My 7th (!) shadow draft, 6th time going all 40. I'll be updating signings as they come in/I become aware of them. Commence Formatting Nightmare
|1||Xavier Edwards||SS||GA HS||2,815,900||2,815,900||0|
|2||Alek Thomas||OF||IL HS||1,086,900||1,200,000||113,100|
|3||Kyle Bradish||RHP||JR||New Mexico State||576,400||475,000||-101,400|
|4||Frank German||RHP||JR||North Florida||430,400||350,000||-80,400|
|5||Lawrence Butler||OF||GA HS||320,700||320,700||0|
|6||Tyler Gray||RHP||SR||Central Arkansas||247,600||2,500||-245,100|
|8||Nick Lee||RHP||JR||Lousiana - Lafayette||159,800||157,300||-2,500|
|9||Brian Eichhorn||RHP||JR||Georgia Southern||145,600||150,000||4,400|
|10||Michael Perri||SS||SR||San Francisco||137,800||3,000||-134,800|
|11||Nick Northcut||3B||OH HS||565,000||440,000|
|14||Nick Sprengel||LHP||JR||San Diego|
|15||Niko Hulsizer||OF||JR||Morehead State|
|16||Ruben Cardenas||OF||JR||Cal State Fullerton|
|18||Kelvin Smith||SS||GA HS||140,000||15,000|
|20||Marcus Evey||RHP||JR||Tennessee Tech|
|21||Saul Gonzalez||RHP||FL HS||175,000||50,000|
|24||Blakely Brown||RHP||SO||Georgia Southern||132,500||7,500|
|25||Rylan Thomas||1B||SO||Central Florida|
|26||Daniel Robinson||OF||JR||Central Michigan|
|27||Jaylen Smith||LHP||TX HS|
|28||Tyler Carr||RHP||SR||South Alabama|
|29||Clayton Daniel||2B||SR||Jacksonville State|
|30||Kaleo Johnson||3B||JR||Montana State - Billings|
|32||Sincere Smith||SS||GA HS|
|37||Keyshawn Askew||LHP||GA HS|
|38||Brian Metoyer||RHP||JR||LSU - Eunice|
|39||Basiel Williams||OF||LA HS|
Have an extra 300K to go before exceeding the 5% threshold. Strategy was basically to play it straight and get as long a draft as possible. At this moment in MLB, I think you should try to get your power cheap.
Comments on the top 10 rounds and post-10 notables...
Xavier Edwards: stuck with my gut on this one. Had an ugly run in with Delvin Perez a couple years ago, but back on the horse when it comes to shortstops. There's some talk that Edwards is more of a 2B, but whatever, I have no doubt he can hack it. Came in at a way over slot 2.6 mil to the Padres later in the draft, I'll bump the (former) Vandy commit up to to full slot here
Alek Thomas: Another undersized HS hitter with a good combination of a polished bat and athleticism at a premium position, and adding to the veritable lollipop guild of OFs I've constructed in my shadows. Had to hold off on locking Thomas in because I was worried he might have monster bonus demands that would make me reshuffle everything else, but came in at a manageable 1.2 mil. He's a tremendous value. Defense is the thing with Thomas, but I think his smooth swing and general quickness gives him a chance to hit for a lot more power than expected.
Kyle Bradish: definitely my "Do not leave the draft without him" player, usually there's just one or two of those per year who stand out. Been smitten since the CCL performance. He'll need to hammer out some of the wildness that's "plagued" him in his career and really hasn't improved at all, but the stuff is there to blow away low minors hitter out of the gate.
Frank German: seems like there's always one real Yankee pick I'm totally on board with, and this is the one. I do not see him as a reach by any stretch of the imagination - just not famous and a late bloomer. Had a ridiculously dominant year, and tougher opponents didn't fare much better than the ASun did. Not the thick-set high-effort guy you'd expect a mid major statistical standout to be either, really passes the eye test in the scant video I've seen.
Lawrence Butler: Round 5 seems like the place to take a shot. Thought about PJ Hilson and Addison Barger here as well, but Butler won out. I definitely get the hype, and the Shadow Yankees are short on this type. Butler is a COF for now, but he's going to get huge in the coming years and is maybe destined for 1B, but if it all comes together that's not a deal-breaker.
Tyler Gray: Took Marcel Renteria as a senior in the 6th last year, same kind of deal with Gray, as he's a very legit prospect who just happens to come cheap. I don't know exactly how cheap, but should be cheap enough to make things work. Quintessential #5 starter prospect, and junior age to boot.
Nick Lee: he had some juice earlier, still does to a certain degree, and the velocity/change/grounders combo makes me think he'll work nicely in the pen. He's on the gangly side and his mechanics are sloppy so there's a chance to improve and stick in the rotation, or get back to it as the case my be.
