore campaigns, the out-generation skills of the former top prep prospect shot upward in '18 with noteworthy gains in the K and OHB columns. The one not quite red flag would be that he continued to surrender louder contact per the 19 ISO result, which suggests that his mistakes continued to be hit hard despite the more robust batted ball profile.


Jake Bird, RHP, Senior, UCLA (COL, 5.156)


Bird's bleak big league hopes would involve a strikethrowing-groundballing middle relief outcome.


Matt Mercer, RHP, Junior, Oregon (ARI, 5.159)


Mercer fits the mold of an underachiever whose results do not match the stuff. His K and OHB results improved in '18 but most else went the other direction.


Cody Deason, RHP, Junior, Arizona (HOU, 5.162)


Deason joins Matt Mercer as another underachieving Pac-12 RHSP. Deason flashes some OHB abilities but will need to develop better K skills and a more startery batted ball profile to avoid an eventual relegation to relief.


Codi Heuer, RHP, Junior, Wichita State (CHW, 6.168)


Fringy K ability and very forward OHB/SHB splits have Heuer projecting as a reliever.


Michael Flynn, RHP, Junior, Arizona (PIT, 6.174)


Cody Deason's rotationmate also underwhelmed in '18 NCAA action with his FaBIO numbers trending downward as his batters faced per game total doubled versus '17.


Miller Hogan, RHP, Junior, Saint Louis (TB, 6.180)


One of FaBIO's favorites among draft-eligible NCAA SP, Hogan has exceptional movement on his multiple harder offerings (which are fairly average in terms of velocity) and that makes him very tough to hit. The one blemish in an '18 campaign where his CTL/K combo was also excellent was that his OFFB contact skewed early and that led to a subpar ISO on batted balls. Hogan could well evolve into one of the grand thefts of this collegiate class.


Austin Warren, RHP, Senior, UNC Wilmington (LAA, 6.181)


The FaBIO ratings of Warren, who sports a low 90s fastball and an above-average to better slider, shot upward across the board in his second NCAA campaign after transferring from the junior college ranks before his '17 junior debut.


Zach Haake, RHP, Junior, Kentucky (KC, 6.182)


With two very red FaBIO lines in two NCAA Division 1 seasons to date, good luck to whichever organization tries to lure this very long-term development project into the professional ranks this summer.


Edgar Gonzalez, RHP, Junior, Fresno State (STL, 6.183)


Gonzalez posted one of the top FaBIO lines among full-time '18 NCAA SP. While the OFFB contact skewing early and persistent forward OHB/SHB probably cap his ceiling in the neighborhood of a mid-rotation MLB SP, Gonzalez figures to continue to post stronger numbers in the pro ranks for the next few seasons.


Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Redshirt Junior, Oregon State (MIL, 6.185)


Rasmussen in now in the midst of recovery from a second Tommy John surgery in just over 2 calendar years. He now sets up as your classic extreme-risk versus higher-reward possibility case.


R.J. Freure, RHP, Sophomore, Pittsburgh (HOU, 6.192)


While sophomore Freure has yet to be turned loose as a Pitt starter, the Astros saw enough in the K and batted ball profile departments to announce him as starting pitcher and surely plan to develop him as a tandem rotation guy for at least a few years. In both NCAA seasons Freure's actual batted ball results (per AVG and ISO on Batted Balls) were a lot louder than they should have been, suggesting that his mistake pitches were severely punished.


Bryan Warzek, LHP, Junior, New Orleans (LAD, 6.194)


Warzek represents tremendous in this range of the draft proceedings owing to a very strong K/batted ball profile combo and 91 to 95 mph fastball velocity. If Warzek can keep his pro CTL Rating north of a red number, he may emerge as a second Dodgers mid-rotation LHSP candidate from this draft class to join John Rooney from earlier (3.104).


Tim Brennan, RHP, Junior, Saint Joseph's (TEX, 7.209)


Brennan projects as a strikethrowing-groundballing starter who just might have enough in the K tank to crack an MLB rotation a few years from now.


