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2018 NCAA Division I Senior Statistical Sleepers: The Arms

Ever since the new draft bonus pools were put in place for the MLB Draft, teams have used rounds 6-10 to draft and sign college baseball seniors for cheap, and use the savings on earlier (or later) draft picks.

Some seniors are guys that teams have known about since high school; players who perhaps struggled over their first three years and put it together as seniors, or players who still haven’t put their high school promise together. And sometimes, teams just look for seniors who have outperformed their peers, regardless of the type of tools they have.

And for all of you fellow shadow drafters, I hope this helps!

These seniors are ranked by what is called daSauce. Using some basic statistics, I try to determine which pitchers could successfully transition to pro ball. It is weighted onto the same scale as the bats, so they are comparable. There are other stats on this table, so feel free to copy/paste into excel and play around a bit.

Without further ado, here is a list of senior statistical senior arms.

Player Team Pos W L APP GS IP ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB daSauce
Seth Kinker Ohio State P 6 1 28 0 60.3 1.49 1.03 8.8 11.8 18.66
Carter Love College of Charleston P 7 0 26 0 71.7 1.38 1.00 7.2 6.3 9.00
Jack Maynard UNC Greensboro P 5 3 29 0 63.3 2.13 1.23 11.5 7.4 8.89
Colten Schmidt UL Lafayette P 7 0 16 15 106.3 2.46 1.01 7.6 10.0 8.47
Luke Heimlich Oregon State P 14 1 16 15 104.7 2.49 1.10 12.0 6.6 7.96
Kevin Magee St. John's P 6 3 14 13 72.7 2.48 1.21 11.1 6.9 7.07
Adam Scott Wofford P 8 5 18 15 103.3 3.14 1.25 11.9 7.6 6.37
Matthew McCollough Houston Baptist P 8 3 15 15 108.3 2.99 1.10 8.2 8.3 5.68
Jose Tirado Jackson State P 6 2 31 0 64.0 2.67 1.17 10.4 5.7 5.21
Josh Maciejewski Charlotte P 9 2 15 15 104.0 2.25 1.07 9.0 4.3 4.47
Andrew Wantz UNC Greensboro INF 6 0 26 0 55.0 2.95 1.25 13.3 4.5 4.43
Rion Murrah High Point P 5 3 24 0 56.7 2.07 1.11 8.7 3.9 4.10
Jake Miednik Florida Atlantic P 7 1 14 13 76.7 3.05 1.23 10.2 5.4 4.09
Connor Van Hoose Bucknell P 8 4 12 12 76.3 2.36 1.30 12.7 3.5 3.99
J.P. Stevenson Canisius P 10 1 16 15 95.7 2.54 1.03 8.7 4.4 3.97
Jacob Erickson San Diego State P 5 3 26 4 67.7 3.19 1.15 7.4 7.0 3.90
Ryan Campbell Illinois-Chicago P 8 3 13 13 94.0 1.53 1.10 6.5 3.6 3.82
Ryan Tapani Creighton P 10 1 14 14 94.7 2.38 1.18 9.0 3.8 3.35
Carlos Vega Southeast Missouri State P 8 3 20 9 73.3 2.46 1.24 10.4 3.5 3.33
Allan Winans Campbell P 6 4 14 13 76.0 2.61 1.36 10.5 3.9 3.17
