Overriding Assumption for Mock Draft
We are working with the real-world Rockies organization as of May 2018 - the same MLBers, MiLBers, and climatic challenges.
.
State of the Organization: Pitchers
The Rockies have assembled a relatively deep group of longer-term-controllable younger rotation options who have at least some experience as an MLB SP including: Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Jeff Hoffman. The primary concern would be that Gray seems to be the lone one of that crowd who would conform to a front half of a rotation profile.
The Rockies were chosen for this exercise owing to that they were the only organization to place zero pitchers within the reillocity preseason Top 150 Pitching Prospects. Sam Howard, Ryan Castellani, and Peter Lambert were the best candidates, and Lambert may be looking at a Top 100 placement upon mid-season re-ranking if his early success in AA play were to continue. For as excellently as the Rockies did in choosing Anderson ('11 1st round, 20th Overall), Gray ('13 1st round, 3rd Overall), and Freeland ('14 1st round, 8th Overall) and subsequently developing them into very viable MLB starters their more recent pitching draftees have not panned out well so far:
'15: 1-27 Mike Nikorak, 2-44 Peter Lambert, 3-77 Javier Medina, 4-107 David Hill, ...
'16: 1-4 Riley Pint, 1-38 Robert Tyler, 2-45 Ben Bowden, ... (this lot rather stings given the alternatives passed on)
'17 2-70 Tommy Doyle, 3-86 Will Gaddis, 4-116 Pearson McMahan ...
With Coors Field's elevation all but precluding the Rockies from signing premium free agent starting pitchers (at any price), the Rockies would be one of the organizations who can least afford to swing and miss when choosing pitchers in the earliest few rounds of the draft. Meanwhile the very offense-skewed domestic venues where the Rockies field MiLB affiliates do not make for the most nurturing environments in which to develop pitching prep draftees or international signees. And that also stands to limit how much trade value the Rockies can milk out of those same young hurlers when looking to deal for competent to better SP to fill out their MLB rotation.
NCAA relief prospects do not stand to garner much attention from the organization until Round 5 or later. Beyond that translation of their skills to the professional ranks is often volatile, the Rockies have enjoyed success at bringing dependable relievers into the MLB bullpen via other routes.
.
State of the Organization: Position Players
The recently-extended Charlie Blackmon anchors the MLB core of everyday players with superstar Nolan Arenado under control for one more season after this one. DJ LeMahieu is slated to hit free agency this offseason (Extension? Qualifying offer?). Trevor Story can be controlled through 2021. Perhaps at least 2 of David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, and Ryan McMahon stand to work their way into regular MLB duty over the next year of play.
The Rockies seem to have done better in the last 3 drafts with position player selections:
'15: 1-3 Brendan Rodgers, 1-38 Tyler Nevin, 7-197 Brian Mundell, ...
'16: 3-81 Garrett Hampson, 4-110 Colton Welker, ...
'17 2-48 Ryan Vilade, 6-176 Chad Spanberger, 8-236 Brett Boswell ...
With the offense-skewed homeparks inevitably inflating hitting/slugging performances, prep selections who hit from the get-go (the first domestic stop being high-altitude Grand Junction) stand to be one of the better trade chips that the Rockies can use to obtain semi-proven MiLB SP prospects and proven MLB SP rentals to near-rentals.
Catching would be one of the weaker areas of the organization with Tom Murphy looking like the lone hope for developing a semi-regular MLB catcher internally as of today. Outfielding depth skews somewhat thin, too.
.
2018 Draft Positions and Slot Values for the Rockies
1-22: $2,912,300
1CBA-42: $1,704,000
2CP-76: $787,200
3-96: $581,900
4-126: $434,700
5-156: $323,800; 6-186: $249,600; 7-216: $195,700; 8-246: $160,700; 9-276: $145,900; 10-306: $138,100
There is enough money here to pick 2 more well-regarded high schoolers within the 1st 3 selections were the draft to play out in a fashion that made such a scenario feasible.
.
Preferred Draft Strategy for Rounds 1 through 10
1. Be very, very, very meticulous and picky when selecting prep pitchers in the first 3 rounds. When in doubt, throw them out.
2. Stick with key FaBIO principles when evaluating NCAA SP - prioritize K/batted-ball-profile-rooted out-generation skills that project to translate to professional play while paying close attention to how the pitcher has fared against opposite-handed batters.
3. Prep position players who are better-positioned to hit from day one will deliver more immediate value to the organization than will toolsier sorts who would stand to require more prolonged, slower-paced development.
4. Target catchers and outfielders with above-average defensive chops at strategic spots within the 11 selections.
.
The Road Ahead
Our analytics department is projected to have FaBIO pitching and batting ratings finalized on every NCAA Division 1 player during the week before the mock draft. In more prospect-laden conferences, offensive running analyses may also be conducted. In advance of that very busy final week, a major goal is to filter out about a half dozen high school prospects who are prime candidates for Day 1 to early Day 2 selection (any Rockies rooters who wish to "scout" this niche are welcome to contribute their input into this mock draft exercise).
.