Tyler Gray, RHP, Senior, Central Arkansas (KC, 7.212)


Senior Gray has been a consistent FaBIO standout over his career at Central Arkansas with forward splits and a batted ball profile that mostly played under his GB rating being the limiting factors on his pro ceiling.


Josh Winder, RHP, Junior, Virginia Military Institute (MIN, 7.214)


Though Winder does not seem to possess an overly dominant fundamental, he grades out well across the board with high OHB batter Overall Ratings and that his him projecting as a safer back-of-rotation MLB SP to middle reliever than one would typically find available in this round of the draft.


Andrew Quezada, RHP, Junior, Cal State Fullerton (COL, 7.216)


While Quezada attracted some draft attention a year ago after his two juco seasons, aside from some GB generation and Pull OFFB avoidance he does not possess much in the way of startery performance fundamentals and that has him projecting as a lower-leverage reliever at the big league level.


Daniel Bies, RHP, Redshirt Junior, Gonzaga (NYY, 7.217)


Bies, whose medical history includes Tommy John surgery, made some large gains in the CTL/K departments this spring and will now be challenged to solidify his batted ball profile. There is some potential for a mid-rotation MLB SP if his newfound skills translate to professional play and his arm remains sound.


Cody Morris, RHP, Sophomore, South Carolina (CLE, 7.223)


Morris' CTL/K game trended downward as he was stretched out another 4 batters per game in his sophomore season. On the plus side, he has posted good to better OHB ratings in both seasons.


Joey Murray, RHP, Junior, Kent State (TOR, 8.236)


Though full-blown FaBIO ratings date back only to 2015, not too many Division 1 junior pitchers over the last few decades stand to have posted a 100 Overall Rating in their first 3 NCAA seasons. That is a rather amazing outcome in in itself and even more so given that Murray seldom eclipses 90 mph with his primary fastball and his offspeed offerings only elicit mediocre scouting grades.


Joey Gerber, RHP, Junior, Illinois (SEA, 8.238)


Gerber posted a more stereotypical late-relievery BB/K/IFFB/OFFB FaBIO scorecard in '18 after inducing GB at a plus plus rate in the prior season.


Connor Van Hoose, RHP, Senior, Bucknell (NYY, 8.247)


The K/IFFB/OFFB profile and forward OHB/SHB splits have recent senior Van Hoose projecting as a RHB-skewed short reliever in the more advanced levels of the professional ranks.


Zach Mort, RHP, Junior, George Mason (CHC, 8.248)


Mort makes for another under-the-radar FaBIO standout who could well make it to the show as a higher-floored back-of-rotation starter candidate owing to what look to be very solid fundamentals across the board.


Tarik Skubal, LHP, Redshirt Junior, Seattle (DET, 9.255)


Skubal lost much of 2016 and all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery and postoperative rehabilitation only to return in '18 and post a wilder K/IFFB/OFFB-fueled pitching profile that projects more relievery than startery. Skubal skews superb value for Round 9 but will have to develop a second fundamental beyond the K to evolve in the direction of a mid-rotation MLB LHSP prospect.


Bryce Montes De Oca, RHP, Redshirt Junior, Missouri (NYM, 9.260)


While Montes de Oca has consistently induced weak contact with an explosive fastball, his control has been extremely poor. Between that defect and his amateur arm injury problems he has never been able to take on a full-time starter's workload since entering the collegiate ranks. A wilder, weak-contact-inducing short reliever who has some semblance of K ability would be the most realistic future MLB outcome.


Kevin Magee, LHP, Senior, St. John's (BAL, 9.265)


Magee has posted his fair share of green FaBIO marks over the years even though he seldom gets his primary fastball into the 90s. A lower-leverage all-comers reliever makes for the likeliest long-term future role.


Nick Lee, RHP, Junior, Louisiana-Lafayette (TB, 9.270)


That Lee leans more heavily on a changeup than breaking ball for whiffs explains the earliness of his OFFB contact and reverse OHB/SHB splits. That the changeup reliance is adversely affecting a batted ball profile that is otherwise rife with GB gives him a better shot at a back-of-rotation MLB SP than would be the case if he were the more typical flyballing RHP who relies on a changeup.