Ryan Miller Clemson P 6 1 24 0 63.7 2.40 1.15 8.2 3.9 3.17
Ben Gross Princeton P 4 5 9 9 52.3 4.47 1.30 8.9 7.4 3.15
Austin Root Sacramento State P 10 3 17 14 93.7 2.98 1.01 6.7 5.0 3.06
Blake Whitney USC Upstate P 5 3 13 13 73.7 2.81 1.28 10.0 3.9 3.00
Chris Williams UCF UT 4 3 15 15 93.0 2.81 1.16 7.6 4.6 3.00
Matt Murphy Rhode Island P 4 3 13 12 74.3 2.79 1.21 6.8 5.1 2.81
Tyler Gray Central Arkansas P 6 2 14 14 97.7 3.32 1.23 10.7 3.7 2.70
Michael Baird Southern Illinois P 5 5 15 15 99.7 3.16 1.27 8.3 4.6 2.61
Chance Kirby UTSA P 7 4 13 13 65.0 2.63 1.22 8.6 3.4 2.54
Matt Pidich Pittsburgh P 6 2 15 15 91.3 3.06 1.32 9.8 3.8 2.52
Robbie Baker Richmond P 9 2 15 15 84.7 2.55 1.23 8.3 3.4 2.47
Tate Budnick Portland UT 5 1 19 0 61.7 3.65 1.30 8.9 4.7 2.43
Brett Daniels North Carolina P 6 0 34 1 57.3 2.36 1.43 10.5 2.8 2.39
Brian Brown NC State P 6 2 15 15 89.7 2.71 1.34 9.0 3.5 2.37
Derek Casey Virginia P 7 4 14 14 95.7 3.48 1.43 10.0 4.2 2.33
Noah Zavolas Harvard P 6 1 11 11 70.0 2.96 1.27 9.9 3.2 2.32
Taso Stathopoulos Rhode Island P 4 1 11 8 55.3 1.95 1.10 5.9 3.0 2.25
Justin Garcia Little Rock P 4 5 36 0 58.7 3.38 1.41 12.3 3.1 2.17
Matt Ball Army P 7 2 16 13 78.3 3.33 1.62 10.1 4.2 2.16
Trent Shelton Cal Poly P 6 3 13 13 83.7 3.34 1.34 7.3 4.5 2.04
Justin McGregor Oral Roberts P 6 1 15 14 88.0 2.56 1.17 8.5 2.6 2.02
Alex Hardy Washington P 4 2 31 0 53.3 2.19 1.14 7.3 2.5 2.02
Jonathan Groff New Mexico State P 11 2 16 15 97.7 2.49 1.29 7.7 2.9 1.92
Jackson Bertsch Liberty P 4 4 21 7 75.3 3.94 1.30 10.3 3.4 1.90
Austin Schulfer Milwaukee P 6 5 14 14 91.3 2.96 1.32 8.6 3.1 1.87
Spencer Stockton Jacksonville P 8 5 16 12 85.7 3.57 1.25 7.9 3.8 1.82
Ryan Simpler East Tennessee State P 7 6 15 15 96.3 5.14 1.64 8.8 6.3 1.80
Jacob Piechota Western Michigan P 3 7 17 13 77.3 3.26 1.28 9.1 3.0 1.80
Jared Skolnicki Kent State P 5 1 14 11 62.3 3.32 1.44 8.2 3.8 1.79
Gabe Kleiman Pennsylvania P 2 6 12 11 70.3 4.10 1.52 8.8 4.6 1.79
Jake Lee Oakland P 7 4 14 13 75.3 4.54 1.51 13.4 3.2 1.71
Devin Sweet North Carolina Central P 5 4 16 14 85.3 4.54 1.42 9.2 4.4 1.71
Peter Strzelecki South Florida P 9 3 14 14 87.3 3.81 1.37 10.0 3.2 1.70
Bryce Hensley UNC Greensboro P 6 2 15 14 83.3 4.21 1.51 8.9 4.3 1.65
Nate Schweers Oakland P 3 3 22 1 47.3 3.42 1.58 9.9 3.3 1.63
Austin Ross Radford P 9 4 17 10 68.7 3.54 1.37 9.0 3.1 1.61
Michael Costanzo Austin Peay P 9 2 15 15 89.7 4.62 1.44 10.4 3.7 1.60
Sean Thompson VCU P 8 2 15 15 92.0 3.03 1.28 7.7 2.9 1.60
Eric Brodkowitz Yale P 6 2 12 12 84.7 2.76 1.03 6.1 2.7 1.60
Alan Strong UNLV P 7 3 15 15 90.0 3.90 1.49 8.6 3.9 1.59