Tarik Skubal: here's another guy I wasn't going to not take. Unsigned flier from last year (community mock pick too!), he's surely come to his senses now. Last year he was a big hard throwing lefty with great stuff and poor command coming off of injury, kudos to him for betting on himself I guess, but the control problem got way worse. Did improve some down the stretch. Has the tools to start, but the profile of an excellent reliever.
Brian Eichhorn: here's what you'd expect Frank German to be, and with a similar trajectory. Very impressive performer including in the CCL. Built like a brick shithouse, but has some projection mechanics-wise. Possible BOR/swingman.
Michael Perri: senior sign, actually went in the 21st round so a little off the board, and will probably cost less than 10K. Transferred from Pepperdine and for all intents and purposes has just two years of play under his belt. Very quietly has a very striking profile - big aggressive strong MIF who never strikes out.
Nick Northcut: only took 565K! 3rd round peanuts. I cannot heap enough praise on Northcut.
Hunter Feduccia: is right up my alley, flying under the radar after somehow managing to break both of his hands. A very athletic catcher with an inside-out swing and a solid approach.
Gus Varland: put up some crazy numbers against D-II competition. Looks like a regular guy and throws hard with high effort, so definitely a relief profile, but the delivery is more explosive than it is violent so I hope he gets a shot at starting early on.
Nick Sprengel: fuck it. Sprengel was 1 non-implosive year away from being maybe at worst a 4th or 5th rounder checking most every box for a BOR lefty type, but instead...it was a singularly wild and unlucky year for him. A steal if he signs and gets not crazy.
Niko Hulsizer: like Feduccia, he was also taken by the Dodgers in real life and he also broke his hand. Has 1st round tools and...not drafted hitting ability. Although he did cut down on his Ks a bit this year, he is going to strike out a lot, but in the 15th round, that's ok.
Ruben Cardenas: he really stuck out to me in the CWS. Very distinctive player, visually. When I looked up his blurbs they described him as having a slow motor, low energy, unexplosive, slow twitch, underachiever. My reaction was equally cliche-filled: cold blooded, long levers, beyond slow twitch, more like no twitch. In a player who performed better, you might call it smooth and evincing natural athleticism and hand-eye coordination. Despite his lethargic manner he has a plus arm and appears to have at least average speed, puts bat on ball well despite a slow trigger and a long swing. Body doesn't portend good things, but it's an incredibly interesting combination of traits and something could shake out with coaching and conditioning. Has some swag.
Barrett Loseke: a real Yankee pick I stuck with. Arkansas swingman with scattershot control and an undistinguished career, there might be more to him than meets the eye. All projection. Flies off the rubber and damn near does a split prior to release. There's a lot to sort out but when he's on you can see the athleticism and deception to turn into a relief prospect.
Kelvin Smith: late round scratch of my lingering Addison Barger itch for a versatile HS INF. Smith is very raw and probably moves over to 2B or 3B, but a great build and smooth actions to be a solid defender along with a quick bat.
CJ Alexander: Blaze's Bro hit for an insane amount of power at the JuCo level. Regarded as a stretch at 3B despite what is presumably a plus arm.
Marcus Evey: Yankee pick I liked. Evey had been a reliever until this season and acquitted himself fairly well, but a relief profile for sure. A little guy at 5-10 170 but pitches like a big guy with a big arm circle, high release point, mid-90s velocity and some pretty significant command problems.
Blakely Brown: another one! Undersized righty reliever with nothing but tread on the tires. A couple wild years at Georgia, didn't pitch in 2018 after transferring.
Mike Pascoe: lightly recruited upstate NY high school product who went the JuCo route and emerged sitting 95 in relief this year and struck out 27 in 15 innings. Self made, seems like a hard worker who takes his shit seriously. Basically Bizarro Blakely Brown.
Saul Gonzalez: bears a superficial resemblance to Grayson Rodriguez with his build and delivery. 6'7 230, decent athlete and arm seems to work reasonably well. He was signed away from Alabama State above slot. Raw, but a very high ceiling arm for this stage of the draft.
Fabian Pena: local pick out of Manhattan College. Seems to have fallen impossibly far, so I wonder if he'll be a tough sign. Overall numbers have regressed over his career, still seems like an extreme value in the 24th round. Bilingual catcher, strong arm, should make his way through the minors over the years regardless of how he hits.
Rylan Thomas: probably a very long shot. He's a 5'11" right handed 1B, struck out way, way too much, and an eligible sophomore. He produces massive exit velocities, but I don't know what he has to hold out for. He's not going to get any more money next year.
Daniel Robinson: a big OF who never strikes out and can run. Sound the alarm.
Kaleo Johnson: put up some insane numbers for powerhouse Montana State - Billings, an insanely favorable hitting environment, after transferring from junior college. Played 3B but definitely a 1B body, maybe COF.
Edmond Americaan: Athletic 4th OF type with good defensive tools and some power potential. This is the third consecutive year I've drafted him...enough already.
Sincere Smith: Stuck with Yankee pick, cool name, had been primarily a football player.