Mick Vorhof, RHP, Senior, Grand Canyon (NYY, 9.277)


Vorhof, who pairs a mid-to-low-90s fastball with a downer curve, posted one of the best FaBIO lines among '18 NCAA relievers. The strong all-around '18 pitching profile and four seasons of 95 or better OHB Ratings have Vorhoff pegged as a logical tandem starting pitcher candidate for April '19. At worst, Vorhof makes for a higher-floored MLB short relief candidate.


Tyler Holton, LHP, Junior (in Redshirt), Florida State (ARI, 9.279)


A la Gingery from earlier, this LHSP also sustained a UCL tear while in the midst of his first '18 start. Unlike Gingery, Holton falls short of 90mph velocity despite posting a somewhat comparable profile and it remains unclear if Holton will complete his rehab as a professional or opt to return to Tallahassee and try to raise his draft stock as a redshirt junior.


Brian Eichhorn, RHP, Junior, Georgia Southern (CLE, 9.283)


Eichhorn has only gotten better at the K as an NCAAer and seemingly also has a knack for avoiding the barell (LD). He has enough (lower 90s) velocity on his primary fastball to start as a pro and sets up as another potential later Day 2 steal who has a definite shot at a mid-to-back-of-rotation MLB SP future.


Robert Broom, RHP, Junior, Mercer (CLE, 10.313)


Submariner Broom sets up as one on the more interesting relievers to watch in his upcoming fall transition to professional play. Noteworthily, Broom rated plus plus against OHB in the last two seasons despite coming from a a lower than low armslot.


Jake Higginbotham, LHP, Junior, Clemson (ATL, 11.322)


Higginbotham showed little in the way of out-generation skills in an '18 return from a throwing elbow stress fracture.


Joe DeMers, RHP, Junior, Washington (OAK, 11.323)


DeMers projects as a strikethrowing groundballing reliever down the road apiece owing to shortness of K ability and forward OHB/SHB splits.


Riley Thompson, RHP, Redshirt Sophomore, Louisville (CHC, 11.338)


Thompson, who sat out 2016 owing to Tommy John surgery, had a beyond poor 2018 redshirt sophomore season and sets up as a very challenging reclamation project were he to opt for the pros this summer.


Brett Conine, RHP, Junior, Cal State Fullerton (HOU, 11.342)


After a sophomore relief season in which plus to plus plus CTL/K/GB/OHB ratings had Conine looking like a prospective starting pitcher convert, his GB and OHB (more so) ratings took a tumble in a junior return to short relief. A signed Conine just may open 2019 as a tandem starter for the Astros lower full-season A affiliate, as the organization seeks to recapture some of the 2017 FaBIO magic while stretching him out over a larger batters faced per game workload.


Stephen Kolek, RHP, Junior, Texas A&M (LAD, 11.344)


The low CTL/K ratings and higher GB rating had the junior season edition of Kolek resembling his big brother.


Isaiah Carranza, RHP, Junior, Azusa Pacific (CHW, 12.348)


The K and GB Ratings each increased by 2 standard deviations in the aftermath of Carranza's transfer from Oregon to Division 2 Azusa Pacific. The LD Avoid Rating was thrice lower than it should have been per the GB/OFFB ratio suggests that his primary fastball straightens out at times (esp. in the horizontal direction). That Carranza went undrafted until Day 3 was likely owed to that he sustained some sort of injury towards the end of the season that cut short a few outings and ultimately rendered him unavailable during his squad's NCAA regional.


Nolan Kingham, RHP, Junior, Texas (ATL, 12.352)


For a second consecutive season, Kingham avoided the walk well and induced an above-average number of GB while he struggled to collect the K.


Nick Allgeyer, LHP, Redshirt Junior, Iowa (TOR, 12.356)


2016 Tommy John patient Allgeyer will need to solidify his batted ball profile and bolster his OHB skills to succeed for a longer spell as a professional LHSP.