Ethan Evanko Grand Canyon P 5 1 16 9 59.0 3.51 1.53 9.5 3.3 1.59
Naithen Dewsnap CSU Bakersfield P 3 5 23 6 63.3 3.84 1.58 8.5 4.0 1.55
Brandon Shileikis Quinnipiac P 5 6 15 14 85.3 4.22 1.52 7.3 4.9 1.53
Caleb Dougherty Abilene Christian P 2 3 21 4 54.0 4.83 1.35 8.5 4.3 1.52
Sam Shutes Toledo P 10 2 15 15 97.0 2.97 1.28 7.6 2.7 1.51
Jake Mayer Utah Valley P 2 9 14 14 97.3 3.51 1.32 6.5 3.9 1.50
Connor Mitchell Butler P 3 4 14 14 68.7 4.85 1.67 10.5 4.2 1.50
Mario Leon Florida Gulf Coast P 5 6 14 14 82.7 3.05 1.55 9.0 2.8 1.46
Andrew Crane Troy P 7 4 15 15 95.7 2.82 1.32 7.8 2.5 1.45
Travis Moths Tennessee Tech P 13 2 16 15 89.0 3.74 1.35 9.4 2.8 1.45
Eli Kraus Kent State P 9 3 15 14 84.3 4.06 1.40 8.5 3.5 1.44
Will Brand Central Arkansas P 2 5 23 4 67.7 3.46 1.23 7.0 3.1 1.42
John Michael Stephens New Orleans P 3 4 17 13 62.0 4.65 1.53 8.0 4.6 1.41
Josh Green Southeastern Louisiana P 6 6 15 15 91.7 3.14 1.34 5.8 3.7 1.39
Daniel Willcutt Winthrop P 3 7 23 9 75.3 3.58 1.38 7.5 3.3 1.39
Clay Chatham Dartmouth P 2 4 11 11 55.3 5.53 1.63 8.1 5.6 1.38
Thomas Nicoll Florida A&M P 3 8 15 13 84.7 5.00 1.50 9.4 4.0 1.37
George Faue Northern Illinois P 2 7 17 10 66.7 3.92 1.51 7.3 3.9 1.30
Ben Greenberg Fordham P 6 2 15 15 82.3 2.41 1.32 7.1 2.1 1.28
Justin Aungst Saint Joseph's P 2 9 13 13 70.7 3.57 1.46 7.4 3.2 1.26
Colton Pate Jacksonville State P 4 5 19 14 86.3 3.96 1.40 9.6 2.6 1.25
Stevie Ledesma UC Santa Barbara P 7 3 16 11 78.3 2.87 1.24 7.1 2.2 1.22
Matt Simonetti Manhattan P 4 5 16 11 76.7 4.11 1.70 8.9 3.5 1.22
Andrew Ryan UMass Lowell P 5 5 15 15 90.7 3.18 1.39 8.2 2.4 1.22
Trevor Conn Dallas Baptist P 8 1 16 9 64.7 2.92 1.38 7.0 2.5 1.19
Jeb Bargfeldt Miami P 4 5 15 15 101.3 3.29 1.20 6.8 2.5 1.19
Jack Patterson Bryant P 6 3 14 14 82.0 3.84 1.48 11.1 2.2 1.18
Willie Krajnik Saint Peter's P 2 7 13 13 80.7 4.69 1.41 9.4 3.0 1.17
Sean Kamhoot Navy P 5 1 14 14 85.0 2.44 1.45 5.8 2.5 1.13
Brian Rapp Boston College P 3 5 12 12 70.7 3.57 1.29 9.4 2.0 1.13
Joe DeRosa Iona P 3 8 13 13 81.0 3.33 1.44 5.4 3.5 1.09
Jake Walters Alabama P 4 5 14 14 82.0 3.73 1.44 9.0 2.3 1.08
AJ Moore Kennesaw State P 5 3 14 14 80.7 3.24 1.45 9.7 1.9 1.05
Eli Lingos Arizona State P 7 5 15 14 91.7 3.83 1.45 7.1 3.0 1.05
Evan Nations Charleston Southern P 1 3 16 12 54.7 4.28 1.54 6.1 4.1 1.05
Christian Vann Mercer P 5 3 22 11 68.7 3.93 1.57 10.9 2.1 1.03
Cody Eckerson Niagara P 4 5 14 14 74.3 4.84 1.65 10.5 2.8 1.02
Ryan Doty Villanova P 2 9 11 11 66.0 4.23 1.47 8.6 2.6 1.00

Feel free to ask any questions in the comments.

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