Jon Olsen, RHP, Junior, UCLA (MIN, 12.364)


May (non-Tommy-John) elbow surgery took Olsen out of play as a potential Day 2 draftee and may have him returning to Westwood for 2019.


Justin Lewis, RHP, Redshirt Junior, Kentucky (ARI, 12.369)


Lewis' K Rating spiked in a junior redshirt return to Lexington after nealy going pro the prior summer and his OHB results continued to impress as they had in the two prior average overall seasons. On the down side, a minus minus ISO on Batted Balls made his season results worse than they probably should have been.


Jason Bilous, RHP, Junior, Coastal Carolina (CHW, 13.378)


A fringy batted ball profile amplifies the runs consequences of Bilous' many walks, and that has him projecting as a K specialist pre-closer reliever.


Jonathan Heasley, RHP, Sophomore, Oklahoma State (KC, 13.392)


With plenty of prospective room for FaBIO improvement, Heasley would be wise to return to the collegiate ranks for his junior season and even more so given the Royals' organizational struggles to develop pitchers.


Davis Martin, RHP, Junior, Texas Tech (CHW, 14.408)


The CTL and K Ratings of Martin nearly reversed in '18 versus his prior two seasons. That Martin has rated so poorly against OHB as a junior and sophomore has his pro SP prospects looking rather bleak for the moment.


Michael Byrne, RHP, Junior, Florida (CIN, 14.409)


Extreme strikethrower Byrne lost some measure K ability versus '17 as he induced more GB. Though the NCAA reliever may be a bit short on fastball velocity and out-generation skills, one might not be surprised if his professional employer were to send him out next spring as a starter.


Nick Sprengel, LHP, Junior, San Diego (TB, 15.450)


Sprengel's control plummeted in '18 as his AVG and ISO on Batted Balls cratered. Despite all that, stronger startery traits remained present in the K, GB, PullOFFB, and OHB columns.


Nick Frank, RHP, Junior, Saint Mary's (LAA, 15.451)


Frank worked as a control-first starter in his first Division 1 season after transferring from the California juco ranks.


Sam Bordner, RHP, Junior, Louisville (MIA, 16.477)


Bordner was on a very nice trajectory in 2018 before April elbow trouble prompted a shutdown.


Zach Linginfelter, RHP, Sophomore, Tennessee (WAS, 19.581)


The highly touted '16 prep righthander has twice now posted stronger out-generation skills around poorer control results while working as a Tennessee swingman.


Isaiah Campbell, RHP, Redshirt Sophomore, Arkansas (LAA, 24.721)


The academically-inclined Campbell seems likely to be back in Fayetteville for the spring of '19, where he will especially need to revamp his OHB repertoire and approach.


Aaron Pinto, RHP, Senior, Stony Brook (CLE, 24.733)


Pinto has posted some of the strongest FABIO bullpen ratings for 3 seasons running. Rob Ozga of has Pinto with an 87-94 mph fastball and a better-caliber slider.


Austin Bergner, RHP, Sophomore, North Carolina (ARI, 32.969)


In his first season as a full-time starter, sophomore Bergner flashed an above-average assortment of fundamentals that included beyond plus GB ability and very nearly plus OHB results. The very unlikely to sign Bergner may emerge as one of the top '19 draft juniors if his CTL/K game were to make another leap forward.


Zach Hess, RHP, Sophomore, Louisiana State (ARI, 34.1012)


Hess has some definite developmental work to do in the realms of batted ball profile and OHB repertoire upon his spring '19 return to baton Rouge.


Luke Heimlich, LHP, Senior, Oregon State (Undrafted)


If there are two consistent mild blemishes on Heimlich's scorecard they would be that he has allowed more LD than he should have per his GB rate and his OFFB conact has skewed early. In neither case have those flaws showed up much in the AVG/ISO on Batted Balls columns.


Noah Song, RHP, Junior, Navy (Undrafted)


Song probably aims for a senior season at Army now, after which time his professional prospects get somewhat easier to sort out versus his prospective service commitment.


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